Solar Energy: “Silicon Secrets” Solar Energy: “Silicon Secrets”

James Dunn

Center for Technology Commercialization

Conf. on Future Energy

Washington, DC

Sept. 2006

PV Industry - ready to Take-off?PV Industry - ready to Take-off?

• Many large players entering Market like Honda, Mitsubishi, and Si Valley co’s

• Technology Advances

• Renewable Energy “Green” credits

• Utilities need Green Power

• DOE and DOD funding

• Zero Energy Homes

Silicon – “Energy Gold”Silicon – “Energy Gold”

• Solar power = less than 1 % of world's electricity - Growing over 40 % annually, $15 billion globally, says Rhone Resch, Pres. of the Solar Energy Industry Assoc.

• "The solar industry is the next great high-tech industry," Resch said. "Our estimate is that within 10 years solar could be the lowest cost option for US electricity"

World PV InstallationsWorld PV Installations

PV Market GrowthPV Market Growth

US losing market shareUS losing market share

• US has LOST lead in solar power development.

• In 1997, U.S. solar power mfg captured 100% of the domestic market;

• in 2003, we captured only 73%.

• In 1997, U.S. mfgr.s captured over 40% of the world market;

• in 2003, they captured only 14%.

• We need to regain our Leadership!

Is there enough Silicon materials?Is there enough Silicon materials?

• 94% of PV Market uses Silicon • Typically use “waste” si from

Semiconductor industry @ $30-40/kg• Demand outpacing supply by 2-3X• Spot market prices up to $175/kg!• New PV grade Silicon emerging• New non–Si technologies & methods• New Thin Film and flexible PV designs

Serious Silicon ShortagesSerious Silicon Shortages

• World Si production about 35,000 Tons/yr.

• PV Currently using up to 50% of Semiconductor grade materials ($$$$)

• Need 50-85,000 Tons Si to meet growth

• Si Represents 30-40% of total Panel cost

• Need to expand Si mfg. and reduce cost

• Typical (Siemens) plant costs $350-500M

PV Types and EfficienciesPV Types and Efficiencies

Basic PV operationBasic PV operation

Spectral ResponseSpectral Response

PhotoVoltaic Market ExplosionPhotoVoltaic Market Explosion

System Prices and cost targetsSystem Prices and cost targets

Shipments and Job forecastShipments and Job forecast

PV Efficiency Improving PV Efficiency Improving

Major players – Where is the US? Major players – Where is the US?

Sharp

Kyosera

BP Solar

Shell Solar

Schott

Electric power Generation costsElectric power Generation costs

Type Cost (c/kWh)

Combined cycle gas turbine 3-5 Wind Power 4-7 Biomass gasification 7-9 Remote diesel generation 20-40

Solar PV central station 20-30 Solar PV distributed 20-50

2020 Target PV Cost 5-10

Top 20 players in 2006Top 20 players in 2006

• • Applied Materials (US)• Evergreen Solar (US)• First Solar (US)• GT Solar (US)• Hemlock (US)• SunPower (US)

• US Co’s to Watch:– Dow Corning– Solar Sciences– NanoSolar- Energy Conversion Devices - Daystar- Spire – Equip, Supplier

• • BP Solar (UK)• Carmanah (Canada)• Conergy (Germany)• Ersol (Germany)• Kyocera (Japan)• M.Setek (Japan)• Motech (Taiwan)• Q-Cells (Germany)• REC (Norway)• Sanyo (Japan)• Sharp (Japan)• SolarWorld (Germany)

• • Suntech (China)• Tokuyama (Japan)

Market Forecast – Market Forecast – Photon ConsultingPhoton Consulting

Large 100-500 kW InstallationsLarge 100-500 kW Installations

Solar PV TrendsSolar PV Trends

Tracking CollectorsTracking Collectors

New PV Roofing TilesNew PV Roofing Tiles

New PV DesignsNew PV Designs

• Concentrating Solar Systems

Improved PV ModulesImproved PV Modules

• Larger sizes and features• Easy to Install• Longer life• Higher efficiency – up to 22%• Higher Cost per Watt – 2005 !

Solar ‘Deals’ ?Solar ‘Deals’ ?

• Evergreen EC120 Solar Panel120 Watts, 12 Volts DC - Made in USA

• Only $4.29 per Watt !• *Sale ends at 11AM ET,

Wednesday, 9/20/2006

$518.00   Save $337.00

NREL Solar Hydrogen Home NREL Solar Hydrogen Home VisionVision

PV Silicon supply solutionsPV Silicon supply solutions

Several pathways:

New PV grade Materials like Dow PV1101

New low cost Processes and Solar PV plants

Better yields – Thinner wafers

Thin Films and NanoSolar materials

Non Si Technologies CIGS, TiO2, etc.

R&D in higher efficiencies - $53M Univ. DE.

New Solar Silicon materials New Solar Silicon materials Dow Corning's PV1101 Dow Corning's PV1101

Coarser grade – 5-9’s purity

Need to blend with Semi grade Polysilicon

Cost savings limited (10% max)

Production limited

Requires blending

Market limited window

Catalyst Chamber

Main Vessel

Fuel Pump

Filter for hydrogen going to fuel cells

4-250-watt Fuel Cells

Photovoltaic arrays

Borohydride Fuel Tank

PV / Fuel Cell Hybrid Power Plants

World Trade Center complex goes World Trade Center complex goes LEEDLEED

Future plans may

Include solar

Can the US Regain leadership?Can the US Regain leadership?

Rapid Expansion ForecastRapid Expansion Forecast

• Solar production increase six-fold by 2010 : 10 GW BY 2010. The bulk of this growth will be in crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar cells/modules. Production of high purity Si feedstock rising from 32,000 tons in 2005 to over 85,000 tons in 2010, At the same time, increasing cell efficiencies and decreasing waste will enable silicon usage per watt to improve by 40%, from 11.5 g/W in 2005 to 7 g/W in 2010.

Total c-Si cell/module production should exceed 8 GW by 2010. stronge growth of non-traditional technologies (CdTe, a-Si, CIS, μc-Si, concentrators)

• We expect nontraditional production to expand from 0.15 GW (9% market share) in 2005 to 2 GW (20% market share) in 2010.

Zero Energy Solar HomesZero Energy Solar Homes

PV competes with PV competes with Small Wind TurbinesSmall Wind Turbines

• New Propeller-Free Spiral Designs –

• New Integrated Inverters and controls

New World Global Warming FundsNew World Global Warming Funds

Richard Branson pledged $3 billion to battle global warming, 9-22-06

Clinton announced launch of a $1B renewable energy investment fund 9-23

Clinton’s Green Fund to focus on reducing pollution and our dependence on fossil fuels.

“The Earth is warming at an alarming rate, we are running out of fossil fuels, and it is time for us to take action to correct these problems,” Clinton said.

“This is also a tremendous opportunity and there are countless good new jobs to be created in green energy field.”

The Race Heats upThe Race Heats up

• Billions being spent

• Many large players

• Unlimited Market growth

• Improved performance

• Closing in on Electric costs

• Ideal for emerging countries

Future Vehicle TechnologyFuture Vehicle Technology

COFE - Wash. DCJames Dunn

Center for Technology CommercializationSept. 2006

Future Vehicle Techs. 2010-2020Future Vehicle Techs. 2010-2020

• Many configurations, options & drive trains• Lower Drag – high efficiency, streamlined bodies• Advanced Spaceframes – Alum. + more magnesium• Light weight Composite bodies and components• New Airless tires and compliant wheels• New Engines like Free Piston Engine-Generators• Many fuels – Ethanol, CNG, BioDiesel, Syngas ? • More Electric drives and Wheel Motors• Novel Energy storage systems• Adv. Sensors/controls – Rear view cameras & auto-parking• Auto-Pilots - Lane tracking & auto. navigation

Vehicle TrendsVehicle Trends

Future drivetrain optionsFuture drivetrain options

Gas, Diesel, or H2 Hybrid vehiclesPlug-In Hybrids – novel energy storagePure EV’s, some with series hybrid ICEHydraulic Hybrids – I.E. EPACompressed Air drive systemsNew Magnetic motor drives and Wheel MotorsNew IC Engines – Scuderi Split Cycle Engine, Rand Cam engine, DOD engines, Sterlings,

and Free Piston Engines/GeneratorsMulti-fuelled – CNG, Ethanol, Gas, Biofuels, H2

Free Piston EnginesFree Piston Engines

Basic Free Piston Engine SpecsBasic Free Piston Engine Specs

• 35 KW design

• Simple - 1 Moving part

• Hydrogen Combustion – No Emissions

• 50% Thermal Efficiency

• Low Cost

• Long Life

Future Vehicle Technology Future Vehicle Technology

Technology Time Mpg• Hybrid Gas-electric 2000-2015 50-85+• Hybrid diesel-electric 2007-2015 75-100• Hydrogen ICE 2008-2030 40-75• Alt. Fuel Hybrids 2010-2020 60-100• Plug-in Hybrids/EV’s 2010-2025 100-175• H2 ICE Hybrids 2015-2030 100-150• Hybrid MicroTurbine 2018-2030 100-175• Hydrogen Fuel Cell 2020-2035 75-120

Alternative FuelsAlternative Fuels

Ethanol, Methanol, CNG

BioDiesel + SynDiesel

(Waste) Vegetable oils

BioMass derived fuels, SynFuels

H2, Urea, Ammonia

Radioactive Pellets/Isotopes

Other ?

Ford E-450 Van with Triton V-Ford E-450 Van with Triton V-10 Hydrogen ICE10 Hydrogen ICE

Hybrid Trucks & busesHybrid Trucks & buses

New Tires and WheelsNew Tires and Wheels

Yes – No Air used !Yes – No Air used !

Improved driving – less riskImproved driving – less risk

May be on market by 2008May be on market by 2008

New Hybrid DesignsNew Hybrid Designs

Use of U-caps and low cost LiIon batts

250 MPG ??250 MPG ??

Battery EV’sBattery EV’s

Coming in 2012 ??Coming in 2012 ??

New Fuel Cell carsNew Fuel Cell cars

GM Sequel – Equinox – 100 units to be field tested

BMW – Dual H2/Gas 750 BMW – Dual H2/Gas 750

What is it?What is it?

Home Fuel Cell Vehicle Home Fuel Cell Vehicle Refueling StationRefueling Station