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Stress, Fear, and Panic:Decision-Making in Dynamic,
High-Risk Environments
Marc Lusk
Amarillo Fire Department
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“… a better understanding
of how
stress, fear, and panic
combine to erode rational thinking” - Putnam
Presentation Goal:
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The Precipitation:
“The reality of our [fire service] culture
is very simple…
we hire aggressive firefighters…”
- Kreis
“I knew I was in trouble.
I thought
about using my radio,
but I thought,
I found my way in;
I can find my way out.”- Hospitalized Seattle Firefighter
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“…numerous people who were not moving
and were still watching the stage”
- Interviewed Survivor
Civilian Reactions:
Station Nightclub Fire
:54 seconds -
Cameraman leaves Lobby
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Wildland FF Reactions:
“…the twelve firefighters
did not at first hike
at maximum speed….
everyone failed to recognize
early enough
the danger of the situation.”- Maclean
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Factors Affecting Decisions:
1. Risk perception
2. Stressors
3. Cognitive Biases
4. Affect Heuristics (Emotions)
5. Experience
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Risk Propensity:
Self-control
Danger-seeking
Energy
Impulsiveness
Invincibility
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Risk Perception :
“Each decision maker has…
a unique set
of resulting behaviors”
- Williams
900 ft.
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Risk Perception :Invincibility -
A Wonderful Thing
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“… keep a 2-mile
"buffer zone"
between you and
the storm.”- NWS
Risk Perception :
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How many
telephone posts
are there in two
miles?
Risk Perception :
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1. Commercial Pilots: 27% of accidents
2. Ambulance Drivers: Black boxes
3. Firefighters: More frequent and severe injuries
Violations Will Occur:
Risk vs. Policy:
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Factors Affecting Decisions:
1. Risk perception
2. Stressors
3. Cognitive Biases
4. Affect Heuristics (Emotions)
5. Experience
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1) Multiple Info Sources
2) Conflicting Info
Stressors:
http://sanderling.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/uss_vincennes2.jpg
USS Vincennes
3) Rapidly Evolving Situation
4) Time Pressure
5) Threat
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Complex decisions
must be made despite
time pressure,
uncertainty,
external threat,
and physical hardships.
O’Fallon,
Illinois
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1. Reduce opportunity to gather information
Police Officer: Shoot/No Shoot Situation
2. Disrupt working memory
My Mother-In-Law
3. Distract attention from the operational goals
A-10 and F-16 Mishaps
Stressors:
Stressors Affect Decisions:
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Factors Affecting Decisions:
1. Risk perception
2. Stressors
3. Cognitive Biases
4. Affect Heuristics (Emotions)
5. Experience
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Crowded rooms during Decision-Making
Presentations – The Exits
Airline Passengers – The Exits
Nuclear Power Plant Operators – Procedures
Availability Bias:
Recollection of Information:
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Representativeness Bias:
Categorizing:Underground Miners
“… did not select the
most efficient strategy
- they chose further
information over
action”
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Representativeness Bias:
Does a Near-miss
make a person
more cautious
or
less cautious
the next time?
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Representativeness Bias:
Near-Misses:
Mars Rover Operators
“… categorized the
current [similar]
circumstances as being
survivable”
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Anchor and Adjustment Bias:
Making an Initial Decision and Sticking To It :
Air Florida Flight 90
- 78 fatalities
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Overconfidence Biases:
Illusory Optimism
Invulnerability
Illusion
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Framing Bias:
1. Complacency
7 of 9 mishaps involving C-130 aircraft
2. Expectations
USS Vincennes – gunboat skirmishes
3. Commercial Pilots
Keeping schedules vs. pre-flight checklist
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Firefighters Are Human Too:
“I knew I was in trouble.
I thought about using my radio,
but I thought, I found my way in;
I can find my way out.”- Seattle
Firefighter
Representativeness
Anchor and Adjustment
Illusory Optimism
Invulnerability Illusion
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People Are Human Too:
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Factors Affecting Decisions:
1. Risk perception
2. Stressors
3. Cognitive Biases
4. Emotions
5. Experience
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Emotional Reactions:
1. Situations are felt to be Good or Bad
2. Denial
3. Anxiety
A generalized condition w/o direct trigger
4. Panic:
A sudden fear which dominates/replaces thinking
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Physical Reactions:
1. Pupils dilate
2. Muscles tighten
3. Heart-rate/Breathing
increases
4. Blood is shunted
Oxygen/Nutrients
Heat (Perspiration)“Fight or Flight”
Response
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Impairments:
1. Fine Motor Skills
2. Temporal Distortion
3. Memory Disruption
4. Channeled Attention
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Emotional Reaction:
MS Estonia
“People lose their ability to make
decisions.
They turn into statues.”
- Sherwood
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Emotions:
"I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer."
--- Frank Herbert, Dune
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A Walk
in the
Woods
Fear and the Amygdala:
1. Thalamic Pathway The Low Road
2. Cortical Pathway The High Road
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Leach’s “Theory of 10-80-10”
10% will react Rationally
Relatively Calm
Decision-making is sharp and focused
Able to prioritize, plan, and take action
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Leach’s “Theory of 10-80-10”
80% will be “Stunned and Bewildered”
Behavior is mechanical, reflexive
Reasoning is significantly impaired
Perceptual narrowing (tunnel vision)
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Leach’s “Theory of 10-80-10”
10% will react Inappropriately:
Loss of behavioral control
Decision-making is counterproductive
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Factors Affecting Decisions:
1. Risk perception
2. Stressors
3. Cognitive Biases
4. Emotions
5. Experience
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Recognition-Primed Decision-Making:
1. Naturalistic
2. Efficiency
3. Trigger points
4. Reduces
cognitive load
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Recognition-Primed Decision-Making:
The Problem is -
How many times
do we experience
a true emergency?Kevin Green/News-Journal Photo
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Flipping the Switch:
Theory of 10/80/10:
Most will be stunned
Temporary effect
Seek calmness
Plan for emergencies
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Experience:
Novices have difficulty gathering, integrating, and
understanding informational cues
Improves knowledge of performance needed
Develops a better understanding of how stressors,
biases, and emotions impact decisions
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Education:
“You rarely get someone
to jump a skill level
by teaching more facts and rules….
we cannot expect to grow
instant experts ”
- Williams
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Training:
“familiarity with the criterion environment….effective task performanceunder stress conditions”
- Driskell and Johnston
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Experience:
Variety of experience
is more important
than simple years of service.
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Mentoring:
“to enhance the
development of
perceptual expertise
in the trainees” - Klein
Train Your Mentors:
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Leadership:
“…individuals respond well
to a leader, however, if leadership is lacking,people tend to become
confused.”
- Kowalski-Trakofler and Vaught.MS Estonia
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Risk perception can be modified,
Stressors can be mitigated,
Biases can be minimized,
Emotions can be mastered.
Training and Experience:
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Questions?
Your Turn: