State of the Workforce 2010

Scott J. SheelyExecutive DirectorLancaster County

Workforce Investment BoardLancaster, PA

Mega-Trends

Total Employment (2001-2009)

150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

190,000

200,000

210,000

220,000

230,000

240,000

250,000

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

Lancaster

Berks

York

2001 2002 2003 2004

2005 2006

2007 2008

2009

Unemployment(October 2008-September 2010)

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Lancaster

York

Berks

Job Creation (2001-2009)

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

2001

2002

2003 2004

2005

Lancaster

York

Berks

2006 2007 2008

Job Creation by Industry*(3rd quarter 2009)

Construction

Manufacturing

Wholesale

Retail

Transportation Administration

Education

Health Care

HospitalityOther Service

Professional

*The number of new jobs that are created by either new area businesses or the expansion of employment by existing businesses

Net Job Flows (2001-2009)

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3

Lancaster

York

Berks

2001 2002 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Some Basic Observations Net job flows have been fairly predictable…they

rise in the first two quarters and fall in the last two quarters;

Fairly consistent with job creation trends; A great deal of seasonality in retail, hospitality,

and construction; Jobs tend to follow the performance of the

economy; Manufacturing, construction, health care,

hospitality and retail are still the main job creation engines in the County but transportation and business services are up and coming.

Recession (2008-2009) and Recovery Biggest job losses in the first

quarters of 2009 and 2010; Slow losses but trending upward

through the second and third quarters with job creation still spiking in second quarters;

Lancaster has done better than Berks and York Counties.

Lancaster in Comparison Next release February 2011 In 2008, the Lancaster GMP was $19.4

billion ranking it fifth among the metro economies in PA; Philadelphia $331.9 billion Pittsburgh $114.7 billion Allentown-Bethlehem $29.7 billion Harrisburg-Carlisle $27.9 billion Scranton Wilkes-Barre $19.1 billion

Only single county SMA on the list

Growth in GMP From $14.5 billion in 2001 to…

$15.1 billion in 2002 $15.7 billion in 2003 $16.5 billion in 2004 $17.3 billion in 2005 $17.9 billion in 2006 $18.7 billion in 2007 $19.4 billion in 2008;

Average annual growth from 2001 to 2008 was 4.8%

Change in GMP, 2001-2008

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

Millions

Some Basic Observations Overall vibrant economy that usually leads PA

in growth; Lags behind the national leaders but usually in

the top half nationally; Significant productivity gains in the area as

measured by growth in GMP and smaller growth in employment;

Investments in technology are paying off in productivity;

Tremendous drag on growth from low-skill, low-pay jobs

Change in Wages, 2001-2009

$2,000

$2,200

$2,400

$2,600

$2,800

$3,000

$3,200

$3,400

$3,600

$3,800

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3

Berks

LancasterYork

20082007

200620052004200320022001

Lancaster County Industry Clusters 2002-2010

(60%)

(40%)

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00

Location Quotient

Per

centa

ge

Chan

ge

in E

mplo

ymen

t

Health Care

Builders and Contractors

WholesaleTrade

Logistics andTransportation

Education

Government

Business Services

HospitalityFinancialServices

Utilities

Retail

BiotechnologyChemicals, Rubber, and Plastics

Communications

Agriculture and Food Processing

Metals and Metal Fabricating

Some Strengths Health care is our major job creation engine,

increasing employment by 34% and increasing location quotient by 13% from 2002-2010;

Transportation is a major surprise with a 31% increase in jobs and a 29% increase in location quotient in the period;

Manufacturing continues to hold its own with regard to competitiveness with some slippage over the period;

Business Services needs another look with 5% growth in the period

Some Weaknesses Large and growing contingent workforce;

Temporary workforce grew 9% between 2002 and 2010;

Highest number of temporaries are laborers, clerks, packers, customer services representatives, and health care workers (RN, LPN, nurses’ aides);

Large and growing Hospitality sector with gradually declining Retail and Personal Services sectors;

Retail is the second largest sector but declined 3% between 2002 and 2010;

Hospitality grew by 7% in the period

Manufacturing Lack of qualified workers are driving up

wages as businesses compete, especially in manufacturing;

In Lancaster, over 15% of jobs still in manufacturing;

Manufacturing was the largest contributor in output to the County economy…$3.9 billion or over 20% of total output in 2008

Challenges Replacing the retiring Baby Boom workforce; Better preparation of the emerging workforce; Emphasize post-secondary technical training; Include non-traditional workers;

Welfare-to-Work; Ex-offenders;

Re-tooling Baby Boomers that still want to work;

Welcome immigrants; Move more people out of the contingent

workforce

The Last Two Years

The Last Two Years Unemployment rose to new highs in

Lancaster County from 3.6% in December 2007 to 7.3% in September 2010;

Lancaster County residents unemployed in September 2010: 19,600;

Most layoffs happened from December 2007 to December 2009;

At one point this summer, number of employed people grew at the same time the unemployment rate rose

Industries Leading the Way to Recovery Making significant comeback

Manufacturing (all sectors) Logistics and Transportation Wholesale Distribution

Financial Services making a slight recovery Health Care has fallen off as a job

generator Nothing much happening in Construction

Growing Occupations Truck Drivers Customer Service Reps, Sales

Reps, Market Researchers Managers and Supervisors, Public

Relations, Human Resources Engineers Health Professionals still high but

declining over last year

Worst Case Scenario Persons exhausting unemployment

Actual from January 1 through September 30: 1,333

Projected for 2010: 3,613 Additional 3,500+ for first quarter of

2011 Veterans returning from active duty

Unemployment rate in excess of 10% All stimulus funding expended

Going Forward

PA CareerLink of Lancaster County 18 organizations that bring 65+ staff

people together at Liberty Place Currently seeing 1,300-1,500 people

weekly Increasing number of mature workers,

ex-offenders, and persons on welfare having more difficulty with placement

www.jobs4lancaster.com

Ready2Work Work skills assessment Enrichment of foundational skills,

reinforcement of work skills Coaching on resume writing and interviewing Assessment using WorkKeys, a national

workforce readiness by ACT Career Readiness Credential (CRC) CRC required before any training investments

Pre-Employment Training After completion of R2W, participants are

eligible for additional short-term, skill-based training suggested by employers

Exploring an expanded use of training under the Workforce Investment Act

Welding, building maintenance, office procedures, fork life driving, ServeSafe, construction, basic machine maintenance

Printing 101 most successful Manufacturing Skills Factory in January

Reinvented Traditional Services Job Club grew dramatically, adding a

part-time option Individual Training Accounts over $1

million over the last three years Increasing involvement of ABE/ESL New partnerships with Spanish-

American Civic Association for bi-lingual skill training

Business Services Team has four full-time people doing liaison with the business community

Last Program Year (2009-2010)

First Time Visits: 13,191 Graduates from Ready2Work:

1,156 ITAs: 395 Pre-Employment: 1,057 GEDs: 500 Placements: 845

Working with Ex-Offenders Close working relationship with Lancaster

County Re-entry Management Organization, Lancaster County Prison, and Lancaster County Adult Probation and Parole Services

Many ex-offenders participate in the R2W program and in training

Persons eligible for work release also involved

Job Court connection has a PO placed at PA CareerLink

Industry Partnerships and Centers of Excellence Designed to support the competitive advantages

of key industries in the regional economy Industry Partnerships are collaborations of

multiple companies to share incumbent worker training

Centers of Excellence add local research and development, technology transfer, entrepreneurial development, and pipeline from school to work to incumbent worker training…strong connection to economic development

Last year, involved over 450 companies and trained more than 4,000 incumbent workers

Industry Partnerships and Centers of Excellence Center for Manufacturing Excellence (metals,

plastics, and food) (www.centerformanufacturingexcellence.com)

COE in Production Agriculture (www.KeepLancasterCountyFarming.com)

COE in Renewable Energy (www.LancasterCountyRenewableEnergy.com)

COE in Long-Term Care Practice (www.coeinlongtermcarepractice.com)

Industrial Maintenance Training Center (www.imtcpa.com)

Pre-Apprenticeship Training Program in Construction

Industrial Maintenance Training Center of PA Trains incumbent workers in industrial

maintenance and mechatronics engineering technology

Anchored at Reading Area Community College with branch at Lancaster County Career and Technology Center

25+ schools replicating around PA Industry skill standards developed with

Packaging Machinery Manufacturers’ Institute Competency model endorsed by US

Department of Labor

Contact

Scott SheelyExecutive DirectorLancaster County Workforce Investment

Board313 W. Liberty St.Suite 114Lancaster, PA 17603717-735-0333ssheely@verizon.netwww.lancastercountywib.com