spaceworks launch report: 2014 year in revie · on october 28, an orbital sciences antares rocket...
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SpaceWorks Launch Report: 2014 Year in Review
10 August 2015 | Atlanta, GA Jess Fuller
Junior Engineer, Engineering Economics Group [email protected] | +1.770.379.8000
Elizabeth Buchen
Director, Engineering Economics Group [email protected] | +1.770.379.8006
John R. Olds, Ph.D., P.E.
Chief Executive Officer, SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. [email protected] | +1.770.379.8002
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Launch Vehicle Market Assessment Overview
§ SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. is an aerospace engineering concept design and systems analysis firm focusing on next-generation space transportation systems, future technologies, human and robotic exploration of space, and emerging space markets and applications
§ Last year, SEI released its first launch report; the contents of which are located here: http://spaceworksforecast.com
§ This report serves as the annual update and presents a high-level review of the launch services market in 2014:
§ A review of notable launch-related activities
§ Discussion of launches by site, launch vehicle performance
§ Launch trends by country and vehicle
§ Trends in masses of launched satellites
§ Satellite and launch counts in this presentation include both successful and failed launch attempts
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Notable Launch Activities in 2014 (1 of 2)
§ On October 28, an Orbital Sciences Antares rocket carrying supplies to the International Space Station malfunctioned and exploded shortly after liftoff, losing the 30 satellites onboard, including 26 Planet Labs “Doves”
§ SpaceX attempted the first landing of its reusable Falcon 9
rocket onto a barge on January 10, however, the first stage landed too hard, causing damage to the rocket. A second attempt was made in April, during which the rocket landed onto the barge, but again failed to make the soft landing needed
§ The Russian Proton-M rocket carrying a communications satellite lost communications shortly after liftoff on May 15, marking its sixth failure in the last four years. The Proton was subsequently grounded for 4 months while officials investigated the cause the failure
Antares rocket explosion. Credit: SpaceNews
Ocean barge. Credit:: SpaceX
Proton rocket. Credit: Space.com
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Notable Launch Activities in 2014 (2 of 2)
§ The Russian Angara launcher and the Indian GSLV Mk.3 rockets had their first suborbital test flights in 2014, both of which were successful
§ The Chinese Long March family of rockets launched 15
times in 2014. China continued to develop the future Long March variants, Long March 5, 6, and 7. Long March 6 should liftoff sometime in 2015, while Long March 5 will be ready to fly in 2016. China also successfully launched their Kuaizhou launcher in December, just 24 hours after launching a Long March 2
§ In 2014, several new companies announced their intent to
develop small satellite launchers including Rocket Lab, Firefly Space Systems, CubeCab, and bloostar
Angara rocket maiden launch. Credit: Russian Ministry of Defence
Long March-3C/G2. Credit: Gunter’s Space Page
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Recent Historical Trends for Satellites and Launches
High level trends in the number of attempted launches and the number of satellites provide context for the 2014 launch report
§ While the total number of attempted launches has remained relatively constant throughout the last five years, the number of satellites launched each year has more than doubled since 2010
§ The average satellite mass continues to decrease each year; in 2014, the average mass was ~30% less than 2013
§ The significant increase in the number of satellites launched is due to the rise in popularity of nano/microsatellites (satellites less than 50 kg) for civil and commercial use
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Historic Launch and Satellite Counts
Nano/Microsatellites Launched
Satellites Launched
Launches with Nano/Microsatellites
Total Number of Launches
*Number of launches and satellites includes failures
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Launch Success and Failure
Failure Success
Overview of 2014 Launch Performance
Launch vehicles in 2014 enjoyed a 98% success rate; the majority of these launches were destined to LEO, including SSO, Polar, and ISS destinations
Proton, Antares
(1 failure each)
Total: 92 launches 0
10
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100 Orbital Destinations
Total: 92 launches
GEO
MEO
SSO/Polar
LEO-Other
LEO-ISS
Escape
LEO
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Top Launch Providers in 2014
Launches by Launch Vehicle Operator’s Country
Country Launches
Russia 33*
USA 23
China (PR) 16
Europe 11**
Japan 4
India 4
Israel 1
Russian launch vehicles saw huge success in 2014; Russian Soyuz variants
successfully completed 18 launches
Launch Vehicle (Operator) Launches Variants Used
Long March (China) 15 LM 2, LM 3, LM 4 Soyuz (Russia) 10 Soyuz 2.1a, Soyuz 2.1b Atlas (USA) 9 Atlas V 401, Atlas V 541 Proton* (Russia) 8 Proton-M Briz-M (Ph.2, 3*, 4) Soyuz (Russia) 8 Soyuz-U, Soyuz FG Delta (USA) 5 Delta II, Delta IV M, Delta IV H
Falcon (USA) 6 Falcon 9 v1.1 Ariane (Europe) 6 Ariane 5ECA, Ariane 5ES Soyuz (Europe**) 4 Soyuz-STA, Soyuz-STB H-2 (Japan) 4 H-2A-202 Antares* (USA) 3 Antares 120, Antares 130* PSLV (India) 3 PSLV-XL, PSLV-CA Dnepr (Russia / Ukraine) 2 Dnepr-1 Rokot (Russia) 2 Rokot-KM Angara (Russia) 1 Angara-A5 Briz-M GSLV (India) 1 GSLV Mk. 2 Kuaizhou (China) 1 Kuaizhou Shavit (Israel) 1 Shavit-2 Strela (Russia) 1 Strela Vega (Europe) 1 Vega Zenit (Russia) 1 Zenit-3SL
* Sustained Failed Launch Attempt ** Operated by Arianespace 92 launches Note: includes only orbital launches
*Includes Sea Launch, Dnepr-1 launches ** Includes 1 Soyuz-STA and 3 Soyuz-STB launches
Note: includes only orbital launches
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Launches by Launch Site
Baikonur Cosmodrome, Kazakhstan: 21 Launches
Cape Canaveral AFS, USA: 16 Launches
Guiana Space Center, France: 11 Launches
Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, China (PR): 6 Launches
Palmachim Launch Complex, Israel: 1 Launch
Plesetsk Cosmodrome, Russia: 9 Launches
Satish Dhawan Space Center, India: 4 Launches Odyssey,
Sea Launch: 1 Launch
Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center, China (PR): 8 Launches
Tanegashima Space Center, Japan: 4 Launches
Vandenberg AFB, USA: 4 Launches
Wallops Island Flight Facility, USA: 3 Launches
Xichang Satellite Launch Center, China (PR): 2 Launches
Yasny Cosmodrome, Russia: 2 Launches
Credit: Google Maps
1-5 Launches 6-10 Launches 11-15 Launches 16+ Launches
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45%
9% 10%
36%
Nano/Microsatellites (1-50 kg) Small Satellites (50-250 kg) Medium Satellites (251-1000 kg) Large Satellites (>1000 kg)
Payload Mass
Total Payloads Launched in 2014**: 296
2013/2014 Number of Payloads Launched by Mass Class
52%
11%
10%
27%
Payload Mass
Nano/Microsatellites (< 50 kg) Small Satellites (50-250 kg) Medium Satellites (251-1000 kg) Large Satellites (>1000 kg)
Total Payloads Launched in 2013**: 215
2013 2014
The percentage of large satellites launched decreased between 2013 and 2014; nano/microsatellites, however, experienced a rise in popularity
(< 50 kg) (>1,000 kg) (>1,000 kg) (251-1,000 kg) (251-1,000 kg)
** Includes failed launch attempts
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2013/2014 Launch Manifesting Comparison
Though nano/microsatellites lead the 2014 market in quantity, 70% of launches carried only larger primary payloads; the number of launches with 1-10 secondary payloads increased in 2014
Total Launches in 2014**: 92
2013 2014
Total Launches in 2013**: 82
70%
22%
4% 4%
Launch Manifesting
Primary Satellites Only Primary Satellites with 1-5 Secondary Satellites Primary Satellites with 6-10 Secondary Satellites Primary Satellites with 11+ Secondary Satellites
* *
* Includes Ariane 5ECA/ES launches with two primary payloads ** Includes failed launch attempts
74%
18%
4% 4%
Launch Manifesting
Primary Satellites Only Primary Satellites with 1-5 Secondary Satellites Primary Satellites with 6-10 Secondary Satellites Primary Satellites with 11+ Secondary Satellites
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
100%
2013 2014
Perc
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s Lau
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Military Government Civil Commercial
19%
50%
2013/2014 Launch and Satellite Trends by Sector
2014 Commercial Satellites Launched by Launch Vehicle Family*
Antares 58%
Ariane 6%
Dnepr 14%
Falcon 8%
Soyuz 7%
Other 7%
§ The percentage of commercial satellites increased significantly in 2014, while the percentage of military, civil, and government satellites decreased
§ Nearly two thirds of satellites launched in 2014 had masses less than 50 kg; over half of these were contributed by Planet Labs
§ 58% of all commercial satellites in 2014 were launched by Antares* (both -120 and -130 variants), however, most of these were CubeSats operated by Planet Labs
Credit: Planet Labs
* Includes failed launch attempts
* Includes failed launch attempts
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Average Satellite Mass Trends by Orbit
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GEO
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All Satellites
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LEO
* Includes failed launch attempts * Includes failed launch attempts
* Includes failed launch attempts
§ The average mass of satellites destined for LEO has decreased over the last 15 years; by contrast, GEO satellite masses are increasing
§ For LEO satellites, 2014 continued to see a sharp
decline in mass due to popularity of nano/microsatellites § For GEO satellites, the decrease in 2014 (compared to
2013) was rather anomalous given historical trends but can be traced to the deployment of smaller military and government payloads provided by the US, Russia, and India
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2014 Launch Report Summary
§ 2014 saw the highest number of successful launches in any year in the last two decades
§ Russia, the United States, and China contributed 72 of the 92 launches (33, 23 and 16 launches, respectively)
§ The most popular launch site was the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, where 21 of the 33 Russian launches took place
§ There was a large rise in commercial satellites launched in 2014, particularly by U.S. companies
§ Over half of all commercial satellites launched in 2014 were launched by Antares rockets
§ Over half of all commercial satellites launched in 2014 were less than 50 kg
§ The number of small satellites are increasing, and as a result, small launch vehicle companies continue to emerge to meet the growing demand for small satellite launches
§ Trends show that the average mass of satellites destined for LEO has decreased recently, mostly due to the popularity of nano/microsatellites; by contrast, GEO satellite masses are increasing
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