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Space Commerce Presentation 2015

Space Commerce Presentation 2015

S PA C E V E N T U R E S I N V E S T O R S . C O M

spaceventuresinvestors.com © Brad Lewis and Simon Drake 2015

Table of Contents

Space Commerce Overview 4 Space Commerce Players 12 Investing in Space Strategies 23 Looking Forward 28

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Space Commerce Presentation Overview

This presentation is an overview of Space Commerce and Investment Opportunities

© 2015 Simon Drake and Brad Lewis

If you wish to use any of the material in this presentation, please contact us.

Simon Drake is Director of Space Ventures Investors

Brad Lewis is a Space Commerce Analyst (Intern)

Disclaimer: This document is for promotional purposes only and does not explicitly promote or discredit any public or private entity.

3


Space Commerce Overview

4


Space Commerce: Turn demand into industries...

5


Changing Perceptions...

6

Neil DeGrasse Tyson - Host of The Cosmos prominent scientist The potential competition and rivalry of superpowers on getting to Mars: “You would transform a sleepy country into an innovation nation and you'd do it practically overnight. And that transformation has huge economic implications…" http://www.smh.com.au/technology/sci-tech/neil-degrasse-tysons-answer-to-innovation-stagnation-a-space-race-to-mars-20150526-gh9gys

Louis Brennan - CNN “Future space endeavors will be driven by a mix of state actors, corporations and individuals..” http://edition.cnn.com/2015/05/29/opinions/opinion-china-space-business/

Eric Anderson - Founder Planetary Resources "All the things we have on Earth, materially, that we negotiate over, tax, fight wars over — those things are available in infinite quantities in space…” http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/237409

Richard Branson - Head of the Virgin Group “I got a very firm answer to that question immediately when I landed in Mojave. From the designers, the builders, the engineers, the pilots and the whole community who passionately believed — and still believe — that truly opening space and making it accessible and safe is of vital importance to all…” http://www.space.com/18993-virgin-galactic.html


Google Trends: Big Data Space Insights

7

invest in space

invest in tech

invest in biotech

antarctica tourism

space tourism

May 2013 to May 2015, Worldwide, Web Search

April 2013 to April 2015, Worldwide, Web Search

Source: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=space%20tourism%2C%20antarctica%20tourism&date=5%2F2013%2025m&cmpt=q&tz= https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=invest%20in%20biotech%2C%20invest%20in%20space%2C%20invest%20in%20tech&date=4%2F2013%2025m&cmpt=q&tz=


The Space Commerce Growth Story

Space continues to gain momentum

Even volatile economic and geopolitical events are positive for Space Commerce

Competition among Aerospace, Private Space Players and Superpowers to meet existing demand is a driver of innovation

Space Investors do not need to be persuaded: All they need is a space related financial product to invest in.

8


OECD, BRIC and EU15 Space Budgets

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

OECD BRIC EU15

US$

Bill

ion

(PPP

)

2008 2013

9

Space Budgeting is global

Source: The Space Economy at a Glance 2014 - Published on October 23, 2014 http://www.oecd.org/sti/futures/space-economy-at-a-glance-2014-highlights.pdf


Our Methodology Seek the signal from the noise...

New advances in space technology distract attention from what is actually currently profitable

Future space commerce industries (Space Tourism) are often clouded by sensational projects (e.g. SpaceX, Mars One) yet all have merit

Space Commerce is built ‘step-by-step’ There is opportunity in multiple verticals...

10

Private Space Companies

Public Satellite Companies

Public Aerospace Companies with Space exposure

Government Agency Spending


The State of Space Commerce

Most major contractors for global space programs are public companies

More ‘exotic’ space commerce industries (Space Tourism, Asteroid Mining) are privately funded, and:

In time they will have to tap into a wider investor base for funding, and, Compete / Consolidate and always Evolve

11


Space Commerce Players

12


The Growing Bases of Space Commerce

Government / Agency Funded

Commercial Satelites

New Transport

Companies

Space Tourism

Space Infrastructure

Private Exploration &

Mining

Future Existing

Exa

mpl

e E

xpen

ditu

re

13


A Quick Comparison of Space Industries

Industry Years in operation

Government Funded?

Commercial Applications

Satellites 50+ Yes Communication, Navigational, Military etc

Yes Military, Media, GPS etc.

Rockets & Delivery Systems

50+

Yes Space programs

Yes Numerous and growing

Space Debris In planning Possible Legislation may require debris removal

Yes Grows in line with space activity

Space Tourism Estimated 2015 No Strictly Commercial

Yes Wealthy Customers

Asteroid Mining Estimated 2020-2025

No Unknown, but agency state sponsored missions can not be ruled out, e.g. Rosetta

Yes Precious Metals, Water, Energy

14


Government Expenditure

15

$2.03 billion - 2013 Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency www.jaxa.jp

US 17,647bn - 2014 National Aeronautics and Space Administration http://www.nasa.gov

US 4bn - 2014 European Space Agency http://www.esa.int/

17.6

5.6 4.0 2.0 USA Russia Europe Japan

Budgets in US$ Billions

$5.6 billion - 2013 Russian Federal Space Agency roscosmos.ru

Private Space

Companies

Public Satellite

Companies

Aerospace with Space Exposure

Government Agency

Sources:

http://www.jaxa.jp/index_e.html�

http://roscosmos.ru/�


Upcoming Plans for NASA and ESA

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New Horizons Pluto Orbit 2015

Deployment of SLS 2018

Deployment of Orion 2018

James Webb Space Telescope 2018

Asteroid capture lunar orbit 2018

ISS funding ends 2024

Mars Orbit 2025

Mars landing and return 2033

Exo Mars Rover 2016

James Webb Space Telescope 2018

Asteroid defense test 2020

Euclid 2020

Juice 2022

Plato 2024

Athena 2028

Private Space

Companies

Public Satellite

Companies


Government Agency


Large Public Space Related Companies

17

Company Market Cap US$Bn Q1 2015 Space Activities

106

Components, defence

104 Rocketry, Defence, Assembly, Satellites, Exploration, Components

64 Rocketry, Defence, Surveillance, Weaponry

48 Satellites, Surveillance, Exploration, Weaponry, Assembly, Components

32 Weaponry, Satellites, Surveillance

10

Components, Defence, Exploration

6 Satellites, defence

Private Space

Companies

Public Satellite

Companies


Government Agency


Public Space / Aerospace Companies Performance

18

All companies are subject to multiple Analysts & Broker Reports per earnings quarters

Healthy economies = growing aerospace = steady space investments

Source: Google Finance

Private Space

Companies

Public Satellite

Companies


Government Agency

Last 12 Months


Tracking Public Satellite Companies…

Source: Yahoo Finance

Performance directly correlates with key metrics, including: Scheduled builds/ launches Successes/ Major Failures

10 Year 5 Year

12 Month

Private Space

Companies

Public Satellite

Companies


Government Agency

19


Tracking Our Ideal Space Portfolio Against Major Indexes

20

Indexes in BOLD: Dow, NASDAQ, SMP 500


Public Companies of Interest

All Companies returning steadily to 52 week highs Companies represent stable long term investments due to high amount of

assets in space As cubesats become more dominant SVI predicts high level acquisitions and

partnerships Satellite bandwidth usage is increasing on a yearly basis to scale up to

consumer driven demand for increasing bandwidth requirements, e.g. Cruise Ship customers now expect seamless video on demand

Company Name Symbol Last price1 52 Week HighMarket CapIntelsat SA I 11.06 20.08 $1.2BnInmarsat Plc ISAT 998.15 1041.24 €4.5BnLoral Space & Communications LORL 67.03 81.53 $1.44BnEutelsat Communications SA ETL 30.89 32.71 €7.0BnViaSat, Inc. VSAT 61.71 68.84 $3.0BnOrbital ATK Inc OA 75.13 80.99 $4.5BnLockheed Martin Corporation LMT 192.36 207.06 $60.6BnBoeing Co BA 146.88 158.83 $101.6Bn

Private Space

Companies

Public Satellite

Companies


Government Agency

21

(1) Figures compiled 29th May, 2015


Comparison of Large Public Satellites Companies

22

Company Market Cap US$Bn Q1’ 2015

Satellites in Operation Key Markets Growth Prospects

7.0 34

Broadband Media Data Telecoms

Strong: One of the only primarily media and communications platforms

4.5 11

Communications Maritime Broadband

Strong: Primary provider on maritime contracts, first mover on aviation compliance

3.0 29 Military Broadband

Strong: Large military, government, and private sector contracts

1.5 15 Communications Strong:

A first mover in X-band communications

1.2 53

Broadband Media Mobility Government

Strong: Largest satellite fleet in orbit by far, reaching the most people

Private Space

Companies

Public Satellite

Companies


Government Agency


Investing in Space Strategies

23


Funding Space Commerce There is a clear division between Public and

Private space related companies

Private Investors (mainly Venture Capital and Sovereign Wealth Funds) are funding Private Space Companies; ‘exotic space companies’

Risk Reward

Retail and Institutional Investors back Public Aerospace Companies

Dividends

Trade on Stock Price Volatility

Multiples of 100 are the prime goals of VCs

First mover advantage

24


Space Verticals: Public and Private will Merge...

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Asteroid Mining

Propulsion

Sensors

Space Tourism

Rockets

Satellites

Space Craft

Public Privately Funded

Space Infrastructure

SPAC

E VE

RTI

CAL

Private Space

Companies

Public Satellite

Companies


Government Agency


The ‘2016 Rocket Showdown’

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Lack of Heavy lift rocket capabilities has led to the space industry coming to the cross roads; Government (and the Public Aerospace companies that benefit as contractors ) vs. Private Space Companies

First new heavy lift rockets in over twenty years are enter testing phases Will government or privately designed rockets be more efficient? 2016 will be the first year to truly showcase how the privatized space

industry can spend less and do more

Cost: $32bn Bloc 1 Lift: 70 Metric Tons Max Lift:130 Metric Tons Cost Per launch: $500m

Space Launch System

Cost: Estimated $3bn Lift: 53+ Metric Tons Cost Per Launch: $90m

Falcon 9 Heavy

Private Space

Companies

Public Satellite

Companies


Government Agency


Investing in Complimentary Technology

Solar

Energy & Energy Storage

Robotics

3D Printing

Complimentary Technology Use in Space

Make it in Space Lower costs - move production

facilities and pre-fabricated parts (assembled by robots) into space

Energy from Space Lower costs – Abundant solar

energy, stored and on-demand in next generation batteries

New technology will be leveraged in space environments

27


Looking Forward

28

Note: The range of Themes reflect Space Commerce industries from the imminent ‘small’ to the long-term ‘massive’


Upcoming Space Commerce Themes

Private Space Companies will provide cheaper access to space, via re-usable rockets and sub-orbital flights

Following the current progress of technology enables a clearer view of what is actually possible and what is not; Search the Signal from the Noise

Space Commerce will see jumps and set-backs in-line with global macro events; Global conflict & recessions, and political and social movements

Mainstream acceptance that Space is a viable reality and not Science Fiction / Just Another Government Funded Project

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Negative for Space Commerce

Global Recession: Economic slow-downs will increase the political

motivation to ‘feed the masses’ rather than ‘explore the stars’.

Benign ‘Space Critics’: Social Movements that become Political and Ultra

Eco-Friendly Activism can easily become anti-space, e.g. the Cold War

Space Race was long seen as a by-product of an arms race.

Catastrophic Space Related Accidents: The loss of lives creates negative

feedback; mainstream media raise awareness of the highly visual failures

rather than investigate true achievements and milestones.

Monopolies Defending Market Share: Space based technologies will

impact on earth-based industries, therefore current monopolies will defend

their market share by keeping space technologies ‘out of reach’; including

negative PR campaigns and disinformation.

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Fast Forward

Global Internet Coverage: Competition and consolidation begins. Space Debris: Commercial Players & Start-ups seek investment. Space Tourism: Virgin Galactic Space fleet have clearance to begin

taking tourists to space: Sub-Orbital only. Transport: Space-X and ULA will officially be carrying human cargo to

the ISS under current contract schedules. Launch Costs: Reusable rockets that Space-X has been testing will be

successful under current schedules, driving down the cost of launches Habitation: Bigelow Aerospace B330 manned space habitat

operational. Competitors seek R&D funding. Asteroid mining prospectors, and other new test vehicles, may be

investible; precious metals industry becomes more pro-active. NASA’s Orion space craft will also finish final testing readying one of

the first manned missions to Mars by a country. Other official Mars mission plans will be unveiled by private ventures,

with timelines for launch within the next ten years. Back to the Moon is back in vogue, possible ESA plans for a base.

Medium High

Medium

Medium

High

Medium

Low

Low

Medium

Space Commerce Vertical Commercial Risk

Years 5+ 20+ 10+

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Medium


Fast Forward

Global Internet online after the launch of hundreds of satellites by Space-X, with investments from big players like Google.

Space Debris: Possibly enforced by law, activity becomes constant. Space Tourism, sub-orbital a real business, and orbital (via space

planes) to manned stations in plans to become affordable. Asteroid mining: Scouting missions and testing completed, the first

minerals will be returned for earth for commercial use. Alternative Propulsion: Testing of plasma rockets and fusion energy

should also be completed, leading to the designing of space craft that can go greater distances then previously imagined. Plasma rockets cut the time to get to Mars in half, important as colonies begin to set commercialise Mars.

Mars: The first private space missions for a permanent colony have arrived. Additional missions by new competitors are underway.

Space Elevators: Plans drawn for carbon nanotube a space elevator; enabling access to space without the use of rockets, lowering costs and enabling the building of ships in space; practical for interplanetary travel.

Years


Medium

Medium

Medium

High

Medium

High

5+

Low

20+ 10+

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Fast Forward

Global Internet: The cost of global internet coverage is now minimal. Space Debris: An established and regulated industry open to tenders. Space Tourism: The first space hotel likely to be established. Virgin

Galactic will have numerous international competitors. Asteroid mining: A necessity to provide both Space Infrastructure,

planned Martian colonies, and Earth with water and valuable minerals. Mars: Colonies are established but small, commercial activity between

Earth begins, and plans drawn for eventual terraforming. Mars Space Elevator Plans: In planning. Earth Space Elevator Plans: Depending on technology,

may be under construction. Space Based Agriculture becomes crucial to feed the billions of

humans on Earth, and Martian Colonies. Lunar Tourism: A viable industry, possibly in conjunction with a

commercial Moon Base.

Medium

Low

High

Medium

High

No Risk

Medium

Low

Low


Years 5+ 20+ 10+

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Get in touch with For a detailed business specification covering SVI’s investment strategies, corporate structures and business plan, please contact us.

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Business Development UK and Rest of World

Frankfurt am Main

[email protected]

Simon Drake (MD) Brad Lewis Kevin Mac Gowan

[email protected] [email protected]

Space Commerce Analyst & Business Development

North America

Avon, Connecticut

Business Development Germany, Austria,

Switzerland and France

Frankfurt am Main

space commerce presentation 2015spaceventuresinvestors.com/downloads/space-ventures...new advances...

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