stationary sources
TRANSCRIPT
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Co-benefits Measures for
Stationary Sources
Dr. Badar Ghauri
Deputy Chief Manager
SUPARCO
Clean Air for Pakistan Training Course
Addressing Climate Change through
Better Air Quality Management
October 26-28, 2009
Quetta, Pakistan
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Outline
Overview of Energy in Asia
Control Measures for Stationary Sources
2
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Reference Scenario:
World Primary Energy Demand
3
Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of acentury, with coal use rising most in absolute terms
Oil
Coal
Gas
Biomass
Nuclear
Other renewables
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mtoe
Source: IEA, 2007 - World Energy Outlook 2006
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Energy Mix in Asia
4
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
milliontonsofoilequivalent
Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro
Source: BP Statistics 2008
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Coal Consumption in Asia
5
Total North
America, 613.3
Total S. &
Cent. America,
22.4
Total Europe &
Eurasia, 533.7
Total Middle
East, 6.1
Total Africa,
105.9
Total Asia
Pacific, 1896.2
2007 Coal Consumption
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990 1995 2000 2005
milliontonsofoilequivalent
Coal Consumption
China India Pakistan
By 2030, China and India would account for
57% of the worlds coal demand
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006
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Reference Scenario: Share of China and India in the Global Coal,Oil and Power Capacity Growth, 2004-2030
6
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Coal demand Oil demand Power Generation
Capacity
China and India OECD (Org of Eco
Cooperation & Dev.)
Rest of the world
Source: IEA. World Energy Outlook 2006
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Chinas Oil Demand:Medium and High Economic Growth Scenarios
7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2015 2030
mb/d
Demand in MediumEconomic Growth
Additional Demand inHigh Economic Growth
Chinas 2 % point higher economic growth will bring in 2030 additional oil demand more
than the growth from OECD
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Electricity Generation in Asia
8
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1990 1995 2000 2005
terawatthours
Electricity Generation
China
India
Japan
Pakistan
Thailand
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Cumulative Power Sector Investment
9
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 5003 000
3 500
OECD
Pacific
European
Union
United
States
China India Transitioneconomies
Latin
America
bil
lion
dollars
(2005)
Capacity replacement Demand increase
Source: IEA, 2007 - World Energy Outlook 2006
Huge investment ($5 trillion) is required in developing Asia, of whichmore than $3 trillion in China and $1 trillion in India
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Oil Consumption
10
Total
Europe &Eurasia,
949Total
Middle
East, 293
Total
Africa, 138
Total Asia
Pacific,1185
Total North
America,
1135
Total S. &
Cent.
America,
252
Oil Consumption
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
milliontonsofoilequivalent
Oil Consumption
China India Pakistan
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Net Oil Imports
11
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
OECD Oceania
Korea
Rest of developing Asia
IndiaJapan
ChinaEU
OECD North America
Million barrels/day2005 2030
Source: IEA, 2007 - World Energy Outlook 2006
China sees the biggest jump in oil imports in absolute terms, importdependency reaching nearly 80% in 2030
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Natural Gas Consumption
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
million
tonsofoilequivalent
Natural Gas Consumption
China India Pakistan
Total North
America,
728.9
Total S. &
Cent.
America,
121.1
Total Europe
& Eurasia,
1040.1
Total Middle
East, 269.4
Total Africa,
75.2
Total Asia
Pacific, 403.1
2007 Natural Gas Consumption
Chinas natural gas consumption grew 279% from 1997 to 2007
Share of Asias natural gas consumption grew from 11% in 1995 to 15% in
2007
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Energy Efficiency
13
OECDs average efficiency
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Coal-fired Power
generation
Iron and steel industry
Ind
ex(OECD
=1)
China India
Energy efficiency in China and India has generally improved in recentyears, but it is still well below the OECD averages
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Although countries in Asia have Industrial Emission Standards in place, theirimplementation and monitoring is generally weak and needs to be strengthened
Compliance to stationary standards is hindered by lack of access to resourcesallowing for investments in pollution control, low level of technology, non-availability of trained personnel, and the unwillingness of management to investin environmental protection
Many countries have substantial number of small and medium-sized industriesinterspersed in residential areas making it more difficult to monitor and regulatethese sources
Stationary Sources: Standards
14
The Philippine Outsourcing Sampling Project showed: 49% of the 795 stacks reported failed the CAA standard
for at least one parameter
Sources firing heavy bunker fuel oil are exceeding theSO2 and PM emission limits
Gensets (compression engines) are exceeding the NOxemission limit
Solid fuel-fired units are exceeding the CO emission limit
PM
28.8%
CO
14.8%
NOX
5%
SO2
51%
Pb
0.2%
% exceedance of parametersfailed by the sources sampled
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Stationary Sources: Control Strategies (1)
While international roadmaps for vehicular emissions are in place,stationary sources standards are not readily available for
comparison thus absence of roadmaps makes it difficult to promotestricter standards.
With the exception of the UNEP GERIAP (which has ended), thereare very few regional initiatives and programs on stationary sourcescompared to mobile sources which have resulted in lesserexchanges and policy-dialogues
Reduction of air pollution from stationary sources in Asia are stillmostly "end-of-pipe" treatments: tightening emission standards for stationary sources,
Mandatory use of clean fuel
Monitoring and inspection systems
Relocation of polluting industries
There is no comprehensive policy on fuels for stationary sources butthere is an emerging trend on use of low-sulfur coal, specifically inChina, but actions to reduce sulfur content of bunker oil are stilllargely absent and there are few regulatory or financial incentives forindustry to invest in sulfur-emissions abatement
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Stationary Sources: Control Strategies (2)
Emissions trading pilot projects have beenimplemented in China but there are no indications that
this will be a major control instruments for stationarysources in the next 5-10 years in Asia
The availability of carbon financing through the CDM hascreated opportunity especially for stationary sources toaccelerate industries acceptance of efficiency
investments. This has sparked off: Improved (base-line) monitoring of emissions
Structural shifts to new, less energy-intensive industrial products
Reducing the energy intensity of existing industrial productionthrough process changes and optimizing industrial energysystems.
Although China, India, Thailand, the Philippines, andIndonesia all increasingly rely on coal and oil forelectricity, they have also all established national goalsto increase renewable energy and improve energyefficiency.
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SO2 Control in China
In the 11th Five-year plan, SO2 emission reduction is theemphasis of air pollution prevention and control and
states that the emissions of sulfur dioxide should bereduced by 10% by 2010
The three principal components of existing SO2emissions control policy are:
Pollution Levy System (PLS), which is based on the
polluter pays principle Two Control Areas (TCA), is not an instrument like the
pollution levy for affecting abatement behavior, butrather a means for prioritizing SO2 control efforts,designating the standards, and identifying cities and
regions that should receive extra attention andresources from the national government
Total Emissions Control (TEC) limits the polluters todischarge under a specified level and levies thecharge when any pollution is discharged
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China has been engaged in sweeping energy policy
reforms over the last two decades to promoteenergy efficiency and conservation. Measures takeninclude the following:
reductions in fossil fuel subsidies;
research, development and demonstration
projects;a national information network with efficiencyservice and training centers;
tax reforms;
equipment standards; and
special loan programs, among other initiatives.
These measures represent emission savingsequal to nearly the entire U.S. transportationsector, about 400 million tons per year.
SO2Control in China (Contd)
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Direct impact of biomass burning
Contribute to global warming
Production of greenhouse gases
Removal of CO2 sink (vegetation)
Release of previously sequestered carbon within a short period
of time
Affect global radiation budget and climate through emission ofparticulates
Cause tropospheric ozone production through emission of reactive
gases
Contribute to stratospheric ozone depletion through emission ofmethyl bromide
Create regional and trans-boundary haze problems
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Pakistans Case (Recommendations):
EPAs should facilitate industry and other stakeholders in
implementation of control measures. EPAs can do this by entering
into contracts with the industrial associations on the basis of long-term sector level environmental policies and environmental
management plans.
Cleaner Production Program (CPP) has prepared environmental
management plans for 14 industry sectors. These plans can be used
as basic documents for reaching to long-term understandingbetween EPAs and industry associations on reducing emissions
EPAs should promote ISO 14000 certification among industry,
NGOs, Transport Sectors, Vehicular Manufacturers.
EPAs should monitor and apply pollution charges on polluters
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THANK YOU