steve d. pryor president - refining and supply, exxon mobil corporation refining conference 06...
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Steve D. PryorPresident - Refining and Supply, Exxon Mobil Corporation
Refining Conference 06Houston - November 3, 2006
Steve D. PryorPresident - Refining and Supply, Exxon Mobil Corporation
Refining Conference 06Houston - November 3, 2006
Competitive Challenges facing Gulf Coast Refining within a Resilient Global IndustryCompetitive Challenges facing Gulf Coast Refining within a Resilient Global Industry
Cautionary StatementForward-Looking Statements. Outlooks, projections, estimates, targets, and business plans
in this presentation are forward-looking statements. Actual future results, including demand
growth and mix; vehicle fleet composition; refinery additions and capacity increases; project
plans, timing, and costs; efficiency and cost improvements; and the impact of technology
could differ materially due to a number of factors. These include changes in long-term oil or
gas prices or other market conditions affecting the oil and gas industries, including changes
in refining or marketing margins; severe weather events; war and other political or security
disturbances; changes in law or government regulation; the outcome of commercial
negotiations; the actions of competitors; unexpected technological developments; the
occurrence and duration of economic recessions; and other factors discussed here and
under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investor Information section of
our website at www.exxonmobil.com.
Frequently Used Terms. For definitions and additional information regarding return on
capital employed, normalized earnings (also referred to as operating earnings), cash flow
from operations and asset sales (also referred to as operating cash flow), and other terms
used in this presentation, including information required by SEC Regulation G, see the
“Frequently Used Terms”, quarterly reports on form 8-K regarding results of operations and
financial condition, and other material posted on our website. The Financial and Operating
Review on our website also shows ExxonMobil's net interest in specific projects.
ExxonMobil’s Global Refining Circuit
Americas16 Refineries
Europe/AME15 Refineries
Asia-Pacific11 Refineries
• Largest Global Refiner
• Largest Lubes Basestock Supplier
• Largest Global Producer of Polyolefins, Benzene & Paraxylene
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2030
ExxonMobil’s Outlook for Energy to 2030
Liquids
Gas
Coal
Other
MBDOEMBDOE • Energy demand will increase about 60% versus 2000– Driven by population growth and economic progress
• Liquids, gas and coal remain predominant− Fuel shares essentially unchanged
• Energy resources are adequate to sustain growth– Large scale investments required in a timely manner– Energy interdependence growing
• Technology remains vital to meeting energy
challenges– Increase energy efficiency and mitigate CO2 emissions – Expand available energy resources
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 2005 2030
Global Energy Demand Grows
Primary Energy
1.6%
1.6%
1.4%
1.7%
1.5%
Liquids
Gas
Coal
Other
MBDOE
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1980 2005 2030
Wind & Solar
10.5%
12.5%
8.4%
Wind
Solar
MBDOEAverage Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980 2005 2030
Other Energy
1.5%
1.0%
2.2%
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass / Other
MBDOE
Wind & Solar 10.5%
1.4%
0
1
10
100
1000
100 1000 10000 100000
ChinaChina
South KoreaSouth Korea
U.S.U.S.
0
1
10
100
1000
100 1000 10000 100000
ChinaChina
South KoreaSouth Korea
U.S.U.S.
0
1
10
100
1000
100 1000 10000 100000
Light Duty Vehicle Trends
Historical Vehicle Penetration
Vehicles per 1000 people
Typical Saturation Profile
Income per capita
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
2000 2010 2020 2030
Global Fleet
Millions
Non-OECD
OECD
2.1%
Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030
1.0%
5.1%
Trade Flows Balance Supply & DemandMBD
Source: IEA / EM Estimates
0
10
20
C le a n P ro d u c ts P ro d u c tio n C a p a c ity De ma n d
0
10
20
C P C a p a c ity De ma n d
0
10
20
C P C a p a c ity De ma n d
0
10
20
C P C a p a c ity De ma n d
0
10
20
C P C a p a c ity De ma n d
0
10
20
C P C a p a c ity De ma n d
North America
South America
Western Europe
Africa/Middle East
Eastern Europe/FSU
Asia Pacific
Light Products Capacity
Light Products Demand
MBD
MBDMBD
Trade Flows
0
40
80
Total World
Worldwide
MBD
Refining Capacity Growing
Global Distillation
• Refining capacity up
1.5% – 2.3% per year
• Growth via new builds
and debottlenecks
0
3
6
9
12
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
ROW
NA
MBD
High Case
(cumulative)
U.S. Gasoline Supply & Demand
0
100
200
300
400
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006YTD
Num
ber
of r
efin
erie
s
0
2
4
6
8
10
Gas
olin
e, M
BD
Number of refineries
Gasoline Output, MBD
Gasoline Demand, MBD
Cooperation to Achieve Common Goals
Regional NOx Emission Reductions
• Air quality improvement is the
benchmark
– Emissions lowered 48%
– GDP up 176%
– Vehicle miles up 155%
– Energy up 45%
• Petroleum industry is a key
stakeholder
– Cleaner/alternative fuels
– Emission reductions
– Energy efficiency
176% 155% 45% -25% -54%
GD
P VM
T EN
ER
GY N
Ox V
OC
GROWTH AND EMISSIONS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Highway gasoline
Highway diesel
Non-road diesel
Other mobile sources
MOBILE SOURCE REDUCTIONS
Source: EPA
Houston is Leading the Way
• Significant emission
reductions
• Leader in science-based air
quality solutions
– Cost-effective policies
critical for continued
economic growth
• University of Houston plays
a key role
2000 2007
Industry On-road Off-road Natural
Houston NOx Emissions (tonnes/day)500
400
300
200
100
0
Source: TCEQ
0
2
4
6
8
10
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Industry Margins – Long-term Perspective
2006 $/bbl
GlobalComposite
Refining Gross Margins
Higher Value Products
Raw Material Flexibility
Lower Costs
RawMaterials
Costs
Operating CostsOperating Costs
Net Margin
‘Self-Help’ Margin Levers
Downstream Revenue, $
Current
Steve D. PryorPresident - Refining and Supply, Exxon Mobil Corporation
Refining Conference 06Houston - November 3, 2006
Steve D. PryorPresident - Refining and Supply, Exxon Mobil Corporation
Refining Conference 06Houston - November 3, 2006
Competitive Challenges facing Gulf Coast Refining within a Resilient Global IndustryCompetitive Challenges facing Gulf Coast Refining within a Resilient Global Industry