state homeland security assessment and strategy program risk assessment process
TRANSCRIPT
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy ProgramRisk Assessment
Process
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.2
How Does
“Threat”
Fit into the Homeland Security Strategic Planning Process?T
hre
at
Assessm
en
t
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.3
Th
reat
Assessm
en
t
Risk AssessmentNeeds
Assessment
Shortfalls or “Gaps”
Desired Capabilities
Current CapabilitiesVulnerability
AssessmentThreat
Assessment
State Administrative Agency
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.4
PTE Defined
Groups or individuals indicating the unlawful use of force or violence
Specifically the utilization of a WMD…To intimidate or coerce…Government or civilian population…Political or social purposesT
hre
at
Assessm
en
tR E F E R E N C E :
JurisdictionHandbook
page 11
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.5
Weapons of Mass Destruction (18 USC 2332a)
Defines a weapon of mass destruction as (1) any destructive device as defined in section 921 of this title, [which reads] any explosive, incendiary, or poison gas, bomb, grenade, rocket having a propellant charge of more than four ounces, missile having an explosive or incendiary charge of more than one-quarter ounce, mine or device similar to the above; (2) poison gas; (3) any weapon involving a disease organism; or (4) any weapon that is designed to release radiation or radioactivity at a level dangerous to human life.
Th
reat
Assessm
en
t
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.6
Threat Working Group
Law enforcement personnel/intelligence components
Consider all appropriate personnel/agencies
Additional participants should be limited to subject matter experts who advise on terrorism related issues
FBI WMD CoordinatorFBI Joint Terrorism Task ForceProvide information on motives and
capabilities of PTE
Th
reat
Assessm
en
t
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.7
Joint Terrorism Task Force
Combines federal, state and local law enforcement
Develop cohesive strategy for identifying, investigating and prosecuting terrorists
Intelligence collection and analysis to prevent terrorist acts
66 JTTF’s nationwideTh
reat
Assessm
en
t
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.8
FBI WMD Coordinator
Located within FBI field offices Assist state and local jurisdictions with
identifying WMD threat elementsAssist state and local jurisdictions in their
establishment of policies and procedures established for responding to WMD terrorist attacks
Liaison to the Joint Terrorism Task Force
Th
reat
Assessm
en
t
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.9
Th
reat
Assessm
en
t
Law Enforcement On-line (LEO)
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.10
Safeguards
Information sharing limited to working group
No recording or forwarding of sensitive information
Alternatives recognized but require submission using existing formatTh
reat
Assessm
en
t
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.11
Cautions
“Snapshot” of current operational activity within jurisdiction
Assessment does not warrant opening an investigation
Lone offenders and splinter groups should be considered
Different interpretations of threat factorsTendency to “inflate” results
Th
reat
Assessm
en
t
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.12
Threat Assessment Process
Assessment completion off-line Organize threat working groupPTE existencePast violent historyEvidence of intentionsEvidence of capabilityEvidence of targetingJurisdiction threat rating (highest threat)On-line entry of threat rating
Th
reat
Assessm
en
tR E F E R E N C E :
JurisdictionHandbook
page 12
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.13
Document Threat Working Group
Jurisdiction population and coordinating agency
POC for Threat Working GroupWorking group agenciesFBI/Joint Terrorism Task Force
participationTh
reat
Assessm
en
tR E F E R E N C E :
Jurisdiction Handbook
page 14
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.14
Threat Assessment Factors
Existence:The presence of a group or individual,
operating within the jurisdiction…
Th
reat
Assessm
en
t
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.15
History:
Demonstrated past terrorist activity over time or a recorded, violent criminal history…
Th
reat
Assessm
en
t
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.16
Intentions:
Credible advocacy/threats of force or violence, acts, preparations to act; evidencing intent to create a WMD, carry out a plan to release a WMD, or to participate in a WMD incident
Th
reat
Assessm
en
t
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.17
Capability:
Credible information that a specific PTE possesses the requisite training, skills, finances, and access to resources needed to develop, produce, or acquire a particular type of WMD in a quantity and/or potency sufficient to produce mass casualties, combined with information substantiating the PTE’s ability to safely store, test, and deliver the same
Th
reat
Assessm
en
t
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.18
Targeting:
Credible information indicative of preparations for specific terrorist operations against identifiable targets located within the specified jurisdiction
Th
reat
Assessm
en
t
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.19
Threat Factor Values
Th
reat
Assessm
en
t
FACTOR
VALUE Existence
1
History
1 Intentions
2
Capability
2 Targeting
4
Maximum per PTE
10
R E F E R E N C E :
JurisdictionHandbook
page 16
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.20
Assess PTE Motivations
PoliticalReligiousRacialEnvironmentalSpecial Interest
Th
reat
Assessm
en
t
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.21
Identify WMD Capabilities of PTE
ChemicalBiological RadiologicalNuclearExplosive
Th
reat
Assessm
en
t
CBRNE
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.22
Th
reat
Assessm
en
t
Jurisdiction Threat Worksheet
Threat FactorsThrea
t Level (1-10)
Motivation
P=PoliticalR=ReligiousE=EnvironmentalRa=RacialS=Special Interest
Choose one or more
WMD Categories
C=ChemicalB=BiologicalR=RadiologicalN=NuclearE=Explosive
Choose one or morePTE
Existence (1)
Violent
History (1)
Intentions (2)
WMD Capabilit
y (2)Targeting (4)
PTE 1 1 1 2 Ra E
PTE 2
PTE 3
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.23
Jurisdiction Threat Profile process
Number of PTEExisting PTE capabilitiesWMD Threat HistoryJurisdiction Threat Rating
Th
reat
Assessm
en
tR E F E R E N C E :
Jurisdiction Handbook
page 18
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.24
Step 1 - Number of PTE
PTE assessed in your jurisdictionIf no known PTE - a rating of zero is
recorded here
Th
reat
Assessm
en
t
Total Number of PTE
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.25
Step 2 - Existing PTE capabilities
Document PTE capabilities CBRNE
Th
reat
Assessm
en
t
Chemical Nuclear
Biological Explosive
Radiological None
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.26
Step 3 - WMD Threat History
Document threat history January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2002
Th
reat
Assessm
en
t
Threatened WMD Hazard
Total Number of Responses to
Suspected WMD Threats and/or
Incidents
Number of WMD Threats and/or
Incidents Determined to be Criminal
Chemical
Biological
Radiological
Nuclear
Explosive
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.27
Step 4 - Threat Rating
Jurisdiction threat rating Highest threat level
Th
reat
Assessm
en
t
Jurisdiction Threat Rating
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.28
DISCUSSION
Th
reat
Assessm
en
t
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.29
How Does
“Vulnerability”
Fit Into the Homeland Security Strategic Planning Process?
Basic
Vu
lnera
bilit
y A
ssessm
en
t
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.30
Basic
Vu
lnera
bilit
y A
ssessm
en
t
Risk AssessmentNeeds
Assessment
Shortfalls or “Gaps”
Desired Capabilities
Current CapabilitiesThreat
AssessmentVulnerabilityAssessment
State Administrative Agency
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.31
Vulnerability Defined
The process of identifying any weaknesses that can be exploited by an adversary to gain access or information
Vulnerabilities can result from, but are not limited to: Building characteristics Equipment properties Personal behavior Operational practices
Basic
Vu
lnera
bilit
y A
ssessm
en
t
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.32
Potential Targets
FacilitiesSitesSystemsSpecial events
Basic
Vu
lnera
bilit
y A
ssessm
en
t R E F E R E N C E :
ReferenceHandbookpage B-10
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.33
Vulnerability Working Group
Multi-discipline members Include personnel who can provide
specific information unique to potential target
Basic
Vu
lnera
bilit
y A
ssessm
en
t
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.34
Basic
Vu
lnera
bilit
y A
ssessm
en
t
4 Step Process
Identify Potential Targets
• Critical Assets List• Top 10% (10 or less – all targets)
DetermineJurisdictional Vulnerability
• Highest Worksheet Rating• Jurisdiction Vulnerability Rating
Conduct IndividualTarget Vulnerability
Assessments
• Vulnerability Assessment Worksheets• 7 Assessment Factors
Organize the Assessment Team
• Multidiscipline members• Working knowledge of facilities, sites, systems, or special events
R E F E R E N C E :
JurisdictionHandbook
page 20
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.35
Seven Factors Used to Assess Vulnerability
Level of visibilityCriticality of target site to jurisdictionImpact outside of the jurisdictionPTE access to potential targetPotential target threat of hazardPotential target site population capacityPotential for collateral mass casualties
Basic
Vu
lnera
bilit
y A
ssessm
en
t
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.36
Step 1 - Assess the awareness of the existence and visibility of the target to the general public
Basic
Vu
lnera
bilit
y A
ssessm
en
t
Level of Visibility
Rating Value
Invisible: Existence secret. Classified location 0
Very Low Visibility: Existence not publicized 1
Low Visibility: Existence public but not well known 2
Medium Visibility: Existence known locally 3
High Visibility: Existence known regionally 4
Very High Visibility: Existence known nationally 5
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.37
Step 2 - Assess usefulness of assets to local population, economy, government, etc. Potential targets deemed essential to the continuity of the jurisdiction
Basic
Vu
lnera
bilit
y A
ssessm
en
t
Criticality of Target Site to Jurisdiction
Rating Value
No usefulness 0
Minor usefulness 1
Moderate usefulness 2
Significant usefulness 3
Highly useful 4
Critical 5
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.38
Step 3 - Assess the effect loss will have outside of the jurisdiction
Basic
Vu
lnera
bilit
y A
ssessm
en
t
Impact Outside the Jurisdiction
Rating Value
None 0
Very Low 1
Low 2
Medium 3
High 4
Very High 5
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.39
Step 4 - Assess the availability of the target for ingress and egress by a PTE
Basic
Vu
lnera
bilit
y A
ssessm
en
t
PTE Access to Target
Rating Value
Restricted: Security patrol 24/7, fenced, alarmed, CCTV, controlled access requiring prior clearance, designated parking, no unauthorized vehicle parking within 300 feet of facility, protected air/consumable entry
0
Controlled: Security patrol 24/7, fenced, alarmed, controlled access of vehicles and personnel, designated parking, no unauthorized vehicle parking within 300 feet of facility, protected air/consumable entry
1
Limited: Security guard at main entrance during business hours, fenced, alarmed, controlled access of visitors, designated parking, no unauthorized vehicles parking within 300 feet of facility, protected air/consumable entry
2
Moderate: Controlled access of visitors, alarmed after business hours, protected air/consumable entry, designated parking, no unauthorized vehicle parking within 50 feet
3
Open: Open access during business hours, locked during non-business hours, unprotected air/consumable entry
4
Unlimited: Open access, unprotected air/consumable entry
5
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.40
Step 5 - Assess the presence of legal WMD material (CBRNE) in quantities that could be the target of a terrorist attack or would complicate the response to an incident at that facility
Basic
Vu
lnera
bilit
y A
ssessm
en
t
Potential Target Threat of Hazard
Rating Value
None: No WMD materials present
0 Minimal: WMD materials present in moderate quantities, under positive control, and in secured locations
1
Low: WMD materials present in moderate quantities and controlled
2
Moderate: Major concentrations of WMD materials that have established control features and are secured in the site
3
High: Major concentrations of WMD materials that have moderate control features
4
Very High: Major concentrations of WMD materials that are accessible to non-staff personnel
5
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.41
Step 6 - Assess the maximum number of individuals at a site at any given time
Basic
Vu
lnera
bilit
y A
ssessm
en
t
Potential Target Site Population Capacity
Rating Value
0
0 1-250
1
251-5000
2 5001-15,000
3
15,001-50,000
4 50,001 +
5
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.42
Step 7 - Assess potential collateral mass casualties within a one-mile radius of the target site
Basic
Vu
lnera
bilit
y A
ssessm
en
t
Potential for Collateral Mass Casualties
Rating Value
0-100
0 101-250
1
251-5000
2 5001-15,000
3
15,001-50,000
4 50,001 +
5
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.43
Summary scoreRating key
Enter target ratingDocument rating for each target
Basic
Vu
lnera
bilit
y A
ssessm
en
t
Summary Score
_____Visibility_____Criticality_____Impact Outside Jurisdiction_____PTE Access to Target_____Potential Target Threat_____Potential Site Population_____Potential for Collateral Mass Casualties____ TOTAL
Basic Target Vulnerability Assessment Rating Key
0 - 2 pts. = 1 18 - 20 pts. = 73 - 5 pts. = 2 21 - 23 pts. = 8
6 - 8 pts. = 3 24 - 26 pts. = 9 9 - 11 pts. = 4 27 - 29 pts. = 10
12 - 14 pts. = 5 30 - 32 pts. = 1115 - 17 pts. = 6 33 - 35 pts. = 12
Target Name or Number: Rating
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.44
Final vulnerability rating
Highest vulnerability rating of all site/targets
Include raw score
Basic
Vu
lnera
bilit
y A
ssessm
en
t
Jurisdiction Vulnerability RatingBasic Vulnerability Summary Raw Score (Highest Target Score)
Basic Vulnerability Rating
R E F E R E N C E :
JurisdictionHandbook
page 25
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.45
Legal Hazards:
Adhere to CBRNE definitions
Basic
Vu
lnera
bilit
y A
ssessm
en
t
CBRNE MaterialNumber of sites located
in jurisdiction
Chemical (Tier II)
Biological (Infectious Only)
Radiological
Nuclear
Explosive
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.47
Site-Specific Vulnerability Assessment
Survey for ODP Specialized assessment to harden targetEstimates future assessments requiredBy jurisdiction
Basic
Vu
lnera
bilit
y A
ssessm
en
tR E F E R E N C E :
JurisdictionHandbook
page 27
State Homeland Security Assessment and Strategy Program
5.48
DISCUSSION
Basic
Vu
lnera
bilit
y A
ssessm
en
t