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BritainThinks | Private and Confidential

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Swing Seat SpotlightGeneral Election 2017

Constituency Updates

Introduction

2BritainThinks | Private and Confidential

Swing Seat Spotlight

The research

BritainThinks is collaborating with the Guardian during the 2017 General Election campaign. While the main party strategists’ daily struggle will be to impose their carefully honed campaign grids on to the media cycle, we will see the election through voters’ eyes: how much – and what - they are noticing, and what, if anything, actually persuades.

Using an innovative combination of online research methods and more traditional face-to-face research approaches, we aim to get under the skin of undecided voters in six key constituencies – Glasgow East, Wells, Birmingham Erdington, Harrow West, Cambridge and Hartlepool.

Each week, BritainThinks will produce a short written summary of the key insights from the research that has been conducted in each constituency during that week.

These insights will be added to this document on a rolling basis throughout the project, providing a reference point for all the findings gathered during the course of the study.

Introduction

The research approach


Methodology

We are conducting an online community among 12-15 “swing voters” in each of six key constituencies around the UK (given below). Participants in the project are people who fit the following profile:• All certain to turn out on June 8th

• All undecided about who to vote for, but considering front-runner parties in each constituency• At least 3 Remain voters and 3 Leave voters in each constituency• Mix by age, gender, socio-economic grade and ethnicity, to reflect profile of each constituency

Participants are asked to log on to an online community for at least one hour per week, and complete a range of tasks including answering questions on an individual basis and contributing to group discussions.

We are also conducting a 90 minute focus group in each constituency with these voters.

Fieldwork started on 9th May 2017 and is scheduled to run until after the General Election.

Hartlepool Birmingham Erdington Cambridge Wells Harrow

WestGlasgow

East

Swing Seat Spotlight The research approach


Constituency Updates

• June 7th: Glasgow• June 6th: Wells• June 5th: Cambridge• June 2nd: Hartlepool• June 2nd: Birmingham Erdington • June 1st: Harrow West• May 31st: Glasgow East• May 30th: Cambridge• May 30th: Wells• May 26th: Hartlepool• May 26th: Birmingham Erdington• May 25th: Harrow West

• May 24th: Glasgow East• May 23rd Wells• May 22nd: Cambridge• May 19th: Hartlepool• May 19th: Birmingham Erdington • May 18th: Harrow West• May 17th: Glasgow East• May 16th: Wells• May 15th: Cambridge• May 12th: Hartlepool• May 12th: Birmingham Erdington


June 7th: SNP’s party brand still strong in Glasgow East

Methodological note: this summary is based on qualitative research conducted among 12-15 “swing voters” in each constituency. Analysis here should therefore be treated as indicative, rather than representative.

Image courtesy of the Guardian BritainThinks | The Guardian

Swing Seat Spotlight Constituency Update – Glasgow East

Key insights

1. The improved performance of Labour and the shifts in the polls have been noticed by our undecided voters in Glasgow East. Several of our voters, who at the beginning of the election campaign were only considering voting for either the SNP or the Conservatives, have been so impressed by Labour’s policies and Jeremy Corbyn’s performance in recent weeks that they are now considering voting for Labour.

2. Ruth Davidson has had some success in improving the image of the Conservative party amongst our undecided voters. However, the stereotype of Conservatives as posh and out of touch still persists. When asked to imagine what a Conservative might eat, drink or drive, popular answers include caviar, champagne and range rovers. However, for those concerned with protecting the Union, Conservatives are seen as the best bet for a strong government, who can hold the country together.

3. Although the SNP remain divisive, the majority of our undecided voters see the party as driven by a desire for fairness and protecting the vulnerable. Yet, even among those supporting the SNP, there is some unease at what is seen as their single-minded focus on independence at the expense of other issues, such as the NHS and education.

June 7th: Key quotes from Glasgow East


My opinion hasn't really changed that much, it's maybe more positive now with Ruth Davidson. I think she is a strong leader, but in general I think the Conservatives have always spoken for the rich and I don't think they can relate to normal hardworking families, many of them have had private education and don't understand the struggles of real people.

Rae, Glasgow East

[If the election was tomorrow] I would possibly vote for Labour as I have been impressed with their policies.

Robert, Glasgow East

I heard someone say ‘I'm voting for NNN’. I says ‘What's that a new party?’ they says ‘No, it's No Nonsense Nicola’.

Jamie, Glasgow East

I see them [the SNP] as a party for independence, if anything they've got more militant about it.

Stephen, Glasgow East

[I would vote for the] Conservatives. We need strong government to tackle security, Brexit and maintaining the Union.

Ronnie, Glasgow East

When I think of the SNP, I think most of the future, progression, fairness, equality, and diversity. I think they represent a positive step toward the future.

Hayden, Glasgow East


Image courtesy of the Guardian BritainThinks | The Guardian

Swing Seat Spotlight Constituency Update – Wells

June 6th: Theresa May seen as best PM for Brexit by Wells swing voters, in spite of a wobbly campaign

Methodological note: this summary is based on qualitative research conducted among 12-15 “swing voters” in each constituency. Analysis here should therefore be treated as indicative, rather than representative.Image courtesy of the Guardian BritainThinks | The Guardian

Key insights

1. Theresa May has had a poor campaign, according to Wells swing voters. More than any other single policy issue, the Tory social care u-turn (which these voters refer to as the ‘dementia tax’) has dominated their view of the election, and dented May’s ‘decisive’ reputation. She has also been criticised for ‘wooden’ media appearances – and for failing to turn up to the televised leaders’ debate.

2. Nonetheless, May is seen as the best-placed leader to negotiate a good Brexit deal for the UK. For many of these voters, Brexit remains the single most important issue affecting their voting intention, and May is seen as the strongest, most capable negotiator of the available options. When asked which animal she most closely resembles, May is often compared to a lion or lioness – a fighter for British interests.

3. The Liberal Democrats are viewed as ‘nice’ and inoffensive (but a bit bland), while the Tories have not shed their ‘posh’ reputation. When asked to picture a Liberal Democrat, our swing voters think of middle-of-the-road family cars and international food. Tories conjure up images of Bentleys and champagne – and these voters think they represent the interests of the upper classes.


BritainThinks | The Guardian


6th June: Key quotes from Wells

[When I picture a Conservative] they would be a Managing Director of a company, drive a Mercedes or a Range Rover, drink champagne and eat lobster thermidor.

Jilly, Wells

Theresa May not turning up for election debate [struck me]. I think it made her look foolish. She should have been there - her reason for not being there was very feeble.

Jackie, Wells

The primary issue is who is best placed and experienced to negotiate with the EU leaders, and in this regard, I don't think there is much of a contest.

Martin, Wells

[I will vote] Conservative; because my focus is on the National situation. However, I would normally vote Lib Dem locally. Local issues are secondary just now and are in danger of being trivialised because of Brexit.

Martin, Wells

Lib Dems are the kind of people who have gnomes in their gardens and giant butterflies on the side of their houses. They are optimistic, artsy, and have their head in the clouds a bit.

Mary, Wells

Constituency Update – Wells

[The best leader] is going to get the best deal for the UK. Corbyn's wish to 'talk' with everyone is not, in my mind, the best way.

Gareth, Wells

June 5th: Labour’s brand seen as more working class than Liberal Democrats’



Key insights

1. Combatting terrorism has become more of a priority for our Cambridge swing voters, with some saying that this is now the most important issue shaping their voting decision. However, it is not the only issue – others (categorised as devastated pessimists in our Brexit segmentation) still say that Brexit is the most important issue for them. Some of those who would like to vote on Brexit say that they have been forced to base their vote on other issues because there are no suitable options available.

2. The Labour party brand is more closely associated with working people than it was in the past – Labour is associated with “ordinary” jobs such as teaching or nursing, and unflashy cars, such as a Ford Fiesta or a Vauxhall Astra.

3. The Liberal Democrat brand is seen as out of touch with many ordinary people – swing voters associate them with working in academia and with slightly more upmarket cars, such as a Toyota Prius.

Constituency Update – Cambridge

June 5th: Key quotes from Cambridge



Swing Seat Spotlight Constituency Update – Cambridge

[If they were a person, Labour would] work in education or nursing, drive a Ford Fiesta, drink diet fizzy drinks and eat fish & chips.

Jessica, Cambridge

[If they were a person, Labour would be] a tradesman like a plumber, any Vauxhall, pint and burger

Nick, Cambridge

[If they were a person, Liberal Democrats would ] work in IT, but they wouldn't be at the forefront of IT. They would drive a Ford Focus.

Jonathan, Cambridge

The party's anti-terror policies...We live in a time of great uncertainty and an ever present fear of a terror attack. The Conservatives have had several years to implement their policies and yet terror suspects are still allowed to travel to high-risk countries and return to the UK unchecked. Also our current strategies aren't deterring or indeed preventing radicalisation.

Sade, Cambridge

There is no outright anti Brexit party so now it is important to vote for the party that best represents my views on other issues.

Erol, Cambridge



Constituency Update – Birmingham Erdington

June 2nd: Birmingham Erdington’s swing voters see little to be excited about in the national candidates

Key insights

1. Our undecided voters were not impressed by Theresa May’s performance over the last week. Many thought she performed poorly in the election programmes and get the sense she does not want to answer difficult questions or talk about her ideas with the British public.

2. Corbyn was thought to perform better than May in the first leaders programme of the week. Our undecided voters felt he communicated his policies better than they had expected. While many seem to be warming to Corbyn, concerns still remain amongst some that he would not be a good Prime Minister

3. When describing their ‘ideal leader’, our undecided voters are looking for someone with experience outside of politics who can look out for ‘working peoples’ interests. Voters wanted to see someone from a ‘normal’ family who had worked they way up but still had experience with the issues they care about like schools and the NHS.

4. Their ‘ideal leader’ is straight talking and cares more about the wellbeing of the British people than their own interests. Our participants said this would what differentiates them from the leaders running at this election who they cannot trust to put politics aside and stand up for them.

Swing Seat Spotlight Constituency Update – Birmingham Erdington

June 2nd: Key quotes from Birmingham Erdington

Theresa May dodged the difficult questions again as she always does. Theresa May or Maybe not. She is not being clear on - how can people make an informed discussion.

Mary, Birmingham Erdington

I hear what Jeremy Corbyn is saying and I do like it but still worry about his strengths and can the Labour Party led by him deliver on the promises.

Steve, Birmingham Erdington

I liked Jeremy Corbyn he seemed more genuine I think Theresa May always seems like she's got something to hide.

Denise, Birmingham Erdington

Because the politics wouldn’t be the main focus but this person would put that aside and put the people first not politics and what's right and wrong he would just follow the views of what people want.

Claire, Birmingham Erdington

My ideal leader doesn’t care about the votes or the power of winning, they truly want to make a difference.

Nicole, Birmingham Erdington

My ideal leader would have led a middle class life so they know how the working people live.

Carrie, Birmingham Erdington



June 2nd: In Hartlepool, Brexit being trumped by the NHS for ‘swing’ voters



Key insights

1. With less than a week to go, this has not turned out to be the ‘Brexit election’ that many predicted. Although these voters feel that Brexit is a crucial issue, there is a sense that the question is ‘done and dusted’ and that the country should move on to other issues.

2. Instead, pressure on public services is at the top of undecided voters’ list of priorities. Above all, there are concerns about the future of the NHS and the mounting sense of ‘crisis’. Social care funding and education are also seen as priority issues. Few mention controlling immigration (in part due to the sense that the government will have more control over the issue following Brexit), and on the whole the issue appears to be less of a priority than in 2015.

3. The reputations of the party leaders have diverged from the reputation of their parties. Although there is a deeply-held perception that the Conservatives are ‘posh’ and a party for the rich (with many spontaneously mentioning fox hunting), undecided voters are generally positive about Theresa May, who is seen as a ‘strong’ and ‘decisive’ leader. Labour are seen as the party with the best interests of working people at heart, but scepticism about Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership persists (and recent allegations of links between Corbyn and the IRA appear to have cut through).

Constituency Update – Hartlepool

June 2nd: Key quotes from Hartlepool




The [most memorable thing I’ve heard is] the social care plans. Not for the right reasons. If elderly people don't have it hard enough. The fact they made a U turn says it all.

Carl, Hartlepool

I think that [Brexit] was hot topic in the first half of the year as article 50 was invoked, but now it has been, I think other areas have come into focus: the state of the NHS, schools and housing have gained in prominence. With this Labour’s popularity has grown.

Andy, Hartlepool

I think [Brexit] will make a huge impact but I would be more concerned about our NHS and education and social care.

Sharon, Hartlepool


I believe [Labour’s] policies are the closest to what I believe, and if their leader did not have certain beliefs or attitudes towards trident, the armed forces, terrorism etc. then they would get my vote.

Ian, Hartlepool

Labour was always my parents’ vote and I usually follow their lead even now.

Joanne, Hartlepool

[Brexit] shouldn't even be an issue. The referendum gave a clear result and the government in power should respect this choice of the country.

Tim, Hartlepool

Swing Seat Spotlight Constituency Update – Harrow West


June 1st: Undecided voters in Harrow West are not tuning in to TV debates, but are still making judgements on the leaders’ performances

Key insights

1. The majority of our undecided voters did not watch the Paxman interviews with Corbyn and May either live or in full. Instead, judgements on the performance of the two contenders have been made based on short clips seen on social media or through the accounts of friends or family. This often serves to confirm existing impressions of the two leaders.

2. Our undecided voters who saw parts of the interviews were impressed by Jeremy Corbyn’s calm approach, and felt that Theresa May had stumbled. There was a sense that Corbyn appeared far more at ease around the general public, compared to May’s awkward performance. However, for those still undecided or leaning towards the Conservatives, Theresa May was still judged to have given the strongest answers when it came down to the big questions, particularly in relation to Brexit.

3. Our voters were surprised at Theresa May’s decision to not take part in the BBC leaders’ debate. This decision was seen as driven by either cowardice or complacency. Even those voters who admitted that they would be unlikely to watch such a debate were disappointed to learn that May would not be taking part.




Methodological note: this summary is based on qualitative research conducted among 12-15 “swing voters” in each constituency. Analysis here should therefore be treated as indicative, rather than representative

I was told by a work colleague that Corbyn came off poorly. He did not know some figures relating to education costs. It made him look incompetent.

Leonard, Harrow West

If Theresa May wants the power then she needs to be present otherwise she will be seen as a wuss not willing to face the British public.

Sonam, Harrow West

I saw responses on Twitter which rated Corbyn as relaxed and open where May was rattled and repeating slogans. I watched some short clips which illustrated these views. Corbyn came across very well. I was disappointed to see newspaper headlines taking a very different view.

Sarah, Harrow West

I like Corbyn's calm approach, but May seemed to win the respect of the audience with her hard stance on the forthcoming Brexit negotiations. Having watched the highlights, I felt that Corbyn performed better on all aspects apart from when May talked about the Brexit deal, where the audience seemed to respond very positively to her comments.

Deborah, Harrow West

June 1st: Key quotes from Harrow West

Constituency Update – Harrow West

I think that Jeremy had a better impact on the general public compared to Theresa May, in my opinion. Theresa May seemed uncomfortable and less prepared, that notion of strong and stable is under question.

Zengin, Harrow West



May 31st: Glasgow East’s undecided voters continue to feel removed from the General Election

Key insights

1. The General Election still feels very distant for our undecided voters in Glasgow East. The contest for the UK government, which is seen as a two-way race between Labour and the Conservatives, feels very alien to Glasgow East voters, who are far more focused on the future of Scotland and particularly the actions of the SNP, whether they support them or not. Our voters are also confused that there seems to be very little campaigning in their local area, and they remain unsure who their local candidates are.

2. Our undecided voters agree that events in Manchester have been handled well by all political leaders. A few were uncomfortable with Jeremy Corbyn’scomments on the link between foreign policy and terrorism, but all agreed that the attack and its fallout would have no impact on their vote. For a minority of our voters, the reaction to the events has given them a renewed sense of national unity, and has made them more determined to avoid independence.

3. For those undecided voters who watched the Paxman interviews, there is some agreement that Corbyn performed better than May, who seemed robotic and rehearsed. However, only one participant so far feels that this may impact on her vote, and perhaps lead her to vote Labour.




Methodological note: this summary is based on qualitative research conducted among 12-15 “swing voters” in each constituency. Analysis here should therefore be treated as indicative, rather than representative

Constituency Update – Glasgow East

May 31st: Key quotes from Glasgow East

So far [the SNP] haven't given me a reason not to vote for them. In Scotland I feel like SNP offer another credible alternative whereas in England the only two parties that you can realistically choose are Labour or Conservatives, and I don't think either are good enough at the moment.

Hayden, Glasgow East

All the leading politicians have given a great impression of unity. They're all stating the same things. They're manifestos seemed to have been put aside until the people of Britain have recovered.

Rena, Glasgow East

I really feel now I could vote for Labour. I was definitely impressed by Jeremy and I liked his policies on his manifesto. I feel the Conservatives are more likely to U-turn just to get the votes.

Rae, Glasgow East

I still haven't noticed any campaigning locally which does puzzle me as the election draws nearer, there haven't even been the posters on lampposts or anything!

Donna, Glasgow East

I think the response from Theresa May and Nicola Sturgeon have been measured and appropriate, I am disappointed in Jeremy Corbyn's response to more or less blame the UK's role in overseas interventions.

Ronnie, Glasgow East

May 30th: No clear winner from Paxman for Cambridge swing voters



Key insights

1. Reactions to Monday’s leader interviews with Jeremy Paxman are mixed. Those for whom Brexit is the overriding concern at this election believe that Theresa May performed better, while others believe Jeremy Corbyn was stronger. It is noticeable that the media narrative (that Corbyn was the better perfomer) is not necessarily reflected among our undecided voters.

2. There is a general perception that Labour are running a strong campaign – average scores for Labour’s performance in the local area are high, and voters report agreeing with a lot of the Labour policy proposals that are being put forward.

3. At the same time, the Liberal Democrats are perceived to be doing well at a local level – there is strong trust in the local candidate and voters say that the party is campaigning on the right issues in Cambridge. Voters believe that party is doing poorly nationally, however.


May 30th: Key quotes from Cambridge



I think that Teresa May did better, particularly when pressed about brexit negotiations which is a big issue for me in this election. She was clear that she would not accept a bad deal and that no deal would be better. I felt that Jeremy Corbyn (JC) lost his cool when questioned hard about several issues and i do believe it is a concern that the manifesto does not represent his views as his party does not agree with his views.

Jack, Cambridge

To me Brexit is huge as it directly affects my job role and career path. If we are no longer able to receive EC research funding in the UK this is going to be devastating

Katie, Cambridge


Many people try to frame this as the "Brexit election". Ironically I find myself leaning towards the Lib Dems because I disagree with them on Brexit but align with them for pretty much all the other important policies at stake in this election.

Deryck, Cambridge

[On Paxman] I heard J. Corbyn did well and there were no gaffes but it wasn't so great that it would be very memorable.

Laura, Cambridge

Swing Seat Spotlight Constituency Update – Wells

May 30th: The Lib Dems still have a long way to go to convince undecided voters in Wells


Key insights

1. The Lib Dems are not winning support among our undecided voters by promising a second Brexit referendum. Although many of our undecided voters are keen to avoid a ‘hard’ Brexit, the result of the EU Referendum is seen as a done deal, and neither Remain nor Leave voters want to see the decision undermined. Our undecided voters in Wells want reassurance on Brexit, and feel that only the Conservatives seem to have a plan currently.

2. Our undecided voters feel that Theresa May handled the events in Manchester well. Although our participants were keen to avoid any political point scoring in the aftermath of the attack, several commented on May’s ‘statesman-like’ handling of the event. Jeremy Corbyn’s comments on the link between foreign policy and terrorism reached a couple of participants, who were divided on whether they agreed with his assessment.

3. The majority still believe that the Conservatives will win the General Election. There is recognition that Theresa May has faltered over previous weeks, with ill-judged policies such as fox hunting and the social care U-Turn, and anumber of our undecided voters have noticed the change in the polls in Labour’s favour. However, this is yet to impact on any participant’s voting intention.




May 30th: Key quotes from Wells

I think the policy on social care and Theresa May's so called 'u' turn. This wasn't a 'u' turn but it was a gaff that I didn't expect from the Tories.

Martin, Wells

I think the Conservatives will win, though I notice that the polls this week are rather different.

Mary, Wells

I heard Jeremy Corbyn talking about the link between Foreign Policy and Terror attacks - I genuinely think he's wrong.

Vicky, Wells

I am annoyed that the Lib Dems have stated part of the manifesto is to revisit the Brexit vote. Whilst I disagreed with the vote, I believe that the country, rightly or wrongly, made a decision and it should be followed through. The Lib Dems are unpicking this very democratic principle and they have gone done in my estimations as a result.

Gareth, WellsMeasured and correct. [Theresa May] is showing, to me anyway, that she is a good statesperson for the country.

Nick, Wells


May 26th: Voters say Manchester attack will not affect vote choice



Key insights

1. Our swing voters report that the Manchester attack has not affected how they plan to vote. This viewpoint appears to be driven by a perception that all of the major parties are trying to combat terrorism and would adopt similar responses in the face of such challenges.

2. Hartlepool swing voters do not report seeing political advertisements via social media. Previous weeks have highlighted that the election has low cut-through in Hartlepool, with few of our undecided voters reporting having seen much in the way of campaigning. This appears to translate into social media as well – very few of our undecided voters report seeing any social media targeted advertisements.

3. Labour are increasingly perceived to be fighting a good campaign –for some, this is in contrast to the Conservatives who are perceived to have suffered a few mis-steps recently. However, many are still considering voting for both parties.


May 26th: Key quotes from Hartlepool



I'm not sure which way I'm going to vote. My family are Labour, I myself have voted Tory in the past, & with Teresa May saying she is thinking of putting a vote to lift the ban on fox hunting, well that will change my mind towards the Tory group.

Eddie, Hartlepool

[I’ve seen] No official advertising from the political parties - just lots of posts and political content from friends.

Andrew, Hartlepool

[On impact of Manchester] Probably not much to be honest. No matter who you were and what party it was a tragedy.

Carl, Hartlepool


No party is strong enough to take the drastic measures that is required so it won't make much difference.

Ian, Hartlepool

Up until very recently I was Conservative but Labour have impressed me lately.

Francesca, Hartlepool

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Swing Seat Spotlight Constituency Update – Birmingham Erdington

May 26th: Theresa May’s U-turn seen as cynical by Birmingham Erdington’s swing voters


Key insights

1. Our undecided voters were not impressed by Theresa May’s U-turn, and interpreted it as putting a cynical attempt to secure more votes above having true principles which guide her policies. However, for the majority, it has not impacted on how they intend to vote. Although the U-turn was believed to be ‘sneaky’, it was seen in the context of the belief that all politicians will say whatever they need to to win votes. It may not have done Theresa May any favours, but it did not single her out from the sea of ‘dishonest’ politicians.

2. When provided with a list of progressive policies such as protecting workers’ rights, our undecided voters tend to expect these to have come from Labour. When informed that these are in fact Conservative policies, voters are divided between being either pleasantly surprised (mainly for those already leaning towards the Conservatives) or, for those leaning towards Labour, seeing it as an attempt to win working class votes with false promises. Overall, leadership continues to matter more than policies for our undecided voters.

3. The events in Manchester have not had an impact on how our undecided voters might vote. Although there is praise for how Theresa May has handled the attack and its aftermath, which for many has cemented her image as a strong and calm leader, there is little suspicion that Jeremy Corbyn or Labour would have handled events differently.

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May 26th: Key quotes from Birmingham Erdington



I do think that the Conservatives will return to power. Having looked at the manifestos of Labour and the Conservatives I personally think the Labour one is better. My only concern is that Jeremy Corbyn may not be able to deliver on the promises. My other thought is can we really believe that any of the parties are going to do what they say once they are in power.

Steve, Birmingham Erdington

I think the Conservatives are trying to position themselves as the party for the working class. However, I think if they are re-elected they would do what politicians do and look after their financial backers and forget all the promises they made.

Nathan, Birmingham Erdington


I don't think Jeremy Corbyn is a credible world leader and I would have to vote for Theresa May, also to guide us through our departure from Europe.

Andrew, Birmingham Erdington

[The U-turn made me] less likely to vote for them, but after watching today's terrible events I think that Theresa May has handled this emergency situation very well. So she has made me have more confidence in her party.

Claire, Birmingham Erdington

It doesn't make any difference. I would like to think that whatever party gets into power they would always be working on the threat of terrorism without the need to put that into their manifesto.

Nicola, Birmingham Erdington

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May 25th: In the wake of last week’s manifesto releases Harrow West begins to pick sides

Key insights

1. Our undecided voters are increasingly certain about how they will vote in the General Election. In the wake of the manifesto releases our undecided voters report feeling they have a better idea of what they are voting for. Those leaning towards the Conservatives tend to be focused on Brexit, whilst those leaning towards Labour are more focused on the NHS, education and housing.

2. Our undecided voters are feeling increasingly certain that the Conservatives will win the General Election. Regardless of voting intention, nearly all our undecided voters feel the Conservatives will win the election. For those leaning towards the Conservatives, a larger majority is seen as important for the coming Brexit negotiations. Those leaning towards Labour feel that little, if anything, will change in Harrow West as a result of the General Election.

3. Theresa May’s social care policy U-turn has cut through, but hasn’t changed the perception that she represents ‘strong and stable’ leadership. Whilst our undecided voters are all aware of the policy U-turn, most feel that it represents Theresa May ‘chasing votes’ rather than being ’weak and wobbly’. News about the U-turn has also, subsequently, been overshadowed by the Manchester terror attack.

28Methodological note: this summary is based on qualitative research conducted among 12-15 “swing voters” in each constituency. Analysis here should therefore be treated as indicative, rather than representative.


[I would vote] Conservative as May is doing a good job so far.

Sonam, Harrow West

[Brexit is] less of a factor than I thought it would be. I don’t want a hard Brexit so I am looking to vote accordingly, but I’m more concerned with other domestic policies than I thought I would be.

Leonard, Harrow West

[The U-turn made me think] Theresa May is responsive to negative headlines.

Simon, Harrow West

I’m a bit interested in it [Brexit], however whichever party I vote for, it’s going to take place whether we like it or not.

Anjalee, Harrow West

[The result will be] Definitely a win for the Conservatives, but with a stronger majority than now or roughly the same I'm not too sure about that. These last few manifestos have put doubt in people whether or not there will be a landslide win for the Conservatives or not. They will win regardless.

Zengin, Harrow West

May 25th: Key quotes from Harrow West


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May 24th: Glasgow East voters divided between a ‘good’ Brexit or Scottish independence

Key insights

1. Those who are becoming more decided on how they will vote are often driven by whether they see Scottish independence or securing a good Brexit deal as the biggest issue. For voters concerned with Brexit, regardless of whether they voted leave or remain, it is felt that only the Conservatives have provided a clear plan for leaving the EU. The SNP in particular are seen as too focused on their opposition to Brexit to have a plan for protecting Scotland during negotiations. The SNP are naturally attracting those who want independence and who continue to admire Nicola Sturgeon for ‘standing up’ for Scotland.

2. There is speculation among our undecided voters that this election will mark the Conservatives’ greatest success in Scotland for many years. It is taken for granted that the Conservatives will stay in government due to English voters. Yet, some who have never considered voting Conservative before hope that the SNP’s grip on Scotland may be loosened, driven by a fear that a larger SNP majority would lead to a second independence referendum.

3. Theresa May’s U-Turn on social care has done little to improve her image with some of our undecided voters. The action has been interpreted as a cynical attempt to secure votes by making promises that will not be kept. For others, it has dented their confidence in her leadership, which they previously saw as resolute. However, those leaning towards the Conservatives don’t see the policy change as a problem, and are even glad to see that Theresa May can be adaptable if necessary.


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May 24th: Key quotes from Glasgow East

I am going off [the Conservative Party] more and more with all the chopping and changing.

Jamie, Glasgow East

I still think the Conservatives will win and the SNP will do well in Scotland but not as well as previously, I think the Conservatives will do the best in Scotland for a long time. I think the country wants to get on with Brexit and I think the Conservatives are the best ones to deliver on Brexit. I think locally it will have a significant impact if the Conservatives gain more support in Scotland, as I think the SNP would hopefully put independence on the back burner.

Rae, Glasgow East

[The U-Turn shows] that she can be adaptable. I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing to add to any parties manifesto if ideas come up after print.


Conservatives stopping free school dinners. I think this is absolutely disgusting and I’ve lost a lot of respect for Theresa May for this one. For some children this is the best meal they get.

Donna, Glasgow East

May 23rd: Social care u-turn dents May’s reputation among swing voters



Key insights

1. Interest in the election campaign has picked up in the past week for undecided voters in Wells. With the launch of the party manifestos, voters feel like they’re finally seeing some concrete proposals they can engage with. There have also been more sightings of local electioneering, although in the absence of the main party leaders, there has been very little interest in the televised leaders’ debate.

2. The issue that has made the biggest splash this week is reform of the social care system. Although the Conservatives’ proposed cap on social care costs appears to be viewed positively, the policy ‘u-turn’ has dented Theresa May’s reputation as a safe pair of hands.

3. Brexit is still seen as the parties’ top priority. Theresa May and the Conservatives’ pitch that they are best-placed to manage the negotiations appears to have landed with many swing voters, and even those who voted remain are sceptical of the idea of a second referendum.


May 23rd: Key quotes from Wells




I am a Remainer but a second referendum is not the answer. It’s a bit like the SNP who just want referendums until they get the answer they want!

Martin, Wells

[The most memorable election news was] the Conservative care package, as this will affect most homeowners. They seem to [be] hitting pensioners hard.

Vicky, Wells

Theresa May has overstepped the mark with her social care plan and the public have reacted badly so she has had to back down or she will lose votes.

Jilly, Wells


I think [the Conservative social care policy] has caused her a lot of problems, made her look indecisive – it’s looking like a u turn.

Jackie, Wells

The Tories will be re-elected but I think their majority won't be as big as it was looking like because other issues have come into view.

Nick, Wells

May 22nd: ‘Inevitable’ Conservative GE victory frames Cambridge voters’ perceptions



Key insights

1. Our undecided voters feel resigned to a Conservative general election victory and are viewing the election through this prism. Whilst many feel supportive of both the Labour Party’s and the Liberal Democrats’ manifestos, few are confident that either can deliver as they won’t be in government.

2. This has led to an increased focus on local candidates. Given that our undecided voters feel the Conservatives are highly unlikely to win in Cambridge, and that that neither Labour or the Liberal Democrats will be in government, they are focusing on their local candidates and how well they will represent Cambridge.

3. And a growing desire to ‘vote with my conscience’ rather than tactically. Our undecided voters feel that, as their vote is unlikely to change the course of the entire election they are more likely to vote for a party which best represents their views.

4. For some, the Conservatives are becoming ‘the nasty party’ again. Fox hunting, the ‘dementia tax’ and support from figures such as Katie Hopkins has turned our undecided voters away from the party.


May 22nd: Key quotes from Cambridge




The article by Kate Hopkins [supporting the Conservatives] suggested to me that while my local Conservative candidate is an honourable libertarian whose political views has inspired me a lot, much of the support for his national party come from people whom I don't necessarily want to align with.

Deryck, CambridgeThe candidate in Cambridge (Julian Huppert) is credible and I believe he will campaign for more schools in Cambridge.

Katie, Cambridge


I've been seeking out more reporting to get a read on my local candidates. I'm Interested to see how well they mesh local concerns with national policies… With no real hope for the Tories, Cambridge will have an opposition bench MP. So a Green vote is one of conscience and values - which feels authentic to me and important to signal nationally that there are growing numbers willing to try a more radical party.

Jacky, Cambridge

I like the MP Julian Huppert in our area. He is very friendly and used to be a scientist so has not always been a politician.

Melanie, Cambridge

May 19th: It’s all the same for voters in Birmingham Erdington



Key insights

1. For most of our undecided voters, there’s little to choose from between the Conservatives and Labour on policies. There’s awareness that both parties have made similar promises on the NHS and the living wage, which are both popular policies. Ultimately, neither party is inspiring confidence that they would keep their promises, or that electing them over their rivals would make a great deal of difference to people’s lives.

2. However, when it comes to a straight choice, our voters have far more faith in the Conservatives, in large part because of their leader. Even though Labour policies are popular, there’s little belief that Labour, particularly Jeremy Corbyn, would be able to deliver the unity and direction needed to succeed in government. When it comes to seeing the UK through Brexit, Theresa May is seen as the tough, no nonsense leader that is needed.

3. Voters view this election on a national level, and have not yet engaged with the local candidates. When probed on the local issues that matter to them, rubbish and fly tipping emerge are prominent concerns. There is a shared feeling that pride in Erdington is diminishing due the failure to take better care of the area.






I live in Erdington and it's not a pretty sight at all. It's a shame because the area isn't actually that bad but because people dump their rubbish everywhere it looks like a dump.


I think Theresa May would be better for Brexit negotiations but under the Conservative government the gap between the rich and the poor would become even wider. Labour would try to reduce that gap but I would rather they raise the bar for the poor rather than peg back the rich but I'm not convinced they would do that yet.



Theresa May had said that she wants the Conservative party to be the "voice of ordinary working people once again". I love that statement which has prompted some to say she's a "Red Tory".

Joanne, Birmingham Erdington

I'm disheartened about these promises due to past elections. Although, I think Theresa May would possibly follow through with her promises.

Anne Marie, Birmingham Erdington

I'm surprised that’s the Tories saying they’ll raise the national living wage, because it sounds like something Labour would say


May 19th: Hartlepool voters still feeling disengaged by the election



Key insights

1. So far, very little of the election campaign has reached undecided voters in Hartlepool. The parties’ manifesto launches have cut through to some, but the policy proposals contained in them made less of a splash than the news that Labour’s was leaked. The televised leaders’ debate did not capture anybody’s attention – and many did not even realise it was happening.

2. Labour appear to be gaining (some) traction in the wake of the manifesto launch. The plan to renationalise utilities and additional spending pledges for the NHS are both well-received (although some scepticism about how they will be funded). However, Jeremy Corbyn is not seen as a potential Prime Minister. The first thing that comes to mind about him for some is his ‘scruffy’ appearance – or the memory that he didn’t wear a poppy.

3. Theresa May is admired as a ‘strong’ leader, but voters are less sure about her policies. For some, the pledge to repeal the fox hunting ban is the first thing that comes to mind. Her pivot to the issue of workers’ rights has not reached these voters at all.

4. Ukip is seen as largely irrelevant to the current campaign. The only policy they are associated with is controlling immigration, and Hartlepool undecideds do not recognise Paul Nuttall or know what he stands for.






[My priorities are] still the same. NHS, the police, Brexit and education. Police as crime is terrible in Hartlepool. The NHS as it's imperative to the UK - it's one of the best things we have. Education as I have young children. Brexit as I voted out and still want this.

Carl, Hartlepool

All [I’ve heard] is centred around the release of Party manifestos and the mud slinging that occurs as a result. Most of the stories have been in relation to the leaked Labour manifesto.

Paul, Hartlepool

She [Theresa May] is quite clearly a leader, good or bad she depends on who you ask but she is still a leader.

Carl, Hartlepool


Where will [Labour] get the money from? We know what they say but will they stick to this and be able to do it?

Ian, Hartlepool

Who? I don't even know who he [Paul Nuttall] is, I've hardly seen him on the news and definitely don't know what he stands for or proposes to do.

Georgina, Hartlepool



May 18th: Resignation over Brexit leads to Harrow West’s undecided voters focusing their attention on other issues

Key insights

1. Many of our undecided voters are resigned to Britain getting a bad Brexit deal regardless of who wins the election, meaning that they say other issues are motivating them. Perceptions that the negotiations are “27 against 1”, belief that the Tories are pursuing a hard Brexit (which none support) and lack of faith in the Labour leadership to successfully negotiate mean that most are concentrating on other issues, such as the NHS and education.

2. In the wake of the Labour manifesto launch, many of our undecided voters say they support Labour’s policies but have little faith that they can deliver on them. The launch of the Labour manifesto has cut through for many, with broad agreement on Labour’s vision for Britain. However, Jeremy Corbyn and his shadow cabinet are viewed (at best) as ineffective, meaning few trust they could deliver on this vision. Diane Abbott’s LBC interview gaffe has led to a perception, amongst some, that Labour’s sums can’t be trusted.

3. The Conservative campaign is seen to focus heavily on Theresa May, as opposed to policy. Our undecided voters feel that, currently, they have little idea of the Conservatives’ policies, with the national and local campaign seen to focus on electing her as a ‘strong and stable’ leader for Brexit negotiations.




The Conservatives have not offered much other than "A strong and stable leadership" and "A hard Brexit" - whatever that means!

Deborah, Harrow West

[My main priority is] to cut unemployment and homelessness, I feel this will lead to a reduced crime rate and help boost our economy.

Lisa, Harrow West

The launch of the Labour Party manifesto caused quite a media storm yesterday. Much more than in previous elections.

Simon, Harrow West

Forget Brexit, that is inevitable, it's about the more important and pressing issues of Education, Housing, The NHS and Policing in this country that need to be addressed.

Graham, Harrow West

Jeremy Corbyn in my opinion has been a major let down for the Labour party. He is a nice guy and all but we would be generally expecting more from prime ministers

Zengin, Harrow West

May 18th: Key quotes from Harrow West



May 17th: Independence not the only game in town for Glasgow East’s undecided voters

Key insights

1. Independence is part of the conversation about who to vote for but also doesn’t dominate it. Less than a third of our undecided voters felt it was the most important issue of the campaign. Jobs, the NHS and security were mentioned as key issues to consider when voting.

2. However, those leaning towards a vote for the SNP tend to value their desire to ‘stand up for Scotland’ while those leaning towards the Conservatives are looking for ‘stability and unity.’ But this is about more than just independence. Our undecided voters are also thinking about this in the context of Brexit and the services they rely on.

3. For our undecided voters this isn’t a ‘Brexit election’. While Brexit is important for some, it isn’t the frame through which most are making their decision.

4. When asked directly about Labour’s proposals on Trident most support its renewal. The idea that the country must be able to protect itself was resonant.




May 17th: Key quotes from Glasgow East

I'd vote SNP because they have clear policies but most importantly because they will push for Scotland's interest in Brexit talks for all people living in Scotland.

Trish, Glasgow East

We need weapons of mass destruction to prove we won't go down without a fight.

Tracey, Glasgow East

Employment needs to improve to help the economy. My fear is for my children not to be able to follow the career they want to, but one that they need to do just to have a job.

Rena, Glasgow East

This is tough but right now I'd most likely vote Conservative. I never have voted Conservative before but I believe they offer unity and an end to division in Scotland.


May 16th: Wells undecided voters see strength as central



Key insights

1. There is a widespread feeling of confusion about the General Election, with many of our undecided voters saying that they are uncertain about the differences between the parties and about the issues that are at stake.

2. The Conservatives’ framing of the General Election as about strength and leadership is reflected in voters’ attitudes, with many undecided voters believing that it is important for there to be a clear winner with a strong mandate for Brexit negotiations.

3. The NHS is also an important issue for these undecided voters, with many saying that this will be critical in determining who they vote for.

4. Labour’s leaked manifesto, Diane Abbott’s LBC interview and the Tory cap on energy bills appear to have had the most cut-through among undecided voters in Wells so far, although that may change now that the manifestos are being launched. In general voters report seeing a lot of Theresa May in media coverage, but rarely associate this with specific policies or proposals.


May 16th: Key quotes from Wells




I think it was the right thing to do, especially in terms of Brexit. People are very unsure of what is going to happen as we leave the EU and I think its right that people get to elect who will lead us through that.

Megan, Wells


[I would vote] Lib Dem - in my area for my vote to count I need to vote either Lib Dem or Conservative and I am concerned what a huge majority conservative government would mean for our country.

Emma, Wells

The only leaflet we have had is a Liberal one regarding their fight against a hard Brexit. Apart from that we haven't seen any campaigning - it feels as if the parties, including the Conservatives haven't got geared up yet as they normally would and have done.

Nick, Wells

Brexit is the most important issue and the economy too. I have a vested interest in Europe because I have children and relatives who live and work in this part of the world. If Europe is our biggest trading partner, why would UK Ltd turn away from their biggest client before establishing other trading partners. If this was a general election as we know it, then the Lib Dems would figure highly in my mind. However, these are not normal times!

Martin, Wells

May 15th: Brexit looms large in Cambridge voters’ minds



Key insights

1. Within the context of Brexit our undecided voters feel that calling an election was irresponsible. They feel that an election is destabilising, distracting from preparations for Brexit negotiations and motivated by a desire to capitalise on Labour’s poor performance.

2. Undecided voters are hearing a lot from their candidates and, generally, appear very engaged with the election – seeing boards in front gardens, posters in windows and receiving campaign materials through their doors.

3. Labour’s stance on Brexit is seen as less clear than than that of the Liberal Democrats. Our undecided voters are, predominantly, opposed to Brexit and feel that whilst it is clear that the Liberal Democrats oppose Brexit, there is less clarity about what exactly Labour’s position is.

4. However, Labour’s leaked manifesto policies have been received positively. These policies are seen to be addressing the correct issues, especially when compared to the Lib Dems’ pledge on cannabis legalisation and the Tories’ pledge on fox-hunting, which are seen as unimportant.


May 15th: Key quotes from Cambridge




I think this was the wrong decision. There was absolutely no need for this. We are trying to negotiate Brexit which is such an important process. The PM and other ministers should be concentrating on the negotiations and not campaigning and trying to get back into parliament. My thoughts on the real reasons for calling a general election at this time - obliterate the Labour Party -distract us from the investigations into Conservatives' expenses.

Chioma, Cambridge

The whole idea that we are leaving the EU is abhorrent to me. I think we need to safeguard our relationship as much as possible.

Katie, Cambridge

The Labour leaked manifesto [was most impactful] because finally there is a major party potentially promising to fix things I feel strongly about.

Jacky, Cambridge


[I remember hearing about] Jeremy Corbyn's speech in Manchester where he refused to say we would definitely leave the EU and that Labour would want tariff free access to the single market.

Jack, Cambridge

The Tories’ fox hunting story. It is absurd and is representative of how completely out of touch they are with the times and whose interests they are interested in serving.

Erol, Cambridge

May 12th: Hartlepool undecideds currently unenthused about the election



Key insights

1. The campaign isn’t yet cutting through among our undecided voters in Hartlepool. So far there have been no reported sightings of campaign materials or advertisements at a local level. At a national level, too, very few policy proposals or media appearances appear to have been noticed – with the possible exception of Diane Abbott’s disastrous LBC interview last week.

2. Undecided voters are confused about the choice available to them –many appear uncertain about the difference that their decisions will make. At the same time, a deep distrust of politicians and their promises is evident.

3. These voters don’t appear to see this as “the Brexit election”. While some say Brexit is important, the NHS and cuts to public services currently appear more pressing issues for this group of voters.






Brexit is probably most important but everyone is guessing and proposing nobody actually knows what Brussels will agree too. So more money for the NHS, better funding for schools, more police, how to tackle immigration, not necessarily stop but stop the wrong people coming to Britain.

Carl, Hartlepool

I haven't seen any campaigning.

Francesca, Hartlepool

Totally confused and if I'm brutally honest not as interested as previous elections.

Georgina, Hartlepool


[Most memorable has been] Diane Abbott’s interview of how 10,000 police officers will be funded. People in this position should have the correct answers when interviewed - quite a worry that the shadow home Secretary can make this error. This doesn't give much confidence....

Ian, Hartlepool

Obviously big things have happened since then [2015] but I believe the political parties are all really wanting the same thing.

Stephanie, Hartlepool

May 12th: Brexit frames Birmingham Erdington undecideds’ views so far



Key insights

1. For most of our undecided voters, Brexit frames their views of the election. It is seen as key that Britain has strong leadership going into Brexit negotiations and this means that, above all, voters want a decisive result so that the winner has a clear mandate. This means that many feel this election is ‘higher stakes’ than in previous years.

2. Our undecided voters feel that the decision to call the election was made to capitalise on Labour’s poor performance. While some support the calling of the election, many feel the decision was made with building a larger Conservative majority in mind.

3. Labour’s manifesto pledges have cut-through and are popular, but aren’t swaying people yet. Extra bank holidays, tax increases for the wealthiest and returning rail to public ownership have (generally) been positively received, but doubts remain over Labour’s ability to deliver on these.






I feel with Theresa May she just wants to win constantly.


[The worst possible outcome would be] a third party taking a load of seats leading to a coalition government who can’t decide between themselves what they want from Brexit negotiations.



With bank holidays all working people would get more time off.

Ann Marie, Birmingham Erdington

I think this is the BREXIT general election to see who can get the best for Britain.

Richard, Birmingham Erdington

I would be happy if whoever got elected stuck to what they promised.


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Further informationDeborah MattinsonFounding [email protected] 20 7845 5880

Tom ClarksonAssociate [email protected] 20 7845 5880

Julia RidpathResearch [email protected] 20 7845 5880

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