The chemical composition of the middle atmosphere - a nowcasting product based on irradiance observations of the experiments

LYRA/PROBA2 and PREMOS/PICARD

Werner Schmutz1), Tanja Egorova1), Eugene Rozanov1), Alexander Shapiro1), Anna Shapiro1),

Manfred Vogel2)1) Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos and

World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Davos, Switzerland2) Institut für 4D–Technologien, Hochschule für Technik FHNW, Windisch,

Switzerland

SOTERIA meeting, Saariselkä 22.3.2009

22.3.2009

Overview

• The PMOD/WRC space projects– LYRA/PROBA2– PREMOS/PICARD

• The nowcasting project• Current additions to SOCOLi

22.3.2009

LYRA

3 units12

detectors

24 LEDs…

315.0 x 92.5 x 222.0 mm~A4 size

5.0 kg

1 unit = 4 w

avelength

channels

22.3.2009

LYRA (FM March 2006)

BESSY synchrotron calibration at PTB

22.3.2009

LYRA integration on PROBA2 5.3.2007

Launch 15. July 2009

22.3.2009

Filter Radiometers

LYRA/PROBA2 (launch July 2009 ?!)

PREMOS-PFR/PICARD (launch 2009 or early 2010)

LYRA: 30 (Zr), 70 (Al), 125, 210210 nm

PREMOS: 215215, 266, 535, 607, 782

nm

22.3.2009

UV influence on the terrestrial atmosphere

Ozone mixing ratio changes (%) due to a 10% increase of the spectral solar flux in 1 wavelength bin (1 nm).

Ozone Herzberg band

210 nm

Ozone band 270 nm

Ly

30 km: level of max. ozone

change

22.3.2009

LYRA Instrumenton PROBA2(built by ROB &

PMOD/WRC)

Chemistry ionosphereclimate model

(CICM)extension of CCM SOCOL

(Egorova et al., 2005)

On-line LYRA datafor space-weather

community

LYRA/PROBA2

22.3.2009

Project idea

Nowcast of neutral and ion composition in the

mesosphere based on solar irradiance measurements

Hourly/Daily Data fromobservations by

PREMOS, LYRA, SORCE

Radiation spectrumreconstruction120-680 nm

(Egorova et al., 2008,ACP)

Nowcast of anomalies of neutraland charged species

with free running CICM SOCOLi

Nowcast results available on web

every 6 hoursOutput validation

to improve the model and experimental set-up

Evaluate the response of the middle atmosphere to the solar UV irradiance variability

22.3.2009

Aim of Nowcast

• Find out how well we understand the solar influence on the middle atmosphere;

• Learn how to provide near-real-time operation;

• Space Weather Service is secondary goal but may become interesting if successful !

22.3.2009

LYRA measurements:6-hourly solar irradiance at

115-125 nm (Lyman-)200-220 nm (Herzberg cont.)

Spectral irradiance for other wavelengthsMeasurements for previous month

Statistical tools

Input of spectral solar irradiance on model spectral grid for the next 6 hours

Data flow

22.3.2009

Status PMOD/WRC project Model SOCOLi is developed Getting ready for „operational service“ after PROBA 2 launch

Develop data flow; automatic modelling, and tool to browse the result via link available through European Space Weather Portal web page

Publications: – Egorova T. et al. 2004, GRL 31, L06119: Chemical and dynamical

response to the 11-year variability of the solar irradiance simulated with a chemistry-climate Model

– Egorova T. et al. 2005, COSPAR, Adv. Space Res. 35, 451-457: Influence of solar 11-year variability on chemical composition of the stratosphere and mesosphere simulated with a chemistry-climate model

– Rozanov E., Egorova T., Schmutz W., Peter T., 2006, J. Atm. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 68, 2203–2213, Simulation of the stratospheric ozone and temperature response to the solar irradiance variability during sun rotation cycle

– Egorova et al. 2008, ACP 8, 2965-2973, Nowcast and short-term forecast in the middle atmosphere based on the observed UV irradiance.

22.3.2009

SOCOL : modeling tool to study SOlar-Climate-Ozone LinksGeneral Circulation component (GCM): MA-ECHAM4 (Manzini & McFarlane,1998)Chemistry/transport component (CTM) : MEZON (Egorova et al., 2003)

GCM CTM

•Winds and temperature•H2O (troposphere)

•Ozone•H2O(stratosphere)

Main properties: ~4ºx4º (T30); L39; ~80km

Included all relevant physical, dynamical and chemical processes

Simulates wind, temperature, 43 neutral and 48 charged species

CICM SOCOL

22.3.2009

Spectral solar irradiance on model spectral grid for the next 6 hours

Initial fields for 10 ensemble members

10-member model ensemble run

for the next 6 hours

Model output for the next 6 hours

Initialization fields forthe next period

Experimental setup

22.3.2009

Mixing ratio of the neutral species and electrons, negative and positive ions density

for the 6 hour period after the last LYRA measurementand their statistical properties

OO+,+, O O22++, O, O44

++, N, N++, NO, NO++, N, N22++, H, H22OO22

++, H, H33OO++,O,O22++∙N∙N22, O, O22

++∙H∙H22O, HO, H33OO++∙OH, NO∙OH, NO++∙H∙H22O, O, NONO++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22, NO, NO++∙(H∙(H22O)O)33, NO, NO++∙CO∙CO22, NO, NO++∙N∙N22, NO, NO++∙H∙H22O∙COO∙CO22, NO, NO++∙H∙H22O∙NO∙N22, , NONO++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22∙CO∙CO22, NO, NO++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22∙N∙N22, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)33, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)44, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)55, , HH++∙(H∙(H22O)O)66, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)77, H, H33OO++∙CO∙CO22, H, H33OO++∙N∙N22, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22∙CO∙CO22, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22∙N∙N22

e¯,O¯, Oe¯,O¯, O22¯, O¯, O33¯, O¯, O44¯, OH¯, CO¯, OH¯, CO33¯, CO¯, CO44¯, NO¯, NO22¯, NO¯, NO33¯, HCO¯, HCO33¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, ¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CHCH33¯,O¯,O22¯∙H¯∙H22O, NOO, NO33¯∙H¯∙H22O, COO, CO33¯∙H¯∙H22OO

OO33 , O , O** , O , O , O , O22**, NO, HO, NO, HO22, ClO, NO, ClO, NO22 , OH, NO , OH, NO33, N, N22OO55, HNO, HNO33,HONO,HONO33, ClONO, ClONO22, ,

Cl, N, NCl, N, N**, H, H22OO22, H, HOCl, Cl, H, HOCl, Cl22, Cl, Cl22OO22, HCl ,Br, CH, HCl ,Br, CH22O, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNOO, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNO33, ,

BrCl, CHBrCl, CH33, CH, CH33OO22, CH, CH33O, HCO, CHO, HCO, CH33OO22H, HH, H22O, CFC-11, CFC-12, NO, CFC-11, CFC-12, N22O, CHO, CH44, CO, , CO,

HH22, CBrF, CBrF33

Output data

4DLocation, height, and time

22.3.2009

Positive ions

Negative ionsNegative ionsand electronsand electrons

NeutralsNeutrals

Graphs: Exp1-Graphs: Exp1-Exp2Exp2

1)1) Solar maximum Solar maximum with GCR at min + with GCR at min + NO ionizationNO ionization

2)2) Solar minimum Solar minimum control with GCR at control with GCR at max + NO max + NO ionizationionization

Model sensitivity to the changes of the solar spectral irradiance from minimum to maximum of the solar activity

22.3.2009

SUSIM data

SOCOL SOCOL calculationscalculations

Microwave Radiometer SOMORA :

Data provided byBern University

N.Kämpfer group

Red: Ly-alphaBlue: Herzberg

(scaled)

Comparison 3D simulation and observations: signal of 27-day solar cycle in ozone

22.3.2009

Latest update: SEP effects

Time-altitude distribution differences at 70-90 N relative to SEP effects turned off

Summary• SWAP (0.1 Hz) + LYRA (60 Hz) on

PROBA2 provide the EUV equivalent in Europe of the NOAA SXI + GOES X-ray monitor 2009-2011

• SODISM + PREMOS on PICARD will continue in the near UV and visual 2009/2010-2012