soejachmoen - opportunities and challenges across the ... mandiri... · creates employment in...
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OpportunitiesandChallengesacrosstheIndonesiaInvestmentLandscape
Moekti P.Soejachmoen,PhDHeadofMandiri InstitutePT.BankMandiri,PerseroApril2018
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EconomicPerformanceandOutlook
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9
7.4
5.6
3.7 3.5 3.32.7 2.3 2.1 2.1 2 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.4
-0.6 -2
0
2
4
6
8
10
China India Indonesia S.Arabia Turkey Korea Australia Argentina Mexico S.Africa Brazil Russia Canada US Germany UK France Japan Italy
G20&BRICS
4.834.74 4.78
5.15
4.94
5.21
5.034.94
5.01 5.01 5.06
5.19
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
5
5.1
5.2
5.3
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
IndonesiaEconomicPerformancein2017Successfullymaintainthegrowthperformanceandperformsbetterthanmanyotheremergingeconomies
2015YoY:4.88
2016YoY:5.03
2017YoY:5.07
Source:CEIC
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6.7 6.96.6
6.4
6.0
6.5
7.0
2016
2017
2018F
2019F
8.27.1 7.4 7.8
6.07.08.09.0
2016
2017
2018F
2019F
-3.46
-3.46
1.9 2.1
-7.0
-2.0
3.0
2016
2017
2018F
2019F
3.2 3.2
3.6 3.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2016
2017
2018F
2019F
5.0 5.1
5.3 5.3
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
2016
2017
2018
F
2019
F
1.5
2.32.7 2.5
1.0
2.0
3.0
2016
2017
2018F
2019F
0.91.6
1.2 0.9
0.0
1.0
2.0
2016
2017
2018F
2019F
1.8 1.82.2 2.0
1.01.52.02.5
2016
2017
2018F
2019F
1.9 1.81.5 1.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2016
2017
2018
F
2019
F
1.92.2 2.4
1.9
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2016
2017
2018
F
2019
F
AdvancedEconomies
EmergingEconomies
Pickupintheglobalgrowthhasbeenbroadbased,inadvancedandemergingeconomiesStrongermomentumin2017isexpectedtocarryinto2018&2019
EmergingeconomiesinAsiaareexpectedtogrowbroadlyatthesamepaceasin2017,whilegrowthinChinaisexpectedtomoderategradually
USeconomyhasbeengrowingatastrongerpacethanexpected,thetaxreformisanticipatedtostimulateneartermactivityofUSgrowth
Source:CEIC4
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FutureGlobalEconomicTrends
PopulisminEU(Brexit,Euroceptics)
RiseofAsiaasanEconomicPowerhouse
ProtectionisminUSA(InwardLookingPolicies)
RiseofMillennial RiseofMachines
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16,215
19,475
24,565
28,618 28,530 29,276 28,964
32,240
6,6698,666
9,821
12,25013,158 13,404
16,253
19,336
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
USD
Million
ForeignDirectInvestment DomesticDirectInvestment
TotalInvestmentcontinuedtoincreasewithhighergrowthin2017ForeignDirectInvestmentshowed11%increasedin2017comparedto2016
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MacroIndicatorsForecasts
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F
RealGDP(%) 6.0 5.6 5.0 4.8 5.0 5.07 5.3
CPIinflation(%,eop) 3.7 8.1 8.4 3.4 3.0 3.61 3.61
CADtoGDP(%) -2.8 -3.2 -3.1 -2.0 -1.9 -1.7 -2.0
Rp/USD(eop) 9,670 12,189 12,440 13,795 13,436 13,568 13,598
7-dayreporate - - - - 4.75 4.25 4.25
Source:CEIC,Mandiri GroupForecast7
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OpportunitiesacrossInvestmentLandscape
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Source:MinisterofFinance’sPresentationatMandiri InvestmentForum2018
IndonesianGovernmentisverycommittedtoimplementstructuralreformsSomeofinternationallyrecognizedachievementsinimplementingit
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54 55 54
4446
50
38
3437
41
36
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
129122 126 129
116 120 120
106
91
72
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
CompetitivenessIndexRank
EaseofDoingBusinessRank
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Fintech Outlook2018Peertopeerlending(P2PL)andpaymentfintechs willcontinuetogrowin2018
Fourth largest population and the economy continues to grow, expected to
reach 5.3% next year, slightly higher than ASEAN-5 (5.2%) and also higher than global economic growth (3.7%).
Economic condition is favorable
Financial access is still low
59% of SMEs have an account at a formal financial institution, 26% of
SMEs have outstanding loan. 15% of adult population use digital payment,
much lower than the Asia Pacific average (41%).
Growing e-commerce drive an increase of
P2PL and payment
Funds channeled through P2PL platforms have reached
IDR 1.9 trillion (about 15x higher than last year). 99% of
fintech transaction value in 2017 comes from e-
commerce transactions payment (Statista)
Regional head elections will
encourage the growth of P2PL
and payment MSMEs’ campaign materials providers will need more loans. It will also encourage e-commerce
transactions, therefore will increase the payment activities.
Affordable smartphone price
drives usage of smartphoneIn 2018, smartphone users
are expected to reach 26.3% of the total population, up
from this year's 23.7%.
Development of fintech is fully
supported by the government
Fintechs will help to increase fin inclusion,
encourage the reduction of costs in economic
activities, job creation, understand behavior, and
data optimization.
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4.61 5.78 7.06 8.59 10.37
2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F
(USDBn)
E-CommerceOutlook2018PromisingDemandSize
Retail e-Commerce sales in Indonesia still thrives
Growing digital buyers in Indonesia
Relatively current low internet user penetration in Indonesia
More middle-end smartphones available
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2018’s Growth:
21.8%
2018’s Growth:
21.8%
22.20 24.70 28.20 31.70 35.40
2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F
(millionpeople)
82%1
58% 71%3
67% 51%
SEA avg: 53%
GLOBAL avg: 50%
Smartphone Class Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017
Ultra High End (>USD 600) 2% 3% 1%
High End (USD 400 - USD 600) 1% 1% 3%
Mid Range (USD 200 - USD 400) 9% 13% 28%
Low End (USD 100 - USD 200) 33% 40% 43%
Ultra Low End (< USD 100) 56% 43% 26%
Indonesia Smartphone Market Share
Source:Statista,IDC,WeAreSocial,Hootsuite
1.4%
3.1%
3.9%
4.4%
2.2%
Shareoftotalretail
sales
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E-CommerceOutlook2018Fiercecompetition
Battle of big players such as Bukalapakand Tokopedia still continues
Clash of the Titans
Brick and mortar goes
digital
The diversification of retail channel through digital platform has become strategy of conventional retail to sustain their business
Race in digital payment for
obtaining larger consumer database
Consumer database is valuable resource for product
development
Suitable tax policy is critical in fostering
E-Commerce business
Tax policy should guarantee level of playing field in E-Commerce business and will not limit the development of E-commerce
More collaboration in digital ecosystem
P2P Lending goes to finance E-Commerce merchants
Niche market
New comer must offer different strategy and have unique features to obtain niche market
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DigitalEconomyOutlook2018Optimizebenefitandmitigaterisks
Impact on job creation
SMEs should benefit from Fintechcompetition
Consumers protection and supportive
regulatory framework
Domestic industry promotion
• Fintech (P2P lending) helps SMEs which are unbanked and underbanked to get financed and runs their business.
• In 2018, we expect to see more entrants in P2P lending business as several companies are waiting for their permit to be approved by regulator. Given this point, SMEs should have more financing source to develop their business.
Source:MandiriInstitute
• SMEs absorb more than 90% of national labor force as this sector has more labor intensive nature. The role of Fintech in reaching out SMEs will also affect job creation generated by SMEs business expansion.
• New Fintechestablishment also creates employment in digital business such as data scientist, digital marketing and software programming
• Creative industry such as fashion and handy crafts has very good opportunity to promote their products through E-Commerce platform.
• The upcoming package of regulation should guarantee consumer protection particularly in fraud anticipation.
• Correspondingly, regulator need to be precise and careful in designing regulation in order to maintain the pace of digital business as well as mitigate its business risks.
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IndustrialRevolution4.0isagamechangerforIndonesiaeconomyImplicationofIndonesianeconomy/industryenvironmentforthe4IR
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Indonesiafallsbehindglobalpeersintechnologyinvestment
Source:ATKerney,2017 16
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ProductivitypercostinIndonesiaisflattening;weakeningIndonesia’spositionintheglobalcompetition
Source:ATKerney,2017 17
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Source:ATKerney,2017
IndonesiaisshowingthelowesttradeflowinASEANwhileshrinkingnetexport
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Sectorprioritizationof4IRfocusesongrowthdrivenbynetexport,withpositiveimpactonjobs
Source:ATKerney,2017 19
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Source:ATKerney,2017
5sectorswereselectedfor4th IndustrialRevolutionimplementationprioritysectors
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ChallengesacrossInvestmentLandscape
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2018LocalElections 2019Legislative andPresidentialElections
• 171elections:• 17provinces• 39cities/municipals• 115 regencies/districts
• 574pairsofcandidates
• Officetobefilled:• 1presidency• 575 HRmembers• 132DPDmembers• >190,000localHRmembers
(for548localHR)
• >160 millionvoters • >195millionvoters• >480,000polling stationsacross
17,000islands• 4millionpollingstationofficials• 700millionballots,2,450ballot
designs
• June27,2018 • April 2019(thepreparationprocesshasstartedsinceNovember2017
Indonesiawillhavesimultaneouslocalelectionsin2018andlegislativeandpresidentialelectionsin2019
Source:Djayadi Hanan’s PresentationatMandiri InvestmentForum2018
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IndonesiaPoliticalCalendarin2018
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Indonesialackskeydigitalinfrastructuretoimplement4IR
FiberOptic
DataCenter/Cloud
5G
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Indonesiastillneedstosimplifyindustrialpolicyandregulations
Needtightercoordination
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Conclusion
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v ToimproveeconomicgrowthinIndonesia,industrializationespecially4IRisneeded,whichinturnneedslotsofinvestmentbothdomesticandforeigndirectinvestment
v Governmentiscommittedtocontinuouslyandconsistentlyimproveitsinvestmentclimatetocreateagoodandstableenvironmentforbusinesstothriveandprosper
v Indonesiaoffersapromisingfutureforbusiness.Donotwaittoolong.InvestinIndonesiaassoonaspossible
Conclusion:
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ThankYou
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