Smart Money on Smart Growth

Trends since 2006

Evan Richert

2012 GrowSmart Maine Summit

A Few Old Friends

Small Town Civics

Young Turks

Introspectives

The Untapped Market

Share of All Homebuyers Share Not Served

Small Town Civics 24% 70%

Young Turks 12% 36%

Introspectives 15% 35%

Totals 51% 37%

• Great Recession• Gasoline Prices• Connectivity• Rise of GenY

4 Forces Shaping Market Preferences:

Charting Maine’sFuture Released

Source: D. Short, Advisors Pspective, Inc.

Charting Maine’sFuture Released

Shifting Breakeven Cost, Housing + CommutingPortland Area

Shifting Breakeven Costs, Housing + CommutingBangor Area

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

Housing + Commuting Costs(work in Bangor)

Commuting Cost

Housing Cost

Connectivity since 2006

50,000

140,000,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2007 2012

Mill

ions

Active Twitter Accounts, 2007 v 2012

Charting Maine’sFuture Released;Twitter est. 2006

3-Ring BindThree-Ring Binder

382,000

301,000

0 100 200 300 400

>65 yrs

Baby Boom

Gen X

Gen Y

0-9 yrs

Thousands

Est. Maine Population by Generation, 2011

Where Gen Y Lives and Works

14%

38%

49%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Rural Community

Suburbs (Older & Outlying)

Urban (Downtown, In-City N'hood, Small City)

Current Location of Gen-Y Owners

Source: ULI, 2011

6%

21%

72%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Rural Community

Suburbs (Older & Outlying)

Urban (Downtown, In-City N'hood, Small City)

Current and Projected Location of Gen Y Work Places

2015

2010

Source: ULI, 2011

“They are willing to pay for the ability to walk. They don’t want to be in a cookie-cutter type of development. The suburbs will need to evolve to be attractive to Gen Y.”

-- Melina Duggal, RCLCO Real Estate Advisors, 2011 NAHB

Fewer and Shorter Vehicle Trips

-4.2%

-16.6%

-21.5%-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

Population 18-34 Vehicle trips Vehicle miles

Change in Vehicle Trips and Miles Per Person 18-34 yrs old, 2001-2009

Source: NHTS, US Dept of Transportation

Importance of Walking Distance to Shopping, Gathering Spaces: Gen Y

36%

50%

14%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Not an Issue

Preferable

Essential

Source: ULI, “Generation Y: America’s New Housing Wave,” 2011

Tapping into the Market

Dunstan Crossing…

…And Eastern Village

Flexible, Networked Work Space

PelotonLabs, Portland

Think Tank,Portland

CoLabGardiner

New Wave of Mill RedevelopmentHathaway Creative Center,Waterville

Bates Mill and Fountain Park,Lewiston

Sanford Mill,Sanford

New Life for Downtown Waterfronts: Entertainment

Bangor Waterfront Pavilion

Infill on <5000 sf Lots, So. Portland

Photos: Kristel Sheesley

Seeping into the Official LanguageTransit-Oriented Development TIF District (Orono-UMaine Shuttle)

Traditional Neighborhood Development (TND) Zoning District, Scarborough

Form-Based Zoning (Standish)

Walkability(walkscore.com)

A Few Old Friends

Small Town Civics

Young Turks

Introspectives