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Slide TitleExtreme Heat EventsClimate Change Training Module
Extreme Heat Events, Climate Change and
Public HealthMinnesota Climate and Health Program
Minnesota Department of HealthEnvironmental Impacts Analysis Unit
October 2012
625 Robert Street NorthPO Box 64975
St. Paul, MN 55164-0975
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MDH developed this presentation based on scientific research published in peer-reviewed journals. References for information can be found in the relevant slides and/or at the end of the presentation.
Notice
Learning Objectives
1. Discuss climate changes and temperature trends in Minnesota
2. Define extreme heat event (EHE) and the relationship between climate change/temp trends and EHE
3. Define Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect4. Describe human health impacts of EHE and the
populations most vulnerable to or risk factors of EHE
5. Discuss public health response and individual strategies
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Objectives
1. Discuss climate changes and temperature trends in Minnesota
2. Define Extreme heat event (EHE) and the relationship between climate change/temp trends and EHE
3. Define Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect4. Describe human health impacts of EHE and the
populations most vulnerable to or risk factors of EHE
5. Discuss public health response and individual strategies
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Weather versus Climate
Weather: conditions of the atmosphere over a short period of time
Climate: conditions of the atmosphere over long periods of time (30-year standard averaging period)
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Climate Changes in Minnesota
There have been three recent significant observed climate trends in Minnesota: The average temperature is increasing The average number of days with a high
dew point may be increasing The character of precipitation is changing
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Temperature Changes
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Three significant observations in this overall warming: Winter temperatures have been rising about twice
as fast as annual average temperatures Minimum or 'overnight low' temperatures have
been rising faster than the maximum temperature, or ‘daytime high’
Since the early 1980s, the temperature has risen slightly over 1°F in southern Minnesota to a little over 2°F in much of the northern part of the state
Dew Point Changes
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Dew point definition: Dew point is a measure of water vapor in the air.
The higher the dew point, the more difficult it is for people's sweat to evaporate, which is how they would otherwise shed body heat.
The number of days with high dew point temperatures (≥ 70 °F) may be increasing in Minnesota.
Precipitation Changes
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On average, the total precipitation in the state has increased since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s.
Precipitation Changes
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The character of precipitation in Minnesota is changing More localized, heavy precipitation events Potential to cause both increased flooding and
drought
Objectives
1. Discuss climate changes and temperature trends in Minnesota
2. Define Extreme heat event (EHE) and the relationship between climate change/temp trends and EHE
3. Define Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect4. Describe human health impacts of EHE and the
populations most vulnerable to or risk factors of EHE
5. Discuss public health response and individual strategies
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Definition of Extreme Heat Events
Criteria shift depending upon: Temperature Dew Point/ Relative
Humidity Cloud cover Different local standards
for what is ‘unusually’ hot weather
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Heat Index
The Heat Index (HI): calculation that describes how the air temperature and dew point are perceived the human body
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National Weather Service
17Source: NWS, 2011
Maximum heat index is expected to reach 100°F and/or the maximum temperature is ≥ 95°F
Warnings issued if advisory criteria are expected for ≥ 4 days and/or maximum heat index is ≥ 105°F with minimum heat index ≥ 75°F for at least 48 hours
Greater MN Extreme Heat Warning System:Heat Advisory
National Weather Service
18Source: NWS, 2011
≥ 95°F heat index for at least 1 day, or
≥ 95°F heat index with minimum overnight low
temperature ≥ 75°F for at least 2 days
Warnings issued if conditions are expected for
4 or more days and/or maximum heat index
reaches 100°F for at least 1 day.
Ramsey/Hennepin County Extreme Heat Warning System: Heat Advisory
Recent Extreme Heat Events
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5 heat episodes in summer 2011 worthy of issuances of warnings or advisories: June 6-7 June 30-July 1 July 16-20 July 23 August 1
Extreme Heat Event Records
July 19, 2011: All-time heat index record for the Twin Cities. The air temperature reported at worst hour was 95°F and was paired with the 82°F dew point temperature
heat index of 119°FRecord state dew point temperature of 88°F with 93°F air temp
heat index of 130°F
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Historical Minnesota EHE
1883, 1894, 1901, 1910, 1917, 1921, 1931, 1933, 1934, 1936, 1937, 1947, 1948, 1949, 1955, 1957, 1959, 1964, 1976, 1977, 1983, 1988, 1995,1999, 2001, 2005, 2006,
2007, 2010
Red denotes dewpoint driven
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EHE and Climate Changes
In Minnesota more EHE are led by high dew points, and dew points may be rising
Relief from EHE comes from overnight low temperatures, and overnight low temperatures are rising
Minnesota is at risk of more EHE
Objectives
1. Discuss climate changes and temperature trends in Minnesota
2. Define Extreme heat event (EHE) and the relationship between climate change/temp trends and EHE
3. Define Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect4. Describe human health impacts of EHE and the
populations most vulnerable to or risk factors of EHE
5. Discuss public health response and individual strategies
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Urban Heat Islands (UHI)
Definition: Elevated temperatures in urban and suburban areas relative to outlying rural surroundings
Causes: Reduced vegetation Dark heat-absorbing
surfaces Reflective surfaces
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Effect is proportional to the size of the city – but all cities, large and small, have them
On average, a city with 1M people can have a 2-6°F UHIOn clear, calm nights, this can be as high as 20+°F
Urban Heat Islands
Results in higher daytime temperatures and reduced nighttime cooling (pavement releases heat at night) – year round effect
Consequences Economic cost of cooling buildings because of UHI in summer Lack of bitterly low temps in winter Increased severe weather Precipitation changes - ~30% increase in precipitation downwind Production of air pollutants (ground-level ozone) Worsen heat waves in the urban areas Overall effect urban ecosystems Source: EPA, 2008
Green roofs: Vegetative layer grown on a rooftop Reduces temperatures on roof surface through shade and evapotrans- piration
Cool roofs/pavements: Highly reflective materials Can remain 50-60°F cooler than traditional materials
during peak summer heat Permeable pavements:
Moisture within the pavement structure evaporates as the surface heats, thus drawing heat out of the pavement, similar to evaporative cooling from vegetated land cover
Mitigating Urban Heat Islands
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Target Center Roof in Minneapolis
Mitigating Urban Heat Islands
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Thermal image of New York City
Vegetation in New York City
Adding trees and vegetation
Images from NASA
Objectives
1. Discuss climate changes and temperature trends in Minnesota
2. Define Extreme heat event (EHE) and the relationship between climate change/temp trends and EHE
3. Define Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect4. Describe human health impacts of EHE and the
populations most vulnerable to or risk factors of EHE
5. Discuss public health response and individual strategies
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EHE and Human Health
Extreme heat events can cause: Heat tetany (hyperventilation) Heat rash Heat cramps Heat exhaustion Heat edema (swelling) Heat syncope (fainting) Heat/sun stroke Death
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Deaths from EHE
From 1979 to 2003, more people in America died from extreme heat than from floods, hurricanes, lightning, tornadoes, and earthquakes combined The 1995 Chicago heat wave caused more than 600 heat- related deaths over 5 days France, summer of 2003: 14,802 excess deaths
The 2010 Moscow heat wave caused more than 11,000 excess deaths
(Hurricane Katrina: 1,833 confirmed deaths, World Trade Center: 2,726 deaths)
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Populations At Risk to EHE
Everyone Elderly persons 65 years and older
Especially who live alone Children Persons with pre-existing disease conditions Persons taking certain medications that hinder thermo- regulation or cause dehydration
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Risk Factors
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Lack of air conditioners in homes Low socioeconomic status Living in urban areas: urban heat island effect Living in topmost floor Living in nursing homes / being bedridden Living alone / Lack of social or family ties Prolonged exposure to sun Drinking alcohol
Objectives
1. Discuss climate changes and temperature trends in Minnesota
2. Define Extreme heat event (EHE) and the relationship between climate change/temp trends and EHE
3. Define Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect4. Describe human health impacts of EHE and the
populations most vulnerable to or risk factors of EHE
5. Discuss public health response and individual strategies
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Public Health Response to EHE
Six key steps for responding to extreme heat events:1. Develop a heat response plan2. Predict the extreme heat event3. Assess risk and determine activation of the response plan4. Activate the response plan and notify the public5. Implement the response plan6. Evaluate the response plan
Heat Response Plan
A heat response plan should be developed before an extreme heat event. Heat response plan may be added as annex to local all-hazard plan.
Response Plan Critical Elements:Identification of a lead agency responsible for the response planDefined criteria for activating and deactivating the planDefined roles and activities of agencies and organization involved with the planA communications plan for communicating heat-related information to partners and the public before, during and after an extreme heat eventIdentification of high-risk and vulnerable personsStrategies for preventing morbidity and mortality from extreme heatEvaluation of the response plan
Identification of high-risk and vulnerable persons
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Map populations at risk to assist development of strategies for targeted outreach in heat response plan.
See MDH Climate Change website for statewide maps of vulnerable populations and data sources for risk factors.
http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/climatechange/index.html
Strategies for preventing morbidity and mortality
Promote pre-summer awareness education & ongoing communication with the public
Dissemination information & plan with local partners (e.g., local Red Cross chapter, social service organizations, etc.)
Activate a heat line Designate community ‘cooling centers’ Suspend utility shutoffs and provide
transportation and financial assistance And more!
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Strategies for Individuals
Stay Hydrated! Drink plenty of fluids Avoid alcoholic beverages Avoid drinks that are high in sugar
Stay Cool! Stay indoors, in air-conditioned places Fans are not effective in high 90s°F Wear lightweight, light-colored, loose fitting clothing
If you must be outside: Schedule outdoor activities carefully Take time to adjust to the heat Pace yourself
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Strategies for Individuals
Check on persons at more risk to heat: Do not leave children
or pets in cars Check on elderly
neighbors Stay informed!
Listed to the local news for daily weather forecast
Get health and safety info from local public health department
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Summary
Minnesota’s climate has become warmer and more humid
Minnesota may experience more frequent and/or intense EHE
Minnesota may experience higher morbidity and mortality due to EHE
Certain populations are more vulnerable to EHE Public health practitioners should be aware of
where those populations are located and know how to mitigate the risks to EHE
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Resources
Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) Climate & Health Program http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/climatechange/in
dex.html
MN State Climatology Office http://climate.umn.edu/
National Weather Service – Twin Cities http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/
Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) Climate & Health Program http://www.cdc.gov/climatechange/
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MDH Extreme Heat Toolkit• Introduction to extreme heat events
• Why care?• Minnesota is warming• Defining extreme heat events
• Extreme Heat Events and Public Health• Health issues caused by extreme heat• Characteristics that negatively affect health
outcomes from extreme heat• Preparing Minnesota for Extreme Heat Events
• Key steps for responding to extreme heat events• Developing a heat response plan• Additional strategies to prevent heat-related
morbidity and mortality• Mitigation/adaptation to extreme heat• Training and resources for extreme heat
• Appendices: • Draft language for heat response plan/excessive
heat annex• A tip sheet for individuals • Data sources for characteristics that increase the
risk of heat-related illnesses• Extreme heat mapping: using GIS to identify
populations at risk & resources
Acknowledgements
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This work was supported by cooperative agreement 5UE1EH000738 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Special thanks to the following people for their contributions to the creation of this training module:
Pam Blixt, Minneapolis Health & Family SupportGeri Maki, MDHMyrlah Olson, MDH Dr. Mark Seeley, University of MinnesotaDon Sheldrew, MDHDr. Peter Snyder, University of MinnesotaDr. Tracy Twine, University of Minnesota
Thank You
Contact the Minnesota Climate and Health Program:
651-201-4893
http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/climatechange/
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Questions?
October 10, 2012
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Photo Credits
Slide 5: Microsoft Clipart Slide 14: Microsoft Clipart Slide 19: Summer by Juxxo, 2006 on Deviantart.com Slide 24: Arizona State Department of Agriculture (provided by Peter Synder) Slide 25: Page 14 (EPA, 2008) Slide 26: Image courtesy NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio (1997).
Available online: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GreenRoof/Images/atlanta_thermal.jpg
Slide 27: Image source - Pam Blixt, City of Minneapolis, Department of Health and Family Support Slide 30: Microsoft Clipart Slide 31: AFP/Getty Images (provided by Peter Synder) Slide 32: Image from the University of Virginia Institute on Aging. Available online:
http://www.virginia.edu/insideuva/2005/02/aging.html Slide 34: Microsoft Clipart Slide 41: Microsoft Clipart Slide 42: Microsoft Clipart