strategic implications of demographic change in asia · pdf filestrategic implications of...

Strategic Implications of

Demographic Change in AsiaAnalysis based on the 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects

Presentation at the U.S. Naval War College, Newport, RI, 25 May 2012

Gerhard K. Heilig

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)Population Division - Population Estimates and Projections Section

www.unpopulation.org

Updated: 6 July 2012

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion

The author is Chief of the Population Estimates and Projections Section at the United Nations Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA).

The presentation was given at the conference on “Demographic Decline in Asia and the Future of Regional Security” at the U.S. Naval War College, 25-26 May, 2012, Newport, RI

Disclaimer:

The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations. The presentation’s content has not been formally edited and cleared by the United Nations. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this presentation do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning

the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion

0Population and Security Risks: Popular arguments

population growth leads to environmental degradation, land-shortage, or hunger, which triggers conflict over scarce resources

excess of boys over girls (“Asia’s male preference”) creates male gangs who are more willing to go to war

young populations have more conflicts: “youthful hormones” trigger aggression; ageing populations are more “peaceful”;

fertility decline reduces “surplus sons” that could be more easily acceptable (conflict reduction of China’s “single child policy”)

population decline in rich societies invites aggression and creates “undefended wealth”

Demography might affect security because …

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion

0Population and Security Risks

population growth leads to environmental degradation, land-shortage, or hunger, which triggers conflict over scarce resources

excess of boys over girls (“Asia’s male preference”) creates male gangs who are more willing to go to war

young populations have more conflicts: “youthful hormones” trigger aggression; ageing populations are more “peaceful”;

fertility decline reduces “surplus sons” that could be more easily acceptable (conflict reduction of China’s single child policy)

population decline in rich societies invites aggression and creates “undefended wealth”

Demography might affect security because …

These arguments are all questionable!

Demography can affect how governments respond to conflicts –

how they shape conflicts. Demography usually does not explain

why and when conflicts arise.

The following model shows that a country’s demographic situation

is only one of many context factors that may shape a conflict.

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion

0Population and (International) Conflict

Gain or preserve a

position of power(political superiority)

DOMINANCE

Gain or preserve

wealth (economic

advantage)

GREED

Ideological, religious

or ethical fanatismRAGE

Adaptation

“Diplomacy”Goal Attainment

“War”

Integration

“Institutionalization”Latency

“Cultural Infiltration”

1. Population: Size / Distribution / Concentration / Structure2. Geography / Natural Environment: Location / Resources 3. Economic System: Market / Command & Control / Mixed4. Political System: Democracy / Gerontocracy / Dictatorship

Context

Factors

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion

0Population and Conflict: A basic model

Ultimate drivers (inner circles in previous slide): desire to gain or preserve a position of power / dominance

desire to gain or preserve an economic advantage

desire to gain dominance with, or preserve, particular ideas(political or economic ideology, ethnic identity, religious belief)

Principal types of response: Adaptation: Diplomacy, contain conflict by adjusting to the situation

Goal Attainment: Wage war (only chose, when sure to win!); eliminate threat

Integration: “Institutionalize” adverse relationship (Example: “Cold War”)

Latency: Infiltrate culture of adversary; fight “from within”; win “cold war” with “blue jeans and rock music”, convince adversary that your values are better

Context factors:Population: Size, (global) distribution, concentration (urbanization), (age) structure

Geography / Natural Environment: Location / topography / climate / natural resources

Economic System: Market, command & control, mixed, integration into global economy

Political System: Democracy / gerontocracy / dictatorship; stable / vulnerable

To better understand the relationship between population and conflict it is useful to distinguish (at least) three layers:

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion

0Population and Conflict

There is little evidence that demographic factors trigger

conflicts, but it is quite certain that they can shape the way how conflicts are carried out by adversaries.

Four demographic characteristics (population size, global population balance, urbanization, and population

age structure) are most relevant in that context.

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion

Absolute numbers (population size)

Distribution (global balance)

Concentration (urbanization)

Structure (population ageing)

1

2

3

How does Demography shape conflicts?

4

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion

1Numbers


Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

Total Population by Variant, 1950-2100

27 Billion

10 Billion

16 Billion

6 Billion

Bill

ion

s

3

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion


Change in Population: 1950-2100 (millions) 1

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion

1Change in Population: 2010-2100 (millions)


Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion


Total Population: 1950-2100 (millions) 1

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion

have a higher potential for (economic, political and military)

supremacy: population-rich countries can become economic, political or military super-powers with the right economic, political and military development strategySmall countries will never become major political, economic or military players, no matter what they do.

Scale matters! Nigeria, Brazil or Pakistan could become major (economic and military) powers in the future.

information gathering will likely be modified for very populous adversaries: intelligence will be more technology-oriented, needs better raster and better analytics to avoid information overload

conflict strategy will likely be more diversity-conscious: large populations are usually much less homogenous than small nations

Very large populations (hundreds of millions of people) …

How does Population Size shape conflicts? 1

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion

2Distribution (global)


Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion


Total Population by Major Area, 1950-2100

9.1%

35.3%

21.6%

6.7%

2

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion

Changes in world population 2

21.6% 6.7%Europe

9.1% 35.3%Africa

Share of world population (percent)

1950 2100


Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion

affect military technology: more maritime technology, long-distance capabilities, climate-adjusted capabilities (deserts)

affect military supply logistics: long-distance transport, difficult terrain, lacking infrastructure

create language barriers: Asia and Africa combined have hundreds of languages

Conflicts are where the people are or where they have their interests (conflicts will likely move to Asia and Africa)

The global shift of population centers to Asia and Africa will …

How does Population Distribution shape conflicts? 1

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion

3Concentration


Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012): World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York

Urban Population Change: 2010 - 2100 3

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion

Urban Concentration 3


Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012): World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York

World: Mega-Cities with 10+ Million Inhabitants

Number

3

Population (millions)

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion

affect military technology: urban combat, body protection, communication capabilities

Urbanization increases possibility of spontaneous protests, lawlessness, violent loitering: urban people don’t have to go far to join a crowd (peasants have to go on a “long march” in a conflict)

Urbanization increases risk of “lonely wolf” attacks: it is easier to “disappear” in a 20-million mega-city than in a sparsely populated rural area

Casualties could be enormous of one single successful attack

Urbanization creates multiple vulnerabilities (economic assets, energy and water supply, communication, transportation infrastructure)

The increasing concentration of people in urban areas will…

How does Population Concentration shape conflicts? 3

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion

4Structure


Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion


Total Population by Age Groups, 1950-2100M

illio

ns

3

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion


Population Age 0-14 by Major Area, 1950-2100M

illio

ns

3

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion


“Most-Active” Population Age 20-34 Yearsp

erce

nt

of

tota

l po

pu

lati

on

Window

of economic

opportunity

3

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion


Population Age 50+ Yearsp

erce

nt

of

tota

l po

pu

lati

on

PopulationAgeing

3

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion


Population Age 0-19 and 50+ Years

Age 0-19 Age 50+

The world is ageing!

50+ population will increase from 1.4 to 4 billion

3

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion

Population Dynamics, 1950-2050 (based on WPP2006) 3


Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion

Economic Impact of Ageing

“Unicharm Corp.’s sales of adult diapers in Japan exceeded those for babies for the first time last year.”

Yuki Yamaguchi, 9 May, 2012: Elderly at Records Spurs Japan Stores Chase $1.4 Trillion. Bloomberg Businessweek

3

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion

affect the size and structure of the military: professional instead of draft army, lack of young men, more women in the military

Older populations (= military forces) will likely use advanced

technology to avoid person to person combat; drones

Hot conflicts will likely flare up in Africa: very young, ethnically diverse populations increasingly concentrated in urban areas

“Geriatric peace” and “conflicts invited by unprotected wealth”

are equally likely in “very old” (and very wealthy) populations such as in Europe

Population ageing in Europe, America and especially in Asia will …

How does Population Structure shape conflicts? 3

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

Dep

artm

ent

of E

cono

mic

and

Soc

ial A

ffairs

–P

opul

atio

n D

ivis

ion

Thank You !

www.unpopulation.org

strategic implications of demographic change in asia · pdf filestrategic implications of...

Documents