strategic swing trading

98
Timothy Morge, CTA and President Blackthorne Capital, Inc. www.marketgeometry.com www.medianline.com Strategic Swing Trading - Mapping and Framing the Metals Markets Internet Presentation Sponsored by Interactive Brokers September 13, 2012

Upload: builiem

Post on 03-Jan-2017

310 views

Category:

Documents


9 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Strategic Swing Trading

Timothy Morge, CTA and President Blackthorne Capital, Inc.

www.marketgeometry.com www.medianline.com

Strategic Swing Trading - Mapping and Framing the Metals Markets

Internet Presentation Sponsored by Interactive Brokers September 13, 2012

Page 2: Strategic Swing Trading

All Material and Images are the Property of Timothy Morge and are protected under the United States and International Copyright Laws.

©Timothy Morge 1991-2012

Page 3: Strategic Swing Trading

FOREX and Futures Risk DisclaimerTrading in the off exchange retail foreign currency market or futures markets is one of the riskiest forms of investments available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Nothing in this presentation is a recommendation to buy or sell currencies or futures and Timothy Morge is not liable for any loss or damage, including without limitation, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of Timothy Morge’s tools or reliance on such information. ResultsPast performance does not guarantee future results.This is one persons experience, your experience may differ.Results are not guaranteed, individual experiences may vary.Market VolatilityIn volatile market conditions, substantial losses may occur.In volatile market conditions, orders may not be filled as placed.LeverageThe leveraged nature of FX trading and Futures trading means that any market movement will have an equally proportional effect on your deposited funds. This may work against you as well as for you. The possibility exists that you could sustain a total loss of initial margin funds and be required to deposit additional funds to maintain your position. If you fail to meet any margin call within the time prescribed, your position will be liquidated and you will be responsible for any resulting losses.

Page 4: Strategic Swing Trading

This webcast is dedicated to my two earliestmentors: Ben, a family friend, a very largespeculator in the metals markets and the man thatstarted my trading career; and Amos Hostetter, thefinest ‘Campaign Trader’ in the past three hundredyears, the Co-Founder of Commodities Corporation,a good friend and my teacher.

Page 5: Strategic Swing Trading

Buy and Hold? – OR –

Strategic Swing Trading

Page 6: Strategic Swing Trading

The Silver Campaign: Thirty Three Years Later

It is important to note: These are continuous Silver Futures charts, put together using various data sources. The goal was give you, the viewer, a clear sense of Price Action – Bar By Bar – and we realize the actual Prices versus those seen here on the Price Scales may vary dramatically!

Page 7: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 8: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 9: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 10: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 11: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 12: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 13: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 14: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 15: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 16: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 17: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 18: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 19: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 20: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 21: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 22: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 23: Strategic Swing Trading

If It’s Working in Silver, Why Not Add Some Gold?

It is important to note: These are continuous Gold Futures charts, put together using various data sources. The goal is to give you, the viewer, a clear sense of Price Action – Bar By Bar – and we realize the actual Prices versus those seen here on the Price Scales may vary dramatically!

Page 24: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 25: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 26: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 27: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 28: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 29: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 30: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 31: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 32: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 33: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 34: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 35: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 36: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 37: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 38: Strategic Swing Trading

The News is Out! Time Magazine Runs a Cover Story on the ‘Corner Posse’! Everyone

Begins to Bet on Higher Precious Metals!

Page 39: Strategic Swing Trading

Let’s Follow Gold First!

It is important to note: These are continuous Gold Futures charts, put together using various data sources. The goal is to give you, the viewer, a clear sense of Price Action – Bar By Bar – and we realize the actual Prices versus those seen here on the Price Scales may vary dramatically!

Page 40: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 41: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 42: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 43: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 44: Strategic Swing Trading

Now Let’s Finish Out Silver!

It is important to note: These are continuous Gold Futures charts, put together using various data sources. The goal is to give you, the viewer, a clear sense of Price Action – Bar By Bar – and we realize the actual Prices versus those seen here on the Price Scales may vary dramatically!

Page 45: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 46: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 47: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 48: Strategic Swing Trading

I Liquidated My Positions ‘At The Market’.

How did Silver and Gold React to ‘Liquidation Only’ Rules?

Page 49: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 50: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 51: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 52: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 53: Strategic Swing Trading

Let me Take a Breath, Please.

Page 54: Strategic Swing Trading

Let Me Revisit a Very Profitable Gold Trade and a Potential Buy Area We Mapped Out Here Live Last Year. Buy and Hold? – Or – Strategic Swing Trading?

Page 55: Strategic Swing Trading

Understanding the Language of Price: A Study of the Weekly COMEX Gold Futures Contract

Page 56: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 57: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 58: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 59: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 60: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 61: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 62: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 63: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 64: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 65: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 66: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 67: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 68: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 69: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 70: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 71: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 72: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 73: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 74: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 75: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 76: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 77: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 78: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 79: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 80: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 81: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 82: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 83: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 84: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 85: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 86: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 87: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 88: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 89: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 90: Strategic Swing Trading

Those charts were from an IB Presentation last year. We mapped out the Profit Target Live and also mapped out the next buying opportunity – which recently came into play – a year after we made this Market Map Live! Let’s see how our buy area worked.

Page 91: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 92: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 93: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 94: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 95: Strategic Swing Trading
Page 96: Strategic Swing Trading

Thank You for taking the time to attend this session. Questions?

“Master your tools, master yourself.”®Timothy Morge

www.marketgeometry.com www.medianline.com

Page 97: Strategic Swing Trading

© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved

Access a world of market opportunity.

Diversify and take advantage of current market opportunities with contracts covering all major asset classes including forex, stock indexes, agricultural commodities, energy, metals and interest rates.

Trade CME Group markets:

•Equivalent market exposure with lower capital requirements

•No uptick rule or short selling restrictions

•Around the clock markets

•Financial safeguards of a regulated exchange

The CME Group is a trademark of CME Group Inc. The Globe Logo, CME and Globex are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. The Chicago Board of Trade® are trademarks of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago. NYMEX is a registered trademark of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

Page 98: Strategic Swing Trading

© 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved

Precious Base Ferrous Precious

Gold Futures and Options

Silver Futures and Options

Platinum Futures and Options

Palladium Futures and Options

Gold VIX Futures and Options

miNY Gold Futures

miNY Silver Futures

E-micro Gold Futures

Cleared OTC London Gold Forwards

BaseCopper Futures and Options

E-mini Copper Futures

Copper Calendar Swaps

Copper Average Price Options

Aluminum MW US Premium

FerrousHot Rolled Coil Steel Futures and Options

Iron Ore (TSI) Futures and Options

Iron Ore (Platts) Futures and Options

Ferrous Scrap, CFR Turkey Futures

European Hot Rolled Coil Steel Futures

Steel Billet, FOB Black Sea Futures

CME Group Metals Product Categorieswww.cmegroup.com/metals

98