south east asia iron and steel institute newsletter · video conferencing apps like zoom and the...

20
Greetings from SEAISI! COVID-19 Continues to Break Records Month after month, COVID-19 continues to spread and break records, in terms of infections and fatality. Another record broken is probably the amount of time that humankind remains at home, avoiding public places and at times, peering at the computer screen in an attempt to re-engage with friends and colleagues via video conferencing apps like Zoom and the like. Steel Demand Forecast It was through one of these apps, that I attend- ed the worldsteel Economics Committee (ECON) meetings over the last couple of months. During these discussions, economists and steel experts debated about the impact of COVID-19 while they attempted to forecast the demand for steel in 2020 and 2021. Meeting after meeting, forecasts were revised, almost all downwards. After all the debates, most agreed that 2020 will certainly be a bad year. National and regional lockdowns have severely affected the steel consuming sectors such as construction, automotive, machinery, shipbuilding and others. Demand for steel in many countries are expected to be down by double digit percentage points. Everyone agreed that 2021 will see a jump in steel demand as countries recover from COVID-19. Governments will obviously put in resources to get their economies back on track. But still, the new norms which includes encour- aging social distancing and discouraging mass gatherings will continue to apply downward Publisher: SEAISI Editor: Pichsini Tepa-Apirak Contributing Editor: Josephine Fong Printer: PLANAX Marketing (M) Sdn. Bhd. Email: [email protected] Tel: 603 55191102 Fax: 603 55191159 Website: www.seaisi.org MESSAGE FROM THE SECRETARY GENERAL 01 SOUTH EAST ASIA IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE MAY 2020 NEWSLETTER ISSN 0166-9645 provide tax revenues, employment and economic stability to nations. Local indus- tries have loyalty while imports being imports, mostly go to the highest bidder. I remember the time after the China export tsunami of 2013-2016, as regional demand improved, many shipments of steel from China intended for ASEAN countries were diverted elsewhere. Why? Because prices were higher elsewhere. You get the drift … To understand more about the history of China steel exports to ASEAN, check out the headline news within this newsletter. The 2020 SEAISI e-Conference Get updated about what’s going in ASEAN and the Steel Industry during COVID-19! Come & join the 2020 SEAISI e-Conference. The SEAISI Conference is the one and only annual event, by the Steel Industry for the Steel Industry in ASEAN. There is no other. SEAISI will hold an e-Conference from 30 June 2020 to 2 July 2020. The event will run from 3pm to 6pm for 3 days, covering: Regional Developments Market Perspectives 10 Country Reports across APAC region Plenary Session with Steel Industry CEO’s discussing about COVID-19 impacts These are topics you find in the usual SEAISI Conference & Exhibition held every year. The difference is, it will be online this year. Selamat Hari Raya, Happy Eid Mubarak The Institute would like to wish all our Muslim stakeholders, partners and friends, Selamat Hari Raya, Happy Eid Mubarak. Keep Your Distance. Stay Healthy. Stay Safe. YEOH WEE JIN pressure on demand. How good 2021 will be, is still a question mark, given the uncer- tainty in the winds. The ASEAN Steel Industry Situation Last month, we pointed out that ASEAN countries are also facing weak demand due to COVID-19. Lockdowns in various forms and disruption in global supply chains have stalled the construction industry and other manufacturing sectors for the past couple of months in the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore. Even in countries that do not impose strict lockdowns, construction projects have slowed down due to restricted movements. Also, government funds are being diverted from public construction projects and other economic activities to fight the COVID-19 war. Huge government stimulus packages have been announced to support the people and industries all over ASEAN; this is no different elsewhere in the world. Countries that are dependent on oil, such as Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia are facing a double whammy, as oil revenues dry up in the current oil shock. Traditionally, ASEAN governments will pump prime the economies by increasing public construction works. By increasing demand this way, the recovery of the manufacturing sector and services will eventually follow. However, pump priming only works if governments have sufficient funds to do so. The current situation is worse because many countries are affected and funds from the more advance economies may no longer be readily available. Supporting People and Industries With so much resources being spent on stimulus packages to restart economies, ASEAN Governments really need to ensure that local employment is protected and that local businesses survive during these times. As such, it is high time that, ASEAN Govern- ments take a hard look at their import policies and slowing imports of “like” products. This will give the local industries a breather to survive. Local industries, NOT imports,

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Page 1: SOUTH EAST ASIA IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE NEWSLETTER · video conferencing apps like Zoom and the like. Steel Demand Forecast It was through one of these apps, that I attend-ed the

Greetings from SEAISI!

COVID-19 Continues to Break Records

Month after month, COVID-19 continues to spread and break records, in terms of infections and fatality. Another record broken is probably the amount of time that humankind remains at home, avoiding public places and at times, peering at the computer screen in an attempt to re-engage with friends and colleagues via video conferencing apps like Zoom and the like.

Steel Demand Forecast

It was through one of these apps, that I attend-ed the worldsteel Economics Committee (ECON) meetings over the last couple of months. During these discussions, economists and steel experts debated about the impact of COVID-19 while they attempted to forecast the demand for steel in 2020 and 2021.

Meeting after meeting, forecasts were revised, almost all downwards. After all the debates, most agreed that 2020 will certainly be a bad year. National and regional lockdowns have severely affected the steel consuming sectors such as construction, automotive, machinery, shipbuilding and others. Demand for steel in many countries are expected to be down by double digit percentage points.

Everyone agreed that 2021 will see a jump in steel demand as countries recover from COVID-19. Governments will obviously put in resources to get their economies back on track. But still, the new norms which includes encour-aging social distancing and discouraging mass gatherings will continue to apply downward

Publisher: SEAISI Editor: Pichsini Tepa-Apirak Contributing Editor: Josephine Fong Printer: PLANAX Marketing (M) Sdn. Bhd.Email: [email protected] Tel: 603 55191102 Fax: 603 55191159 Website: www.seaisi.org

MESSAGE FROM THE SECRETARY GENERAL 01

SOUTH EAST ASIA IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE

MAY 2020

NEWSLETTER ISSN 0166-9645

provide tax revenues, employment and economic stability to nations. Local indus-tries have loyalty while imports being imports, mostly go to the highest bidder.

I remember the time after the China export tsunami of 2013-2016, as regional demand improved, many shipments of steel from China intended for ASEAN countries were diverted elsewhere. Why? Because prices were higher elsewhere. You get the drift …

To understand more about the history of China steel exports to ASEAN, check out the headline news within this newsletter.

The 2020 SEAISI e-Conference

Get updated about what’s going in ASEAN and the Steel Industry during COVID-19! Come & join the 2020 SEAISI e-Conference.

The SEAISI Conference is the one and only annual event, by the Steel Industry for the Steel Industry in ASEAN. There is no other.

SEAISI will hold an e-Conference from 30 June 2020 to 2 July 2020. The event will run from 3pm to 6pm for 3 days, covering:

Regional DevelopmentsMarket Perspectives10 Country Reports across APAC regionPlenary Session with Steel Industry CEO’s discussing about COVID-19 impacts

These are topics you find in the usual SEAISI Conference & Exhibition held every year. The difference is, it will be online this year.

Selamat Hari Raya, Happy Eid Mubarak

The Institute would like to wish all our Muslim stakeholders, partners and friends, Selamat Hari Raya, Happy Eid Mubarak.

Keep Your Distance. Stay Healthy. Stay Safe.

YEOH WEE JIN

pressure on demand. How good 2021 will be, is still a question mark, given the uncer-tainty in the winds.

The ASEAN Steel Industry Situation

Last month, we pointed out that ASEAN countries are also facing weak demand due to COVID-19. Lockdowns in various forms and disruption in global supply chains have stalled the construction industry and other manufacturing sectors for the past couple of months in the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore. Even in countries that do not impose strict lockdowns, construction projects have slowed down due to restricted movements. Also, government funds are being diverted from public construction projects and other economic activities to fight the COVID-19 war.

Huge government stimulus packages have been announced to support the people and industries all over ASEAN; this is no different elsewhere in the world.

Countries that are dependent on oil, such as Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia are facing a double whammy, as oil revenues dry up in the current oil shock.

Traditionally, ASEAN governments will pump prime the economies by increasing public construction works. By increasing demand this way, the recovery of the manufacturing sector and services will eventually follow. However, pump priming only works if governments have sufficient funds to do so. The current situation is worse because many countries are affected and funds from the more advance economies may no longer be readily available.

Supporting People and Industries

With so much resources being spent on stimulus packages to restart economies, ASEAN Governments really need to ensure that local employment is protected and that local businesses survive during these times.

As such, it is high time that, ASEAN Govern-ments take a hard look at their import policies and slowing imports of “like” products. This will give the local industries a breather to survive. Local industries, NOT imports,

Page 2: SOUTH EAST ASIA IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE NEWSLETTER · video conferencing apps like Zoom and the like. Steel Demand Forecast It was through one of these apps, that I attend-ed the

Capacity Evaluation of Hybrid Steel Sections

(Built-up Steel Sections with Variable Yield Strength)

By Nuttapon Suttitam

General Manager, Steel Construction Technology and Market

Development, Sahaviriya Steel Industries (SSI) PCL.

Chairman, Steel application for construction sector, South East Asia

Iron and Steel Institute (SEAISI)

General Committee & Steel Structure Sub-committee, Engineering

Institute of Thailand (EIT)

Committee, Thai Green Building Institute (TGBI)

Introduction

I-shaped steel sections, generally known as wide flange sections,

can be produced from either hot rolling process from blooms or from

slabs, which will be transformed into hot-rolled plates or hot-rolled

coils at required thickness, then cut into strips at required width, and

finally all 3 pieces will be welded together forming a section of I

shape. Steel sections produced as per the latter mentioned process is

generally called built-up sections, which are widely used in various

applications from industrial building or bridge construction as per

picture 1.

Project in Thailand: designed, fabricated and constructed by SSI

Picture 1: Application of I-shaped built-up steel section

As far as the structural steel design is concerned, the design

standard and code of practice in Thailand typically follow the design

procedures as per the Specification for Structural Steel Buildings by

American Institute of Steel Construction (AISC), AISC 360. However,

flexural, shear and axial capacity evaluation of structural steel built-

up I-shaped sections has some limitation as it is valid for the

composition of homogeneous strength steel plates only.

It is generally known that the flexural capacity of I-shaped steel

sections will be mainly affected by the flange part while the shear

capacity of such will be mainly affected by the web part. Since most

of beam elements are generally flexural control rather than shear

control, the higher strength flanges will benefit the flexural

performance of beams, resulting in more cost competitiveness. As a

result, it seems to be cost effectively practical to use I-shaped hybrid

steel sections composing of different yield strength steel strips. This

study aimed to cover the behavior and computational methods of

built-up I-shaped steel beams composing of different-grade steel

plates through laboratory testing with different lateral bracing

conditions.

Research Objectives

1. To investigate the effects from lateral bracing that results in

the lateral torsional buckling modification factor, Cb, which

may cause higher flexural moment capacity of beam

2. To determine the procedures to predict flexural capacity of

hybrid beam (built-up I-shaped steel beams composing of

different - grade steel plates)

Research Framework

This research project was initiated by the Steel Construction

Technology and Market Development, Sahaviriya Steel Industries

PCL. (SSI) under the collaboration of Civil Engineering Department,

King Mongkut University of Technology at Thonburi (KMUTT).

Initially, the research was planned to study the load-carrying

behavior of simply-supported I-shaped built-up steel beams

composing of (1) homogeneously normal grade (HY370*) I-shaped

built-up sections (2) homogenously high strength grade (HY420**) I-

shaped built-up sections and (3) Hybrid I-shaped built-up sections

composing of HY420 for flanges and HY370 for web at different

laterally braced conditions, i.e. (A) laterally braced at both supports

and one third and two third of beam length (B) laterally braced at

both supports and mid beam length and. With 2 samples being

tested per each condition, the numbers of specimens to be tested in

the laboratory are of 3*2*2 = 12 in total. The nominal dimension of

all 12 beams will be of 300 mm in depth and 150 mm in width (of

both flanges) with flange thickness of 9 mm and web thickness of 6

mm. Picture 2 presents the laboratory test set-up for 2 different

conditions.

Picture 2: Laboratory test set-up

Since, not only the actual dimensions in size (width, depth and

thickness) can be varying due to manufacturing accuracy, the yield

strength of steel strips can also be varying due to slab grades and hot

rolling process, the actual nomenclature and yield strength of all

elements for 12 specimens are shown in Table 1.

Page 3: SOUTH EAST ASIA IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE NEWSLETTER · video conferencing apps like Zoom and the like. Steel Demand Forecast It was through one of these apps, that I attend-ed the

Table 1: Actual dimensions and yield strengths of flanges and webs

of 12 specimens

Note

* HY370 = High Yield 370 MPa ** HY420 = High Yield 420 MPa

Laboratory Test Result

Laboratory test results of all 12 specimens are shown in Figure 1.

The test results indicate linear behavior of I-shaped hybrid built-up

sections upto certain moment-curvature (load-deflection) when

normal stresses at any points across the section do not reach yield

strength of steel material. Due to the introduction of residual stress

resulting in premature yielding of certain portions of top and bottom

flanges, the overall behavior starts representing nonlinear response

until normal stresses at any points reach yield strength, for which the

moment capacity at this stage is called plastic moment, Mp.

Moreover, the laboratory test results (condition A and condition B)

were also compared to Finite Element Model (FEM), and the failure

behavior and moment capacities of the specimens are harmoniously

consistent with the demonstrations and results from FEM as shown

in Figure 2.

Figure 1: Laboratory test results of 12 specimens

Figure 2: Laboratory test results in comparison with finite element

analysis for condition A and B

Findings

1. The location of bracings directly affects Cb value resulting in

higher moment capacity of beams in Lateral Torsional Buckling

Limit State. Therefore, the numbers of bracing can be reduced

by optimizing Cb value.

2. Mp of I-shaped hybrid built-up beams, for which all the

elements across the section reach yield strength, can simply

be calculated based on basic structural steel behavior.

However, in actual circumstances when lateral bracings of

beams are inadequate or sections are not compact, lateral

torsional buckling (LTB) or local buckling (LB) will then be

governed. The behavior of I-shaped hybrid beams under

inadequate lateral bracings or non-compact section condition

will then need to be further studied.

For homogeneous built-up I-shaped beams, the calculation

can be performed as per AISC 360 or any design code compliance

made available. However, to facilitate all structural design engineers,

our team also developed structural steel design calculator on both

Android and iOS mobile application platforms, simply called “SSI

Steel Design” (see Picture 3). This mobile application aims to help

structural engineers perform quick design and decision making in

sizes and material grades of not only built-up sections for both

beams and columns, but also hollow steel sections (HSS) for columns.

Finally, on behalf of SSI PCL., we would like to express our sincere

appreciation to the Associate Prof. Dr. Sutat Leelataweewat and his

colleagues from the Civil Engineering Department, KMUTT, for their

dedicated support on this successful study.

Picture 3: “SSI Steel Design” Mobile application

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4 SEAISI Newsletter, May 2020

ContentsMessage from Secretary General ....................................................... 1

Green revolution seen turning around Australia’s steel industry ... 4

Indonesia’s Delong commissions first second-phase furnace ......... 4

Tsingshan’s stainless steel plant in Fujian stepped up NPI

procurement ....................................................................................... 5

Japan’s Apr manufacturing activity sinks to 11-year low, could

force more steel cuts .......................................................................... 5

Nippon EGalv Steel to shutter ops ...................................................... 5

POSCO: Pay attention to speed of downstream normalization in

Post-COVID-19 Era ............................................................................... 6

Hyundai Steel: Focus on 2H20 Investment ................................... 6

Posco to focus on premium construction steel products for

new growth ......................................................................................... 6

POSCO decides to make cut in production in 12 years ...................... 7

Local players up in arms over Wenan steel project in Sarawak ....... 7

Steel Asia resumes rebar production ................................................ 9

Taiwan steel industry expects impact from EU anti-dumping .......... 9

Vietnamese HRC sinks on negative sentiment .................................. 9

Thailand’s billet imports register slight fall, slab plunges ................ 9

Thailand to terminate non-alloy HRC safeguards ........................... 10

Coronavirus outbreak and lockdown impact weighs on steel

industry ............................................................................................. 10

Hoa Phat output falls, but exports rise ............................................ 10

Posco’s Vietnam subsidiary to sell rebar mill ................................. 10

Indian steelmakers face worker shortage, excess

inventory: Ind-Ra .............................................................................. 10

India’s steel industry resumes partial operations amid prolonged

lockdown ........................................................................................... 11

India: Amid coronavirus lockdown, steel demand pick-up off to

a slow start ....................................................................................... 11

China’s Baowu dethrones long-reigning steel king ArcelorMittal .. 12

China extends anti-dumping duties on U.S., EU steel tubes and

pipes for five years ............................................................................ 13

Daily crude steel output at CISA key mills up 2% in early May ........ 13

Covid-19 pandemic hits US steel demand and prices ..................... 13

Excess steel capacity an ‘enormous’ issue in coronavirus

recovery: AISI ..................................................................................... 13

US launches Section 232 investigation into transformer

components ...................................................................................... 14

US proposes dropping some duties on large-diameter pipe steel . 14

How will coronavirus pandemic affect global steel production

in 2020 & 2021? ................................................................................ 15

China’s Steel Export Tax Rebate vs its Steel Export to ASEAN-6 ....... 16

A U S T R A L I A Green revolution seen turning around Australia’s steel industry

Australia can benefit from its abundance of cheap wind andsolar power generation to arrest decades of decline in its steel-making industry.

Harnessing the nation’s iron ore resources and using hydrogenproduced by renewable power, Australia could capture about6.5% of the global steel market, generate about A$65 billion ($43billion) in annual export revenue and create tens of thousandsof manufacturing jobs, the Grattan Institute policy think tanksaid in a report on Monday. The so-called green steel would alsocut the need for polluting metallurgical coal.

“Climate change is a wicked conundrum for Australia,” the reportsaid. “It’s a threat to our health and to our agriculture and tourismindustries — but tens of thousands of Australians work inindustries that rely on fossil fuels. This practical plan could bea win-win-win.”

The technology is still in its infancy and efforts to make it acommercial reality are furthest advanced in Europe, wherepolicymakers are quickly tightening the screws on industry toscale back pollution. The industrial gas maker Air Liquide SA,steelmaker ThyssenKrupp AG and oil major Royal Dutch ShellPlc have some of the highest profile demonstration projects.

Australia’s steel industry has long been in decline. It now ranksas only the 26th largest producer, with annual output of about5.7 million tons, according to the World Steel Association. China,the top producer, churned out almost 1 billion tons in 2019,more than half the global total.

Efforts to resuscitate the sector have focused on finding cheapersources of power. Sanjeev Gupta’s GFG Alliance in 2017 acquiredthe Whyalla steelworks in South Australia, after owner Arriumwent into administration, and laid out plans to use solarelectricity, hydro power and storage batteries to overcomesoaring energy costs.

“Australia’s extensive wind and solar energy resources mean wecan make hydrogen, and therefore green steel, more cheaply thancountries such as Japan, Korea, and Indonesia,” the Grattan reportsaid. It would also create jobs in regions which are currentlydominated by coal and other carbon-intensive industries, wherelivelihoods are threatened by global efforts to tackle climatechange by cutting greenhouse-gas emissions.

Bloomberg, May 12, 2020

Indonesia’s Delong commissions first second-phase furnace

Delong’s ferronickel project in Indonesia has commissioned thefirst rotary kiln electric arc furnace (RKEF) for its second phase,Kallanish notes.

In the second phase, it plans to build 35 of the 33,000KVA RKEFlines, six 100-tonne AOD furnaces, a power plant and a 60 milliontonnes/year capacity terminal. After the equipment iscommissioned, the plant is expected to have 1.1m t/y of

I N D O N E S I A

Page 5: SOUTH EAST ASIA IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE NEWSLETTER · video conferencing apps like Zoom and the like. Steel Demand Forecast It was through one of these apps, that I attend-ed the

SEAISI Newsletter, May 2020 5

ferronickel capacity. Delong is also targeting stainless capacityof 2.5m t/y in Indonesia.

Located in the China-Indonesia Ferro-Iron Industrial Park inSoutheast Sulawesi, Jiangsu Delong Nickel cooperated withXiamen Xiangyu to set up a local company called PT ObsidianStainless Steel.

The first phase was commissioned in February 2020, operating15 RKEF furnaces. During the first phase, the plant built 1533,000KVA RKEF lines and a power plant. It was initially designedfor 108,000 t/y of ferronickel capacity and then expanded to600,000 t/y.

Kallanish, May 1, 2020

Tsingshan’s stainless steel plant in Fujian stepped up NPIprocurement

Tsingshan’s stainless steel mill in south China’s Fujian provincehas just made another large purchase of high-grade nickel pigiron (NPI), bringing its cumulative procurement for this month to100,000 mt which is estimated to secure its production until atleast July.

The latest purchase stood at about 10,000 mt with the price at1,005 yuan/mtu, ex-works.

The mill consumes around 250,000 mt of high-grade NPI permonth, and its procurement volume varies from month to monthas it has captive NPI plants both in China and overseas.

The market was surprised by the aggressive buying by the mill,as NPI shipments from its plant Indonesia were not disrupted bythe coronavirus restrictions.

SMM assessed ex-works, tax-included prices of NPI with 8-12%Ni content at 941 yuan/mtu as of May 14, up nearly 8% from athree-year trough of 872.5 yuan/mtu seen in late March andearly April.

SMM News, May 14, 2020

Japan’s Apr manufacturing activity sinks to 11-year low, couldforce more steel cuts

Japan’s manufacturing activity fell to an 11-year low in April asdomestic and export demand plummeted, forcing companies tocut production, according to the Jibun Bank Japan ManufacturingPurchasing Managers’ Index released Friday.

The headline PMI of 41.9 points in April was down from 44.8 inMarch, while export orders fell at the fastest rate since the globalfinancial crisis in 2019.

“Declines were overwhelmingly attributed to the global COVID-19 pandemic, which had caused external demand to collapse,”Jibun Bank said in a statement. “Supply chain dislocations wereonce again apparent as vendors shut down their operations,causing shortages of inputs,” it added.

J A P A N

The parlous report card comes as no surprise, as Japan’sautomakers have been slashing production in response to thedownturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

S&P Global Platts estimates Japan’s automakers will require 10%-15% less steel in the first half of 2020 than the year before. Inresponse to deteriorating market conditions, Nippon Steel andJFE Steel have reduced output from blast furnaces from Aprilthrough June.

Japan’s crude steel production in the first quarter fell 2.4% yearon year to 24.3 million mt, while pig iron output of 18.5 millionmt was up 1.3% on year, according to World Steel Associationdata.

In 2019, Japan exported roughly a third of the 99.3 million mt ofsteel it produced. Some 10 million mt of that was hot-rolled widestrip, Ministry of Finance data showed. Supplying Japanesesubsidiaries and manufacturing hubs in Southeast Asia andelsewhere this year has been challenging due to coronavirus-related lockdowns and transport restrictions.

The ailing global auto sector has taken an even bigger hit thisyear because consumers are staying indoors and in many casesare suffering economically.

The downturn domestically and lack of export opportunitiessuggest Japanese mills may need to cut production further,according to Platts calculations. This in turn could furtherdampen demand for iron ore and coking coal, and see more termcargoes sold back into the spot market.

Platts, May 4, 2020

Nippon EGalv Steel to shutter ops

Nippon EGalv Steel Sdn Bhd, a subsidiary of Nippon Steel andSumitomo Metal Corporation is expected to shutter its operationsin Penang on July 31.

The electro-galvanised (EG) steel manufacturer informed itsbusiness partners of the decision in a letter yesterday, withoutelaborating.

Nippon EGalv, is located in Seberang Prai and has an estimated160 employees.

Nippon Steel Corp is a major global steel maker was reported inMarch this year to have announced plans to liquidate itsfinancially-troubled subsidiary in Malaysia that produces steelsheets for electric appliances.

It was said that the company is expected to disband its operationsin Malaysia by the end of this year, once it ceases manufacturingEG steel sheets in June.

It was also reported that once it ceased its local production ofEG in Malaysia, Nippon Steel will supply the material made at itsironworks in Chiba and Hyogo prefectures in Japan directly toits Malaysian customers, comprising mainly television and audioequipment makers.

In his letter to the company’s business partners dated May 13,Nippon EGalv president, Norihisa Hanada said:

Page 6: SOUTH EAST ASIA IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE NEWSLETTER · video conferencing apps like Zoom and the like. Steel Demand Forecast It was through one of these apps, that I attend-ed the

6 SEAISI Newsletter, May 2020

“If we have any active agreement and contract with your company,this letter serves as a termination notice for the respectivecontracts and agreements.

“Payments for all outstanding invoices will be arranged.”

The current Nippon Steel was established in 2012 as NipponSteel and Sumitomo Metal Corpation, through a merger betweenNippon Steel and Sumitomo Metal Industries, Ltd. and wasrenamed Nippon Steel in 2019.

New Straits Times, May 15, 2020

POSCO: Pay attention to speed of downstream normalization inPost-COVID-19 Era

POSCO’s 1Q20 OP exceeded consensus. We expect the impact ofCovid-19 to be greatest in 2Q20, with demand to recover on thenormalization of downstream industries from 2H20. Theacquisition of treasury shares and a likely dividend of W10,000per share are predicted to offer strong downside support to thestock.

1Q20 consolidated OP falls 41.4% y-y

On a preliminary basis, POSCO registered consolidated 1Q20sales of W14.55tn (-9.2% y-y, -9.3% q-q), OP of W705.3bn (-41.4%y-y, +26.5% q-q), and NP (excluding minority interests) ofW395.4bn (-46.7% y-y, +680.3% q-q), with sales arriving 4.9%short of expectations but OP and NP exceeding forecasts by 16.3%and 6.8%, respectively. A decline in raw material prices andimproved earnings in the global infrastructure sector (includingconstruction and energy) led to a q-q hike in OP.

Non-consolidated OP came in at W458.1bn (-45.0% y-y, + 24.8%q-q). With carbon steel ASP falling by W5,000 q-q and rawmaterial costs dropping by W20,000/ton q-q, profitabilityimproved. Non-consolidated OPM grew 1.6%p q-q to 6.6%.Affected by repair work at Gwangyang blast furnace #3 andconstruction work at HR line #4, product sales slid to W8.62mntons (-7.1% y-y, -4.3% q-q).

Downside support strengthened; rebound in economic activitykey to share price hike

During its earnings call, POSCO lowered its 2020 consolidatedsales forecast by 9.8% and non-consolidated sales volumeestimate by 7.4%. Although the impact of Covid-19 is expected tofade from 2H20 after dealing its heaviest blow in 2Q20,downward revision of earnings forecasts looks inevitable due tolikely reduced sales volumes and lower product prices.

That said, the firm’s plans to acquire W1tn worth of treasurystock and pay out a DPS of W10,000 should strengthen itsdownside support. And, the stock is forecast to rebound as theCovid-19 crisis fades and economic activity resumes. However,the pace of normalization in downstream industries will be keyvariables, with China’s high steel inventory and cost burdenassociated with iron ore prices likely limiting POSCO’sperformance and stock price rebound.

Business Korea, April 28, 2020

Hyundai Steel: Focus on 2H20 Investment

Hyundai Steel booked operating losses for a second quarter in arow. Believing that earnings impact from the Covid-19 will hit itsworst point in 2Q20, we forecast a 8.0% y-o-y drop in full-year2020 sales volume. But, the firm’s shares (currently trading at a2020E P/B of only 0.2x) are to rebound once economic activitiesspeed up upon the subsiding of the Covid-19 crisis.

Quarterly operating losses continue in 1Q20

Hyundai Steel’s preliminary consolidated results display 1Q20sales of W4.668tn (-8.0% y-y), operating losses of W29.7bn (TTLy-y), and NP (excluding minority interests) of W115.4bn (TTL y-y),with the firm booking operating losses for the second quarter ina row. Consensus had predicted 1Q20 OP of W2.9bn.

On a non-consolidated basis, Hyundai Steel showed operatinglosses of W21.3bn (TTL y-y). While costs for the main rawmaterials (iron ore, hard coking coal) at the company’s blastfurnace operations narrowed W10,000/ton q-q, marginsimproved slightly as ASPs for cold-rolled, hot-rolled, and plateproducts remained flat q-q. Looking at the firm’s electric furnacebusiness, the scrap price dropped W10,000/ton q-q, and ASPsfor rebar and section products upped W25,000, expanding thespread by W40,000/ton. While margins improved at bothbusinesses, the level of benefit was insufficient to help the firmescape the red.

Impact of Covid-19 to reach worst point in 2Q20; earnings toimprove from 2H20

We estimate that Hyundai Steel’s 2020 sales volume will decrease8.0% y-y to 19.62mn tons, and OP will drop 45.2% to W62.3bn.The impacts of Covid-19 are to hit their worst point in 2Q20, withsales inevitably to be harmed by both: 1) temporary productionsuspensions at HMC and Kia; and 2) a contraction in global steeldemand. Quarterly operating income should divide as: 1Q20 -W68.9bn (TTL y-y), 3Q20 W39.2bn (+15.0% y-y), and 4Q20W121.6bn (TTP y-y).

Assuming a speeding up in the resumption of economic activitiesand the appearance of visible declines in inventory, HyundaiSteel’s earnings should improve from 2H20. With the firm’sshares currently trading at a 2020E P/B of only 0.2X, we adhereto a Buy rating and a TP of W27,000.

Business Korea, April 28, 2020

Posco to focus on premium construction steel products for newgrowth

Posco, South Korea’s largest steel maker, is pitching premiumconstruction steel products as new revenue engine along withvehicle plates.

“Posco Group units will go all out to develop premium steelproducts to meet the safety and environment requirements forthe future construction market,” said Jeong Tak, head of themarketing division at Posco, during a press conference heldThursday at The Sharp Gallery in Seoul.

Posco launched the premium structural steel brand Innovilt inNovember last year with its construction steel product-making

K O R E A

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SEAISI Newsletter, May 2020 7

customers using its steel materials to enhance the qualitystandard of steel products for building through alliance.

The Sharp Gallery, a three-story building commanding a floorspace of 4,966 square meters (53,454 square feet) near the DosanPark in Gangnam-gu of Seoul, was built to promote its steelmaterials and products with the Innovilt brand in March. Posco’sPosMAC steel materials that are three-times more corrosion-resistant were used in building construction, with other premiumsteel materials amounting to 760 tons in total.

Interior of the gallery is decorated with PosART steels applyingadvanced resolution ink jet printing techniques to give the textureand feel of real wood and marble. In the first-floor lobby area, amedia table that displays the information of Innovilt brandedsteel products is installed, catching eyes of visitors.

Posco is planning to use The Sharp Gallery as an exhibition forits Innovilt products and bolster ties with the productmanufacturers for joint marketing activities.

Currently, six Innovilt branded products are displayed besidethe media table including a steel curtain wall for the outer wallof classy buildings made by NI Steel Co. and corrugated steelpanel for structural stability and building efficiency developedby ChungAmEnC Co.

Posco hopes the Innovilt products would help raise its dominancein the domestic construction steel market with a combined yearlymarket demand of 22 million tons – 10 million tons of steel barsand 12 million tons of premium products.

“The company aims to raise the annual sales volume of Innoviltpremium steel products to 14 million tons at home and abroadby 2030 from current 4 million tons,” said Kim Sang-kyun,marketing director for steel products at Posco.

Pulse, May 8, 2020

POSCO decides to make cut in production in 12 years

POSCO has decided to make the first cut in production in 12years since 2008. Even major steelmakers at home and abroad,such as ArcellorMittal and Hyundai Steel, pruned productionvolume, but POSCO did not. A decline in demand, however, due tothe economic recession finally coerced the steelmaker to revisedown its production volume.

POSCO plans to reduce production capacity of 980,000 tons inMay only by lowering the utilization rate of its production linessuch as cold- and hot-rolled steel sheets at Pohang andGwangyang Works, said sources in the steel industry on May 10.Specifically, POSCO will cut 180,000 tons at Pohang Works and800,000 tons at Gwangyang Works. Considering the fact that thecrude steel production of Pohang and Gwangyang Works in thesecond quarter of 2019 hit 8.85 million tons, POSCO will decreaseits average monthly production by more than 30 percent.

The main culprit behind this cut is a slowdown in demand fromthe downstream industry, triggered by the novel coronaviruscrisis. In particular, a decline in automobile production had abig impact on the cut. Korean automobile production(approximately 813,000 units) in the first quarter of 2020 shrank

about 15 percent from the same period of 2019, and is expectedto decrease by 20 percent in the second quarter (856,000 units).The automotive industry is the largest consumer that buys 30percent of total steel production. POSCO has decided to make abig cut in production at Gwangyang Works since GwangyangWorks mainly produces steel products for automobiles. Inaddition, demand for steel plates for ships has been on thedecline.

The production method chosen by POSCO this time is the so-called flexible production system in which the steel industryregulates product output instead of shutting down blast furnaces.The method is called “the last resort” in the steel industry. Ablast furnace maintains its internal temperature above 1,500degrees throughout a year to produce molten iron. It is difficultto actually stop a blast furnace, because even after stopping itsoperation for a day, molten iron hardens so it will take severalmonths to restart the blast furnace.

It will be the second time since POSCO’s establishment that POSCOwill start to cut production. At the time of the global financialcrisis in 2008, POSCO reduced steel products such as hot- andcold-rolled steel over 570,000 tons for two months due toinventory accumulation and a slump in the overallmanufacturing industry.

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced global steelmakers such asArcellorMittal, Nippon Steel, and US Steel to put a halt tooperating their blast furnaces and start production cuts. In Korea,Dangjin Steel Mill of Hyundai Steel is considering stopping theoperation of an electric hot-rolled furnace. However, thanks tothe repair of Gwangyang Blast Furnace #3 that started in the firstquarter of the year, POSCO did not artificially cut productiondue to natural reduction effects from the repair, but it seems toreach its limit. POSCO is even considering extending the repairperiod of Gwangyang Blast Furnace #3 to reduce production.

“We are also considering a plan to postpone the restart time ofthe Gwangyang Blast Furnace #3 scheduled for the end of May toAugust or September,” a POSCO official said. “We are reducingmaterial input and adjusting production by stopping iron scraps,a material for molten iron in order to decrease production fromthe blast furnace.”

Business Korea, May 12, 2020

Local players up in arms over Wenan steel project in Sarawak

It may not be the most important issue right now but when theCovid-19 crisis ends, the Ministry of International Trade andIndustry (Miti) will have to decide whether or not to approve thecontroversial Wenan steel project in Bintulu, Sarawak.

With an estimated production capacity of 10 million tonnes perannum, the multi-billion-ringgit Wenan steel project, which willbe mainly funded by investors from China, will be the largeststeel manufacturing plant in the region once it is completed.

While the Covid-19 pandemic and change in government maydelay the project, work on which is expected to commence in themiddle of this year, local steel makers have already made itclear that they are against it.

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In fact, in February, the Malaysian Iron and Steel IndustryFederation and Malaysia Steel Association publicly opposed theproject, which will be located in the Samalaju Industrial Parkwithin the Sarawak Corridor of Renewable Energy.

In a joint statement on Feb 4, the two steel associations calledfor an immediate freeze on manufacturing licences for newinvestments in long and flat steel products in Malaysia due toovercapacity in the industry.

“If allowed to materialise, the local steel industry sees theproposed 10 million tonnes per annum steel project exacerbatingthe overcapacity in the country,” they said in the statement.

It is worth noting that the Wenan steel plant’s production capacitywas raised to 10 million tonnes per annum from the originallyplanned 3.5 million tonnes per annum.

Malaysia’s total steel consumption in 2018 was 9.77 milliontonnes but the total installed capacity was 24.64 million tonnes— with 12.64 million tonnes and 12 million tonnes for long andflat steel products respectively.

In the current situation, says Federation of MalaysianManufacturers (FMM) president Tan Sri Soh Thian Lai, the countrycannot afford to have another massive steel plant that willcompete with existing local players.

“The oversupply situation in Malaysia is severe. How we solvethis problem would depend on how the new licence is issued,” hetells The Edge.

FMM is the largest private sector economic organisation inMalaysia, representing more than 3,000 manufacturing andindustrial service companies of varying sizes.

Soh stresses that if the government allows new players to makeproducts such as steel bars, wire rods, hot-rolled coils and cold-rolled coils, it will worsen the oversupply situation and put thelocal steel companies in an even tougher position.

“There is no chance for them to turn around; they will continueto lose money. This will cause them to cease operations andretrench workers,” he warns.

Many local steel makers have invested billions in the industrysince the early 1980s, Soh points out.

At press time, Miti had not responded to The Edge’s queries onthe matter.

The Chinese factor

The Wenan steel project was conceived in 2016 when two Chinesefirms, Hebei Xinquan Steel Group and MCC Overseas Ltd, signeda memorandum of understanding to conduct feasibility studieson an integrated steel plant with an installed capacity of fivemillion tonnes per annum.

It was reported that the project would attract RM13 billion intotal investments, marking the biggest foreign direct investment(FDI) for Sarawak.

Interestingly, MCC, a unit of Chinese state-owned enterprise ChinaMetallurgical Group Corp, is also the contractor for AllianceSteel (M) Sdn Bhd’s integrated iron and steel works project inKuantan, Pahang.

MCC’s sister company, Metallurgical Corp of China Ltd, which isdual-listed in Shanghai and Hong Kong, will be the engineering,procurement and construction contractor for the Wenan steelproject.

A steel industry observer tells The Edge that any new investmentin a steel project should have the ability to elevate the country’ssteel industry to the next level rather than manufacture productsthat are already being produced locally.

“We are talking about railway tracks, electrical sheets, beamsand seamless pipes. If they could produce these products, thenthe whole value chain of our steel industry will be well in place,”he says.

The industry observer points out that the local players becamevery concerned after they found out that the Chinese firms mayhave purchased the land from the state government.

“The Chinese firms will have to plan from day one which type ofrolling mills they are going to put up, as well as what kind ofmachines and equipment they are bringing in. It is still not toolate for the government to make a decision now. But once theyput up the rolling mills, it will cause us a big problem,” he says.

FMM’s Soh concurs. He says as many steel companies from Chinaare able to produce high value-added and high technology steelproducts, the federal and state governments should attract thosetypes of FDI.

“We need to look in the right direction. Otherwise, this will be adisaster for the steel companies in Malaysia. We need thegovernment to support the local manufacturers. It doesn’t meanthat we shouldn’t encourage FDI but we need to be selective,” hereiterates.

Soh goes on to say that the Sarawak government must look atwhat is good for the country in the long run. “We know that theywant to attract investments but they should also look at thenational interest.”

He highlights the fact that today, almost none of the local steelmakers are producing I-beam, H-beam and alloy steel forautomotive parts and various other industries.

“Why don’t we attract such foreign companies to come here? Weare talking about the viability of the steel business; we are talkingabout the survival of the local steel players. If the same productscome in here, the local steel industry will be wiped out,” he says.

Meanwhile, a steel industry expert believes that if the governmentwants to attract FDI, it must make sure that it will create jobopportunities for Malaysians. “It can be harmful to the countryif these issues are not addressed properly. Imagine what willhappen to us if all the FDI makes money or maybe even losesmoney, and then goes back to its own country?”

The Edge, April 30, 2020

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SEAISI Newsletter, May 2020 9

Steel Asia resumes rebar production

Steel Asia, a major steel producer in the Philippines, has resumedrebar production at the Meycauayan and Calaca plants in Luzon,Kallanish notes. This is primarily because the Philippinegovernment relaxed quarantine conditions for Luzon in May.

The Meycauayan plant is located in Ciudad Industria, BarrioBahay Pari Meycauayan City Bulacan at Centre Luzon. It operatestwo Danieli rebar rolling mills with a total capacity of 450,000tonnes/year.

Meanwhile, Steel Asia operates an EAF and rolling mills at Calacaworks, which is located at Phoenix Petroterminals & IndustrialPark, Calaca Batangas of Southern Luzon. The plant has 500,000t/y of rebar production capacity.

Kallanish, May 12, 2020

Taiwan steel industry expects impact from EU anti-dumping

The European Union has decided to impose anti-dumping dutiesfrom Thursday on imports of cold-rolled stainless steel fromChina, Taiwan and Indonesia, a move that Taiwanese steelmanufacturers said might imposed impact on the local industry.

The EU will apply anti-dumping tariffs of 14.5 percent-18.9 percenton steel imports from China, 17 percent for imports fromIndonesia and 6 percent or 7.5 percent for Taiwanese products,with the punitive measures set to come into force Thursday forsix months, extendable to five years, the European Commissionsaid Wednesday.

The decision came after the European Commission last yearinitiated an anti-dumping investigation into imports of hot-rolledstainless steel sheets and coils from China, Indonesia and Taiwan,and found that imports from these countries were made atdumped prices, causing substantial injury to various Europeanproducers.

In response, the Taiwan Steel and Iron Industries Associationsaid that Taiwanese steel products are subject to the lowesttariffs, showing that there is only a small difference between thesale prices of Taiwanese and European products.

However, Europe and the Untied States are the major importersof Taiwanese steel products, which means that the EU’s anti-dumping measures could have a negative effect on Taiwan’sindustry, the association added.

It further said that anti-dumping rates of over 50 percent havebeen slapped on steel imports from China over the past few years,but this year, merely 18.9 percent has been imposed, a slightdifference from the rates for Taiwanese imports, and thus theassociation anticipates that Taiwanese producers could have adifficult time grabbing a portion of their share lost to China inthe European market.

Taiwan’s steel industry representatives expect that upstreamsuppliers such as Yieh United Steel Corp. and Tang Eng Iron WorksCo. could bear the brunt of the EU’s anti-dumping measures.

However, the most recent financial statement from Yieh Unitedshows that exports account for 45 percent of its business andthat most of those exports go to Asian markets.

Meanwhile, Europe accounts for less than 3 percent of Tang Eng’sexports, so that the anti-dumping measures are unlikely to havemuch impact on the company.

Focus Taiwan News Channel, April 10, 2020

Thailand’s billet imports register slight fall, slab plunges

Thailand’s billet imports were marginally lower during the firstquarter of 2020, Kallanish notes. But its imports of slab plungedduring the first quarter.

Thailand imported 374,912 tonnes of billet during January-Marchthis year, -1.2% lower year-on-year, according to the Iron & SteelInstitute of Thailand (ISIT). The top three suppliers of billet wereOman, India and Vietnam at 155.608t, 96,112t and 52,493trespectively. Imports from Oman soared by nearly 290%.

Trading sources believe that the billet imports from Oman areactually from Iran. Thailand is a regular importer of Iranianbillet. Most recently, Thai buyers ordered 50,000t of Iranian billetfor early June shipment at nearly $370/tonne cif Thailand lastweek, trading sources report.

Indian billet, which was not visible last year, was the secondlargest source for the kingdom. India started exporting to Thailandin the fourth quarter of last year, a Thai trader says. However,Thai exports of billet fell by a significant -47.5% to 20,001t duringthe first quarter. All of this tonnage is exported to the Philippines.

Meanwhile, Thai imports of slab during the first quarter wereoverall -25.2% lower year-on-year at 256,400t. The main suppliersto Thailand were Japan and Russia. While Japanese slab exportsrose by a significant 114%, Russian slab fell by -45.3%. (Seetable below).

Leading semis suppliers to Thailand January-March 2020(tonnes)

Source: ISITKallanish, May 6, 2020

P H I L I P P I N E S

T A I W A N

T H A I L A N D

Billet Q1 2020 Q1 2019 Change (%)

Oman 155,608 39,914 290%

India 96,112 n/a n/a

Vietnam 52,493 25,315 107%

Russia 39.881 191,854 -79.2%

Qatar 20,332 5,142 295%

Slab Q1 2020 Q1 2019 Change (%)

Japan 149,517 69,992 114%

Russia 73,298 133,910 -45.3%

Oman 31,223 n/a n/a

Taiwan 2,326 n/a n/a

China 34 n/a n/ a

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10 SEAISI Newsletter, May 2020

Thailand to terminate non-alloy HRC safeguards

The World Trade Organization (WTO) released a decision byThailand’s safeguards committee on 8 May to proposeterminating safeguard measures on imports of non-alloy hotrolled coils following a sunset review, Kallanish notes.

The authority announced the measures could be terminated on 7June 2020, targeting products in thicknesses of 0.9-50mm andwidth of 600-3,048mm. The products involved have HS codesunder 7208.36.00.031, 7208.36.00.032, 7208.36.00.033,7208.36.00.090, 7208.37.00.041, 7208.37.00.042,7208.37.00.043, 7208.37.00.090, 7208.38.00.041,7208.38.00.042, 7208.38.00.043, 7208.38.00.090,7208.39.90.041, 7208.39.90.042, 7208.39.90.043,7208.39.90.090, 7208.51.00.090, 7208.52.00.090,7208.53.00.011, 7208.53.00.012, 7208.53.00.013,7208.53.00.090, 7208.54.90.011, 7208.54.90.012,7208.54.90.013, and 7208.54.90.090.

On 30 January 2014, Thailand initiated safeguards on importingnon-alloy HRC, and then extended these on 18 April 2017. On 9January 2020, Thailand initiated its sunset review. The committeefound that volumes had fallen since the measures were put inplace, and that no injury had been found to the domestic industry.

In 2019, Thailand imported a total of 1.68 million tonnes of non-alloy HRC, or -5.08% less year-on-year.

Kallanish, May 12, 2020

Hoa Phat output falls, but exports rise

Vietnamese steel major Hoa Phat Group has seen its billet andconstruction steel exports surge in April, while its productionhas been curtailed. The coronavirus has imposed restrictionson production, and has made exports more competitive than thelocked-down domestic market, Kallanish notes.

In April, Hoa Phat saw finished construction steel output droparound -30% month-on-month to 270,000 tonnes, it says. Thiswas a response to restrictions on construction sites to halt thespread of the coronavirus. It also saw a 16.9% year-on-yearincrease in construction steel exports as a result of weak domesticdemand, it notes.

The more dramatic response however was a sharp increase inbillet exports in April. These increased by around 50,000t to183,000t. Its billet sales have now totalled 530,000t over January-April.

Much of the increase in exports has been driven by demand fromChina. China imported 378,618t of semis from Vietnam in thefirst quarter, up from just over 9,000t a year earlier. Vietnamaccounted for more than 20% of Chinese semis import over theperiod, compared with 3.45% a year earlier.

Kallanish, May 6, 2020

Posco’s Vietnam subsidiary to sell rebar mill

Korean steelmaker Posco has publicly sought buyers for its rebarrolling mill in Vietnam due to the facility’s poor performance inthe past few years, Kallanish notes.

Italian technology provider Danieli Group supplied the mill toPosco’s Vietnam plant in 2015. The mill is able to produce 500,000tonnes/year of rebar in diameters of 10-51mm using 160x160mmbillet. The sale will go through public bidding and is expected tobe concluded by the end of this year.

Posco will continue investing in its Vietnam subsidiary but onlyfocusing on the production of steel sections. The subsidiary hasagreed to sell a 49% stake in the subsidiary to Japan’s YamatoKogyo Group, and it will be renamed Posco Yamato Vina. Theplant also operates a 1 million tonnes/year EAF and billet casters.In 2019, sales volumes of the Vietnam subsidiary were down -10.2% year-on-year to 460,000 tonnes and revenue fell by -18.1%to $460m. Operating profit remained negative, with losses of$41m compared to $22m in 2018 (see Kallanish passim).

Kallanish, May 12, 2020

Indian steelmakers face worker shortage, excess inventory: Ind-Ra

Indian steelmakers will face issues with manpower availabilityand excessive inventory as they bid to raise capacity utilisationfollowing India’s relaxation of the Covid-19 lockdown from thisweek, says India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra).

Although steel is classified as an essential good, logisticalconstraints may remain due the lack of fleet availability andlonger trip time.

Ind-Ra expects domestic steel demand to drop -12-15% on-yearin the fiscal year through March 2021 (FY21). Demand from theinfrastructure, construction and real estate sectors is likely tobe subdued in the first half of FY21, with the lockdown in the Junequarter and monsoon season in the September quarter.

“Furthermore, demand from the automobile, white goods andcapital goods sectors is likely to reduce, with consumers deferringdiscretionary spends in the near term,” the credit rating agencysays in a note sent to Kallanish. “As such, government spendingon infrastructure is likely to be the key driver for a gradualrecovery over 2HFY21.”

The agency expects an inventory build-up primarily of semi-finished steel with the downstream facilities of most producersbeing closed during the lockdown. Large producers have kepttheir blast furnaces operational at 35-50% capacity utilisation,due to the high cost of restarting the furnace once it is shut.

The inventory build-up will put pressure on steel prices postlockdown and the agency expects an on-year correction of INR3,000/tonne ($40) in average realisations over FY21. As of end-March 2020, hot rolled coil prices (Delhi 2.5-8mm, IS2062) were-3% lower while rebar prices were -9% lower than those at end-January 2020 when there were limited concerns over the spreadof Covid-19 in India.

V I E T N A M

I N D I A

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“Muted demand and oversupply is likely to create a loop leadingto supressed prices until either there is a substantial uplift indemand or a substantial volume goes out of the market,” Ind-Raobserves. “Government support in terms of having a close watchon imports from FTA countries has become critical.”

Kallanish, May 5, 2020

India’s steel industry resumes partial operations amid prolongedlockdown

India’s steel industry has begun a gradual resumption ofoperations despite no clear indications of when a nation widelockdown resulting from the coronavirus pandemic will be fullylifted.

The government has extended the lockdown further to May 17,which was supposed to expire on Sunday. It was extended asthere were concerns that the country might lose its gains in thefight against the coronavirus if the lockdown was not prolonged.

JSW Steel said Monday that it had resumed operations and was“gradually ramping up capacity.” On March 25 JSW, which hasaround 18 million mt/year of capacity, had curtailed domesticsteel production but gave no details.

S&P Global Platts had reported that JSW shut one blast furnaceat its Vijayanagar plant in Karnataka on March 25, and cutproduction rates in the other three to 50% on March 25 and 25-30% from March 26 onwards.

Elsewhere, effective May 2, Monnet Ispat & Energy restarted itsintegrated steel plant at Raigarh, Chhattisgarh, the steelmakersaid Sunday.

But its “Raipur, Chhattisgarh will continue to remain temporarilysuspended till further notice,” it said. Monnet Ispat, which has aproduction capacity of 1.2 million mt-1.3 million mt, was takenover by Aion Investments II and JSW Steel in August 2018.

Steel cablemaker Usha Martin said it resumed partial operationsof its plant at Ranchi in Jharkhand state on April 23 after it shutoperation as a result of the government order. The company hasa combined production capacity of 250,000 mt/year.

More recently, Usha Martin restared its plant at Hoshiarpur inPunjab state, on Thursday.

Goa Carbon, which shut its 125,000 mt/year plant at Paradip inOdisha on March 23, is expected to resume operations Thursday.The company makes calcined petroleum coke that are used ingraphite electrodes for electric arc furnaces and raising thecarbon content in steelmaking and ductile iron foundries.

Amid the lockdown, in March, India produced 8.04 million mt ofcrude steel, 20.0% less year on year and down 15.9% fromFebruary, data from the Joint Plant Committee showed, whileMarch finished steel output fell 23.7% year on year to 7.09 millionmt which was also 14.5% lower from the month before.

Steel demand is expected to be weak in April as carmakers postedweak sales data.

For instance, Maruti Suzuki India reported zero sales in thedomestic market for April as all its plants were shut due to thelockdown, while Bajaj Auto posted April sales of 37,878 units, a91% plunge year on year.

S&P Global Platts, May 5, 2020

India: Amid coronavirus lockdown, steel demand pick-up off to aslow start

Demand for domestic steel seems to be reviving in some way,with end users taking the first steps towards restartingoperations, but a return to normalcy might still be a long way off.

In the past couple of days, a number of automakers, includingMaruti Suzuki, Hero MotoCorp, Mercedes Benz India, EicherMotors, TVS Motor, and Isuzu Motors India, have announcedthey have got clearance from the government to resumeoperations. Construction activities, too, have resumed, albeit ina staggered manner. In some pockets there is also demand foryellow goods. No doubt, between Lockdown 1.0 and 3.0, therehas been an improvement in demand, but steel companies viewthis as too little.

Typically, construction accounts for 60-62 per cent of steel end-use and automobile 15-16 per cent. The demand that is comingback is mostly from auto components, fabricators and somegovernment projects, say steel producers. But they point out thatit’s not just a restart of activity at end-user level that is required;the value chain, which has completely collapsed, needs to bereconstructed for a significant pick-up in demand.

ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India (AM/NS) has restarted many ofits production units, including COREX, Conarc, hot strip mill,compact strip mill to ramp up production. Production at blastfurnace, too, has been ramped up in line with demand.

But a further increase in production is riddled with challenges. Aspokesperson for AM/NS India cited normalising supply chainand production ramp-up at customer end as major challenges.

Officials at Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) said things werestarting to move. Customer meets were being held. But most ofthe demand currently was from government segments.“Availability of labour remains a challenge,” said an official.

Jindal Steel & Power Ltd (JSPL) Managing Director V R Sharmapointed out that steel markets were still closed. “The MSMEsneed to be allowed to function without permission.”

With labour and supply chain pangs being felt across industriesafter more than a month and a half of the lockdown, the chorusfor easing lockdown measures is getting louder.

According to Sharma the current phase of lockdown should belifted before May 17 and a Lockdown 4.0 would definitely bedisastrous. “Consumption needs to pick up,” he said.

The wheels of the economy need to move, said another producerwho did not wish to be named. “The restart is haphazard. At leaste-commerce of non-essentials should be allowed. That will createsome demand,” he added.

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What was impeding the restart process was the level of clearance,the producer explained. The first layer is the guidelines from theMinistry of Home Affairs (MHA), followed by state-level tweaksand finally local-level clearances.

Most analysts have forecast a high single-digit to double-digitcontraction in demand for steel this year. The Indian SteelAssociation (ISA) forecast a demand contraction of 7.7 per centlast month on account of lockdown measures.

However, till domestic demand makes a significant recovery,companies have turned to exports. JSPL has exported around 80per cent of its output. Most other companies too have exportedmore than 60 per cent in April and May.

Business Standard, May 11, 2020

China’s Baowu dethrones long-reigning steel king ArcelorMittal

Although China is the world’s leading steel producer, no singleChinese steelmaker has made it to the top spot, until now.

China Baowu Steel Group surpassed ArcelorMittal in theproduction of crude steel in 2019, according to publicly availabledata, ending the reign the European heavyweight has held since2001. Putting Baowu over the top was its takeover last Septemberof China’s Magang (Group) Holding, which was then the country’sninth-ranked steel supplier.

The outcome underscores the dominance China wields in theglobal steel industry. At the same time, the country has yet to reinin excess capacity in any meaningful way, setting the stage forsteel prices to fall off a cliff.

Baowu, the parent of Baoshan Iron & Steel, has made clear itsintentions to shake up the industrial landscape. “We aim tobecome a global leader in the steel market,” in technology andprofitability, said Chairman Chen Derong after the companybecame the world’s largest steelmaker.

At the moment, Baowu mostly sells steel domestically. But thecompany has indicated that it will actively compete withinternational rivals. Back in February of last year, Chen toldemployees that overseas operations will be essential to securingthe company’s future.

Baowu was born in 2016 from the merger of Baosteel Group andWuhan Iron & Steel Group, then China’s fifth- and 11th-largeststeelmakers, respectively. The consolidation came about as Chinaweathered international criticism for churning out too much steel.

The ostensible purpose for creating Baowu was to slim downproduction capacity. But pressure from the government drovethe company to continue adding scale.

China has reduced the number of major steelmakers from 130 in2010 to about 100 now. The government maintains that it slashedexcess capacity by 150 million tons through 2018, equal to about10% of the total.

At the same time, merged entities are installing high-capacityblast furnaces under the guise of updating equipment.

Japanese steelmakers in particular wonder if China’s ultimatepurpose is to create a supersize steel supplier capable of beatinginternational rivals. Baowu is Exhibit A of those concerns.

“If the scale grows larger through reorganization, the competitiveadvantage held overseas by the Chinese will increase further,”said Nippon Steel President Eiji Hashimoto.

The cost of raw materials, such as iron ore, accounts for 70% ofthe price of steel. Procuring raw material by scale, then mass-producing the final product at giant steel mills provides avaluable competitive edge.

Chinese steelmakers plan to establish more than 50 million tonsworth of additional capacity in Southeast Asia alone, accordingto the Japan Iron and Steel Federation. The scale is on a par withthe entire domestic capacity of the Nippon Steel group, and theexpansion is expected to continue ramping up.

Baowu churned out 95.22 million tons of crude steel last year,up 41% from 2018. ArcelorMittal’s output shrank 7% to 89.8million tons due to soft demand from the automobile industry, aresult of the stagnant economies in Asia and Europe.

With the impact of the coronavirus pandemic setting in, themismatch between Chinese steelmakers and their global rivalsis being felt in the international market.

Steelmakers around the world are cutting production in responseto disruptions in auto manufacturing. In Japan, Nippon Steeldecided to suspend operations at three blast furnaces. JFE Steelwill also idle some blast furnaces. Furnaces in the U.S. and Europeare suspending operations as well.

In China, steel production in March dipped just 2% to 78.98million tons, according to the World Steel Association. It appearsauthorities are prioritizing job security over adjusting the supply-demand balance.

In fact, blast furnace utilization at Baowu and other majorChinese steelmakers has essentially returned to normal levelsthis month, said the Japan Iron and Steel Federation.

Chinese producers keep making steel despite the drop-off ininternal demand. That has produced an unnatural marketsituation in which the price of raw materials has climbed but theprice of finished steel has come down.

Iron ore hovered at $90 a ton in March, up from below $80 inFebruary. Meanwhile, hot-rolled coils fetched between $430 and$440 a ton in mid-April, down 14% from a month earlier.

China’s steel inventories are bursting at the seams. Members ofthe China Iron and Steel Association logged an all-time high of21.4 million tons on March 10. If those stockpiles end up beingexported cheaply, a less-stable steel market would result.

The global steel industry has attempted to address theovercapacity by holding an international forum since 2016. ButChina forced the forum’s dissolution last year, citingdisagreements.

C H I N A

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SEAISI Newsletter, May 2020 13

Multiple nations seek to maintain the international dialogue onexcess steel production, even with the absence of Beijing.

“I prefer the continuation of the multilateral framework towardthe resolution of surplus capacity,” said Hiroshi Kajiyama,Japan’s minister of economy, trade and industry.

But without China’s participation, there is little prospect ofattaining that goal. With Chinese steelmakers accounting for sixof the globe’s top 10 producers in 2018, according to the WorldSteel Association, China holds outsize leverage.

“The risk that prices will fluctuate in a fashion disconnectedfrom market principles will continually grow as Chineseenterprises scale up,” said a source at a major Japanesesteelmaker.

Chinese enterprises are able to ship products without regard toprofitability due to generous government support, as well asdifferences in tax and accounting systems. Such dynamics havedriven rivals in the liquid crystal display and solar panelindustries into a corner. The same scenario is playing out forglobal steelmakers, too.

Nikkei Asian Review, April 29, 2020

China extends anti-dumping duties on U.S., EU steel tubes andpipes for five years

China said on Saturday it would extend anti-dumping duties oncertain alloy steel seamless tubes and pipes from the UnitedStates and European Union for five years starting May 10.

The decision is part of a final review of anti-dumping duties forthe products that had been in place from 2014 to May 2019. LastJune, it hiked the tariffs by as much as ten times while the reviewwas underway and those levels of duties now remain in place.

Duties of 101.0% to 147.8% have been imposed on U.S companiesincluding Wyman-Gordon Forgings while European firms suchas Vallourec Deutschland GmbH and Vallourec Tubes France willbe subject to duties of 57.9% to 60.8%, the Commerce Ministrysaid on its website.

Kallanish, May 12, 2020

Daily crude steel output at CISA key mills up 2% in early May

Crude steel output across major mills in China averaged 2.05million mt per day in the first 10 days of May, up 1.97% from thelevel seen in the last 10 days of April and 5.44% higher than theaverage level for the month of April, according to data from theChina Iron and Steel Association (CISA) released on Tuesday.

Compared to April 21-30, average daily production of pig ironacross those CISA key mills in May 11-10 rose 0.58% to 1.85million mt, while that of steel products fell 6.31% 1.91 millionmt.

On a yearly basis, average daily crude steel output across thosemills was 0.28% higher.

As of May 10, inventories of steel products across those millsstood at 14.66 million mt, down 66,400 mt, or 0.45%, from theend of April but 5.13 million mt, or 53.81% higher than thebeginning of the year.

Shanghai Metals Market, May 13, 2020

Covid-19 pandemic hits US steel demand and prices

US flat product steel prices are on the decline. Although the USsteel sector has been regarded as an “essential industry” duringthe coronavirus pandemic, demand has deteriorated during thepast few weeks.

Flat products affected by coronavirus restrictionsSteel buyers are obtaining significant discounts, from domesticsuppliers, who are keen to secure orders. Material can be obtainedon very short delivery lead times. Stockholders are attempting toreduce their inventories, amid the current highly uncertain marketconditions.

Sales tonnages to end-users are declining, as manufacturingoutput is curtailed, due to the Covid-19 pandemic sweepingacross the United States. Coil and sheet requirements from thecarmakers and associated parts suppliers are particularlyreduced. Investors are limiting capital injections into newprojects.

Falling demand is leading to substantial cuts in production bythe domestic mills. Capacity utilisation rates have dropped below60 percent – the lowest levels recorded since the financial crashof 2008/9.

US market participants note that the recovery in domestic demandand steel prices will be directly related to how each state will liftexisting restrictions and how companies will adopt socialdistancing, at an operational level.

Price reductions anticipated for long products

Supply of long products is more than sufficient to meet domesticdemand, at present. Customers are cautious in their purchasingdecisions, due to uncertainty surrounding future economicconditions. Although consumption by the construction sector isslowing, it remains one the better performing end-user sectorsin the country.

Imports are unattractive as buyers fear that domestic sellingfigures will fall below those of the foreign material, by the time itarrives in port. Domestic long product prices are expected tofall, in the near term, following the April reduction in mill scrapcosts.

MEPS, May 4, 2020

Excess steel capacity an ‘enormous’ issue in coronavirus recovery:AISI

With Chinese steel production and inventory data pointing tohigh volumes amid the global coronavirus pandemic, it is goingto continue to put pressure on global steel markets, American

W O R L D

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14 SEAISI Newsletter, May 2020

Iron and Steel Institute CEO Thomas Gibson said in an interviewwith S&P Global Platts this week.

“I do think overcapacity is going to be an enormous issue comingout of this crisis,” Gibson said.

While China was the first country to see the effects of thepandemic in January, its first-quarter 2020 crude steel productionrose 1.2% year on year to 234.45 million mt, according to datareleased by the country’s National Bureau of Statistics April 17.The increase in steel production combined with battered end-user demand took China’s finished and semi-finished steelinventories to around 100 million mt by the end of March, threetimes as high as at the end of March 2019, Platts analysis show.

China’s steel inventories declined 2.96% in April, but not as fastas most market participants expected, indicating end-userdemand recovery has not been strong enough to absorb surplussteel supply, according to China Iron & Steel Association datareleased April 24.

In response to the impact of the pandemic, US domestic millshave aggressively cut production in recent weeks, with millcapacity utilization falling to 55.8% by the week that ended April25 from 81.6% in the week that ended March 7, according to AISIdata. European steel production has also been cut by roughly50% in recent weeks.

While international meetings have been heavily curtailed in thewake of the virus — including March’s meeting of the Organisationfor Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) — globalefforts to combat excess steel capacity are ongoing, Gibson said.

The OECD’s global forum on steel excess capacity launched awebsite last week in an effort to keep attention focused on theissue, Gibson said.

“The efforts to deal multilaterally with global overcapacity havenever really abated, the crisis has just made it more difficult tomeet in person,” he said.

With US mill utilization rates falling apace, the Section 232 tariffson US steel imports introduced in March 2018 remain a vitalcomponent to recovery and should remain in place, Gibson said.With the crisis impacting markets around the globe, it may alsolead to an uptick in trade measures in other countries to limitthe adverse effects of imports, he said.

“I think other countries have been and will continue to look totheir own trade remedies to make sure they don’t become thedumping ground for this glut of steel inventory,” Gibson said.

Platts, May 4, 2020

US launches Section 232 investigation into transformercomponents

The US Department of Commerce on Monday said it will initiatea Section 232 investigation to determine whether electricaltransformer components are being imported in the US in suchquantities or under such circumstances that is a threat to nationalsecurity.

US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross on Monday said theinvestigation will focus on laminations for stacked cores forincorporation into transformers, stacked and wound cores forincorporation into transformers, electrical transformers, andtransformer regulators.

The decision to launch an investigation under Section 232 of theTrade Expansion Act of 1962 follows inquiries and requests frommultiple members of Congress as well as industry stakeholders,Commerce said. Commerce previously used Section 232 in March2018 when it applied import tariffs of 25% and 10% on steel andaluminum, respectively.

As required by law, Ross will send a letter to Secretary of DefenseMark Esper informing him of the investigation, Commerce said.

“Laminations and cores made of grain-oriented electrical steel[GOES] are critical transformer components,” Commerce said inits announcement. “Electrical steel is necessary for powerdistribution transformers for all types of energy – including solar,nuclear, wind, coal, and natural gas – across the country. Anassured domestic supply of these products enables the UnitedStates to respond to large power disruptions affecting civilianpopulations, critical infrastructure, and US defense industrialproduction capabilities.”

Lourenco Goncalves, CEO of Cleveland-Cliffs, which purchasedthe US’ last grain oriented-electrical steel producer – AK Steel –inmid-March, highlighted the need for action to be taken to addressGOES imports in front of lawmakers during the CongressionalSteel Caucus’ annual hearing March 5.

“AK Steel is the last producer of grain oriented-electrical steel inthe US,” he said. “It means we are the last man standing betweenthis country’s ability to produce transformers for the electricgrid and having to import everything...232 took care of the dumpedelectrical steel from China, South Korea and Japan, but badplayers always find a way to circumvent.”

Without help in closing existing loopholes, it’s likely AK Steel’sfacilities in Butler, Pennsylvania, and Zanesville, Ohio, willremain unprofitable and face idling, he said at the time.

“We are confident that this self-initiated investigation willreinforce the critical nature of ensuring a reliable domesticsupply of GOES to support electric power distribution, and willaddress the circumvention of national security tariffs involvingtransformer laminations and cores of GOES,” Goncalves said ina statement Monday.

S&P Global Platts, May 5, 2020

US proposes dropping some duties on large-diameter pipe steel

The US Department of Commerce has proposed a partialrevocation of antidumping duty orders on imports of large-diameter welded pipe steel from Greece and India, finding thatcertain products are not made in the US at a sufficient capacity,according to a preliminary notice published in the FederalRegister Tuesday.

During Commerce’s changed circumstance review of the orders,domestic producers issued a statement saying they do not

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SEAISI Newsletter, May 2020 15

currently produce the particular large-diameter welded pipeproducts subject to the review.

Products proposed to be excluded from the orders include GradeX60, X65, or X70, 18-inch to 24-inch outside diameter, and wallthickness of 0.688-inch to 0.750-inch wall thickness.

“The domestic producers’ statement that the investment neededfor the industry to produce these products far exceeds thepotential benefit of such an investment, given that the US marketfor deep offshore projects, the primary market for the largediameter welded pipe product groups at issue, is relatively small,”Commerce said.

Greek welded pipe producer Corinth requested the changedcircumstance review.

Imports of large-diameter welded pipe from Greece were assigneda final antidumping rate of 9.96% in February 2019, while importsof these products from India were assigned a final AD rate of50.55% in November 2018.

S&P Global Platts, May 6, 2020

How will coronavirus pandemic affect global steel production in2020 & 2021?

Early indications suggested that 2020 would be a year of modesteconomic recovery. Activity had been trending downwards sincethe zenith reached in the spring of 2018. Both governments andbusinesses had hoped that the start of the new decade wouldcoincide with an upturn in economic growth. However, thecoronavirus pandemic and subsequent lockdown measures havethwarted any such possibilities.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently downgraded itseconomic growth projections. Global GDP is forecast to fall by 3percent, in 2020. The reduction anticipated for the advancedeconomies is more substantial, at 6.1 percent.

The euro area is expected to be among the weakest performers,with a decline of 7.5 percent predicted. Figures of this magnitudeare unprecedented. They are also unsurprising given the currentcircumstances, with some market sectors being brought to acomplete standstill.

Largest impact in EuropeIn Europe, the proliferation of Covid-19 and the substantialeconomic contraction is mirrored in the region’s steel outputstatistics. EU crude steel production decreased by 10 percent,year-on-year, in the first quarter of 2020. A reduction of almost30 percent is predicted, in the April/June trimester. Output inthis period is forecast at just over 30 million tonnes. This three-month total would be below the figure recorded in the first quarterof 2009 – the low point of the Great Recession.

North America is behind Europe in the timeline of the impact ofthe coronavirus outbreak. While the EU recorded a double-digitpercentage reduction, North American crude steel output declinedby only 3.6 percent, in the January/March period. Nonetheless,MEPS predicts a decrease of more than 20 percent, year-on-year,in the second quarter of 2020.

Steel production remained high, in China, during the early monthsof this year. Output increased by 1.3 percent in the first quarter,compared with the corresponding period in 2019. The annualoutturn of almost 1 billion tonnes is forecast to decrease onlyslightly, in 2020, from the figure recorded in the previous year.Growth in steel exports will be difficult to achieve. Consequently,robust domestic demand will be required to support Chinesesteel production, in the medium term.

The prevalence of infections by the coronavirus and subsequentlockdown measures have varied in countries across East andSouth Asia. Nonetheless, local steel demand has beensubstantially negatively affected. Furthermore, exports of steeland steel-intensive goods are reducing. Consequently, output isbeing cut in the major steelmaking nations of Japan, South Korea,Taiwan and India.

MEPS forecasts that global crude steel production will fall to 1.8billion tonnes, in 2020. This equates to a reduction of 75 milliontonnes, compared with the figure recorded in the previous year.

Two-thirds of this lost output should be recovered next year, ifthe virus is contained and no further widespread lockdowns areimplemented. The predicted outturn of 1.85 billion tonnes, in2021, is also dependent on the effectiveness of fiscal andmonetary policies to support stricken economies and mitigate aprolonged downturn.

Recovery on the horizon?A recovery in worldwide steel production depends, primarily, onan upturn in market demand. The authorities in many countriesare starting to gradually ease their lockdown restrictions.

The potential exists for steel-intensive industries to reboundfaster, at least initially, compared with a number of tertiarysectors, such as hospitality and retail. Automation in modernmanufacturing aids the implementation of safety measures, suchas social distancing, which will be beneficial. The pace of theanticipated upturn in demand is expected to vary across steel-consuming sectors.

A slow improvement is anticipated for manufacturers ofmachinery and equipment. The resumption of production in thatsector is taking place but with a low rate of capacity utilisation.Investment levels, worldwide, are expected to remain weak, inthe near future.

Long-term opportunities have arisen to reassess the structure ofexisting supply chains. This could result in less reliance onimports from third countries. A more localised network of partssuppliers has the potential to offer greater certainty, especiallyduring periods of crisis.

Although staff shortages were noted, many projects in theconstruction industry continued during the lockdown.Governments may look to that sector as a means of stimulatingeconomic recovery. Nonetheless, public debt concerns remain.Furthermore, observers question the need for certaininfrastructure schemes, if the “new normal” involves changes toworking habits and travel requirements.

Transportation industry woes

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16 SEAISI Newsletter, May 2020

Automotive supply chains were severely disrupted, in recentmonths. Numerous Western carmakers announced productioncuts, due to component shortages, prior to the implementationof lockdowns. Interruptions to the supply of parts are expectedto persist, in the short term.

Sales of passenger vehicles are forecast to be curtailed bydeteriorating consumer confidence, rising unemployment anddeclining incomes. Weak business conditions are predicted torestrict investment and fleet replenishment schemes.Consequently, adverse effects on demand for commercialvehicles are anticipated.

The surplus supply of oil has resulted in crude prices falling torecord lows. Furthermore, global seaborne trade of goods isreducing. These factors are expected to adversely affect ordersreceived by the shipbuilding industry, in the medium term.

Perhaps the largest impact on the transportation sector, fromthe coronavirus, is being witnessed in the aviation industry,which faces an existential crisis. Many observers expectfundamental changes to be undertaken to ensure the sector’ssurvival.

It is clear that many steel-consuming sectors face a plethora ofhurdles on the road to recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.Those businesses and governments hoping for better times aheadwill have to rely on their own ingenuity to overcome theunparalleled challenges that the world now faces.

MEPS, May 14, 2020

China’s Steel Export Tax Rebate vs its Steel Export to ASEAN-6

According to worldsteel, The Ministry of Finance increased theexport tax (VAT) rebate on some steel products, with effect from20 March 2020. The adjustment of the tax rebate affects a totalof 122 HS codes, including stainless steel, coated steel, highalloy steel, seamless pipes, welded pipes and some steel-containing goods, e.g. cast steels and springs for motor vehiclesand trains. The tax rebate was raised to 13% from 9-10%. Theproducts covered are not the major export items, for historicalstatistics. China’s most common exported items were standardgrades of HRC, CRC, plates and long products and the tax rebate

remains zero.

Having looked at what happened in the past, China has becomea net exporter for steel since 2005. The share of steel export to itscrude steel output boosted to a significantly high level in 2007,when the government announced a 15% export duty on the exportof semis in June 2007 and the duty was further raised to 25% inJanuary 2008. As a result, China’s export of semis to ASEAN-6

virtually ceased since 2008.

H E A D L I N E S

Share of China’s steel export to ASEAN-6 countries continued toincrease to above 15% since 2002 although total steel export inChina was still low. Share of China’s steel export to the regionremained significant to above 20% in 2012 and continued toincrease over years. It was widely reported that the Chinese steelmills inserted a miniscule amount of boron into their steel123,high enough just to technically qualify the product as alloy steel.Doing so will allow the mills to get VAT rebates, 9-13% for barsand wire rods as an example, for export purposes. Such steel isused in the ASEAN construction sector which do not need alloysteel. A key point to note is the domestic Chinese constructionprojects DO NOT use boron alloyed steel, until today.

After much worldwide protest, the Chinese government removedVAT rebates of 9-13% on the boron-added steel products,including 7225.4091 of hot rolled plate and sheet, 7226.9191 ofhot rolled narrow strip, 7227.9010 of wire rod and 7228.3010 ofbar, with effect from 1 January 20154.

However, it appeared that the share of China’s steel exportcontinued to increase and reach as high as the share of 35% in2016. ASEAN Iron and Steel Council found that China’s export ofproducts under HS codes 7228.3090 and 7225.4099 increasedsignificantly since 2016 while export of products under HS codes7228.3010 and 7225.4091, which fall under the boron added

steel, has dipped to nearly zero during the same period.

So, what happened? This time, there was a switch from usingboron to chromium5 and these Chinese suppliers were usinganother HS Code to export their carbon steel, in the guise of alloysteel to avail of VAT rebates. Unlike boron alloyed steel, whichsaw a closure in the loophole, chromium alloy steel exportshave not been affected as the loophole remains.

Fortunately for the Global Steel Industry, the Chinese economyimproved since then. Furthermore, the Chinese Government alsostarted a Supply Reform to remove up to 150 million tonnes of

China becomes a net steel exporter after 2005

Source: World Steel Association, China’s customs

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

1995199719992001200320052007200920112013201520172019

China’s Steel TradeFinished steel import

Finished steel export

Net import

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

China’s share of export to output

Finished steel export

Share of export to output

Unit: million tonnes

1

China’s steel export to ASEAN has increased significantly

Source: China’s customs

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

China’s finished steel export to ASEAN, million tonnes

China's total finished steel export

RS

LS

2

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SEAISI Newsletter, May 2020 17

1 Australian Financial Review (29 Oct 2014), Boron-infused steel

from China draws scrutiny,

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/boron-infused-steel-from-

china-draws-scrutiny-20141029-11de2c

2 South China Morning Post (30 Oct 2014), China faces friction

over steel exports,

https://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/1627870/

china-faces-friction-over-steel-exports

3 Market Realist (31 Dec 2014 updated 5 Jan 2015), Key Factors

Driving Chinese Steel Exports

https://marketrealist.com/2014/12/key-factors-driving-chinese-

steel-exports/

4 South China Morning Post (12 Jan 2015), Global steel prices to

gain from China’s scrapping of export tax rebate,

https://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/1678491/

steel-prices-gain-chinas-scrapping-export-tax-rebate

5 Reuters (25 July 2018), Factbox - Taxing issue: China’s

controversial steel rebate policy,

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-trade-china-steel-factbox/

factbox-taxing-issue-chinas-controversial-steel-rebate-policy-

idUKKBN1KF0DYSEAISI, May, 2020

domestic steel capacity. With these, the China’s steel export beganto decline from 2017.

China’s steel export to the world dropped 31% y-o-y to 75 milliontonnes in 2017 while its export volume to ASEAN-6 dipped evenmore, at 43% y-o-y, to 21 million tonnes. China’s export to theworld continued to dip to 62 million tonnes in 2019. Finishedsteel export from China to ASEAN-6 registered 18.6 million tonnesin the same year. Share of China’s finished steel export to ASEAN-6 remained around 30% since 2017.

The finished steel export from China to ASEAN-6 dropped 14% y-o-y to 4.2 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2020. Export ofsection, bar and wire rod to ASEAN-6 continued to decline by 1%,36% and 29% to 282,619 tonnes, 211,857 tonnes and 486,864tonnes, respectively.

China’s export of most of flat products to ASEAN-6 dropped bydouble digits in the first quarter of 2020. Export of hot rolledplates, hot rolled coil and cold rolled coil dropped by 29% y-o-y35% y-o-y and 24% y-o-y to dropped to 408,625 tonnes, 529,205tonnes and 251,901 tonnes, respectively in the same period.

Note that most of the above-mentioned products, such as sections,bars, wire rod, plates, hot rolled coils and cold rolled coils areactually “like” products, that are already produced in ASEAN.China’s export of coated sheet, which is in demand in ASEAN,continued to increase. The volume in the first quarter of 2020registered 1.47 million tonnes, an increase of 14% y-o-y. Seamlesspipes export from China to ASEAN-6 dropped 2% y-o-y to 147,478tonnes while export of welded pipes increased slightly, by 1% y-o-y to 163,130 tonnes in the same period.

In conclusion, the historical trends of Chinese steel mill exportsreveal a few worrying trends and threats to the ASEAN SteelIndustry:

a. Loopholes in the Chinese Government system allows Chinese

steel mills and exporters to circumvent rules and regulations

to avail of tax rebates that makes them very competitive in

the global market.

b. The volume of steel exports is so large that it could decimate

any local steel industry in ASEAN and elsewhere, threatening

local employment, industries and economic stability.

c. Neighbouring countries such as ASEAN and others, have been

dumping grounds for many Chinese steel products for many

years, given the region’s proximity to mainland China.

With the increasing crude steel production and rising inventoryin China amidst sharp falls in global demand for steel duringthis COVID-19 pandemic, the question now is, where will all thesteel go … ?

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