south and east mediterranean countries...agro meteorological bulletin 1, 2007.south and east...

Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC) Agriculture & Fisheries Unit

MARS – FOOD Action Bulletin № 1, 2007

CROP MONITORING for FOOD SECURITY

South and East Mediterranean Countries

Situation at the End of January 2007 Agro-meteorological overview for winter crops

Agro meteorological Bulletin №1, 2007. South and East Mediterranean Countries

2

Introduction The present Bulletin is dedicated to the analysis of the agro-meteorological situation in the non-European countries of the Mediterranean basin during the period from the beginning of December 2006 to the end of January 2007. This is a period for the first stages of winter crops development in most countries of the region. Practically in all countries, wheat and barley are the main winter crops. Additionally, sugar beets are cultivated in winter in Israel, as well as potatoes in Morocco. The main part of winter crops is cultivated in rain-fed conditions. In Israel, Libya and Syria about 20-30% of winter cereal crops and in Egypt and Saudi Arabia practically all crops are irrigated. The present Bulletin is devoted to the analysis of the meteorological conditions only for winter wheat. The monitoring of the agro-meteorological situation is based on the analysis of the following dekadal data: minimal, maximal and average air temperature, sums of precipitation and global radiation, dekadal values of the climatic water balance, dekadal maps of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Indexes (NDVI), dekadal maps of the Dry Matter Production. Meteorological data are derived from the outputs of the numerical meteorological model from ECMWF (UK), and were prepared for analysis by METEOCONSULT (NL). SPOT-VEGETATION data were used as a basis for calculation of the remote sensing indicators of crop growth. Data were preprocessed by VITO (BE). After that, dekadal maximal NDVI values were weighted for pixels within which winter crops are cultivated, and then – were weighted again at country level. Thus, weighted NDVI values were used as an indicator of crop status. Dry Matter Production maps were calculated by VITO based on SPOT-VEGETATION data and information about global radiation, applying the Monteith approach. The Bulletin has the following structure. The first pages contain the main results of the analysis. The following pages are dedicated to the analysis of separate indicators of the crop growth during the period of analysis. The background information is given in the following table (statistical data for the year 2006 is not available yet). This is a Bulletin prepared by the MARS-FOOD action, Agriculture & Fisheries Unit, IPSC, Joint Research Centre, European Commission. Acknowledgements. The following organizations were involved in data supply: VITO (BE), METEOCONSULT (NL), ECMWF (UK). Disclaimer. The geographical borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. These boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official EC position. Legal Notice. Neither the EC nor any person acting on behalf of the commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of the following information. Contact: Jacques Delincé, Head of the Agriculture and Fisheries Unit, fax: +39-0332-789029 Olivier Leo, MARS-FOOD Action leader, [email protected] Igor Savin, Bulletin author, [email protected]

Production and Yield of Wheat in 2005 (FAOSTAT data, last accessed 01.02.2006)

Country Production, 1000 tons

Yield, t/ha

Algeria 2600 1,4 Egypt 8141 6,5 Israel 190 2,5 Jordan 33 1,4 Lebanon 120 2,6 Libya 125 0,8 Morocco 3043 1,0 Palestine Auth. 50 2,3 Saudi Arabia 2400 5,2 Syria 4669 2,5 Tunisia 1360 1,6 Green color indicates figures, which are higher than normal and red color indicates figures, which are lower than normal.


3

Country by Country

Algeria The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, but slightly worse than in the previous season. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was close to the previous year.

Egypt The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 and the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 were close to the previous year.

Israel The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, but slightly worse than in the previous season. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was slightly worse than in the previous season.

Jordan The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, and slightly better

than in the previous season. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was close to the previous season.

Lebanon The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, but slightly worse than in the previous season. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was close to the previous season.

Libya The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were close to the previous year. However, remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was better than in the previous year.

Morocco The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were worse than in the previous year. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was worse than in the previous year.

Palestine Auth. The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, and close to the previous season. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was close to the previous season.

Saudi Arabia The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were close to the previous year. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was close to the previous year.

Syria The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, but slightly worse than in the previous season. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was close to the previous season.

Tunisia The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, but worse than in the previous year. However, the remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was slightly better than in the previous year.

The situation is detailed in the following pages

Highlights Meteorological conditions during December 2006 -January 2007 were favorable for winter crops and, in general, close to the previous season in all countries, excepting Morocco and some regions of Algeria, where the situation was worse. The wheat yield 2007 is likely to be better or close to normal in all countries of the region. Only in Morocco the yield is likely to by lower than normal.


4

Results of the analysis

Comparing with previous season Country Meteorological

conditions during October-January

Crop status at the end of

January 2007

Wheat Yield 2007

expectation, (t/ha)

Algeria - = 1.0-1.4 Egypt = = 6.1-6.3 Israel - - 1.9-2.4 Jordan + = 1.2-1.4 Lebanon = = 2.3-2.7 Libya = + 0.7-0.9 Morocco - - 0.7-1.2 Palestine Auth. = = 2.4-3.1 Saudi Arabia = = - Syria = = 2.5-3.1 Tunisia = + 1.8-2.2

Mediterranean Sea Syria

S. Arabia

Jordan

Israel

Lebanon

Egypt Libya

Tunisia

Algeria Morocco

Palestine Auth.

Extreme cold air temperature was not observed over cropping areas of the countries of the region. The moisture regime during December-January was better as compared with the previous year in Jordan. It was worse in Maghreb countries and Syria, and it was close to the previous year in other countries (see the map below). In general, the meteorological conditions during December 2006 – January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development in the main cropping areas of the region. The amount of precipitation was unfavorable for rain-fed winter crops only in Saudi Arabia, and in Morocco. The meteorological conditions for the whole current season (October-January) were worse than in previous season in Algeria, Israel, and Morocco, and were better in Jordan. The analysis of crop growth indicators shows that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 seems to be worse than in previous year in Israel, and Morocco, seems to be better in Libya, and Tunisia, and close to the previous year in other countries of the region. A summary of the analysis of meteorological conditions for winter cereals is given in the Table. The last column of the table represents the winter wheat yield 2007 expectation (green figures indicates higher, red – lower, and black – close to normal values). These figures were obtained by the analysis of all crop growth indicators, mentioned in the Bulletin (see last page). The yield expectation values are only indicative.

Favorability of meteorological conditions for winter crop during December 2006-January 2007 (color on the map shows favorability and main limitations (see legend on the left)) Comparison with the conditions of the previous season (hatchings show units, where: br – better radiation regime; bm – better moisture regime; wr – worse radiation regime; wm – worse moisture regime; nodif – conditions are close to the previous year) (grey boundaries show units with croplands)


5

Global Radiation and Air Temperature Difference in Global Radiation Sum (kJ/m2) between current and previous seasons (December-January). Cross hatching shows regions, where this difference was higher than 10%, and vertical hatching –than 5%. (grey boundaries show units with croplands)

extreme air temperature

Global radiation (October-January)

Comparing with previous season difference in %

Algeria +3 +12 Egypt -2 +1 Israel +3 +9 Jordan -1 +3 Lebanon +4+10 Libya +1 +3 Morocco +7 +14 Palestine Auth. +2 +3 Saudi Arabia +1 +4 Syria +7+10 Tunisia +5 +9

Syria

S. Arabia

Jordan Israel

Lebanon

Egypt Libya

Algeria Morocco Palestine Auth.

The amount of radiation was close to optimal for winter crops in all countries of the region. The cumulated radiation during December-January (see the map below) was higher or close to the previous year in most countries of the region. The amount of radiation received by crops from the beginning of current season is higher than in previous season in the most countries of the region (see the table). Average daily temperature was near +5+100C practically everywhere. Tmin was below 00C (-1-20C) in some dekads during December-January only in Morocco, Algeria, Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan. Tmax was not extreme during the period under analysis. The air temperature in general was higher than in the previous season in Maghreb countries, and it was lower in Jordan, eastern Syria, and Lebanon.

Tunisia

Mediterranean Sea

Maximal and Minimal Air TemperatureAlgeria

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Sep1 Oct1 Nov1 Dec1 Jan1 Feb1 Mar1 Apr1 May1 Jun1 Jul1 Aug1

dekad

degr

ee C

tmax 2005/2006 tmax 2006/2007 tmin 2005/2006 tmin 2006/2007


6

Precipitation Sum Difference in Precipitation Sum (mm) between current and previous seasons (December-January). Cross hatching shows regions with amount of precipitation more than 120 mm during the period December-January, vertical hatching – with 60-120 mm of precipitation . (grey boundaries show units with croplands). - “heavy” rains (more than 100 mm of precipitation per dekad)

Precipitation for rain-fed winter crops

(October-January)

Comparing with previous season

Algeria - Egypt = Israel - Jordan + Lebanon = Libya = Morocco - Palestine Auth. = Saudi Arabia = Syria = Tunisia =

Mediterranean Sea

Libya

Precipitation was scarce during December-January in many countries of the region. Main part of precipitation took place in form of rain, but little part of precipitation in mountainous Morocco and eastern Syria was in form of snow. Heavy rains took place during December-January only in near cost zone of central Algeria. In general, the amount of precipitation during December-January was slightly higher than normal in western Algeria, lower than normal in Morocco, and eastern Syria and close to normal in other countries. Simultaneously the amount of precipitation was higher comparing with the previous year in eastern Libya, and it was lower in Tunisia, Algeria, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, and Morocco (see the map below). The amount of precipitation for the whole current vegetative season (October-January) is higher than normal in Tunisia, Jordan, and eastern Syria, and lower – in Morocco, Algeria, Israel, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Less precipitation comparing with the previous year was observed in Algeria, Israel, and Morocco, and more – in Jordan (see the table).

Morocco Algeria

Tunisia

Egypt S. Arabia

Syria

Jordan

Lebanon

Israel Palestine Auth.

Cumulated PrecipitationMorocco

0

100

200

300

400

500


dekad

mm

pre 2005/2006 pre 2006/2007 pre long-term average


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Climatic Water Balance

CWB for rain-fed winter crops

(October-January)

Comparing with previous season

Algeria - Egypt = Israel - Jordan + Lebanon - Libya = Morocco - Palestine Auth. = Saudi Arabia = Syria = Tunisia =

Mediterranean Sea

Syria

S. Arabia

Jordan

Israel

Lebanon

Egypt Libya

Tunisia Algeria

Morocco

The cumulated Climatic Water Balance (CWB) for December-January was positive for croplands of all countries of the region excluding Egypt, eastern Libya, Saudi Arabia, and western Morocco. The climatic water balance situation during December-January was worse than long-term average data for croplands in Syria, and Morocco, and it was close to the average values in other countries. The CWB during the period under analysis was worse than in the previous year in Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine Auth. It was close to the previous year in other countries of the region (see the map below). The CWB cumulated for the whole current vegetative season (October-January) was positive for croplands of all countries of the region excluding Egypt, Libya, western Morocco, and Saudi Arabia. At the end of January, the CWB situation was better than long-term average in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Tunisia, and worse in Saudi Arabia. Simultaneously, the situation with CWB at the end of January 2007 was worse than in the previous season in Algeria, Israel, Lebanon, Morocco, and it was better only in Jordan (see the table).

Palestine Auth.

Difference in Climatic Water Balance (mm) for the period December-January between current and previous season. Vertical hatching shows regions with positive Climatic Water Balance. (grey boundaries show units with croplands)

Cumulated Climatic Water BalanceAlgeria

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200


dekad

mm

cwb 2005/2006 cwb 2006/2007 cwb long-term average


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Remote Sensing Indicators

Remote sensing indicators of winter

crops status (current season)

NDVI in 2007 comparing with previous season

Year –analogue for the NDVI

curve behavior

Algeria = 2002 Egypt = 2003 Israel - 2004 Jordan - 2000 Lebanon = 2006 Libya + 2003 Morocco - 2002 Palestine Auth. = 2006 Saudi Arabia = 2006 Syria - 2005 Tunisia + 2003

The analysis of the NDVI profile’s behavior shows that the crop status at the end of January 2007 was better comparing with the previous year only in Libya, and Tunisia. The NDVI indicates worse crop status than in the previous year in Israel, Jordan, Morocco, and Syria. The NDVI curves shows that the winter crop development in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia is close to the season 2002/2003, in Jordan it is close to the season 1999/2000, in Israel – to 2003/2004 season, in Algeria, and Morocco – to the season 2001/2002, in Syria – to the season 2004/2005, and in Lebanon, Palestine Auth., and Saudi Arabia - to the previous season.

Examples of weighted NDVI profiles for areas with winter wheat and for country level (“min” and “max” are absolute extremes for the period 1999-2006)

Tunisia - winter wheat

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8


dekadsND

VI

2005/2006 2006/2007 min max

Israel - winter wheat

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8


dekads

NDVI

2005/2006 2006/2007 min max

Morocco - winter wheat

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8


dekads

NDVI

2005/2006 2006/2007 min max


9

Dry Matter Production modeling

Dry matter production modeling

(only for areas with winter crop)

DMP at the end of January 2007

comparing with previous season

Year –analogue for the DMP curve

behavior

Algeria + 2004 Egypt = 2003 Israel + 2001 Jordan + 1999 Lebanon = 2006 Libya + 2003 Morocco = 2001 Palestine Auth. + 2001 Saudi Arabia = 2006 Syria = 2006 Tunisia + 2003

The results of the Dry Matter Production (DMP) modeling demonstrate the better situation than in previous season at the end of January in winter cropping regions of Algeria, Israel, Jordan, Palestine Auth., Libya, and Tunisia. The situation in other countries of the region is close to the previous year. The DMP shows that in general the situation is not extreme in all countries of the region, excluding some regions of Morocco and Algeria, where the situation is significantly worse than in the previous season (see the map below). The cumulated DMP curves show that the winter crop development in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia is similar to the season 2002/2003, in Israel, Palestine Auth., and Morocco – it is close to the season 2000/2001, in Jordan – to the season 1998/1999, in Algeria – to the 2003/2004 season, and in other countries of the region - to the previous season.

Examples of weighted DMP profiles for areas with winter wheat and for country level (“min” and “max” are absolute extremes for the period 1999-2006)

Morocco - wheat

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

Oct1 Oct3 Nov2 Dec1 Dec3 Jan2 Feb1 Feb3 Mar2 Apr1 Apr3 May2 Jun1 Jun3

dekads

Cum

ulat

ed D

MP

(rela

tive

valu

es)

2006 2007 min max

Palestine Auth. - wheat

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000


dekads

Cum

ulat

ed D

MP

(rela

tive

valu

es)

2006 2007 min max

Libya - wheat

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000


dekads

Cum

ulat

ed D

MP

(rela

tive

valu

es)

2006 2007 min max


10

Yield Prediction

Use of the main crop growth indicators for winter wheat yield prediction at the end of January 2007

crop growth indicator & winter wheat yield expectation based on it’s analysis (t/ha) Linear regression with

Precipitation sum for the period from October to

January

Linear regression with DMP cumulated for October-January

Year-analogue for Cumulated for the

season Precipitation curve behavior

Year-analogue for NDVI curve

behavior

Year-analogue for Cumulated for the season Dry Matter production curve

behavior

country

yield R2 yield R2 year yield year yield year yield

Wheat yield expectation

for 2007 (t/ha)

Algeria 1.0 0.6077 - - 1996 1.3 2002 1.1 2004 1.4 1.0-1.4 Egypt - - 6.2 0.912 - - 2003 6.2 2003 6.2 6.1-6.3 Israel 1.9 0.6523 1.5 0.4093 1988 2.4 2004 2.4 2001 1.9 1.9-2.4 Jordan - - 1.2 0.6322 2003 1.4 2000 1.4 1999 1.3 1.2-1.4 Lebanon 2.5 0.4536 2.7 0.8081 1992 2.3 2006 - 2006 - 2.3-2.7 Libya - - - - 2005 0.8 2003 0.8 2003 0.8 0.7-0.9 Morocco 0.7 0.5214 - - 1987 1.0 2002 1.3 2001 1.2 0.7-1.2 Palestine Auth. - - 3.1 0.3269 2003 2006 - 2001 2.4 2.4-3.1 Saudi Arabia - - - - - - 2006 - 2006 - - Syria - - 3.1 0.5597 2006 - 2005 2.5 2006 - 2.5-3.1 Tunisia 2.0 0.5633 1.8 0.358 2004 1.8 2003 2.2 2003 2.2 1.8-2.2

The preliminary winter wheat yield 2007 figures were obtained based on regression analysis between the statistical yield values and separate crop growth indicators. The indicators selected were: NDVI time profile, amount of precipitation cumulated for the period from October to January, cumulated climatic water balance for the same period (CWB), and the results of dry matter (DMP) accumulation modeling (cumulated for the same period). These indicators were first aggregated for the areas with winter wheat at country level. It was found that statistical yields have no significant correlation with CWB values at the end of January for all countries of the region. Statistically significant regression equations were found for some countries between yield and cumulated DMP, and between yield and cumulated precipitation. These equations were applied for the calculation of the wheat yield 2007. The results are presented in the table below. The results of the similarity analysis (search of the year with the similar behavior of the indicator) for the Precipitation, NDVI and DMP curves were used as additional information. The square sums of deviation between the indicator in current and other seasons, as well as extreme deviation values were used for the definition of the year-analogue. The year – analogues for the countries of the region, and corresponding statistical yield figures are presented in the table. The final wheat yield expectation figures were obtained through the expert analysis of all yield prediction values, taking into consideration the qualitative analysis of other meteorological indicators. These values of yield expectation are preliminary, and should be used with caution. They will be updated in the next Bulletin.

south and east mediterranean countries...agro meteorological bulletin 1, 2007.south and east...

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