states and markets sociology 2, class 4 copyright © 2010 by evan schofer do not copy or distribute...
Post on 21-Dec-2015
214 views
TRANSCRIPT
States and Markets
Sociology 2, Class 4
Copyright © 2010 by Evan SchoferDo not copy or distribute without
permission
Announcements• Today:
• Lecture: States & Markets – basic concepts & definitions
• Next week: economic globalization
States and Markets
• Question: How can states affect markets?– 1. Fiscal policy – taxes and spending– 2. Monetary (money) policy – printing &
lending money– 3. Laws and Regulations– 4. Direct ownership of production
• I’ll discuss examples of each…
Review: Fiscal Policy: Taxes
• Fiscal Policy: Government policy regarding taxation, public revenues, or public debt
• Taxes generate revenue for the state• Low taxes can create short term growth
– By increasing spending, consumption
• Low taxes also can increase investment, increasing long term growth
• Higher taxes support more government services– And allow greater redistribution of wealth in society.
• By taxing some things more than others, states can affect social and economic behavior.
Fiscal Policy: Spending
• Government can affect economy by adjusting how it spends money– Budget deficits occur when the government
spends more than it earns in taxes in a year• The government can do this by borrowing money…• Result: the national debt increases
– Budget surpluses occur when the government spends less than it earns
• Current national debt: $12,300,000,000,000
• Over 40,000 per person• Large government debt can harm the economy
– Can lead to higher interest rates; high taxes to pay off debt.
Fiscal Policy: Spending
• Government spending can “jump-start” the economy
• State may spend directly, or give money to people
– Keynes: “Government should spent against the wind” • Example: “New Deal” spending, war spending
helped create jobs and economic growth
• But, consistent high government spending can harm economic growth
• High deficits, debt can lead to inflation• Example: “stagflation” in 1970s.
Example: The “Stimulus Bill”
• The “stimulus bill” is an example of fiscal policy
• “American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009” • Provides tax cuts and spending with the goal of
speeding up the economy during a recession
– Stated goals:• Reduce unemployment• Increase economic growth
– Main Provisions:• 288 billion in tax cuts to individuals and businesses• 224 billion in additional funding for education, health
care & entitlement programs– Extending unemployment benefits, aid to schools, etc
• 275 billion for federal contracts, grants, loans– Build roads, renewable energy, weatherizing homes, etc.
Effects of Stimulus: Multipliers• How much does each dollar of stimulus
increase the GDP?• Answer: It depends on where the money
goes• Stimulus has no effect if the recipient doesn’t
spend it• Stimulus can have a large effect if the recipient
spends it in a way that starts a “chain reaction”– Ex: An infrastructure project: Gov’t gives it to a road
building company, company gives it to a worker, worker buys food, grocery store owner expands business… etc
• The size of the effect is called a “multiplier”– Ex: A multiplier of 1.5 means that each dollar of stimulus
generates 1.5 dollars of GDP.
Effects of Stimulus: Multipliers
• Multiplier estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), March 2009
Type of Spending Estimated Multiplier
Infrastructure projects 1 - 2.5
Transfers to people (ex: unemployment insurance)
.8 - 2.2
Tax cuts for wealthy .1 - .5
Impact of US Fiscal Policy on GDP
Source: Goldman Sachs, via Krugman NYT Blog
US fiscal policy has large
positive impact on GDP from mid-2009 to mid-2010.
US spending peters out after
that…
The Stimulus Bill: Debates• Current debate:
– Democrats / Keynesians: Stimulus bill is a good idea… increases growth & employment• Benefits outweight the debt that is incurred• In fact, some economists argue that we need a
second round of stimulus…
– Republicans / conservative economists: Stimulus bill is a bad idea: causes too much debt
– Could cause inflation and inhibit long term growth
• Some conservative economists actually reject the idea that spending has a stimulative effect
• Conservatives more concerned about debt and inflation that unemployment & short term growth.
Monetary Policy
• The government also acts as a bank:• The “Federal Reserve Bank” was set up
by the government to store a reserve of money
– Operates independently of political control
• Called “The Fed”
– Other countries have them, too• General term: “central bank”
– The Fed lends money to other banks• Who in turn, lend to people and companies
Monetary Policy
• The “Fed” uses its stores a pool of money to:– 1. Prevent financial disasters
• Example: The “run” on banks in the Great Depression
– Banks collapsed and government didn’t help out
• Example: In 2008 banks collapsed and the government aggressively stepped in
– Including TARP
– 2. To adjust the economy• Prevent boom/bust cycles, keep inflation low• It does this by setting interest rates
– And, recently, by intervening directly (buying or selling things).
The Fed and Interest Rates
• What are “interest rates”; why do they matter?
• Interest rates are like rates on a credit card, car loan, or student loan
• If rates are high, you will buy or spend less– Because you’ll have to pay a LOT of interest later…
• If rates are low, you can buy more now
• Critical issue: The Fed chooses the interest rate it will charge to lend money– The Fed is so big that other banks follow its rates
• Thus, the Fed effectively sets rates for the whole economy.
Monetary Policy
• The impact of the “Fed’s” rate policies:• Low rates stimulate the economy
• Also called “expansionary” or “loose” monetary policy
• Encourages people to spend, companies to invest• Downside: higher inflation
• High rates slow the economy• “Tight”, “contractionary,” or “conservative”
monetary policy• High interest payments mean that businesses and
people are less likely to borrow, spend, invest.
US Interest Rates 2000-2009
Rates lowered during recession following dot-com
crash and 9/11
Rates drop to zero in current
recession
The “Lower Bound” Problem
• Issue: What if you want to speed up the economy more, but you’ve already lowered interest rates to zero?– Answer: You’re stuck (mostly)
• Traditional monetary policy loses effectiveness in extreme economic conditions
» See Krugman book: “The Return of Depression Economics”
• Japan in the 1990s – the “lost decade”• But, the Fed tries ‘non-traditional’ strategies
– Ex: Buying non-treasure assets
– Implication: Fiscal stimulus is the main strategy to deal with the current recession.
Laws and Regulations
• States affect markets by imposing laws and regulations of many kinds– Competitiveness laws: prevent monopolies
or limit what monopolies can charge• Ex: Prevent price gouging
– Consumer protection laws• Ex: FDA prevents sale of tainted meat
– Laws regulating markets• Protect against fraud, volatility
– Regulating particular industries• Prices, access to markets, etc.
Laws and Regulations
• States affect markets by imposing laws and regulations of many kinds
• Example: Airlines– 1. States impose safety regulations on
airlines• Ex: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) inspects
planes, requires airlines to do regular maintenance• Why bother? Companies have a market incentive
to avoid crashes, which are costly…– Planes destroyed, reputation damaged… which harms
future sales
• Are market incentives enough to make you trust airlines?
Laws and Regulations
• Example: Airlines– 2. States regulated airline prices to reduce
competition• Created industry stability, at the cost of
competition• But, those regulations were ended in the 1970s
– Note the trade-off: stability vs. efficiency• Ex: Regulation stabilized airlines, but reduced
competition; deregulation had the opposite effect.
Laws and Regulations
• States affect markets by imposing laws and regulations of many kinds
• Example: Subsidies to agriculture• US gives tens of billions a year to farmers
– Keeps industry stable – fewer bankruptcies• US farmers don’t have to be as efficient
– Issue for future discussion: This harms farmers in poor countries…
Laws and Regulations• Governments regulate banks to protect
consumers– Generally, limiting the risks banks can take with your
money…
• Ex: FDIC – government guaranty that your money is safe in a savings account (up to 250K per bank)
– Banks are forced to pay money for such insurance; they’d rather not
• Ex: Reserve requirements – Banks must keep some money on hand, just in case of crisis
– They’d rather not do this… because they could make more $ otherwise
• Ex: Limits on “leverage” – risky investments– Banks can make more profits if they take more risks…
but they might go bankrupt!
Regulating Wages and Prices
• Example: The federal gov’t minimum wage– The Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) of
1938 established minimum wage, overtime pay, recordkeeping, and child labor standards affecting full-time and part-time workers in the private sector and in Federal, State, and local governments. • Covered workers are entitled to a minimum
wage of not less than $7.25 an hour.– Source: http://www.dol.gov/esa/whd/flsa/
• Note: California has another minimum wage law, raising the minimum to $8.00.
Regulating Wages and Prices
• The minimum wage also reflects a trade off• Minimum wage laws are a big benefit to workers• But, the US economy would be more “competitive”
if corporations could pay workers less• The fact that wages in China are under $1 / hour
means that US companies are less competitive
• Questions to ponder:• What might happen of wages were “deregulated”?• What if the minimum wage was increased to $20/hr?
State Ownership• Governments can own factories, railroads,
electric power plants, etc. – or anything else.
• Nationalized or “state-run” industry: a business or industry that is run by the state– Definition: “Nationalization” is when the
government takes over formerly private companies or industries• Example: airport security screeners after 9/11
– Definition: Privatization: when a government-run business is sold to private owners• Examples: many prisons, even some schools• Heavy industries in Britain & Russia (historically).
State Ownership• Advantages of state-run industries:
– Highly stable – no bankruptcies• Tax money can keep them afloat in hard times
– Works in collective interests (usually)• Not driven by greed; nicer to workers (usually)• Won’t try to co-opt the state: Bribes/lobbying…
– Greater accountability (sometimes)• Government organizations are often subject to
greater scrutiny and accountability, compared to private firms
– Ex: monitoring by government accounting offices; FOI Act
• Private firms that do terrible things usually just go bankrupt and leave others to clean up the mess
– Ex: Mining companies that damaged the environment.
State Ownership• Disadvantages of state ownership
– Little or no competition: • Less pressure to be efficient or innovate• Though, some are quite efficient
– Ex: Social security vs. private savings funds– Ex: State-run health systems vs US system of private
insurers
• Also, even private firms are may avoid competition– E.g., by lobbying the state for subsidies; corporate
welfare– Often, lobbying is cheaper than innovating!
– Also, state firms can become corrupt or under influence of government elites…• Ex: Oil companies in Nigeria and Russia
– Some have stolen the oil wealth of entire nations…
Keynesianism vs. Free Markets• The Keynesian state:
– Fiscal Policies: Higher taxes, higher spending• To support health care, welfare, keep full
employment
– Monetary policy: Expansionary (low interest rates)• Low interest rates keeps unemployment low
– But, inflation & debt tends to be higher
– Regulation: Expanded, elaborate• Industries and markets are stabilized, controlled
– Ownership: Many industries are nationalized• “Private sector” is smaller.
The Credit Crisis• Krugman article: “Partying Like its 1929”
• Regulation and the financial crisis
– Banks were heavily regulated since 1930s, but didn’t like it• Banks began to circumvent regulation by creating
new organizations & services (e.g., Hedge funds) – a “shadow” banking system
• Result: Banks took greater and greater risks… and made billions of dollars of profits for years
– Many risky investments were in real estate
– Decline of real estate market in 2007-8 caused risky investments to lose tremendous amounts of money• Banks began to go bankrupt; bank runs began
– Entire economy was threatened…
Credit Crisis Video• The Credit Crisis Visualized
• Jonathan Jarvis• Direct video link: http://crisisofcredit.com/• Local link:
Responses to the Credit Crisis
• What could the government do?• Many big banks owed lots more than they could
pay
• 1. Do nothing… • Banks were reckless, let them fail
– Benefit: cheap, easy– Problem: This would make the economy
worse• The entire economy needs functioning banks• Businesses depend heavily on loans to operate…
without access to cash, MANY would go bankrupt• A major collapse would almost certainly cause a
depression: mass bankruptcy and unemployment.
Responses to the Credit Crisis
• What could the government do?• 2. Nationalize the banks – take them
over• Run them for a while and then re-sell to private
owners• Sweden did that in the 1990s…
– Benefits:• Quickly restores banking system• Allows government to fire the bankers that caused
the problems
– Problems:• Politically unpopular
– Seen as “socialist” or “communist”.
Responses to the Credit Crisis
• What could the government do?• 3. “Recapitalize” the banks
• Give them a ton of money to weather the crisis
– Benefits:• Keeps the banks going, averts disaster
– Costs:• Rewards people who caused the crisis
– Lets them pay themselves big bonuses
• No control: banks may choose to not loan money• Can lead to “zombie banks” (Japan in 1990s)
– Banks are kept alive, but not really functioning.
Democrats, Republicans, Markets
• Democrats have been historically more “Keynesian” and republicans more “free market”
• But, they don’t match perfectly
– Ex: Nixon (R) instituted wage and price controls– Ex: Carter (D) oversaw substantial privatization– Clinton signed NAFTA (a free-market trade
treaty)– Reagan & Bush 1 & 2 created huge budget
deficits and greatly increased the national debt– Obama has not departed far from republican
policies in responding to the credit crisis• E.g., nationalizing banks…
States, Markets, Globalization
• Since around 1980 governments have shifted
• Away from Keynesian / Welfare-state systems• Toward free market capitalism
• This has implications for globalization– State-run industries limit global trade
• And limit the expansion of multi-national corporations
– High taxes (including on trade) limit global trade– High regulation limits trade & foreign investment– Many regulations limited trade, foreign
investment• Etc. etc. etc.
• In sum: Shift toward free markets removed obstacles to economic globalization…
Economic Globalization
• Important economic changes:• 1. Growth of international trade• 2. Increase of Foreign Direct Investment
• Ex: building factories in another country
• 3. Increased international capital mobility• Movement of money across national borders
• 4. Growth of multi-national corporations• Each has an effect on the ability of states
to control their economies.
States, Markets, Globalization
• Issue: Economic globalization puts further pressure on governments... To be pro-market
• Globalization reinforces pressures away from Keynesian policies and toward even freer markets…
– Where do companies build new factories?• In a high-tax country with lots of regulations?• Or in a free-market country with low taxes?• If states want to attract investment, they are
compelled to move toward free-market policies
– Ex: Thomas Friedman: The Golden Straitjacket• The “electronic herd” – Global investors that look
around the world for places to invest money• They force countries to “tighten the straightjacket” of
free market policies…
Economic Globalization
• Globalization has strong implications for the ability of states to control markets
• For instance:• Globalization reduces states options for fiscal
policy• Globalization reduces effectiveness of
monetary policy• Globalization harms economies that try to
regulate or nationalize industry
– We’ll discuss this more in coming weeks…