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  • NASA/TP-2011-216155

    Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties – 2010

    Francis A. Cucinotta NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center Houston, Texas Myung-Hee Y. Kim and Lori J. Chappell U.S.R.A., Division of Space Life Sciences Houston, Texas

    July 2011

    https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20130001648 2020-02-18T00:22:28+00:00Z

  • THE NASA STI PROGRAM OFFICE . . . IN PROFILE

    Since its founding, NASA has been dedicated to the advancement of aeronautics and space science. The NASA Scientific and Technical Information (STI) Program Office plays a key part in helping NASA maintain this important role. The NASA STI Program Office is operated by Langley Research Center, the lead center for NASA’s scientific and technical information. The NASA STI Program Office provides access to the NASA STI Database, the largest collection of aeronautical and space science STI in the world. The Program Office is also NASA’s institutional mechanism for dissemi- nating the results of its research and development activities. These results are published by NASA in the NASA STI Report Series, which includes the following report types: • TECHNICAL PUBLICATION. Reports of

    completed research or a major significant phase of research that present the results of NASA pro- grams and include extensive data or theoretical analysis. Includes compilations of significant scientific and technical data and information deemed to be of continuing reference value. NASA’s counterpart of peer-reviewed formal professional papers but has less stringent limita- tions on manuscript length and extent of graphic presentations.

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    language translations of foreign scientific and technical material pertinent to NASA’s mission.

    Specialized services that complement the STI Program Office’s diverse offerings include creating custom thesauri, building customized databases, or- ganizing and publishing research results . . . even providing videos. For more information about the NASA STI Program Office, see the following: • Access the NASA STI Program Home Page at

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    621-0390 • Write to: NASA Access Help Desk NASA Center for AeroSpace Information 7121 Standard Hanover, MD 21076-1320

  • NASA/TP-2011-216155

    Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections and Uncertainties – 2010

    Francis A. Cucinotta NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center Houston, Texas Myung-Hee Y. Kim and Lori J. Chappell U.S.R.A., Division of Space Life Sciences Houston, Texas

    July 2011

  • Available from:

    NASA Center for AeroSpace Information National Technical Information Service 7121 Standard Drive 5285 Port Royal Road Hanover, MD 21076-1320 Springfield, VA 22161

    This report is also available in electronic form at http://ston.jsc.nasa.gov/collections/TRS

  • iii

    Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................... viii 1. Introduction. ..................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Basic Concepts ................................................................................................................. 5 2. Space Radiation Environments and Transportation Models ............................................ 8 2.1 Galactic Cosmic Ray Models ........................................................................................... 9 2.1.1 Model of galactic cosmic rays charge and energy spectra ............................................... 9 2.1.2 Isotopic composition of galactic cosmic rays .................................................................. 10 2.1.3 Solar modulation of the galactic cosmic rays .................................................................. 12 2.2 Solar Particle Events ........................................................................................................ 14 2.2.1 Hazard function for solar particle event occurrence ........................................................ 16 2.2.2 Representation of solar particle event energy distribution ............................................... 18 2.3 Physics Model Description of Organ Exposures ............................................................. 20 2.3.1 Comparisons of ground-based measurements to transport codes .................................... 22 2.3.2 Intercomparisons of transport codes ................................................................................ 24 2.3.3 Space flight measurement comparisons to transport codes .............................................. 26 2.3.4 Predictions for exploration missions ................................................................................ 30 2.4 Probability Distribution Function for Space Physics Uncertainties ................................. 33 3. Cancer Risk Projections for Low-linear Energy Transfer Radiation ............................... 35 3.1 Cancer Mortality and Incident Rates ............................................................................... 36 3.2 Adjustment for Low Dose-rates ....................................................................................... 38 3.3 Comparisons of Tissue-specific Risk Models .................................................................. 39 3.4 Age at Exposure Dependence of Cancer .......................................................................... 39 3.5 Radiation Risks for Never-smokers ................................................................................. 43 4. Uncertainties in Low-linear-energy-transfer Risk Model Factors ................................... 49 4.1 Life-span Study Dosimetry Errors ................................................................................... 50 4.2 Statistical Errors ............................................................................................................... 50 4.3 Errors from Reporting Bias .............................................................................................. 51 4.4 Dose and Dose-Rate Effectiveness Factor Uncertainties ................................................. 51 4.5 Transfer Models Uncertainties ......................................................................................... 53 4.6 Baseline Cancer Rates and Life-table Data ...................................................................... 54 4.7 Summary of Past Uncertainty Analysis for Low-linear Energy Transfer Radiation ....... 55 5. Cancer Risks and Radiation Quality ................................................................................ 56 5.1 Review of Radiobiology Data for Relative Biological Effectivenesses .......................... 57 5.1.1 Relative biological effectivenesses from human epidemiology studies ........................... 57 5.1.2 Animal carcinogenesis studies with heavy ions ............................................................... 58 5.1.3 Cellular studies on chromosomal aberrations and mutation ............................................ 60 5.1.4 Delayed effects from in-vivo and in-vitro studies ............................................................ 62 5.1.5 Dose-rate and protraction effects for high-energy and charge nuclei .............................. 62 5.2 Biophysical Considerations .............................................................................................. 63 5.3 Biophysical Models of Relative Biological Effectiveness ............................................... 69 5.3.1 Relative biological effectiveness in the non-targeted effects model ................................ 72 5.3.2 Saturation mechanisms in biological responses ............................................................... 76 5.4 Risk Cross Sections and Coefficients .............................................................................. 76

  • iv

    6. Revised NASA Model for Cancer Risks and Uncertainties ............................................. 80 6.1 Track-structure-based Risk Model ................................................................................... 82 6.2 Updates to Radiation Transport Codes ............................................................................ 84 6.3 Effective Dose and Tissue Weights ................................................................................. 86 6.4 Revised Uncertainty Assessment .....................................................................................

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