ss 2008 luka jakelja, stefan krase, christian kozina the impacts of climate change 1 how climate...
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SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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How Climate ChangeWill Affect People Around The World
The Impacts of Climate ChangeStern Review, Chapter 3
Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian KozinaThe Economics of Climate Change, SS 2008
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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Key message
“Climate Change threatens the basic elements of life for people all around the world – access to water, food,
health, and use of land and the environment.“
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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Table of contents
1. Introduction
2. Impacts on the water availability
3. Impacts on the food production
4. Impacts on the human health
5. Impacts on the use of land
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
7. Impacts on the environment
8. Non-linear changes and treshold effects
9. Summary and conclusion
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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1. Introduction
2. Impacts on the water availability
3. Impacts on the food production
4. Impacts on the human health
5. Impacts on the use of land
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
7. Impacts on the environment
8. Non-linear changes and treshold effects
9. Summary and conclusion
Table of contents
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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1. Introduction
„The consequences of climate change will depend on how the physical impacts interact with socio-
economic factors.“
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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1. Introduction
(IPCC FAR, 2007)
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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1. Introduction
IPCC scenarios
A1
B2B1
A2 economic growth
sustainability
global local (IPCC FAR, 2007)
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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1. Introduction
IPCC scenarios
A1
B2B1
A2 economic growth
sustainability
global local (IPCC FAR, 2007)
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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1. Introduction
IPCC scenarios
A1A1 T
A1 B
A1 Fl
non-fossil energy sources
balanced use
intensive use of fossil energy sources
(IPCC FAR, 2007)
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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1. Introduction
IPCC scenarios
Global sustainability (~ + 1.8°C)- population peak in mid-century, then decline- rapid change in economic structures
Global economic growth (~ + 2.8°C)- population peak in mid-century, then decline- rapid introduction of new technologies
National enterprises (~ + 3.4°C)- continiuously increasing population- econ. development regionally oriented
A1 B
B1
A2
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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1. Introduction
“The consequences of climate change will become disproportionately more damaging with increased
warming.“
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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1. Introduction
Relation between air temperature …
… and water holding capacity of the air.
exponential
y = ex
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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1. Introduction
Relation between air temperature …
… and extrem temperatures.
convex
(IP
CC
TA
R,
20
01
)
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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1. Introduction
Relation between air temperature …
… and storm damage.
cubic
y = x3
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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1. Introduction
There are two effects, that are not usually included in existing studies (do not consider 5-6 °C warming):
1. More extreme weather events: disproportionately increase
2. Non-linear effects and treshold-effects: become increasingly severe at higher temperatures (chapter 8)
The combined effect of impacts across several sectors could be very damaging and amplify the consequences of climate change.
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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1. Introduction
2. Impacts on the water availability
3. Impacts on the food production
4. Impacts on the human health
5. Impacts on the use of land
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
7. Impacts on the environment
8. Non-linear changes and treshold effects
9. Summary and conclusion
Table of contents
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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2. Impacts on the water availability
Meaning of water
• essential ressource for all life
• requirement for good health and sanitation
• input for almost all production
• essential for sustainable growth and poverty reduction
People will feel the impact of climate change most strongly through changes in the distribution of water around and its seasonal and annual variability.
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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2. Impacts on the water availability
Intensification of the water cyle
• droughts and floods become more severe in many areas
• more intense rainfall
• more rain in high latitudes
• less rain in the dry subtropics
• probably substantial changes in tropical areas
As a result, several billion people will be living in areas of more limited water avialability.
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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Changes in precipitation
2. Impacts on the water availability
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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2. Impacts on the water availability
Increase in annual river flows is not necessarily beneficial:
• Not enough storage to hold the extra water
• More serious flooding during the wet season
More crucial in dry reagions:
• Risk of droughts 40 % of land area (today 10 %) for + 3-4 °C
• Risk of extreme droughts 30 % (today 3 %)
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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2. Impacts on the water availability
Melting glaciers and loss of mountain snow:
• Meltwater needed during the long run dry season disappears permanently once the glacier has melted
• Risk of damaging glacial lake outburst
• Ganges: meltwater from glaciers = 70% of summer flow (!)
• India: 500 million peopleChina: 250 million peopleSouth America: tens of millions in the Andes
• All in all it threatens about 1/6 of the worlds population!
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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1. Introduction
2. Impacts on the water availability
3. Impacts on the food production
4. Impacts on the human health
5. Impacts on the use of land
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
7. Impacts on the environment
8. Non-linear changes and treshold effects
9. Summary and conclusion
Table of contents
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
3. Impacts on the food production
Some Facts about agriculture:
accounts for 24% of world output
employs 22% of the global population
uses 40% of the land area
1 billion relies on agriculture (= people who live on less than 1 Dollar a day)
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SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
3. Impacts on the food production
What are the Impacts:
Warming may improve growth
extend / shift growing seasons
increasing damage when reaching peak temperatures more often
Damage to crops because of windthrow, wildfires, soil erosion, waterlogging of soils
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SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
3. Impacts on the food production
Impacts depend on:
Temperature
Location
Carbon fertilization
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SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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3. Impacts on the food production
Temperature andlocation:
Source: http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Annual_Average_Temperature_Map_jpg
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
3. Impacts on the food production
Crop Productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid- to high latitudes (mean temp. increases of 1-3°C
At lower latitudes, especially is projected to decrease for even small temp. Increases (1-2°C)
Globally, potential for food production is projected to increase (temp. increases 1-3°C) above it will decrease
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SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
3. Impacts on the food production
Carbon fertilization:
CO2 is a basic builing block for plant growth.
Able to offset waterstress and increasing temperatures in some extent
Earlier studies claimed that a concentration of 550 ppm CO2 leads to increases in crop yields of 20-30%
Recent studies showed that a concentration of 550ppm CO2 increases crop yields by just up to 8-15% (if CO2 responsive)
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SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
3. Impacts on the food production
Impacts on regions (food):
Europe:
Especially the situation in southern Europe is projected to worsen (high temperatures and droughts). This region is already vulnerable to climate variability and water availability.
Africa:
By 2020, in some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50%
By 2080, increase of arid & semi arid land of 5% to 8%
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SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
Relation of temperature and crop yield
• is not symmetrical
• it is distinctly asymmetricfairly flat at first and thensharply declining beyondan upper threshold
Source: Schlenker and Roberts (2006)
3. Impacts on the food production
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SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
1. Introduction
2. Impacts on the water availability
3. Impacts on the food production
4. Impacts on the human health
5. Impacts on the use of land
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
7. Impacts on the environment
8. Non-linear changes and treshold effects
9. Summary and conclusion
31
Table of contents
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
4. Impacts on the human health
What are the impacts:
Increase of malnutrition
Increase of Heat stress
Increase of vector-borne diseases (malaria, dengue fever)
Cold related deaths decrease
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SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
Peak temperatures may already be at the limit at some locations
Northern latitude countries will suffer less deaths in winter
1-3mio more die from malnutrition (+3° + low carbon fertilization)
40-60mio more people exposed to malaria in Africa (+2°)
WHO expects that 150 000 die p.a. because of climate change --> will double at just +1°C
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4. Impacts on the human health
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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4. Impacts on the human health
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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4. Impacts on the human health
Estimates of extra deaths (per mio people) from climate change
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
1. Introduction
2. Impacts on the water availability
3. Impacts on the food production
4. Impacts on the human health
5. Impacts on the use of land
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
7. Impacts on the environment
8. Non-linear changes and treshold effects
9. Summary and conclusion
36
Table of contents
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
5. Impacts on the use of land
Some Facts:
• More than 200 mio live in coastal floodplains with 2 mio km2 and 1 trillion worth of assets (less than 1m elevation above current sea level)
• 22 of 50 major cities are at risk of flooding
• Even if protected, residual risk of flooding like New Orleans
The homes of tens of millions more people are likely to be affected by flooding from coastal storm surges with rising sea levels
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SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
• Although protection level rises in line with GDP per capita additional people willbe flooded every year (figure)
• Warming of 3-4°C will lead to 20-80cm rise of sea level
• Upgrading coastal defences could partially offset these impacts
• Costs of upgrading rise exponentially with required height
• Today nearly as many political refugees compared to environmental ones
• Some estimates project that 150-200 mio people may become permanently displaced by the middle of the century due to rising sea levels, more frequent floods and more intense droughts.
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5. Impacts on the use of land
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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5. Impacts on the use of land
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
1. Introduction
2. Impacts on the water availability
3. Impacts on the food production
4. Impacts on the human health
5. Impacts on the use of land
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
7. Impacts on the environment
8. Non-linear changes and treshold effects
9. Summary and conclusion
40
Table of contents
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
Cimate change will increase the intensity of storms, with impacts on:
Soil conditions• Droughts• Permafrost melting
Wind• Windspeed as an exponential function of temperature• Damage costs as a cubic function of windspeed
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SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
Source: Stern 2007
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
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SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
Some facts:
• Storms and associated flooding are the most costly natural disaster
• Causing 90% of the total losses from natural catastrophes
• With a large proportion in the developed world
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
43
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
1. Introduction
2. Impacts on the water availability
3. Impacts on the food production
4. Impacts on the human health
5. Impacts on the use of land
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
7. Impacts on the environment
8. Non-linear changes and treshold effects
9. Summary and conclusion
44
Table of contents
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
7. Impacts on the Environment
In the past:
• Species mooving polewards 6km/decade
• Decline of species (polar bear, caribou, white sprouce)
• 1% of world‘s amphibian species from tropical mountains
• Since 1500, 245 species extincted
• Today 800 species are threatened with extinction
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SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
EXCURSUS: What is a caribou?
Well…
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SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
7. Impacts on the Environment
Climate change occurs too rapidly for many species to adapt …
2°C warming:
• 15-40% of species facing extinction
• High risk of extinction of arctic species
• Irreversible bleaching of coral reefs
• Loss of vast ares of tundra and forest
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SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
7. Impacts on the Environment
3°C warming:• 20-50% of species facing extinction
• 25-60% mammals• 30-40% birds• 15-70% butterflies in South Africa
• Onset of Amazon forest collapse• Losing large areas of wetlands caused by rising see levels
4 or 5°C warming:
Full range of consequences not clear yet
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SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
1. Introduction
2. Impacts on the water availability
3. Impacts on the food production
4. Impacts on the human health
5. Impacts on the use of land
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
7. Impacts on the environment
8. Non-linear changes and treshold effects
9. Summary and conclusion
49
Table of contents
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
8. Non-linear changes and threshold effects
• Increasing chances of abrupt and large-scale changes
• Shifts in regional weather patterns (with consequences for water availability in tropical regions)
• Melting/collapse of polar ice sheets will have impacts on:• Population• Land area• GDP
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SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
8. Non-linear changes and threshold effects
Impacts of melting/collapse of polar ice sheets:
Sour
ce:
Ster
n 20
07
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SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
8. Non-linear changes and threshold effects
Source: Stern 2007
Potential temperature triggers for large-scale and abrupt changes in climate system:
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SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
8. Non-linear changes and threshold effects
53
Tipping pointsin the earthsystem
Source: Edenhofer 2007
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
1. Introduction
2. Impacts on the water availability
3. Impacts on the food production
4. Impacts on the human health
5. Impacts on the use of land
6. Impacts on the infrastructure
7. Impacts on the environment
8. Non-linear changes and treshold effects
9. Summary and conclusion
54
Table of contents
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
9. Summary and Conclusions
„Climate change will have increasingly sever impact on people around the world, with a growing risk of abrupt
and large-scale changes at higher temperatures.“
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SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
57
Questions
How will climate change affect people around the world (overview)?
What are the further consequences, when living conditions are getting worse?1
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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Questions
What are the basics for projections of future changes in climate (szenarios)?
What must be considered? 2
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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Questions
Why will the consequences of climate change become disproportionately more damaging with increasing warming?3
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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Questions
Climate change will alter patterns of water availability by intensifying the water circle.
What does it lead to? Are there real benefits for any countries?4
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
61
Questions
What is the main problem about melting glaciers and loss of mountain snow?
What is the main reason for sea level rise? What does it lead to?5
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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Questions
Will climate change increase worldwide deaths?
Are there any benefits for health? 6
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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Questions
What is maybe the most crucial fact regarding shifts in regional weather regimes such as changes in monsoon or the El Niño? 7
SS 2008 Luka Jakelja, Stefan Krase, Christian Kozina
The Impacts of Climate Change
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Questions
It is argued that with temperatures rising more and more species are threatened. What is the actual problem about this? One might argue that it is not a big thing that scuba diving at the Great Barrier Reef will not be that much fun anymore without the corals … 8