sioux city - st. john catholic church deanery...diocese of sioux city diocese of sioux city proposed...

DIOCESE OF Sioux City

Diocese of Sioux City Proposed Southwest Deanery Data Report

April, 2016

Report created by PartnersEdge, LLC

PartnersEdge, LLC is a collaborative effort between

TeamWorks, International and Catholic Finance Corporation

TeamWorks, International

7037 20th Avenue S. Centerville, MN 55038

(651) 429-7340 www.teamworksintl.net

Catholic Finance Corporation

5826 Blackshire Path Inver Grove Heights, MN 55076

(651) 389-1070 www.catholicfinance.org

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1

U.S. CENSUS DEMOGRAPHICS – RACE & ETHNICITY............................................................................................................................................................ 4

U.S. CENSUS DEMOGRAPHICS – AGE .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 33

U.S. CENSUS DEMOGRAPHICS – INCOME ................................................................................................................................................................................... 51

CATHOLICITY DEMOGRAPHICS ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 56

MASS ATTENDANCE ANALYSIS.......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 62

PASTORAL LEADERSHIP ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 64

WEEKEND MASS & SACRAMENTAL LOAD ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................................................................... 66

CATHOLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS & RELIGIOUS EDUCATION PARTICIPATION ANALYSIS................................71

U.S. CENSUS DEMOGRAPHICS – SCHOOL AGE CHILDREN .............................................................................................................................................. 77

POTENTIAL STUDENT YIELD INDEX MAPPING .................................................................................................................................................................... 90

1 Diocese of Sioux City – Proposed Southwest Deanery Data Report

INTRODUCTION The Diocese of Sioux City is currently engaged in the Ministry 2025 Pastoral Planning process to:

• Energize and enliven our parishes and schools, • Best utilize priest resources, • Provide for specialized ministries, • Integrate projected demographic trends, • Provide stability in parish structure through 2025

Ministry 2025 Pastoral Planning process involves the restructuring of parish clusters and deanery boundaries to:

• 4 deaneries • 31 parish clusters with 73 parishes and 40 oratories • 23 Catholic schools

Maps 1 & 2 reflect the proposed parish clusters and proposed deanery boundary for the Southwest Deanery. The new design includes 7 parish clusters with 15 parishes and 3 oratories, and 7 Catholic schools. Further, parishes within the city of Sioux City were clustered around the city-wide Catholic school system. The clusters, as well as their proposed names are as follows:

• Sacred Heart – Sacred Heart • Holy Cross – Blessed Sacrament, St. Michael • The Cathedral – Cathedral of the Epiphany, St. Boniface, St. Joseph • Mater Dei – Immaculate Conception, Nativity

Parish cluster boundaries were created by examining the Catholic household distribution for each parish in each cluster. The goal was to capture greater than 80% of all registered households for each parish in the cluster within the parish cluster boundaries. The proposed deanery boundaries were then created based on the parish cluster boundaries. Refinements were then made to both the deanery and parish cluster boundaries so that boundary lines were fit to certain physical features such as roads. In addition, the Cathedral of the Epiphany (Sioux City) parish cluster was designated as a Hispanic shared association. The purpose of this association is

to allow parishes within the cluster to share pastors and other resources for the needs of the growing Hispanic Catholic population residing here. The Diocese of Sioux City has requested PartnersEdge, LLC to provide a detailed, deanery-wide data analysis for the region. For this analysis we combine external demographic data with internal data and information provided by the Diocese to give a more robust analysis. The external data outlined in this report includes:

• U.S. census population data • U.S. census race and ethnicity data • U.S. census age data • U.S. census income data

The external demographic includes population, age, race/ethnicity, and income data collected during the 2010 U.S. Census. In addition, external sources of data are utilized to estimate current (2015) and 5-year projected (2020) demographic data. These external sources include county-to-county migration data obtained from the Internal Revenue Service, building permits and housing start information, residential postal delivery counts obtained from the U.S. Postal Service, as well as data obtained from other ancillary sources. Demographic data displayed on individual maps is reported at the census block group level. A census block group is the smallest geographic unit used by the United States Census Bureau to report demographic data. In addition, internal data is reported and integrated into the analysis as well. This data was obtained from the Diocese of Sioux City and includes the following information:

• Priest assignment data • Registered Catholic household data • Sacrament data • Mass attendance data • Catholic student & religious education enrollment data


Map 1: Southwest Deanery


Map 2: Southwest Deanery – Sioux City


U.S. CENSUS DEMOGRAPHICS – RACE & ETHNICITY Key Findings

• Between 2010 and 2015 the total population across the Deanery grew by 1.1%

• By 2020 the total population is expected to grow another 1.3% • Between 2010 and 2015 the total population of whites declined

by 1.8% • In 2015 whites comprised 77.8% of the total population • By 2020 the total population of whites is expected to decline

another 2.0% where they will comprise 75.3% of the total population

• Between 2010 and 2015 the total population of persons of color grew by 12.3%

• In 2015 persons of colors comprised 22.2% of the total population

• By 2020 the total population of persons of color is expected to grow another 12.7% where they will comprise 24.7% of the total population

• Between 2010 and 2015 the total Hispanic population grew by 15.3%

• In 2015, Hispanics comprised 13.9% of the total population • By 2020, the total Hispanic population is expected to grow

another 15.9% where they will comprise 15.9% of the total population

Table 1 summarizes the total population residing within the deanery boundary by race and ethnicity. In 2015, the total population living here was 117,725 (Map 3). The total population has increased 1.1% since 2010, and is expected to grow another 1.3% to 119,246 by 2020 (Map 4).

In 2015, the total population of whites was 91,625, which represents 77.8% of the total population (Maps 5 & 6). Since 2010, the total population of whites declined by 1.8%. By 2020, the total population of whites is projected to decline another 2.0% to 89,827, which will represent 75.3% of the total population (Maps 7 & 8). Since 2010, the total number of persons of color has increased by 12.3% from 23,241 to 26,100. In 2015 persons of color accounted for 22.2% of the total population (Maps 9 & 10). Hispanics were the largest group, comprising 13.9% of the total population in 2015 (Maps 11 & 12). Hispanics were followed by other races (2.4%), blacks (2.3%), Asians (2.2%), and American Indians (1.5%). By 2020, the total number of persons of color is expected to grow 12.7% to 29,419 and will account for 24.7% of the total population (Maps 13 & 14). In the same time period, Hispanics are projected to grow 15.9%, where they will comprise 15.9% of the total population (Maps 15 & 16). In addition, growth is projected among blacks (9.3%), Asians (4.8%), and other races (16.1%). However, declines are projected for American Indians (5.7%). (Note – other races are those persons who identify as a race other than those listed, two or more races, or as Hawaiian/Pacific Islanders).


Map 3: 2015 Total Population by Census Block Group


Map 3A: 2015 Total Population by Census Block Group


Map 4: 2015-2020 Total Population Percent Change by Census Block Group


Map 4A: 2015-2020 Total Population Percent Change by Census Block Group


Map 5: 2015 Total White Population by Census Block Group


Map 5A: 2015 Total White Population by Census Block Group


Map 6: 2015 White Population Density by Census Block Group


Map 6A: 2015 White Population Density by Census Block Group


Map 7: 2015-2020 Total White Population Percent Change by Census Block Group


Map 7A: 2015-2020 Total White Population Percent Change by Census Block Group


Map 8: 2020 White Population Density by Census Block Group


Map 8A: 2020 White Population Density by Census Block Group


Map 9: 2015 Total Persons of Color Population by Census Block Group k


Map 9A: 2015 Total Persons of Color Population by Census Block Group k


Map 10: 2015 Persons of Color Population Density by Census Block Group


Map 10A: 2015 Persons of Color Population Density by Census Block Group


Map 11: 2015 Hispanic Population by Census Block Group


Map 11A: 2015 Hispanic Population by Census Block Group


Map 12: 2015 Hispanic Population Density by Census Block Group


Map 12A: 2015 Hispanic Population Density by Census Block Group


Map 13: 2015-2020 Persons of Color Population Percent Change by Census Block Group


Map 13A: 2015-2020 Persons of Color Population Percent Change by Census Block Group


Map 14: 2020 Persons of Color Population Density by Census Block Group


Map 14A: 2020 Persons of Color Population Density by Census Block Group


Map 15: 2015-2020 Hispanic Population Percent Change by Census Block Group k


Map 15A: 2015-2020 Hispanic Population Percent Change by Census Block Group k


Map 16: 2020 Hispanic Population Density by Census Block Group k


Map 16A: 2020 Hispanic Population Density by Census Block Group Bl k G


U.S. CENSUS DEMOGRAPHICS – AGE Key Findings

• The fastest growing age cohort across the Deanery are those ages 65 and older

• Between 2010 and 2015 the total population of those aged 65 and older grew by 9.6%

• By 2020 the total population of those aged 65 and older is expected to grow another 15.3%

• Currently, the largest generational group in the Deanery is Generation Y(Millenials) who comprise 25.4% of the total population

• By 2020, Generation Y(Millenials) will still be the largest generational group in the Deanery and comprise 25.1% of the total population

Table 2 summarizes the total population residing within the Deanery by different age groups. If we summarize this data even further into 4 separate age groups of 0–19 year olds, 20–44 year olds, 45-64 year olds, and those ages 65 and older, we find that the total population for these particular groups in 2015 was 32,988; 36,988; 30,020; and 17,729, respectively (Maps 17-20). Thus, 20-44 year olds made up the largest share of the current population (31.4%) followed by 0-19 year olds and 45-64 year olds who comprise 28.0% and 25.5% of the population, respectively. Those ages 65 and older make up the remaining 15.1% of the current population. Since 2010, the total populations of those ages 0-19 has declined by 3.4%, while those ages 20-44, 45-64 and 65 and older grew by 2.1%, 0.2%, and 9.6%, respectively. Five-year projections show that those ages 20-44 and 45-64 will decline (0.7% and 3.9%, respectively), while 0-19 year olds and those aged 65 and older are projected to grow (0.8% and 15.3%, respectively – Maps 21-24).

Those aged 65 and older is the only age group that will see an increase in the overall share of the total population between 2015 and 2020. By 2020, those 65 and older will comprise 17.1% of the total population – up from 15.1% in 2015. Meanwhile, those ages 0-19 will comprise a slightly smaller share of the total population (27.9% from 28.0% in 2015), as will 20-44 year olds (30.8% from 31.4%), and 45-64 year olds (24.2% from 25.5%). Further, the median age has been steadily increasing within the Deanery. In 2010 the overall median age stood at 36.3. In 2015 the median age was 36.9, and by 2020 it is expected to increase 1.6% to 37.5. These trends reflect the overall trends seen throughout the rest of the country as the nation’s baby boom generation enters into retirement years.

Another way of examining population age dynamics is by grouping different age ranges by their generational category. In general, each generation has different likes, dislikes, and attributes. A person’s birth date may not always be indicative of their generational characteristics, but as a common group they have similarities. In the United States there are currently 6 living generations categorized by birth date. Here, we combined the oldest 2 generations into 1 category to form 5 generational groups using birth dates and names as recognized by most demographers. Other common names are given in parentheses. Table 3 summarizes the total population residing within the Archdiocese by these different generational groups. The birth dates and names of each generational group reported on in this analysis are as follows:

2000-Present: Generation Z (New Silent Generation) 1980-2000: Generation Y (Millennials) 1965-1979: Generation X 1946-1964: Baby Boomers 1900-1945: G.I./Silent Generation (Greatest Generation)


Map 17: 2015 Total Population Ages 0-19 by Census Block Group Bl k G


Map 17A: 2015 Total Population Ages 0-19 by Census Block Group Bl k G


Map 18A: 2015 Total Population Ages 20-44 by Census Block Group k


Map 19A: 2015 Total Population Ages 45-64 by Census Block Group k


Map 20: 2015 Total Population Ages 65 & Older by Census Block Group Bl k G


Map 20A: 2015 Total Population Ages 65 & Older by Census Block Group Bl k G


Map 21: 2015-2020 Total Population Percent Change (Ages 0-19) by Census Block Group Bl k G


Map 21A: 2015-2020 Total Population Percent Change (Ages 0-19) by Census Block Group k


Map 22: 2015-2020 Total Population Percent Change (Ages 20-44) by Census Block Group G


Map 22A: 2015-2020 Total Population Percent Change (Ages 20-44) by Census Block Group G


Map 23: 2015-2020 Total Population Percent Change (Ages 45-64) by Census Block Group


Map 23A: 2015-2020 Total Population Percent Change (Ages 45-64) by Census Block Group G


Map 24: 2015-2020 Total Population Percent Change (Ages 65 & Older) by Census Block Group G


Map 24A: 2015-2020 Total Population Percent Change (Ages 65 & Older) by Census Block Group


U.S. CENSUS DEMOGRAPHICS – INCOME Key Findings

• In 2015, the median household income across the Deanery was $45,885

• By 2020, the median household income is projected to grow 15.1% to $52,805

Table 4 summarizes the total number of households residing in the deanery boundary by different median household income ranges. It should be noted that the median household income range does not reflect the actual income of specific households, but instead is based on the particular geographic region in which each household resides. In this case the income data is summarized by census block groups. Thus, each household residing in a particular census block group is assigned the same median household income value. In addition, the U.S. census defines a household as all people who occupy a housing unit regardless of relationship. Thus, a household may consist of a person living alone or multiple unrelated individuals or families living together, whereas a family is defined as two or more people (one of whom is the householder) related by birth, marriage, or adoption residing in the same housing unit. In 2015, the total number of households residing within the deanery boundary was 45,760. The median household income among these households was $45,885 (Map 25). By 2020, it is projected that the total number of households residing within the deanery boundary will grow 1.5% to 46,451. In the same time period the median household income will grow 15.1% to $52,805 (Map 26).


Map 25: 2015 Median Household Income by Census Block Group


Map 25A: 2015 Median Household Income by Census Block Group


Map 26: 2015-2020 Median Household Income Percent Change by Census Block Group


Map 26A: 2015-2020 Median Household Income Percent Change by Census Block


CATHOLICITY DEMOGRAPHICS Key Findings

• Between 2008 and 2015 the total number of Catholic households registered at parishes across the Deanery has declined 7.5% from 6,970 to 6,445

• In 2015, approximately 89.3% of all registered Catholic households reside within the Deanery boundary

• In 2015 the percentage of Catholic households residing within the Deanery boundary is approximately 12.7%

Since 2008, the total number of Catholic households registered at parishes located within the Deanery has declined from 6,970 to 6,445 (Chart 1 & Table 5). This represents an overall decline rate of 7.5%. This decline rate contradicts that experienced by the overall population reported by the U.S. Census for the Deanery in the same time period (1.1% increase in the overall population). It should be noted that for this analysis we use the term ‘household’ rather than ‘family’ as they are defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. The U.S. Census defines a household as “all people who occupy a housing unit regardless of relationship. A household may consist of a person living alone or multiple unrelated individuals or families living together”, whereas a family is defined as “two or more people related by birth, marriage, or adoption residing in the same housing unit.” Thus, by these definitions, a family is always counted as a household but a household is not necessarily counted as a family.

In 2015, there were 6,445 Catholic households registered at parishes throughout the Deanery. By performing a spatial analysis in a Geographic Information System (GIS), it was determined that 5,753 out of the 6,445 current registered Catholic households affiliated with a parish in the Deanery reside within the Deanery boundary (Map 27). This represents 89.3% of all registered Catholic households. Further,

there are an additional 66 registered Catholic households residing within the Deanery boundary who are registered with a parish in the Diocese that is outside of this Deanery. Thus, there are a total of 5,819 registered Catholic households residing within the Deanery boundary. In 2015 the U.S. Census reported a total of 45,760 households living within the Deanery boundary. If we compare U.S. census figures with all registered Catholic households we calculate the percentage of Catholic households living within the Deanery boundary to be approximately 12.7% (Map 28).

6,9706,900

6,712

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Chart 1 - Historical Registered Catholic Households


Map 27: 2015 Registered Catholic Household Distribution


Map 27A: 2015 Registered Catholic Household Distribution


Map 28: 2015 Percent Registered Catholics by Census Block Group


Map 28A: 2015 Percent Registered Catholics by Census Block Group


MASS ATTENDANCE ANALYSIS Key Findings

• Mass attendance has declined -22.6% between 2008 and 2015, while the total number of registered Catholic households have declined -7.5% in the same time period

• Mass attendance has decreased as a percentage of the total number of attendees versus the total number of registered parishioners from 72.2% in 2008 to 60.5% in 2015

• Spanish Mass attendees comprised approximately 21.7% of all mass attendees across the Deanery in 2015

• In 2015, Spanish Mass attendees were most prominent in the following parish(es) (as a % of all mass attendees in the parish): o Cathedral of the Epiphany (Sioux City) – 77.5%

Table 6 reflects the historical weekend mass attendance figures across the Deanery. The weekend mass attendance figures reported here were collected for the entire month of November between the years 2008 and 2015. This data is represented by both the total number of weekend mass attendees for the month, as well as by the total number of attendees as a percentage of the total number of registered parishioners. The tables are organized by the proposed parish cluster design. The total number of individual, registered parishioners was calculated by multiplying the total number of registered Catholic households by the average household size as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau for this region. In this case, the average household size is 2.51 individuals per household. Mass attendance figures and registered Catholic household data were obtained from the Diocese of Sioux City.


PASTORAL LEADERSHIP ANALYSIS Key Findings

• The age range of priests currently serving at parishes within the Deanery ranges from 35 to 69 with a median age of 55

• If we assume that a priest is eligible for retirement when they reach age 70, we find that there are 0 of 11 priests in the Deanery that would be eligible to retire today if they chose to do so

• Within 10 years, 3 of 11 or 27.3% priests serving parishes within the Deanery will be eligible to retire assuming they will be eligible for retirement once they reach age 70

Chart 2 shows the age distribution of the 11 active pastors currently serving parishes within the Deanery under the proposed Deanery design.. Table 7 lists each pastor along with their current assignment and current age (through April, 2016). The age range of pastors currently serving at parishes within the Deanery is 35 to 69, and the median age is 55. If we assume that a pastor is eligible for retirement when they reach age 70, we find that there are 0 of 11 pastors in the Deanery that would be eligible to retire today if they chose to do so. Within 10 years, we find that the age range of pastors will be 45 to 79, and the median age will be 65. In addition, within 10 years, 3 of 11 pastors serving parishes within the Deanery will be eligible to retire assuming they will be eligible for retirement once they reach age 70.

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Chart 2 - Age Ranges of Current Active Pastors Serving Parishes


WEEKEND MASS & SACRAMENTAL LOAD ANALYSIS Key Findings

• Between 2012 and 2014 the total number of sacraments administered across the Deanery declined by 2.4% from 1,580 to 1,542

• Declines in sacraments were seen among baptisms 15.9%, first communions 6.8%, weddings 5.3% and funerals 8.2%, while the total number of confirmations grew by 19.9%

• In 2010 the baptism to funeral ratio was 1.57, and in 2014 it was 1.44

Chart 3 and Table 8 shows the total number of sacraments received at parishes across the Deanery from 2012 through 2014. The sacraments reported here include Baptisms, First Communions, Confirmations, Weddings and Funerals. In 2012 the total sacraments received at all parishes was 1,580, and in 2014 the total number of sacraments received was 1,542. This represents a decline of 2.4% over 3 years. Deanery-wide, declines were seen in baptisms 15.9%, first communions 6.8%, weddings 5.3% and funerals 8.2%, while the total number of confirmations grew by 19.9%. A revealing statistic is the ratio of the total number of baptisms to the total number of funerals. This ratio is a rough indicator of the parishioner household demographic patterns of a particular parish, deanery or diocese. Ideally a parish, deanery or diocese would like to see this figure greater than one, and in most cases, much greater than one. Deanery-wide in 2012 this ratio was 1.57. In 2014 this ratio was 1.444.

In addition, sacrament and mass loading index scores were created based on a sacramental loading analysis. The sacrament and mass loading analysis ranks sacraments and weekend masses on a diocesan basis to estimate and compare the amount of time each priest(s) spends on administering sacraments and masses annually, thus creating a process for measuring sacrament load. Weekend masses and sacraments were evaluated by the typical number of hours spent performing and preparing for each service and a formula was created to create a sacramental loading index score. This value was then divided by the total number of full time equivalents (FTE’s) for each parish or set of parishes. This score was then normalized on a scale of 0 to 100, and a map of proportional symbols were developed to better represent the number of hours each parish spends performing sacraments and holding weekend mass (Table 8 & Map 29).

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Chart 3 - Historical SacramentsBaptisms First Communions Confirmations Weddings Funerals


It should be noted that the sacramental loading scores calculated here were based on the total number of sacraments administered over the past 3 years for each pastor assignment cluster. Also, full time equivalents for each parish cluster were based on the total number of pastors, administrators, and parochial vicars assigned to each cluster (as reported in Table 4) with the assumption that each of these positions corresponds to 1 FTE.

The typical number of hours spent preparing for each sacrament and weekend mass was integrated into the analysis as such:

• Weekend Masses – 3 hours • Weddings – 13 hours • Funerals – 12 hours • Baptisms – 2 hours • Communions - 1 hour (per individual) • Confirmations – 1 hour (per individual)

The highest score in the Diocese was assigned to the Carroll-Glidden-Lidderdale cluster in the Southeast Deanery.


Map 29: Weekend Mass & Sacramental Loading Scores


Map 29A: Weekend Mass & Sacramental Loading Scores


CATHOLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS & RELIGIOUS EDUCATION PARTICIPATION ANALYSIS

Key Findings • Between school year 2010/2011 and 2015/2016, total PK-12

Catholic school enrollment declined 2.5% from 1,695 to 1,652 • Student enrollment declined among grades K-8 (9.3%), but

grew among grades 9-12 (1.1%) • By school year 2020/2021, total PK-12 Catholic school

enrollment is projected to decline 8.4% from 1,652 to 1,514 • Student enrollment is estimated to decline in grades K-8 (3.3%)

and 9-12 (17.0%) • Between 2004 and 2013, the total number of resident births in

selected counties across the Deanery declined by 7.1% from 1,737 to 1,613

• Between 2004 and 2013 births declined across Monona County (29.1%) and Woodbury County (5.8%)

• In 2014, approximately 16.4% of all 6 – 18 year olds across the Deanery are enrolled in Catholic schools or participate in religious education programs

This analysis reports historical and projected student enrollments for Catholic Schools located within the Deanery including:

• Danbury Catholic (Danbury) • Holy Cross (Sioux City) • Mater Dei (Sioux City) • Sacred Heart (Sioux City) • Bishop Heelan High (Sioux City)

Historical enrollment data was obtained from the Diocese of Sioux City. Five-year enrollment projections for Prekindergarten and Kindergarten were derived by utilizing resident birth data obtained from the Iowa Department of Public Health Bureau of Health Statistics. Projected enrollments for grades 1 through 12 were then calculated by employing a cohort survival methodology. With this method, survival ratios were calculated based on historical student enrollments by dividing the total number of students per grade in a given year by the total number of students in the preceding grade in the previous year. An average of long-term and short-term survival ratios was then utilized to project future 1st through 12th graders. In the school year 2015-2016, there were 1,652 total students in grades PK - 12 enrolled at Catholic schools located within the Deanery (Map 30 & Table 9). In addition, the total K-8 enrollment was 1,032, and total high school enrollment was 534. Since school year 2010-2011, overall PK-12 enrollment at has declined 2.5% from 1,695 to 1,652. In the same time period declines were seen among grades K-8 (9.3%), while grades 9-12 grew (1.1%). By employing the student projection methodology described previously, it is estimated that the total PK-12 enrollment across the Deanery will decline 8.4% from 1,652 to 1,514 by school year 2020-2021. In addition, K-8 enrollment is expected to decline 3.3% from 1,032 to 998, and grades 9-12 are projected to decline 17.0% from 534 to 443. Declining enrollment at the different grade levels, especially grades PK-8, have likely been impacted by the declining number of resident births in the region. The total number of births in a particular region is a strong indicator of future prekindergarten and kindergarten enrollment. Table 10 & Chart 4 reports resident births from 2004 through 2013 for selected counties across the Deanery. Between 2004 and 2013 the total number of resident births across these counties declined 7.1%. Declines in births were seen in Monona County (29.1%) and Woodbury County


(5.8%). This fluctuation in births had a significant impact on Catholic student enrollments, and will most likely continue to do so in the near future.

Table 11 reports 2014 religious education participation figures for all parishes in the Deanery. Thus, if we factor in the total number of Catholic students we find that the total number of students either enrolled in Catholic school or participating in religious education programs in 2014 was 3,426. If we relate this to school-age census data (6 – 18 year olds), we find that the Deanery market share capture of 6 – 18 year olds in 2014 was approximately 16.4%.


Map 30: Catholic Student Distribution


Map 30A: Catholic Student Distribution


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Chart 4 - Historical Resident Births

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U.S. CENSUS DEMOGRAPHICS – SCHOOL AGE CHILDREN Key Findings

• Currently, 0-14 year olds comprise 21.1% of the total population in the Deanery

• Since 2010, the total number of 0 -14 year olds has declined 2.1%, where all school-age groups have experienced declines (0-4, 5-9, and 10-14 year olds declined 3.3%, 0.6% and 2.4%, respectively)

• By 2020, it is estimated that 0-14 year olds will grow 0.7%. • By 2020, declines are projected for 0-4 year olds (0.7%) and 5-9

year olds (1.5%), while 10-14 year olds are projected to grow (4.4%)

• By 2020 it is estimated that 0-14 year olds will comprise 21.1% of the total population in the Deanery, down from 21.0% in 2015

Table 12 summarizes the total population of school-age children residing within the Deanery into 3 separate age groups of 0–4 year olds, 5-9 year olds, and 10-14 year olds. Those ages 0 – 4 represent future students, as well as potential prekindergarten students. Those age 5 – 14 generally correlate with kindergarten through 8th graders. In 2015, the total population for 0-4, 5-9, and 10-14 year olds was 8,445, 8,345, and 8,056; respectively (Maps 31-32). Currently, 0-14 year olds comprise 21.1% of the total population in the Deanery, where 0-4, 5-9, and 10-14 year olds comprise 7.2%, 7.1% and 6.8%, respectively. Since 2010, the total number of 0 -14 year olds has declined 2.1%, where all school-age groups have experienced declines (0-4, 5-9, and 10-14 year olds declined 3.3%, 0.6% and 2.4%, respectively). By 2020, it is estimated that 0-14 year olds will grow 0.7% (Maps 33-34). Declines are projected for 0-4 year olds (0.7%) and 5-9 year olds (1.5%), while 10-14 year olds are projected to grow (4.4%).

In addition, by 2020 it is estimated that 0-14 year olds will comprise 21.0% of the total population in the Deanery, down slightly from 21.1% in 2015 (Maps 35-36). Declines in the overall share of the population are projected for 0-4 year olds (7.0% from 7.2% in 2015) and 5-9 year olds (6.9% from 7.1% in 2015), while the overall share of 10-14 year olds is projected to increase (7.1% from 6.8% in 2015).


Map 31: 2015 Total Population Ages 0 - 4 by Census Block Group k


Map 31A: 2015 Total Population Ages 0 - 4 by Census Block Group k


Map 32: 2015 Total Population Ages 5 - 14 by Census Block Group k


Map 32A: 2015 Total Population Ages 5 - 14 by Census Block Group k


Map 33: 2015-2020 Total Population Ages 0 - 4 Percent Change by Census Block Group k


Map 33A: 2015-2020 Total Population Ages 0 - 4 Percent Change by Census Block Group k


Map 34: 2015-2020 Total Population Ages 5 - 14 Percent Change by Census Block Group k


Map 34A: 2015-2020 Total Population Ages 5 - 14 Percent Change by Census Block


Map 35: 2020 Ages 0 - 4 Population Density by Census Block Group k


Map 35A: 2020 Ages 0 - 4 Population Density by Census Block Group k


Map 36: 2020 Ages 5 - 14 Population Density by Census Block Group Bl k G


Map 36A: 2020 Ages 5 - 14 Population Density by Census Block Group k


POTENTIAL STUDENT YIELD INDEX MAPPING

It is the intention of the Diocese of Sioux City to increase Catholic student enrollment and religious education participation in the future. In order to do this it is useful to analyze, identify and target future geographic areas that will most likely produce high student yields. A potential student yield index analysis based on projected demographic patterns was performed for the Deanery. By appending demographic census data and catholicity data at the block group level in the Deanery, individual indices were created at the block group level for each of the following variables: projected median household income, percent catholicity, projected age under 5 population, and projected age 5-14 population. The index values ranged from 1-5 and each variable was assigned to the appropriate range; 1 indicating the least likely range to yield students, and 5 indicating the most likely. These variables were then overlaid and geospatially added together using a geographical information system (GIS) to create a spatial layer with index values ranging from 4 - 20 (see inset to the right). This new layer was then re-classified into 5 new ranges. Low index values were assigned to a low and moderately low potential classification, middle index values were grouped into a moderate potential classification, and high index values were grouped into a moderately high and high potential classification. This layer was then mapped (Map 37) to reflect the spatial representation or ‘Sweet-Spot Analysis’ of the 5 new classes. Map 38 is similar to that of Map 37; however, Map 38 was based on patterns of projected populations of 0-4 and 5-14 year olds only. The sweet-spot analysis reveals that future Catholic, student populations will most likely come from those areas in light red and red.

Those areas in beige will most likely produce moderate student yields, while those areas in light blue and blue will most likely result in lower student yields.


Map 37: Sweet Spot Analysis #1 k


Map 37A: Sweet Spot Analysis #1 Bl k G


Map 38: Sweet Spot Analysis #2 k


Map 38A: Sweet Spot Analysis #2 k

sioux city - st. john catholic church deanery...diocese of sioux city diocese of sioux city proposed...

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