steering committee meeting #2
DESCRIPTION
August 3, 2011. Steering committee meeting #2. Introductions Status Reports Demographics Presentation Community Engagement—Plan Norwalk by MindMixer Project Team—City Update Steering Committee Discussion Next Meeting Adjourn . Meeting agenda. Status report. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
August 3, 2011
STEERING COMMITTEE MEETING #2
MEETING AGENDA1. Introductions2. Status Reports3. Demographics Presentation4. Community Engagement—Plan Norwalk by
MindMixer5. Project Team—City Update6. Steering Committee Discussion7. Next Meeting8. Adjourn
STATUS REPORT
The Foundation for the Comprehensive Plan
LOCAL DEMOGRAPHICS
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES Population Projections Population Characteristics Demographic Changes Housing Characteristics Housing Demand Future Land Use Demand
LOCAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS Population is a major component in the
Comprehensive Plan It’s a building block for many land use estimates
Residential units Commercial and office square footage Industrial acres
LOCAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS The primary source for demographic
data for Plan Norwalk is the U.S. Census Bureau, ESRI Business Analyst, CBRE Market Analysis
Since 1980, Norwalk has increased its population by 276.5% from 2,376 to 8,945
Norwalk has been the fastest growing city in Warren County during the same time period
LOCAL POPULATION PROJECTION Various Methodologies
Trend line analysis 1960 to 2010 1970 to 2010 1980 to 2010 2000 to 2010
Cohort survival analysis
LOCAL POPULATION PROJECTION
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1,328 1,745 2,6765,726 6,884
8,94511,623
15,103
19,625
Norwalk Population Estimate 1
LOCAL POPULATION PROJECTIONSPopulation Estimate 1 What do the numbers tell us?
Additional 10,680 people over 30 years 8,945 in 2010 growing to 19,625 in 2040
Growth rate: 119% total growth over 30 years
LOCAL POPULATION PROJECTION
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,000
1,328 1,745 2,676 5,726 6,884 8,94515,930
28,370
50,523
Norwalk Population Estimate 2
LOCAL POPULATION PROJECTIONSPopulation Estimate 2 What do the numbers tell us?
Additional 41,578 people over 30 years 8,945 in 2010 growing to 50,523 in 2040
Growth rate: 465% total growth over 30 years
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGESNATIONAL TRENDS AND LOCAL
COMPARISONS
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGESNationally, baby boomers are still
relevant! Born between 1946 and 1964 Very large age cohort that impacts
community (60M in that age group nationally)
Some are entering retirement age now Future impacts on housing,
land use, transportation and economy
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGESGeneration Y – The Boomer babies!
Born between 1982 and 1995 Larger generation (80M vs. 60M) nationally
than Baby Boomers Different preferences Plugged-in generation Impacts on housing choices, land
use, transportation and economy
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGESGeneration X – the in-between
generation Born between 1965 and 1976 Smaller generation nationally than Baby
Boomers (51M vs. 60M) The suburban generation; the ‘latchkey’
kids First multi-cultural
generation Highly mobile workforce
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGESNorwalk demographics differ from national trends
2010 population characteristics Age 0 – 14 2,244 or 25.1% Gen Y 1,686 or 18.9% Gen X 2,027 or 22.7% Baby Boomers 2,206 or 24.6% Age 65+ 782 or 8.7%
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGESNorwalk demographics differ from national trends Small growth in population 65 and older
Norwalk population over 65 is 8.7% (2010) US population over 65 is 13.03% (2010)
Young children (age 0 – 14) make up largest population segment; 25.1%
Children age 0 – 18 make over 30% of Norwalk’s population
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGESAverage age is increasing in Norwalk, similar to national trend 32.8 years in 2000 34.3 years in 2010
IMPACTS ON HOUSING DEMANDHOUSING TRENDS AND DEMANDS
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES Household size is decreasing Norwalk,
similar to national trend 2.88 in 2000 2.70 in 2010
Norwalk has larger HH size than surrounding communities and State of Iowa in 2010 2.41 in Iowa 2.32 in West Des Moines 2.58 in Ankeny
IMPACTS ON HOUSING DEMAND Residential unit demand based on
population estimate 1 4,151 residential units 3,118 owner occupied 1,033 rental
IMPACTS ON HOUSING DEMAND Residential unit demand based on
population estimate 2 16,162 residential units 12,139 owner occupied 4,023 rental
IMPACTS ON HOUSING DEMAND Types of housing products
Single family Accessory dwelling unites Multi-family Mixed use Assisted living
IMPACTS ON HOUSING DEMAND
IMPACTS ON HOUSING DEMAND
IMPACTS ON HOUSING
IMPACTS ON HOUSING
IMPACTS ON HOUSING
IMPACTS ON HOUSING DEMAND Plan Norwalk assumptions
Existing building trends and supply 71% single family and 21% multi-family 76% owner occupied and 24% rental
Should goals for single family and multi-family change in the future?
What will market demand be for owner occupied versus rental?
IMPACTS ON HOUSING DEMAND 2010 housing unit supply
360 +/- approved units; sf and mf 4 year supply based on population
projection 1 Existing supply will only meet a small
portion of 2040 demand!
IMPACTS ON LAND CONSUMPTION
ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT LAND USE Projected Land Use by
Classification (by percentage) Residential 30.0% Commercial 6.5% Industrial/RR 2.5% Public/semi public 14.8% Public R.O.W. 25.6% Vacant/Ag 20.6% Total 100.0%
IMPACTS ON LAND CONSUMPTION Population Estimate 1
Residential Land Use 811 acres
Commercial Land Use 176 acres
Industrial Land Use 68 acres
Public Land Use 400acres
ROW 692 acres Other Land Use 557
acresTotal New Development 2,702
acresLand area is equal to 4.2 square miles
IMPACTS ON LAND CONSUMPTION Population Estimate 2
Residential Land Use 3,156 acres
Commercial Land Use 684 acres
Industrial Land Use 263 acres
Public Land Use 1,557 acres
ROW 2,693 acres Other Land Use 2,167
acresTotal New Development
10,520 acresLand area is equal to 16.4 square miles
IMPACTS ON LAND CONSUMPTION Where should residential land uses be
geographically allocated? Where should other land uses by
geographically allocated? Will this meet future demand? What options should be identified in
Plan Norwalk?
SUMMARY Population growth and demographic
change will impact housing demand over the next 30 years
Current plans, building trends and housing supply may need to change significantly to meet future demands
Increasing demand for housing options with higher densities with more amenities within walking distance
Plan Norwalk by MindMixer
COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT
PLAN NORWALK USER STATISTICS 661 unique visitors 1731 visits 12006 pageviews 6.94 pageviews per visit Average visist lasts 5 min. 34 sec. 47 ideas submitted 198 comments
PLAN NORWALK TOPICS Community Character Community Health Growth and Housing Diversity Public Safety Stormwater Transportation Diversity
COMMUNITY CHARACTER 12 Ideas Supports
Entryway to Norwalk 22 North Avenue 9 Pedestrian Improvements 8 Amphitheater 6
Theme: improve the Hwy. 28 entrance to Norwalk
COMMUNITY HEALTH 5 Ideas
Supports Bike trail 12 Community center 6 Walkable neighborhoods 6
Theme: provide connection to the Great Western Bike Trail and create connections to city parks
GROWTH AND HOUSING DIVERSITY 14 Ideas Supports
Aquatic center 9 Current pool 4 Senior housing 4 Family fun center 2 (with
59 comments)
Theme: “John’s project”, TIF, taxes and land use policy in Norwalk
PUBLIC SAFETY 13 Ideas Support
More cruisers than cameras 17 Lower speed limits on Hwy. 28 7 Ped/bike bridge over Hwy. 28 5
Theme: cameras = “Big Brother” or “cash cow” or legitimate traffic safety control ???
STORMWATER 3 Ideas
Supports Regional stormwater detention 8 Land developer’s responsibility 4
Theme: more public awareness and education about stormwater management
TRANSPORTATION DIVERSITY 2 Ideas Supports
Bike paths 11 Mass transit 8
Theme: connections to the metro trail system and to DART.
NEXT STEPS Idea generation phase extended to
August 15th
Continue to encourage input on the Plan Norwalk by MindMixer web site
Voting phase will follow and end on August 31st Get out and vote for the best ideas
submitted on the Plan Norwalk by MindMixer web site