skills for life redefining the role of tertiary education
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5th OECD World Forum Guadalajara, Jal. Mexico. October 13, 2015
Francisco Marmolejo Tertiary Education Coordinator The World Bank [email protected]
@fmarmole
@fmarmole Email: [email protected]
Strong GDP and productivity growth in early 2000s
Real GDP growth and labor productivity (2000-2007)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
ECA LAC EAP OECD (Europe) OECD (Non Europe)
Real GDP growth (annual average, percent) Real GDP per capita growth (annual average, percent)
GDP per person employed (US$ at PPP, 1990)
Percent (annual average) Percent (annual average)
Source: World Development Indicators (WDI); World Bank (2014), Back To Work: Growing with Jobs in Europe and Central Asia
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
ECA LAC EAP OECD (Europe) OECD (Non Europe)
Real GDP growth (annual average, percent) Real GDP per capita growth (annual average, percent)
GDP per person employed (US$ at PPP, 1990)
Real GDP growth and labor productivity (2008-2012) Percent (annual average) Percent (annual average)
But GDP and productivity growth slowed down due to crisis
Source: World Development Indicators (WDI); World Bank (2014), Back To Work: Growing with Jobs in Europe and Central Asia
Limited employment growth
Missed opportunity to spur growth and welfare
Tension exacerbated by demographic pressures
10 %
1910
50 %
2007
75 %
2050
WORLD POPULATION LIVING IN CITIES
1.16
1.18
8.2
4.75
0 2 4 6 8 10
Developedcountries
Developingcountries
19982050
Source: UN 1998 World Population Report
Source: United Nations Population Division (2010), World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision
Japan 2050: 70 65+ yr. old persons per 100 persons aged 15-65 yr.
Nearly a half of the MENA population is under twenty
Source: Richards, A Political Economy of the Middle East, 2008
Source: World Bank. World Development Report. 2015
Net Migration (in millions of people). 1960-2010
Source: World Bank (2012). World Databank: Net Migration
Employment Composition (simple cross country average by type of occupation; 2000-2012)
0
10
20
30
40
50
6020
00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Shar
e in
tota
l em
ploy
men
t (%
)
OECD countries
Non-routine cognitive or inter-personal
Routine cognitive or manual
Non-routine manual
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Shar
e in
tota
l em
ploy
men
t (%
)
Developing countries
Non-routine cognitive or inter-personal
Routine cognitive or manual
Non-routine manual
Source: WDR 2016 team, based on ILO KILM data. Skills classification follows Autor (2014).
% of 15-year olds who are functionally illiterate, scoring “below level 2” on PISA Reading Test 2012. Selected countries
Source: WB Staff calculations using OECD PISA 2012.
19
Source: World Development Report 2013
72 % of educators
58 % of employers
NO
SI
Source: Mourshed, Farrell, y Barton (2012), Education to Employment: Designing a System that Works.
Hypothesis : the labor market is demanding a combination of skills different to the ones that are
being provided by the educational system
Projections of the number of 25-34 year-olds with tertiary education, 2005-2030
Note: Figures are estimates based on available data. Population estimates are based on OECD’s annual population projections Source: OECD, UNESCO, and National Statistics websites for Argentina, China, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and South Africa
Average rate of return to year of schooling is 10.4%
Based on comparable estimates of 545 observations, 131 economies, 1970-2011 In Latest year available: average rate of return is 9.9%
0.0
5.1
.15
.2D
ensi
ty
0 5 10 15 20Rate of return
Source: Montenegro, C.E. & H.A. Patrinos (2013). Returns to Schooling around the World. The World Bank
Table 3: Returns to schooling by educational level and region (latest available year between 2000-2011)
Region Primary Secondary Tertiary GDP/pc (PPP 2005)
N
World 10.3 6.9 16.8 6,719 74 Middle East and North Africa 9.4 3.5 8.9 3,645 7
South Asia 9.6 6.3 18.4 2,626 4 Eastern and Central Europe 8.3 4.0 10.1 6,630 7
High Income Economies 4.8 5.3 11.0 31,748 6
East Asia and Pacific 11.0 6.3 15.4 5,980 6 Latin America and Caribbean 9.3 6.6 17.6 7,269 20
Sub-Saharan Africa 13.4 10.8 21.9 2,531 24
Returns highest at Tertiary Level
Source: Montenegro, C.E. & H.A. Patrinos (2013). Returns to Schooling around the World. The World Bank
A one-year increase in the tertiary education stock would raise the long-run steady-state level of African GDP per capita due to factor inputs by 12.2%.
Higher Education and Economic Development in Africa. David Bloom, David Canning and Kevin Chan.
The World Bank, 2006
Principal factor of social mobility
More education leads to:
Dr. Nikolaus Lobkowicz
Citado por Olmos, L. “Algunas ideas sobre la Universidad Humanista”. Junio 2003.
A new type of students
It is a beautiful day. I want you playing outside
¿Sequential? Multi-task?
%
YES
NO
37
63
010203040506070
YESNO
Source: Market Facts/TeleNation for GTE Directories. USA Today. Sep. 24-98
Pew Internet & American Life: US educators not Net-savvy Aug 14 2002: A new study from Pew Internet & American Life indicates that 78 percent of middle and high school students in the US use the Internet.
However, most American teenagers claim that educators often don’t know how, don’t want, or aren’t able to use online tools to help them learn or enrich their studies.
@fmarmole Email: @[email protected]
@fmarmole Email: @[email protected]
In the future, work will be based on the principle of “adjustment”: intelligent individuals able to combine education, interests and skills in order to become a sort of unipersonal multifunctional team.
Success will depend on the ability to “adjust”: to creatively develop or modify skills and knowledge
Bio-systems Engineer Performance technologist Visual Ergonomics Psycho-linguistic Cyber-librarian Bio-manufacturing Geo-environmentalist MKT Information Architect
...or from the present?
Tissue Engineer
Data Miner
Pharmer
Genetic Engineer
Knowledge Engineer
Ethno-Epidemiologist-Musician
Skills (lack of ), as a major obstacle for development
Need for soft skills and high cognitive skills, in addition to good technical skills.
Limited incentives for change in developing skills
Improvement needed: Incentives Capacity building Information
http://www.worldbank.org
Graduates required in today’s world
Technical Skills
Sound humanistic preparation General Education Attitudes vs. skills
Fuente: José A. López Maldonado
Algo más… Aprender a:
0-5 6-11 12-18 19-29 30+
Resolucion de problemas X X
Resistencia X X
Motivacion X X
Control X X X
Trabajo en equipo X X
Iniciativa X X X X
Confianza X X X
Etica X X
Fuente: Guerra y Modecki (forthcoming), Social-Emotional Skills Development Across the Life Span: PRACTICE, The World Bank
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3. Employers’ reports of skill and non-skill needs and constraints (employer survey)
a. Occupation (ISCO) b. Education required for job (ISCED) c. Cognitive requirements (learning, reading,
writing, math, problem solving, IT use) d. Interpersonal demands e. Physical demands, heavy technology use
a. Education level (ISCED) b. Field of study, TVET, apprentice, certificates c. Performance level (reading test scores) d. Reading, writing, math, IT use outside work
World Bank STEP Surveys Measures with as much detail as feasible:
1. Skill stocks of people inside and outside labor force (supply)
2. Skills people use at work (skills jobs demand)
STEP samples
• Urban households (mostly)
• Random sample, working age (age 15-64)
• Background survey + reading assessment (some countries, based on PIAAC)
• Separate employer survey (some countries)
7. Bolivia (n=1,206)
8. Colombia
9. Armenia (n=972)
10. Georgia (n=906)
11. Macedonia (n=1,751)
12. Ukraine (n=941)
1. Ghana (n=2,070)
2. Kenya (n=1,956)
3. China—Yunnan (n=1,268)
4. Lao (n=1,283)
5. Sri Lanka (n=579)
6. Vietnam (n=2,183)
12 countries, almost all major regions (2012-2013)
Key points
Many ways to compare workers and jobs—resist simple generalities
Perhaps necessary, but not clear that manufacturing jobs require high skills
Job market woes may reflect job market problems, not problems with the education system Better education & training no guarantee of more & better jobs
Education system and job market are related, but two distinct institutional arenas with their own drivers
In themselves, education & training don’t create jobs Demand for labor derived from demand for products & services Skills one ingredient of complex mix of factors affecting employment, not cure-all Low employment: deficient demand or mismatch?
Measure person and job characteristics on same scale if possible to permit direct person-job comparisons (not always possible, e.g. test scores)
…National level changes are required but not sufficient…
…Tertiary Education Institutions need to embrace the change themselves.
Elliot Masie, President - The Masie Center
“While the ship is sinking –says the captain – the first priority is to save the crew, next is to avoid problems while the ship continues to sink, the third priority is to repair the ship, and lastly, the fourth priority, if time permits, is to save the passengers”
Arthur Levine, president of Columbia Teachers College
Continuing doing the
sme, but waiting different results
Diversifying options, but leveling the playing field.
Assuring good quality institutions.
Making post-compulsory education and training equitable and affordable.
Targeting public resources toward programs that yield high social returns.
Using innovative approaches to retain students and ensure employable graduates.
Improving secondary education.
Increasing the autonomy and cost-efficiency of institutions and the TE systems.
Arming students with information so they make smart choices.
Embracing competition – national and global.
Fostering openness and an evidence-based culture in tertiary education.
A priority for “tomorrow”
Marginal
About money and control
Too complex
A good idea, but..
A priority for ”yesterday”
Mainstreamed
About mobility of societies
Means for better education
A critical need
What it may work in one case
There is no magic formula…
…it is not necessarily the best solution in other cases
For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple,
H. L. Mencken
…and wrong.
“ The trouble with our times is that the future is not what it used to be ”
Paul Valéry
Francisco Marmolejo Tertiary Education Coordinator
The World Bank Tel. +1 (202) 458-5927
Email: [email protected]
http://www.worldbank.org/education/tertiary
Twitter @fmarmole