state of the north american pulp & paper industry overview north america pulp & paper...

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1 1 State of the North American State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Pulp & Paper Industry An Update & Outlook An Update & Outlook Unstable Times Unstable Times Problems or Opportunities? Problems or Opportunities? -- -- October 2005 October 2005 -- -- Value Resolution Group Value Resolution Group Dan Cenatempo AVA, CMC Dan Cenatempo AVA, CMC Center for Paper Business and Industry Studies (CPBIS) Center for Paper Business and Industry Studies (CPBIS) Jim McNutt Jim McNutt

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Page 1: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

11

State of the North American State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Pulp & Paper Industry –– An Update & Outlook An Update & Outlook ––

Unstable Times Unstable Times –– Problems or Opportunities?Problems or Opportunities?---- October 2005 October 2005 ----

Value Resolution Group Value Resolution Group –– Dan Cenatempo AVA, CMCDan Cenatempo AVA, CMCCenter for Paper Business and Industry Studies (CPBIS) Center for Paper Business and Industry Studies (CPBIS) –– Jim McNuttJim McNutt

Page 2: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

22

OverviewOverview

North America Pulp & Paper Industry North America Pulp & Paper Industry ----Update & OutlookUpdate & Outlook

Where are We?Where are We?Industry Performance Industry Performance EconomyEconomyGradeGrade--ByBy--Grade DiscussionGrade DiscussionIndustry SpendingIndustry SpendingInvestment Decisions’ DriversInvestment Decisions’ DriversWrapWrap--up and Q&Aup and Q&A

Page 3: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

33

Outlook Outlook –– Where Are We?Where Are We?A combination of increased foreign competition, rise of A combination of increased foreign competition, rise of substitutes and economic recession substitutes and economic recession drove down pulp drove down pulp and paper demand between 2000 and 2002and paper demand between 2000 and 2002

However, the North American pulp and paper industry is However, the North American pulp and paper industry is currently enjoying a modest cyclical reboundcurrently enjoying a modest cyclical rebound –– helped helped greatly by: greatly by:

Recent years capital Recent years capital constraintsconstraints & capacity & capacity rationalizations rationalizations tthrough hrough in partin part significant industry capacity closuressignificant industry capacity closuresImproving domestic Improving domestic economic conditionseconomic conditionsA A weakened weakened US dollarUS dollar

As a result As a result ---- supply is relatively in balance with demand supply is relatively in balance with demand and and pricing power shifted back towards paper producerspricing power shifted back towards paper producers

Page 4: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

44

Outlook Outlook –– Where Are We?Where Are We?But, this modest rebound is loosing momentum and risk But, this modest rebound is loosing momentum and risk remains fromremains from::

Slowing Slowing domestic demand growthdomestic demand growthRisingRising international competition international competition –– but but some changessome changesevolvingevolvingSubstitutionSubstitution pressure from alternative substrates & mediaspressure from alternative substrates & mediasAgingAging domestic asset base domestic asset base –– requiring investment attentionrequiring investment attentionNagging poor Nagging poor ---- but improving but improving ---- financial performancefinancial performanceLure of pent up expansion plansLure of pent up expansion plans in an improving market in an improving market ––risks of past behavior still overhangingrisks of past behavior still overhangingOne time events One time events ---- such as hurricanes Katrina, Rita & Wilmasuch as hurricanes Katrina, Rita & Wilma

Page 5: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

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Outlook Outlook –– Industry PerformanceIndustry PerformanceCreating shareholder value Creating shareholder value is is thethe goal of the firmgoal of the firmSuccessful companies continuously identify and successfully Successful companies continuously identify and successfully execute investments execute investments with returns greater than cost of capitalwith returns greater than cost of capitalThe industry has not made target returns and, thereforeThe industry has not made target returns and, therefore not not attracted necessary capital investment attracted necessary capital investment –– but this could be but this could be turning . . .turning . . .Performance Performance has traditionally followedhas traditionally followed excess capacity and excess capacity and pricing pricing –– yet yet –– as noted as noted –– we may be entering a new era herewe may be entering a new era hereAnd note that And note that –– total shareholder returns have held up bettertotal shareholder returns have held up betterthan some standard industry benchmarksthan some standard industry benchmarks

Industry performance and shareholder returns are improving but still below the level required by investors to make a fair return at this time . . .

Industry performance and shareholder returns are Industry performance and shareholder returns are improving but still below the level required by improving but still below the level required by investors to make a fair return at this time . . . investors to make a fair return at this time . . .

Page 6: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

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Outlook Outlook –– Industry PerformanceIndustry Performance2005 Returns 2005 Returns

Are Are ImprovingImproving ––But Still 4 Points But Still 4 Points Below Target Below Target ––

Rational Rational Investors Will Investors Will Not AllocateNot AllocateCapital To A Capital To A

Poorly Poorly Performing Performing

Industry Industry –– Key Key Question = Is Question = Is The Industry The Industry

Situation Situation Changing?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 Q22005

Return On Total Capital Cost of Capital

ROTC averages 6.7% vs. 11.0% cost of capital

Changing?

Page 7: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

77

Outlook Outlook –– IndustryIndustry PerformancePerformanceTotal Shareholders’ Returns Still Trail S&P 500Total Shareholders’ Returns Still Trail S&P 500

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

Inde

x of

Mon

thly

Tot

al S

hare

hold

er R

etur

ns

S&P Return Index P&FP Company Avg.P&FP Company W. Avg.

S&P 500 TSR = 9.1% Per YearP&FP W. Avg TSR = 6.9% Per YearP&FP Avg. TSR = 6.1% Per YearL.T. Government Bond = 6.2% Per Y

The S&P 500 The S&P 500 Rebound Still Rebound Still Leaves Pulp Leaves Pulp

& Paper & Paper Industry Industry

Shareholders Shareholders Wanting Wanting ––

UnderperformUnderperforming The Index ing The Index By 2By 2--3 Points 3 Points

Per Year Per Year Since 1992Since 1992

Page 8: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

88

Outlook Outlook –– IndustryIndustry PerformancePerformanceFinancial PerformanceFinancial Performance

US industry financial performance US industry financial performance has been poor on an has been poor on an absolute basis and absolute basis and persistentlypersistently weak weak from the late 90’s from the late 90’s through todaythrough today –– But as noted But as noted ---- we are seeing improvementswe are seeing improvements

These shortThese short--term performance improvements are a welcome term performance improvements are a welcome relief for the industry relief for the industry but could be transientbut could be transient if industry if industry management is again tempted to significantly increase management is again tempted to significantly increase major major capacity orientedcapacity oriented [instead of performance enhancing][instead of performance enhancing] capital capital investmentsinvestments

Further, Further, ongoing pulp and paper facility closuresongoing pulp and paper facility closures will likely will likely required to achieve improved financial performance.required to achieve improved financial performance.

Page 9: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

99

Outlook Outlook ---- The EconomyThe Economy

Overall Overall Economic Economic

Growth Growth Projections Projections Do Favor Do Favor

Continued Continued Demand Demand

GrowthGrowth In The In The IndustryIndustry

3.6%3.6%4.6%4.6%1.8%1.8%--0.1%0.1%Latin AmericaLatin America4.8%4.8%5.1%5.1%6.0%6.0%4.3%4.3%Middle EastMiddle East6.9%6.9%7.6%7.6%7.7%7.7%6.6%6.6%Developing AsiaDeveloping Asia

6.6%6.6%8.0%8.0%7.8%7.8%5.4%5.4%Commonwealth of Commonwealth of

Independent StatesIndependent States

4.8%4.8%5.5%5.5%4.5%4.5%4.4%4.4%Central and Eastern EuropeCentral and Eastern Europe5.4%5.4%4.5%4.5%4.3%4.3%3.5%3.5%AfricaAfrica5.9%5.9%6.6%6.6%6.1%6.1%4.8%4.8%Other Emerging MarketsOther Emerging Markets

4.0%4.0%5.5%5.5%3.0%3.0%5.0%5.0%Newly Industrialized Asian Newly Industrialized Asian

EconomiesEconomies

3.5%3.5%4.3%4.3%2.4%2.4%3.6%3.6%Other Advanced EconomiesOther Advanced Economies3.1%3.1%2.9%2.9%2.0%2.0%3.4%3.4%CanadaCanada2.5%2.5%3.4%3.4%2.2%2.2%1.8%1.8%UKUK2.3%2.3%4.4%4.4%2.5%2.5%--0.3%0.3%JapanJapan2.2%2.2%2.2%2.2%0.5%0.5%0.8%0.8%Euro AreaEuro Area3.4%3.4%4.4%4.4%3.0%3.0%1.9%1.9%USUS

Advanced EconomiesAdvanced Economies20052005200420042003200320022002Real GDP Growth By RegionReal GDP Growth By Region

Page 10: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

1010

Outlook Outlook ---- The EconomyThe EconomyNA Sectors That Directly Drive Pulp & Paper Demand Are NA Sectors That Directly Drive Pulp & Paper Demand Are

Projected To Be Weaker Than Overall GDP Projected To Be Weaker Than Overall GDP –– But Remain PositiveBut Remain Positive

--2.0%2.0%1.0%1.0%5.5%5.5%2.9%2.9%2.5%2.5%Tissue, Building Tissue, Building ProductsProductsHousing StartsHousing Starts

1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%0.2%0.2%1.1%1.1%1.2%1.2%Tissue, Building Tissue, Building ProductsProductsUS HouseholdsUS Households

2.7%2.7%3.4%3.4%--0.4%0.4%5.3%5.3%3.4%3.4%P&W Papers, P&W Papers, TissueTissue

Professional Employment & Professional Employment & Business ServicesBusiness Services

4.6%4.6%15.0%15.0%2.0%2.0%5.2%5.2%21.6%21.6%P&W PapersP&W PapersComputer & Peripheral SalesComputer & Peripheral Sales

2.9%2.9%7.4%7.4%6.3%6.3%5.5%5.5%4.8%4.8%TissueTissueFood services and drinking placesFood services and drinking places

3.1%3.1%5.0%5.0%3.6%3.6%3.2%3.2%1.9%1.9%BoxboardBoxboardFood & Beverage SalesFood & Beverage Sales5.3%5.3%5.7%5.7%0.7%0.7%9.5%9.5%4.9%4.9%PackagingPackagingIndust. Prod. Indust. Prod. -- DurablesDurables0.9%0.9%2.2%2.2%--0.6%0.6%1.3%1.3%1.8%1.8%ContainerboardContainerboardIndust. Prod. Indust. Prod. -- NonNon--DurablesDurables2.5%2.5%3.7%3.7%0.1%0.1%6.0%6.0%3.5%3.5%AllAllIndustrial ProductionIndustrial Production

2.8%2.8%3.1%3.1%3.2%3.2%4.4%4.4%2.6%2.6%AllAllPersonal Consumption Personal Consumption ExpendituresExpenditures

2.2%2.2%3.6%3.6%1.9%1.9%1.6%1.6%2.4%2.4%AllAllImplicit Price DeflatorImplicit Price Deflator3.0%3.0%3.4%3.4%2.5%2.5%4.1%4.1%2.5%2.5%AllAllReal GDPReal GDP

20062006--201020102005200520002000--

2004200419951995--20002000

19901990--19951995

Industry Segment Industry Segment ImpactedImpactedEconomic IndicatorEconomic Indicator

Page 11: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

1111

Outlook Outlook ---- The EconomyThe Economy

The Katrina The Katrina –– Rita Rita –– Wilma Economy EffectWilma Economy EffectReduce 2006 GDPReduce 2006 GDP from 0.6 to 2.0 ptsfrom 0.6 to 2.0 pts

Sustain Sustain high or increasehigh or increase energy pricesenergy prices

Increase Increase risk of recessionrisk of recession

Likely Likely to drive down volume and pricesto drive down volume and prices in paper, in paper, packaging and market pulp grades in 2005 / 2006packaging and market pulp grades in 2005 / 2006

Will offset falling pulpwood demand with enhanced Will offset falling pulpwood demand with enhanced demand for structural timber and engineered wood demand for structural timber and engineered wood productsproducts..

Page 12: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

1212

Outlook Outlook ---- GradeGrade--byby--Grade DiscussionGrade DiscussionNorth American MarketNorth American MarketNA BoxboardNA BoxboardNA ContainerboardNA ContainerboardNA NewsprintNA NewsprintNA Printing & Writing PapersNA Printing & Writing PapersNA Market PulpNA Market PulpNA TissueNA TissueNA Recovered Fiber & EnergyNA Recovered Fiber & Energy

Page 13: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

1313

Outlook Outlook ---- NA Market OverviewNA Market Overview

The North American Pulp and Paper industry is The North American Pulp and Paper industry is a mature a mature web of businessesweb of businesses generally characterized by:generally characterized by:

Highest per capita consumption in world across all gradesHighest per capita consumption in world across all gradesSlower growth than real GDPSlower growth than real GDPHigh capital intensityHigh capital intensityCost and price based competition Cost and price based competition Below cost of capital returns Below cost of capital returns An aging asset baseAn aging asset baseCyclical pricing and profitability. . . . .Cyclical pricing and profitability. . . . .

Historically, the North American industry expanded after each cyclical peak. Excess capacity was then been pushed onto

international markets – This pattern has finally changed.

Historically, the North American industry expanded after each Historically, the North American industry expanded after each cyclical peak. Excess capacity was then been pushed onto cyclical peak. Excess capacity was then been pushed onto

international markets international markets –– This pattern has finally changed.This pattern has finally changed.

Page 14: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

1414

Outlook Outlook ---- NA Market OverviewNA Market OverviewToday the NA Industry business environment Today the NA Industry business environment has has stabilized due to a combination of factors:stabilized due to a combination of factors:

A weakening US dollarA weakening US dollarRebounding domestic demandRebounding domestic demandImproving returnsImproving returnsWeakening competitiveness of European producersWeakening competitiveness of European producersModerating industry growth in developing regionsModerating industry growth in developing regionsBetter understanding by industry leaders of the role of Better understanding by industry leaders of the role of capacity and spending managementcapacity and spending management

This representsThis represents a substantive change from the recent a substantive change from the recent yearsyears of persistent weakening overall market place of persistent weakening overall market place conditions and demand as well as industry performanceconditions and demand as well as industry performance

Page 15: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

1515

Outlook Outlook ---- NA Market OverviewNA Market Overview

Consequently Consequently ––As noted the As noted the demand weakness and oversupplydemand weakness and oversupply of the of the past years have begun to reverse, andpast years have begun to reverse, and

Producers have been Producers have been generally successful implementing generally successful implementing price increases price increases ---- so far so far ---- in this environmentin this environment

The net result is a cyclical upturn in the US pulp and paper industry that could reverse circa 2006 / 2007

The net result is a cyclical upturn in the US pulp and The net result is a cyclical upturn in the US pulp and paper industry that could reverse circa 2006 / 2007paper industry that could reverse circa 2006 / 2007

Page 16: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

1616

Outlook Outlook ---- NA Market OverviewNA Market Overview

75,000

85,000

95,000

105,000

115,000

125,000

135,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Nor

th A

mer

ican

Pap

er &

Boa

rd (S

T 00

0s)

Domestic Consumption Domestic Shipments Capacity

Total NA Total NA Paper & Paper & Board Board

Consumption Consumption Has Resumed Has Resumed

Growth Growth ––While Overall While Overall Capacity Capacity Is Is

Now Now Relatively Relatively

FlatFlat

Page 17: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

1717

Outlook Outlook ---- NA Market OverviewNA Market OverviewThis has generated This has generated a much needed breath of a much needed breath of

fresh airfresh air for the NA Industry to take stock, and for the NA Industry to take stock, and determine its path forward under more stable determine its path forward under more stable

and positive circumstances . . .and positive circumstances . . .

Accordingly -- the North American industry does have a window of opportunity to further restructure and innovate

to better compete in the changing global market looking out – but the business environment for such enhancement

moves is transient – and time is likely essential.

Accordingly Accordingly ---- the North American industry the North American industry does have a does have a window of opportunity to further restructure and innovatewindow of opportunity to further restructure and innovate

to better compete in the changing global market looking out to better compete in the changing global market looking out –– but the business environment for such enhancement but the business environment for such enhancement

moves is transient moves is transient –– and time is likely essential.and time is likely essential.

Page 18: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

1818

Outlook Outlook –– NA Market OverviewIndustry Industry

Surveys And Surveys And Projections Projections

Both Indicate Both Indicate That That Capacity Capacity Could Begin Could Begin

To Grow AgainTo Grow AgainBetween 2005 Between 2005

And 2010 And 2010 –– But But At A Much At A Much

Lower Than Lower Than Historic RateHistoric RateAnd From A And From A

Reduced BaseReduced Base

NA Market Overview

0.5%1.5%532-352NA Market Pulp

0.2%2.1%131800NA Tissue

0.0%1.7%-51-1,221NA Printing & Writing

-2.9%-0.5%-2,328-2,057NA Newsprint

0.8%1.7%1,516-1,292U.S. Containerboard

1.0%1.4%609-74NA Boxboard

2005-2010

1990-2004

2005-2010

2000-2004Grade Segment

Compound Annual Growth Rate

Change in Capacity (Tons/Tonnes)

Page 19: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

1919

Outlook Outlook –– NA BoxboardNA BoxboardBoxboard is Boxboard is a weak but stabilizing NA segment a weak but stabilizing NA segment ----

Slow growth in industries that consume boxboardSlow growth in industries that consume boxboard, increased , increased competition from overseas producers and competition from overseas producers and widespread widespread substitutionsubstitution by plastics and alternative packaging materials by plastics and alternative packaging materials have hurt producershave hurt producers

Profitability/returns Profitability/returns are better than industry averageare better than industry average despite despite these poor fundamentals due to a relatively concentrated these poor fundamentals due to a relatively concentrated supply base supply base

Facility closures have brought Facility closures have brought supply and demand in linesupply and demand in line

Implications: Slow capacity growth projected but relatively high risk of falling demand and additional facility closures.

ImplicationsImplications:: Slow capacity growth projected but relatively Slow capacity growth projected but relatively high risk of falling demand and additional facility closures.high risk of falling demand and additional facility closures.

Page 20: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

2020

Outlook Outlook –– NA BoxboardNA Boxboard

NA NA Boxboard Boxboard Demand Demand

Growth Now Growth Now Significantly Significantly Lags GDPLags GDP ––

Bleached Bleached Board Board

Growth Growth Slightly Slightly

Outpaces Outpaces Recycled

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

1.75

2

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Rel

ativ

e G

row

th In

dex

(199

0 =

1)

Real GDP NA SBS Total Boxboard Recycled

Page 21: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

2121

Outlook Outlook –– NA BoxboardNA Boxboard

3,000

5,500

8,000

10,500

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

NA

Box

boar

d Vo

lum

e Vo

lum

e (S

hort

Ton

s M

illio

ns)

NA Demand NA Capacity Total Shipments

x

Both Both Demand Demand

And Supply And Supply Have Have

Resumed Resumed GrowthGrowth But But Will Take Will Take Several Several

Years To Years To Reach Reach

Historic Historic LevelsLevels

Page 22: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

2222

Outlook Outlook –– NA BoxboardNA BoxboardNA Boxboard NA Boxboard

Has Has Consolidated Consolidated

& Reduced & Reduced Excess Excess

Capacity Capacity –– But But Will Be Will Be

Tempted To Tempted To Add CapacityAdd CapacityIn The OutIn The Out--

years If years If Demand Demand

Continues To Continues To Grow

8%9% 9%

6%5%

3%

8%7%

5%4% 5% 5%

6% 6%5%

6% 6%

9%8%

9%

7%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

NA

Box

boar

d - E

xces

s C

apac

ity (S

hort

Ton

s 00

0s)

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Box

- %

Exc

ess

Cap

acity

Excess Capacity % Excess Capacity Grow

Page 23: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

2323

Outlook Outlook –– NA BoxboardNA Boxboard

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

SBS

15 p

oint

Pric

e ($

Sho

rt T

on)

Real Price ($2004) Nominal Price Linear (Real Price ($2004))

The Recent The Recent Rebound In Rebound In NA Prices Is NA Prices Is FalteringFaltering ––LongLong--term term

Prices Prices Continue To Continue To

Trend Trend DownwardsDownwards

Page 24: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

2424

This NA Containerboard segment has undergone one of the most This NA Containerboard segment has undergone one of the most extensive restructurings within the industry extensive restructurings within the industry ----

Concentration of top producers Concentration of top producers has gone from one of the has gone from one of the lowest to highest in the industrylowest to highest in the industry –– improved capacity improved capacity utilization and expansion discipline has followedutilization and expansion discipline has followedFurther acquisitions by large players Further acquisitions by large players will be difficultwill be difficultHowever, However, NA producers have lost export marketNA producers have lost export market to new to new overseas capacity, especially in China and Germanyoverseas capacity, especially in China and GermanyProfitability and returns are Profitability and returns are lower than industry averagelower than industry averageSlack capacity Slack capacity absorbed quicklyabsorbed quickly with improved economy

Outlook Outlook –– NA ContainerboardNA Containerboard

with improved economy

Implications: Producers are expected to grow capacity slowly with demand – risks of further closures persist from

loss of volume in export markets and to substitutes.

Implications:Implications: Producers are expected to grow capacity Producers are expected to grow capacity slowly with demand slowly with demand –– risks of further closures persist from risks of further closures persist from

loss of volume in export markets and to substitutes.loss of volume in export markets and to substitutes.

Page 25: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

2525

Outlook Outlook –– NA ContainerboardNA Containerboard

NA ContainerNA Container--board Demand board Demand Continues To Continues To

GrowGrow At A Rate At A Rate Closely Tied To Closely Tied To Domestic Domestic NonNon--Durables and Durables and

DurablesDurablesProduction

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

1.75

2

2.25

2.5

2.75

3

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Rel

ativ

e G

row

th In

dex

(199

0 =

1)

US Linerboard US MediumUS Durable Production US Non-Durable ProductionReal GDP

Production

Page 26: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

2626

Outlook Outlook –– NA ContainerboardNA Containerboard

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

U.S

. Con

tain

erbo

ard

Volu

me

(Sho

rt T

ons

Mill

ions

)

Demand Capacity Total Shipments

NA Capacity NA Capacity Is ExpectedIs ExpectedTo Be Well To Be Well Controlled Controlled Relative To Relative To

DemandDemand

Page 27: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

2727

Outlook Outlook –– NA ContainerboardNA Containerboard

6% 5%4% 5%

3%

6% 6%

9%

4%

6% 6%5% 5% 5% 5%

10%

14%

9%9%

5%

7%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

U.S

. Con

tain

erbo

ard

- Exc

ess

Cap

acity

(Sho

rt T

ons

000s

)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

U.S

. Con

tain

erbo

ard

- % E

xces

s C

apac

ity

Excess Capacity % Excess Capacity

NA NA ContainerContainer--

board’s board’s Excess Excess

Capacity Is Capacity Is Now Now

Relatively In Relatively In BalanceBalance

Page 28: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

2828

Outlook Outlook –– NA ContainerboardNA Containerboard

NA Capacity NA Capacity Reductions Reductions

Helped Helped Containerboard Containerboard

Producers Producers Maintain & Maintain &

Prices Prices –– But But Normal Profits Normal Profits

Are Not Yet Are Not Yet Being Being

Generated$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Kra

ft Li

nerb

oard

42l

b. P

rice

($ S

hort

Ton

)

Real Price ($2004) Nominal Price Linear (Real Price ($2004))Generated

Page 29: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

2929

Outlook Outlook –– NA NewsprintNA NewsprintNewsprint is the Newsprint is the weakest overall industry NA segment weakest overall industry NA segment ----

ShortShort--term publishing and printing declines have been term publishing and printing declines have been exacerbated exacerbated by substitution to alternative mediaby substitution to alternative media

National and local papers continue to National and local papers continue to reduce page sizereduce page size

Newsprint Newsprint is in declineis in decline in the longin the long--termterm

Opportunities for further consolidation exist and Opportunities for further consolidation exist and significant significant capacity reductions and grade conversions will continue . . .capacity reductions and grade conversions will continue . . .

Implications: Rational players will spend a minimum of capital and seek value added grade conversions. No new NA

Newsprint mills are likely to be built -- at least by rational sector players . . .

Implications:Implications: Rational players will spend a minimum of capital Rational players will spend a minimum of capital and seek value added grade conversions. and seek value added grade conversions. No new NA No new NA

Newsprint mills are likely to be builtNewsprint mills are likely to be built ---- at least by rational at least by rational sector players . . .sector players . . .

Page 30: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

3030

Outlook Outlook –– NA NewsprintNA Newsprint

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

1.75

2

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Rel

ativ

e G

row

th In

dex

(199

0 =

1)

Real GDP NA Newsprint Demand

NA NA Newsprint Is Newsprint Is A Declining A Declining SegmentSegment In In

LongLong--Term Term ––A ShortA Short-- to to MidMid-- Term Term

Improvement Improvement May OccurMay OccurBut Is Not But Is Not ProjectedProjected

Page 31: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

3131

Outlook Outlook –– NA NewsprintNA Newsprint

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

17,000

19,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

New

sprin

t Vol

ume

(Met

ric T

ons

000s

)

NA Demand NA Capacity Total Shipments

Demand, Demand, Capacity, Capacity, Exports, & Exports, & Shipments Shipments

Are All Are All Sliding Sliding

DownwardDownwardAt A At A

Relatively Relatively Quick RateQuick Rate

Page 32: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

3232

Outlook Outlook –– NA NewsprintNA Newsprint

4%

11%

6%5%

4% 3%5%

10%

6%

10%

8%8%

10%8%

6%

4%

10%

12%

8%

7%9%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

NA

New

sprin

t - E

xces

s C

apac

ity (M

etric

Ton

s 00

0s)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

NA

New

sprin

t - %

Exc

ess

Cap

acity

Excess Capacity % Excess Capacity

The Supply The Supply And And

Demand Demand Situation Situation

Has Has ImprovedImproved

But Excess But Excess Capacity Capacity RemainsRemains

Page 33: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

3333

Outlook Outlook –– NA NewsprintNA Newsprint

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

New

sprin

t Pric

e ($

Per

Met

ric T

on)

Real Price ($2004) Nominal Price Linear (Real Price ($2004))

Capacity Capacity Reductions Reductions

Have Have Helped Helped Boost Boost

Prices Prices ----But A But A Strong Strong

Downward Downward Trend Trend

Persists Persists

Page 34: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

3434

Outlook Outlook –– NA P&W PapersNA P&W PapersRecent Recent economic slowdown & alternative media economic slowdown & alternative media substitutionsubstitution have impacted P&W demand negatively have impacted P&W demand negatively ----

Uncompetitive Uncompetitive capacity being closedcapacity being closed & modest demand & modest demand increases will tend to reign in excess capacityincreases will tend to reign in excess capacity

CF, CGW, UCF & GW Grades CF, CGW, UCF & GW Grades have seemingly collapsedhave seemingly collapsed into into one relatively interone relatively inter--changeable/somewhat flexible grade changeable/somewhat flexible grade structure structure from consumers’ perspectivesfrom consumers’ perspectives

In this context In this context ---- CF quickly became commoditized CF quickly became commoditized ----displaced by improved CGW grades displaced by improved CGW grades –– changes still expectedchanges still expected

Implications: Significant repositioning / redeployment of assets – continued M&A & financial constraints.

Implications:Implications: Significant repositioning / redeployment of Significant repositioning / redeployment of assets assets –– continued M&A & financial constraints.continued M&A & financial constraints.

Page 35: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

3535

Outlook Outlook –– NA P&W Papers NA P&W Papers (cont.)(cont.)

In addition In addition ---- high end uses high end uses ---- auto brochures/annual auto brochures/annual reports reports ---- are being replaced by website versionsare being replaced by website versions

High volume UCF under pressure from overseas High volume UCF under pressure from overseas competitors, and Newsprint producers competitors, and Newsprint producers are converting are converting capacity to UC and CGW grades capacity to UC and CGW grades creating serious creating serious downstream pressures for UCF across timedownstream pressures for UCF across time

Financial returns & growth prospects Financial returns & growth prospects are similar to are similar to industry averageindustry average & room exists & room exists for continued M&A activityfor continued M&A activity

Implications: Certain segments will suffer net capacity reductions and the grade turmoil will continue to create an

unstable overall grade-to-grade business environment.

Implications:Implications: Certain segments will suffer net capacity Certain segments will suffer net capacity reductions and the grade turmoil will continue to create an reductions and the grade turmoil will continue to create an

unstable overall gradeunstable overall grade--toto--grade business environment.grade business environment.

Page 36: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

3636

Outlook Outlook –– NA P&W PapersNA P&W Papers

P&W Paper P&W Paper Demand Demand

FundamentalsFundamentalsBegan To Began To

Change In The Change In The MidMid--1990s 1990s ––Minimal And Minimal And Risky Growth Risky Growth Is Expected Is Expected

Going Going Forward

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

1.75

2

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Rel

ativ

e G

row

th In

dex

(199

0 =

1)

Real GDP NA UCFS Demand Employment - WC ProffessionalsForward

Page 37: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

3737

Outlook Outlook –– NA P&W PapersNA P&W Papers

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

NA

P&

Writ

ing

Pape

rs

Volu

me

(Sho

rt T

ons

000s

)

Demand Capacity Shipments

Rising Imports Rising Imports Have Have Slowed Slowed ShipmentsShipmentsRelative To Relative To Domestic Domestic

Demand And Demand And Further Further

Capacity Capacity RationalizationRationalization

Is LikelyIs Likely

Page 38: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

3838

Outlook Outlook –– NA P&W PapersNA P&W Papers

Significant Significant NA P&W NA P&W

OverOver--Capacity Capacity

Persists Persists ––Sustaining A Sustaining A

Difficult Difficult Market Market

ConditionCondition

8%

13%

10%

8%

4%

8%

7%

8%

7%

15%15%14%

12%12%

10%

9%

14%

11%13%

12%11%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

NA

P&

W P

aper

s - E

xces

s C

apac

ity (S

hort

Ton

s 00

0s)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

NA

P&

W -

% E

xces

s C

apac

ity

Excess Capacity % Excess Capacity

Page 39: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

3939

Outlook Outlook –– NA P&W PapersNA P&W Papers

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Rea

l Pric

e ($

2004

Sho

rt T

on)

CFS No. 3 60lb. UCGW AverageUCFS No. 4 Xerocopy CGW No. 4 50lb.

Collapsed Collapsed Real Price Real Price

Trends Trends Continue Continue

DownwardDownwardAnd Recent And Recent

Pricing Pricing Improvements Improvements

Have Been Have Been DisappointingDisappointing

Page 40: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

4040

Outlook Outlook –– NA Market PulpNA Market PulpMarket Pulp is an intermediate good in the production of the Market Pulp is an intermediate good in the production of the other paper and paperboard grades other paper and paperboard grades ----

Pulp Investment returns Pulp Investment returns –– among the poorestamong the poorest in the industry in the industry ––which in some circles is baffling . . .which in some circles is baffling . . .

Environmental restrictions Environmental restrictions –– new capacity additions difficultnew capacity additions difficultInternational producers International producers –– continue tocontinue to import pulp competitively import pulp competitively to USto USDIP pulps presently DIP pulps presently relatively more financially attractiverelatively more financially attractive than than virgin pulpsvirgin pulps

Implications: Some capital to be spent on integrated DIP facilities. Capacity will creep up with incremental improvement

projects – Wild card here is China’s fiber demand . . .

Implications:Implications: Some capital to be spent on integrated DIP Some capital to be spent on integrated DIP facilities. Capacity will creep up with incremental improvementfacilities. Capacity will creep up with incremental improvement

projects projects –– Wild card here is China’s fiber demand . . .Wild card here is China’s fiber demand . . .

Page 41: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

4141

Outlook Outlook –– NA PulpNA Pulp

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

1.75

2

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Mar

ket P

ulp

vs. P

aper

Gro

wth

Inde

x

NA P&W Papers + Tissue Total NA Market PulpNA BSKP NA BHKP

Demand Demand For Market For Market

Pulp Pulp Follows Follows Other Other

Grades Grades ––But WatchBut Watch

China’s China’s Needs and Needs and Demands Demands Looking Looking

OutOut

Page 42: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

4242

Outlook Outlook –– NA PulpNA PulpSupply And Supply And Demand For Demand For

Chemical Chemical Market Pulp Market Pulp Is Expected Is Expected

To Be To Be Relatively Relatively FlatFlat –– But But Again Again ––Watch Watch

China’s China’s Needs Needs

Evolve . . .

-

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500

15,000

1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

NA

Mar

ket P

ulp

Volu

me

(Met

ric T

ons

000s

)

BSKP Shipments BHKP ShipmentsBSKP Capacity BHKP Capacity Evolve . . .

Page 43: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

4343

Outlook Outlook –– NA BHKPNA BHKP

6%

12%11%11%

10%

3%

9%

6%5%

7%8%

3%

1%

2% 3%

12%

10%

4%

10%

6%5%

(200)

(100)

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

BH

KP

- Exc

ess

Cap

acity

(Sho

rt T

ons

000s

)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

BH

KP

- % E

xces

s C

apac

ity

Metric Tons % of Capacity

NA NA BHKP BHKP Capacity Is Capacity Is

In CheckIn Check But But Is Expected Is Expected To Creep Up To Creep Up Over Time Over Time ––Increasing Increasing The Risk Of The Risk Of

Capacity Capacity ClosuresClosures

Page 44: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

4444

Outlook Outlook –– NA BSKPNA BSKP

9%

12% 12%14%

3%

9%

7% 7% 7% 6%

14%

1%

0%

4%7%

12% 11%

4%

11%

8%

5%

(500)

-

500

1,000

1,500

1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

BSK

P - E

xces

s C

apac

ity (S

hort

Ton

s 00

0s)

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

BSK

P - %

Exc

ess

Cap

acity

Metric Tons % of Capacity

NA NA BSKP Is BSKP Is Carrying Carrying Relatively Relatively

MoreMoreCapacity Capacity

Than BHKP Than BHKP –– Making It Making It

More More Sensitive To Sensitive To

SwingsSwings In In DemandDemand

Page 45: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

4545

Outlook Outlook –– NA Market PulpNA Market Pulp

Market Pulp Market Pulp Prices HavePrices HaveOnce Again Once Again Flattened & Flattened & LongLong--term term

Fundamentals Fundamentals Still Not Still Not

StrongStrong Going Going Forward

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Rea

l Pul

p Pr

ice

Per M

etric

Ton

($20

04)

NBSKP Deliv. To US NBHKP Deliv. To USForward

Page 46: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

4646

Outlook Outlook –– NA TissueNA TissueTissue is Tissue is strongest overall segmentstrongest overall segment in North America in North America ----

EndEnd--product demand is mature product demand is mature –– Americans highest perAmericans highest per--capita consumers in world & capita consumers in world & incremental demand is slowincremental demand is slowDemand growth is slowing Demand growth is slowing –– but still expanding per capitabut still expanding per capitaHowever However –– overall company financial returns overall company financial returns less sensitive to less sensitive to supply / demand dynamicssupply / demand dynamics at mill level than other gradesat mill level than other gradesRegulatory considerations Regulatory considerations will limit large M&A activitywill limit large M&A activityBoth technology changes and Both technology changes and new entrepreneurial entrantsnew entrepreneurial entrantswill drive spendingwill drive spendingExcess capacity is building Excess capacity is building –– but likely to be absorbedbut likely to be absorbed

Implications: Segment may be losing some luster – is a day of reckoning coming or will historical market

dynamics win out?

Implications:Implications: Segment may be losing some luster Segment may be losing some luster –– is a is a day of reckoning coming or will historical market day of reckoning coming or will historical market

dynamics win out?dynamics win out?

Page 47: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

4747

Outlook Outlook –– NA TissueNA Tissue

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

1.75

2

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Rel

ativ

e G

row

th In

dex

(199

0 =

1)

Real GDP NA Tissue U.S. Households

NA Tissue NA Tissue Has Has

Innovated Innovated To Keep To Keep Demand Demand Ahead Of Ahead Of

Household Household FormationFormation

Page 48: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

4848

Outlook Outlook –– NA TissueNA Tissue

Constraint Constraint Is Needed Is Needed

As As Capacity Capacity

Growth Has Growth Has Recently Recently

Outpacing Outpacing DemandDemand ––But Some But Some Structural Structural

Protections Protections Remain

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

NA

Tis

sue

Volu

me

(Sho

rt T

ons

000s

)

Demand Capacity Shipments Remain

Page 49: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

4949

Outlook Outlook –– NA TissueNA Tissue

Excess Excess Tissue Tissue

Capacity Capacity Is Is Building Building But Will But Will

ModerateModerateAs The As The Rate Of Rate Of

Capacity Capacity Additions Additions

Slow

4%

10%11%

8% 8%

6%7%

5%4%

13%12%

11%10%9% 9%

7%

9%9%

12%

12%

7%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

NA

Tis

sue

- Exc

ess

Cap

acity

(Sho

rt T

ons

000s

)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

NA

Tis

sue

- % E

xces

s C

apac

ity

Excess Capacity % Excess Capacity

Slow

Page 50: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

5050

Outlook Outlook –– NA TissueNA Tissue

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Hou

seho

ld P

aper

Pro

duct

sPr

ice

Inde

x

Real Price ($2004) Nominal PriceLinear (Real Price ($2004))

Consumer Consumer Products Products Pricing Pricing Is Is Trending Trending Upward Upward ––The AwayThe Away--from Home from Home

Market Market Trends Trends Are Are

Less Less FavorableFavorable

Page 51: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

5151

Outlook Outlook –– Recovered FiberRecovered Fiber

$44

$35

$62 $62$67

$54

$62

$78$80

$81$83

$46

$0

$25

$50

$75

$100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Rea

l Rec

over

ed F

iber

Pric

e - U

.S. M

idw

est

($20

04 P

er S

hort

Ton

)

OCC#11 ONP#8

Recovered Recovered Fiber Is Fiber Is Creating Creating

Upward Cost Upward Cost PressuresPressures

Across Across Grades Grades –– & &

With China’s With China’s Needs Needs ––Pressure Pressure

Expected to Expected to SustainSustain

Page 52: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

5252

Outlook Outlook –– Energy Energy –– Oil and Natural GasOil and Natural Gas

$60+ Bbl Oil $60+ Bbl Oil & $7/Mcf & $7/Mcf

Natural Gas Natural Gas Will Create Will Create

GDP & GDP & Industry Industry

InstabilityInstability ––But Also But Also

Raise Value Raise Value Opportunity Opportunity For Wood To For Wood To

Fuel . . .

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

1/84 1/87 1/90 1/93 1/96 1/99 1/02 1/05

Nom

inal

Dol

lars

Per

Bar

rel

$-

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

$10

$ Pe

r Tho

usan

d C

ubic

Ft.

Oil Price Industrial Gas Price Fuel . . .

Page 53: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

5353

US Industry SpendingUS Industry Spending

History History –– Issues Issues –– DirectionsDirectionsCapital Spending Capital Spending –– Overview & OutlookOverview & OutlookProfitability & Capital TurnoverProfitability & Capital TurnoverROTC Versus Cost of CapitalROTC Versus Cost of CapitalDebt LevelsDebt LevelsProduction Capacity ExpectationsProduction Capacity ExpectationsCapital Spending/DepreciationCapital Spending/DepreciationCapital Spending LevelCapital Spending Level

Page 54: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

5454

US Industry US Industry –– Capital SpendingCapital SpendingUS US capital expenditures will continue to be depressedcapital expenditures will continue to be depressed by poor by poor financial performance & slowing of capacity growth financial performance & slowing of capacity growth ----

M&A crowded out CAPEX on PPE last 5 years M&A crowded out CAPEX on PPE last 5 years –– Should ease Should ease within largest firmswithin largest firms –– antitrust constraintsantitrust constraintsHowever, asset swaps & However, asset swaps & businessbusiness--line spinline spin--offs likely to offs likely to accelerateaccelerate + second+ second--tier players consolidationtier players consolidationThere is risk that unexpected international acquisitions There is risk that unexpected international acquisitions activity activity will interrupt capital spending patternswill interrupt capital spending patterns

Overall, net M&A impact should be better (less impacting) for CAPEX than the last 5 years – but not enough to offset weak

investment fundamentals yet.

Overall, net M&A impact should be better (less impacting) for Overall, net M&A impact should be better (less impacting) for CAPEX than the last 5 years CAPEX than the last 5 years –– but not enough to offset weak but not enough to offset weak

investment fundamentals yet.investment fundamentals yet.

Page 55: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

5555

US Industry US Industry –– Capital SpendingCapital Spending

Combination of economic, pulp and paper market, and Combination of economic, pulp and paper market, and financial / investment realities drove US capital financial / investment realities drove US capital expenditures down expenditures down from $8+ billion in 2000 to $6+ billionfrom $8+ billion in 2000 to $6+ billionby 2001 by 2001 ----

2005 capital expenditures 2005 capital expenditures will fall againwill fall again to $6 billion to $6 billion and then likely cycle between $6.0 billion and $8.5 and then likely cycle between $6.0 billion and $8.5 billion through 2006billion through 2006The following table and graphs summarize these The following table and graphs summarize these historical trends and projectionshistorical trends and projections

Page 56: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

5656

US Industry US Industry –– Capital SpendingCapital Spending

2,500

4,500

6,500

8,500

10,500

12,500

14,500

1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003

U.S

. Rea

l Cap

ital E

xpen

ditu

res

($20

04 -

Mill

ions

)

Capital Capital Expenditures Expenditures (CAPEX) (CAPEX) On On Pulp & Paper Pulp & Paper

Property, Property, Plant & Plant &

EquipmentEquipment(Nominal $ (Nominal $ Millions)Millions)

Page 57: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

5757

US Industry US Industry –– ProfitabilityProfitability

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%

10%

1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 Q2'05

MTD

Net

Ope

ratin

g Pr

ofit

Mar

gin

Afte

r-Ta

x

Profitability Profitability Has Improved, Has Improved, But But Continues Continues

To Trend To Trend Downward Downward ––

And Is And Is Expected To Expected To WeakenWeaken For For

the Remainder the Remainder of 2005of 2005

Page 58: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

5858

US Industry US Industry –– Capital TurnoverCapital Turnover

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003

Sale

s / T

otal

Inve

sted

Cap

ital

Capital Capital Turnover Is Turnover Is

TrendingTrendingDownward Downward Yet Also Yet Also

Has Has Rebounded Rebounded

& Trend& TrendMay Be May Be

FlatteningFlattening

Page 59: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

5959

US Industry US Industry –– Debt LevelsDebt Levels

Improved Improved Debt Levels Debt Levels

Are Still Are Still ConstrainingConstraining

Needed Needed Business Business

Investments Investments –– Yet Debt is Yet Debt is Now Now Much Much Lower Cost Lower Cost Than Equity

20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%

1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003

Deb

t To

Cap

ital R

atio

Debt % of Invested Capital Than Equity

Page 60: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

6060

US Industry US Industry –– Production Capacity ExpectationsProduction Capacity Expectations

75,000

85,000

95,000

105,000

115,000

125,000

135,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Nor

th A

mer

ican

Pap

er &

Boa

rd (S

T 00

0s)

Domestic Consumption Domestic Shipments Capacity

Total US Total US Paper & Paper & Board Board

Consumption Consumption Is Resuming Is Resuming

Growth Growth ––While Overall While Overall Capacity Capacity Is Is Relatively Relatively

FlatFlat

Page 61: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

6161

US Industry US Industry –– Capital Spending/DepreciationCapital Spending/Depreciation

US Capital US Capital Expenditures Expenditures

Remain Remain Significantly Significantly

Below Below Depreciation Depreciation LevelsLevels –– But But

Seem To Seem To Have Have

Stabilized0%

25%50%75%

100%125%150%175%200%225%250%275%300%

1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 Q2'05

MTD

PP&

E C

apita

l Exp

end

% o

f Dep

rec.

Stabilized

Page 62: State of the North American Pulp & Paper Industry Overview North America Pulp & Paper Industry --Update & Outlook Where are We? Industry Performance Economy Grade-By-Grade Discussion

6262

US Industry US Industry –– Investment Decisions’ DriversInvestment Decisions’ DriversAttractive Opportunities =Attractive Opportunities = More Likely To InvestMore Likely To Invest

Strong ROTCStrong ROTC == Proven capability to identify/execute Proven capability to identify/execute value creating projects value creating projects –– more likely to attract & invest more likely to attract & invest capital capital than poor performersthan poor performersGood Outlook Product MixGood Outlook Product Mix == More likely to invest (i.e. More likely to invest (i.e. tissue, selected P&W) tissue, selected P&W) than poorly performing segmentsthan poorly performing segments(i.e. boxboard, newsprint, UCF, market pulp)(i.e. boxboard, newsprint, UCF, market pulp)Geographic MixGeographic Mix == Firms in Higher growth geographic Firms in Higher growth geographic markets (i.e. Asia & Latin America) more likely to invest markets (i.e. Asia & Latin America) more likely to invest than US and Canadian than US and Canadian (and now some European)(and now some European)focused playersfocused players

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US Industry US Industry –– Investment Decisions’ DriversInvestment Decisions’ Drivers

Greater Capital Availability =Greater Capital Availability = More Likely To InvestMore Likely To InvestDebtDebt--ToTo--Capital RatioCapital Ratio == High debt % High debt % –– the more likely to the more likely to divert cash to lower debt instead for capital expendituresdivert cash to lower debt instead for capital expendituresDebt CapacityDebt Capacity == Low debt % Low debt % –– creates real opportunities creates real opportunities to use to use new low cost debtnew low cost debt for innovative investment for innovative investment movesmovesCash Flow Available For ReinvestmentCash Flow Available For Reinvestment == More cash More cash generated by operations, the more funds generated by operations, the more funds typically typically invested in the businessinvested in the business & to stimulate investors& to stimulate investors

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Recap & Final ThoughtsRecap & Final ThoughtsU.S. Pulp and paper industry U.S. Pulp and paper industry demand peaked circa demand peaked circa 20002000 –– closures will continue at a slower rate closures will continue at a slower rate but but best facilities will remain strongbest facilities will remain strongWill Will take years to reach 2000 levels again take years to reach 2000 levels again –– if everif everPulp and paper Pulp and paper NOT likely to be a source of growth NOT likely to be a source of growth for wood demandfor wood demand with current productswith current productsHowever, However, complete replacement by offshore complete replacement by offshore producers unlikelyproducers unlikely due to U.S. wood resources and due to U.S. wood resources and large absolute marketlarge absolute marketConstruction Construction boom won’t lastboom won’t last forever…forever…

Forestry industry needs to innovate alone or in conjunction with pulp and paper to develop new products

and markets (i.e. bio-refining).

Forestry industry needs to innovate alone or in Forestry industry needs to innovate alone or in conjunction with pulp and paper to develop new products conjunction with pulp and paper to develop new products

and markets (i.e. bioand markets (i.e. bio--refining).refining).

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Recap & Final ThoughtsRecap & Final ThoughtsThe essential focus we should have at The essential focus we should have at this place in our industry’s path forward this place in our industry’s path forward is that is that the future is ours to create the future is ours to create ––timidity will undermine our efforts . . .timidity will undermine our efforts . . .

And . . . In this context And . . . In this context –– our challenge is our challenge is reallyreally to seize the opportunities instead of to seize the opportunities instead of simply enjoying our respitesimply enjoying our respite –– to innovate to innovate and restructure in new and novel ways . . .and restructure in new and novel ways . . .

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And Remember . . . . And Remember . . . . Even though the Current Industry State of Even though the Current Industry State of Affairs is Still Unstable & Many Systemic Affairs is Still Unstable & Many Systemic Problems Remain Problems Remain ---- As that Famous Arm As that Famous Arm Chair Philosopher Ziggy Once Said . . . .Chair Philosopher Ziggy Once Said . . . .

““You can Complain Because You can Complain Because Roses have Thorns, or you can Roses have Thorns, or you can Rejoice Because Thorns have Rejoice Because Thorns have

Roses”Roses”

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Recap & Final ThoughtsRecap & Final Thoughts

Thank You! -- Copies Available At

www.valueresolution.com -- And -- [email protected]

Contact Information

Dan CenatempoPresident -- Value Resolution Group, Inc.770-522-8972 -- [email protected]

Jim McNuttExecutive Director – Center for Paper Business & Industry Studies404-894-5733 – [email protected]