state of the nation 16 - spotlight on 2013 election

State of the Nation Australia

Spotlight on Federal Election 2013 20th / 21st August 2013

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Australians’ Voting Intention

Base: Australian electors aged 18+

Source: Roy Morgan Research Multi-Mode Survey, August 16 – 18, 2013

51% 49%

Government Confidence 104pts

vs.

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Australia Today

[1] Roy Morgan Face-to-Face; August 10/11, 2013;

Australian population aged 14+

[2] Roy Morgan Face-to-Face Survey; July 2013;

Australian population aged 14+ in Workforce

[3] Roy Morgan Business Single Source; July 2013

Unemployment[2]

10.1% p 0.4

9.0% q 0.2

Under

Employment[2]

Consumer

Confidence[1]

113.9 p 1.4

117.3 p 4.7

Business

Confidence[3]

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Society

State of the Nation 2013

The Key Areas of Change

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Australia’s Population Society

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

18,711,300

15,000,000

17,500,000

20,000,000

22,500,000

25,000,000

Jun

98

Jun

99

Jun

00

Jun

01

Jun

02

Jun

03

Jun

04

Jun

05

Jun

06

Jun

07

Jun

08

Jun

09

Jun

10

Jun

11

Jun

12

Dec

12

(+22.4%)22,906,400

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Australia’s Population by Age Society

Base: Australian population aged 0+

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

19.6%

15.4%

15.4%

22.5%

27.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Jun

98

Jun

99

Jun

00

Jun

01

Jun

02

Jun

03

Jun

04

Jun

05

Jun

06

Jun

07

Jun

08

Jun

09

Jun

10

Jun

11

Jun

12

25-34 14.4%

14-24 14.8%

35-49 20.8%

50 and over 32.3%

0-13 17.6%

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Have a Degree Society


Source: Roy Morgan Research; 12 month moving average

14.7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jun

98

Jun

99

Jun

00

Jun

01

Jun

02

Jun

03

Jun

04

Jun

05

Jun

06

Jun

07

Jun

08

Jun

09

Jun

10

Jun

11

Jun

12

Jun

13

All Australians 14+ with Degree 27.2%

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Country of Birth Society

Base: Australian population aged 14+; *Approximately 6% are in the ‘Other’ category


4.2%

2.0%

7.9%

5.9%

76.7%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Jun

98

Jun

99

Jun

00

Jun

01

Jun

02

Jun

03

Jun

04

Jun

05

Jun

06

Jun

07

Jun

08

Jun

09

Jun

10

Jun

11

Jun

12

Jun

13

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%Australia (RHS) 71.1%

UK/Ireland (LHS)

7.1%

New Zealand (LHS) 3.1%

Europe (excl.UK/Ireland) (LHS)3.5%

Asia & Middle East (LHS) 9.5%

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Progressive Views Society



32.1%

28.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Jun

98

Jun

99

Jun

00

Jun

01

Jun

02

Jun

03

Jun

04

Jun

05

Jun

06

Jun

07

Jun

08

Jun

09

Jun

10

Jun

11

Jun

12

Jun

13

Progressive viewpoint on social

issues and social trends

37.7%

Attracted to new things and new ideas 35.8%

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Progressive Attitudes Society



23.2%

32.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jun

98

Jun

99

Jun

00

Jun

01

Jun

02

Jun

03

Jun

04

Jun

05

Jun

06

Jun

07

Jun

08

Jun

09

Jun

10

Jun

11

Jun

12

Jun

13

Homosexual couples should be allowed to adopt children

57.3%

Computers and technology give me more control over my life

39.4%

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Technology



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Telecommunications Technology Technology



40.3%

96.0%

29.3%

1.4%

19.2%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jun

98

Jun

99

Jun

00

Jun

01

Jun

02

Jun

03

Jun

04

Jun

05

Jun

06

Jun

07

Jun

08

Jun

09

Jun

10

Jun

11

Jun

12

Jun

13

Have Internet

connection at homeHave Broadband

service at home

73.5%

Have home phone connected

75.5%

Own or use a mobile phone

90.8%

79.8%

Subscribe to Pay

TV at home 29.1%

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The Rise in New Technology Products Technology

*Question revised April 2013



1.9%6.8%

16.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jun

98

Jun

99

Jun

00

Jun

01

Jun

02

Jun

03

Jun

04

Jun

05

Jun

06

Jun

07

Jun

08

Jun

09

Jun

10

Jun

11

Jun

12

Jun

13

Own a flat screen TV

(e.g. plasma or LCD)*

67.7%

55.8%

34.4%

Smartphone is Main

Mobile phone

Own a Tablet Computer

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Major Media Types Technology

* Data collection methodology changes April 2012 (Radio) and September 2012 (Pay TV)



94.5%

73.2%

29.8%

84.9%

55.3%

88.9%

35.3%

8.3%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jun

98

Jun

99

Jun

00

Jun

01

Jun

02

Jun

03

Jun

04

Jun

05

Jun

06

Jun

07

Jun

08

Jun

09

Jun

10

Jun

11

Jun

12

Jun

13

Newspapers

Internet

TV89.3%

Radio*

Cinema

26.9%

58.4%

Local/Community Newspapers33.9%

80.5%

Pay TV* 22.1%

Magazines

73.4%

62.6%

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Economy



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Level of Workforce Unemployment Economy

Source: Roy Morgan Research; Monthly data

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Monthly data

9.4%

6.9%

7.3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

% o

f w

ork

forc

e

Roy Morgan Research 10.1%

5.7%

5.7%ABS Seasonally Adjusted

ABS Original

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Australians in Employment Economy



55.7% (8.3mill)

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jun

98

Jun

99

Jun

00

Jun

01

Jun

02

Jun

03

Jun

04

Jun

05

Jun

06

Jun

07

Jun

08

Jun

09

Jun

10

Jun

11

Jun

12

Jun

13

Proportion of population employed59.4%

(11.3 mill)

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Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Weekly Short-Term Trend

Economy


Source: Roy Morgan Research; Weekly data

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

125.0

130.0

135.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr Ma Jun Jul Au Se Oct No De Jan Feb Mar Apr Ma Jun Jul Au Se Oct No De Jan Feb Mar Apr Ma Jun Jul Au

20132012

August 10/11 2013, RMCC - 113.9

20112

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Consumer Confidence and Business

Confidence

131.5

132.9

129.5

130.5

128.2

119.5

107.8

99.8

101.8

108.1

112.6

115.7 117.2

118.7

116.6

108.9

112.2

105.8 105.4

109.6

117.6

109.3

114.0

116.8

114.8

122.5 123.8 122.9

120.0

113.8 112.7

117.3 120.6 116.2

90

100

110

120

130

140C

on

fid

en

ce S

co

re

Business Confidence

Consumer Confidence

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Business Confidence State Breakdown Economy

Base: Australian Businesses

Source: Roy Morgan Research; May 2013 to July 2013

116.6 116.3

111.6 110.9

119.1

114.5

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Tasmania Victoria Western Australia New South Wales South Australia Queensland

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Voting Intention

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Long Term Voting Intention

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

Aug

-13

Jun-

13

Jun-

12

Jun-

11

Ele

ctio

n 201

0

Jun-

10

Jun-

09

Jun-

08

Ele

ctio

n 200

7

Jun-

07

Jun-

06

Jun-

05

Ele

ctio

n 200

4

Jun-

04

Jun-

03

Jun-

02

Ele

ctio

n 200

1

Jun-

01

Jun-

00

H o ward re-elected fo r 4th term at

2004 Elect io n. Latham's stumbles

and T asmanian T imber Unio n

suppo rt help H o ward to win.

L-N P (52.5%); A LP (47.5%)

C rean replaces B eazley as Oppn.

Leader af ter 2001 Elect io n defeat

Latham

replaces

C rean as

Oppn.

Leader in

D ec 2003

B eazley replaces

Latham as

Oppn. Leader

56%

44%

M alco lm T urnbull

replaces N elso n as

Oppn. Leader

T o ny A bbo tt

replaces T urnbull

as Oppn. Leader

Iraq War

begins

September 11 & War o n

T erro r in A fghanistan

Glo bal F inancial

C risis begins as

Lehman

B ro thers

bankrupts

R udd

Go vernment

st imulus

packages

B arack Obama

elected US

P resident

Oil @ $ 150 a

barrel

R B A raises interest rates to 12 year high o f 7 .25%

A WB Iraqi

bribery

scandal "Oil

fo r F o o d"

Geo rge B ush

re-elected as

US P resident

ALP: 49%

L-NP: 51%

Julia Gillard

pro po ses to

intro duce a price

o n carbo n by 2012

H o ward re-elected fo r a 3rd term at 2001

Elect io n so o n after September 11.

'C hildren Overbo ard' c laims and T ampa

refugees incident also help H o ward win.

L-N P (51%); A LP (49%)

R udd-led A LP wins Go vernment af ter 11

years in Oppo sit io n.

A LP (52.7%); L-N P (47.3%).

B rendan N elso n is the new Oppn. Leader

Julia Gillard elected after f irst

H ung P arliament since 1940.

A LP (50.1%); L-N P (49.9%)

ALP L-NP

Kevin R udd wins A LP

leadership ballo t

57-45 o ver Julia

Gillard

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Short Term Voting Intention

Federa

l Ele

ction 2

010

Aug 2

8/2

9 &

Sep 4

/5

Sep 1

8/1

9

Oct

9/1

0 &

16/1

7

Nov 6

/7 &

13/1

4

Dec

4/5

Dec

10-1

2*

Dec

11/1

2

Jan 1

5/1

6 &

22/2

3

Jan 2

9/3

0 &

Feb 5

/6

Feb 2

1-2

3*

Mar

5/6

Mar

12/1

3

Mar

19/2

0

Mar

26/2

7

April 9/1

0 &

16/1

7

May 3

-5*

May 1

4/1

5

May 3

1 -

June 2

*

June 1

1/1

2 &

18/1

9

July

9/1

0

July

16/1

7 &

23/2

4

Aug 9

/10

Aug 2

7/2

8 &

Sep 3

/4

Sep 2

4/2

5 &

Oct

1/2

Oct

15/1

6

Oct

25/2

6*

Nov 2

/3*

Nov 1

9/2

0

Dec

10/1

1 &

17/1

8

Jan 1

7/1

8*

Jan 2

8/2

9

Feb 7

/8

Feb 2

5/2

6

Mar

10/1

1 &

17/1

8

Mar

31/

April 1

April 17-1

9*

May 5

/6

May 1

2/1

3

May 2

6/2

7

June 9

/10

June 3

0/

July

1 &

7/8

July

28/2

9 &

Aug 4

/5

Sep 1

/2

Sep 1

7-2

0*

Sep 2

9/3

0 &

Oct

6/7

Oct

27/2

8 &

Nov 3

/4

Nov 2

7-2

9*

Dec

8/9

& 1

5/1

6

Jan 1

9/2

0 &

26/2

7

Feb 9

/10

Feb 2

8-M

ar

3

Mar

14-1

7

Mar

28-3

1

April 12-1

4

April 26-2

8

May 1

0-1

2

May 2

4-2

6

June 7

-10

June 2

1-2

3

June 2

8-3

0

July

12-1

4

July

26-2

8

Aug 9

-11

%

FEDERAL: TWO-PARTY PREFERREDL-NP ALP

L-NP:51%

ALP:49%

* Telephone

2010 Federal election won narrowly by the

ALP with the support of Independents.

The RBA raises interest rates

25bp in November to 4.75%.

Julia Gillard proposes to introduce

a price on carbon by mid 2012

The RBA cuts interest

rates 25bp in Nov &

Dec to 4.25%.

Julia Gillard defeats

Kevin Rudd 73-31 in

leadership challenge

The RBA cuts interest rates by 50bp in May 2012, 25bp in June, 25bp in October, 25bp in

December, 25bp in May 2013 and 25bp in August to a record low of 2.50%

2010 2011 2012 2013

Kevin Rudd wins the ALP leadership

ballot 57-45 over Julia Gillard

The two contentious tax proposals of the Gillard Govt. The

Carbon Tax and the MIning Tax are introduced on July 1, 2012

Aug 1

6-1

8

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Attitudes toward the Government Politics



57.8%

34.3%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Jun

98

Jun

99

Jun

00

Jun

01

Jun

02

Jun

03

Jun

04

Jun

05

Jun

06

Jun

07

Jun

08

Jun

09

Jun

10

Jun

11

Jun

12

Jun

13

The government is doing a good

job running the country29.6%

I don't trust the current Australian Government 59.6%

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Federal Election

2010 vs 2013

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Top 10 Issues 2010 and 2013

Base: Australian Electors aged 18+, Aug 2009 – Jul 2010;

35.4%

26.2%

21.4%

16.6%

16.6%

14.9%

14.3%

13.3%

12.6%

11.5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Keeping day to day living costs down

Improving health services and hospitals

Managing the economy

Open and honest government

Improving education

Reducing crime and maintaining law andorder

Reducing the taxes you and your family pay

The needs of families

Reducing the number of illegal migrantscoming to Australia

Global warming and climate change

36.4%

31.6%

22.7%

17.7%

16.8%

15.6%

14.9%

13.2%

13.3%

12.7%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Keeping day to day living costs down *

Improving health services and hospitals

Managing the economy

Reducing the taxes you and your familypay

Open and honest government

The needs of families

Improving education

Global warming and climate change

Fair workplace and employmentregulations

Reducing crime and maintaining lawand order

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Most Important Issues Facing the World


Source: Roy Morgan Research; Nation-wide telephone poll, April 12-13, 2013 (n = 656)

10%

52%

Terrorism & War

48%Economic

16%17%

12%

Environmental

0

20

40

60

Nov

05

Apr

-06

May

-08

Nov

-08

May

-09

Nov

-09

Feb-1

0

Jun-

10

Sep

-10

Dec

-10

Feb-1

1

Mar

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Oct-1

1

Jan-

12

Apr

-12

Jul-1

2

Nov

-12

Jan-

13

Apr

-13

Jul-1

3

Aug

-13

(%)

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Most Important Issues Facing Australia


Source: Roy Morgan Research; Nation-wide telephone poll, April 12-13, 2013 (n = 656)

1%

21%

49%

14%

7%

15%17%

4%

8%9%9%

4%5%

6%

0

20

40

60

Nov

05

Apr

-06

May

-08

Nov

-08

May

-09

Nov

-09

Feb-1

0

Jun-

10

Sep

-10

Dec

-10

Feb-1

1

Mar

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Oct

-11

Jan-

12

Apr

-12

Jul-1

2

Nov

-12

Jan-

13

Apr

-13

Jul-1

3

Aug

-13

(%)

Religion/

Immigration/

Human Rights

Economic Issues

Environmental

Issues Politics &

Leadership

Terrorism

& War

Social

Issues

Health Issues

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Most Important Problems facing the World 2010 vs 2013

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Most Important Problems facing Australia 2010 vs 2013

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Most Important Problems facing Australia 2010 vs 2013

Unemployment now seen as the most important

issue by 11% ( up from 4%)

Real Unemployment now 10% ( up from 6% in

2010)

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The Economy/ Economic/ Interest Rate problems

(21%)

“The economy. Everyone just keeps borrowing money – but who is

going to pay for it?”

“Economics. There is not enough money to go around and

businesses are closing down.”

“The economy. It is the engine for the country, but the economy is the

main thing.”

“I think it is the economy. We need to get the Australian economy

going, or else Australia will just not be right.” “The major issue is

probably the economy. Particularly in relation to government debt.”

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Refugees & Asylum Seeker Problems (12%)

“Asylum seekers are at the top of my list. Normal asylum seekers or people

who come into the country are fine, but not people who come in through the

back door.”

“All these boat people coming here, it’s a huge problem.”

“Asylum seekers. They should come the proper way, via the refugee

channels, not by boats.”

“The boat people are our biggest problem at the moment. All our money is

going elsewhere to deal with the problem.”

“Boat people. Too many. I think they should know English before they come

into this country.”

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Unemployment Problems (11%)

“Employment and unemployment. There is not enough work for younger

people these days.”

“Unemployment. The availability of secure jobs for people these days.”

“Employment – and the lack of employment.”

“Job security is low.”

“Losing jobs to overseas.”

“Unemployment and what’s happening with our farmers & orchardists. We

need to keep work for our people & safe food.”

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Politics/ Leadership/ Kevin Rudd/ Tony Abbot

Problems (8%)

“The parliamentary system. The system itself is broken.”

”Politicians. They’re all just blood-suckers.”

“Politics in general. Most of them don’t do it well.”

“The fact that both sides of politics are involved in trying to outwit each other

rather than better Australia.”

“The absolute lack of good government and lack of sensible in politics.”

”The lack of vision and leadership from our politicians.”

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Consumer Confidence - Electors 2010 vs 2013

122.7

114.5

100

105

110

115

120

125

July 2010 July 2013

Base: Australian Electors aged 18+, Aug 2009 – Jul 2010 and Aug 2012 – Jul 2013;

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Economic Attitudes - Electors 2010 vs 2013

68.0% 67.3%

40.5%

33.6%

67.7%

31.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

The Australian economy appears to beimproving

Recently I've cut down my spending I'm worried about interest rates at themoment

July 2010 July 2013


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Government Attitudes - Electors 2010 vs 2013

30.9%

59.3%

47.9%

43.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

The Government is doing a good job running the country I don't trust the current Australian Government

July 2010 July 2013


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Progressive Attitudes - Electors 2010 vs 2013

34.7%32.9%

37.6%

35.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Progressive viewpoint on social issues and trends Attracted to new ideas and new things

July 2010 July 2013


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Progressive Attitudes - Electors (cont) 2010 vs 2013

44.7%

34.3%

55.4%

37.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Homosexual couples should be allowed to adoptchildren

Computers and technology give me more control overmy life

July 2010 July 2013


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Which Party is Considered

Better for Key Issues

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Which party is better for Health?

45.0%

34.6%31.3%

35.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

July 2010 July 2013

ALP Considered Better L-NP Considered Better


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Which party is better for Economy?

37.0%

28.6%

44.8% 45.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

July 2010 July 2013



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Which party is better for Honest

Government?

28.7%

20.3%

27.1%

30.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

July 2010 July 2013



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Which party is better for Education?

45.6%

35.9%

31.4%34.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

July 2010 July 2013



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Which party is better for Global Warming?

25.5%23.7%

20.0%

23.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

July 2010 July 2013



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Issues of Importance by

Electorate

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Issues in Key Marginal Seats (2013) ALP L/NP

Electorate Top 5 Issues Bottom 5 Issues Electorate Top 5 Issues Bottom 5 Issues

Deakin VIC 0.6%

Costs Rural needs

Hasluck WA 0.6%

Costs Rural needs Health Defence Crime Defence Economy Business Health Business Global Warming Interest rates Illegal migrants Workplace Government Immigration Economy Interest rates

Lindsay NSW 1.1%

Costs Rural needs

Aston VIC 0.7%

Costs Rural needs Health Business Health Defence Taxes Immigration Economy Immigration Economy Workplace Education Business Illegal migrants Global Warming Global Warming Illegal migrants

Moreton QLD 1.1%

Costs Rural needs

Brisbane QLD 1.1%

Economy Rural needs

Economy Defence Costs Defence Health Immigration Health Interest rates Government Unemployment Government Illegal migrants Education Interest rates Education Immigration

Lingiari NT 3.7%

Costs Unemployment

Forde* QLD 1.6%

Costs Global Warming

Crime Business Crime Rural needs Government Interest rates Illegal migrants Interest rates Health Workplace Government Defence Economy Ageing Health Business

Eden-Monaro NSW 4.2%

Health Business

Bennelong** NSW 3.1%

Costs Rural needs

Costs Defence Health Defence Government Unemployment Economy Ageing Ageing Rural needs Education Immigration Economy Immigration Government Unemployment

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Consumer Confidence

High: Moore WA 135.8 Low: Fowler NSW 91.0

Base: Australians Electors aged 18+

Source: Roy Morgan Research Single Source; Jul 2012 – Jun 2013

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Unemployment

High: Fowler NSW 21.0% Low: Riverina NSW 0.1%


Source: Roy Morgan Research Single Source; Jul 2012 – Jun 2013

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Health Services and Hospitals

High: Lyons TAS 46.2% Low: Moore WA 16.4%


Source: Roy Morgan Research Single Source; Oct 2010 – Jun 2013

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Managing the Economy

High: Brisbane QLD 37.6% Low: Durack WA 12.2%



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Open and Honest Government

High: Grayndler NSW 25.8% Low: Corangamite VIC 10.3%



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Improving Education

High: Melbourne VIC 31.7% Low: Canning WA 6.0%



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Illegal Immigrants

High: Maranoa QLD 22.5% Low: Melbourne Ports VIC 2.8%



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Global Warming

High: Kooyong VIC 31.6% Low: Capricornia QLD 3.1%



state of the nation 16 - spotlight on 2013 election

News & Politics