sinergia final
TRANSCRIPT
Pierre Girard
CPP - UFMT
Adaptation challenges in the Paraguay River Basin: Sinergia’s
results
BrazilBoliviaParaguayArgentina
Climate is already changing (has already
changed) in the PB.
The number of events with precipitation excess increased
SPI ≥ 1,28
Garcia & Buraschi, 2011
The number of events with precipitation deficit increased
SPI ≤ -1,28
Garcia & Buraschi, 2011
Increase in Intense events frequency 1961-2000
Intense rainfall
Sampaio, 2012
Consecutive dry days
Are we prepared to intense events (right
now and in the future)?
• How to reduce vulnerability and adapt to CC? Ie:–Can we reduce the severity of the
impacts ?–Can we cope better with severe
impacts?
How to cope with climate variability and change?
SINERGIA• The aim of the project were
– to provide the social actors of the basin with technical information about climate change impacts, actual vulnerability (and risks) to climate variability and technologies to better cope with the impacts of climate hazards
– To have the basin social actors discuss climate risks, vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies
• The project activities started in February 2009 and end in November 2012
• Formulation of the general project framework by CPP science team
• Specifics (research themes, assessment of main climate impacts, vulnerabilities and construction of adaptation measures) defined by social actors
• Implementation and monitoring of the project carried out by scientists and social actors
Sinergia: A poject built by science and social actors
Research projects on
- Climate change- Climate impacts on hydrology
and civil engineering- Actual risks to biodiversity- Social vulnerability to climate- Institutional vulnerability to
CC- Adaptation technologies
1. Co-production of a VIAM state of the art in each BP country
2. Co-production of adaptation vs. impacts and vulnerability matrixes taking into account science network results
3. Co-production of recommendations to BP decision makers
Sinergia’s structureScience network AS network
Who participates
• Researchers from the basin and from abroad
• Social actors of the basin:
– Governments,
– Private sector,
– Socio-environmental NGOs
• The Sinergia network (academics + social actors) ~ 160 individuals
• Funding CNPq ~ 2 mi R$ (1 mi $)
Preliminary (and some final) results: social sciences and social actors
network
An international network
• Mobilization: launch an idea that requires appropriation and redefinition by the actors
• Construct: develop/implement a common project in which each actors sees its participation and benefit
• Maintain: communicate, build capacity, co-produce results
• Go forward: plan how to use the result with the network actors– current challenge
BrazilArgentinaParaguayBoliviaOthers
Mobilized ~250Network ~160
Brazil
Bolivia
Paraguay
Argentina
Others
Challenge - enhance international collaboration
Academy
Private sector
NGOs
Government
Sinergia coordination
Challenge – inter-sector collaboration
Climate change in the Paraguay River Basin
- Temperature increases
- Rainfall intensity increases
- Intensity or frequence of extreme events increases -heat waves, storms, inundations, long droughts
- Already known impacts: agriculture loss, urban inundations, health hazards, risks to biodiversity, landslides ...
~1.1 Mi km2
4 paísesArgentinaBolíviaBrazilParaguai
Bacia do Paraguai
Pantanal
Cuiabá
Present ecological risks for biodiversity of aquatic systems
WWF, TNC. CPP, 2012
ERI are being calculated for +2oC and +4oC scenarios as climate is a direct component of the ERI. It affects fire – one of the main stressor-, but also influences the sensitivity of the ecosystem (how it responds to a stressor).
Degree of exposure of
urban populations to
climatic disasters - UPB
Preliminary map, Verissimo, 2012
Very lowLowLow – MediumMediumMedium – highHighVery high
Institutional vulnerabilities- Brazil
Legislation is still focused mainly on mitigation and little on adaptation
+Focus on the Amazon
+Institutional shortcomings such as inadequate laws. deficient
structures and agencies, lack of coordination between sectors and levels of governance
=Government and private sector give a merely peripheral attention to climate change, mitigation and adaptation
Preliminary, Ioris & Kirsten, 2012
Some results from the social actors network
What we identified with social actors
• 3 rounds of workshops in 4 countries involving > 150 persons between 2010 and 2012;
• We worked with 4 activity sectors related to WRs: 1. Water resources and energy2. Agribusiness3. Forest and biodiversity4. Health and cities
→Vulnerable areas→Possible climatic impacts→Adaptation measures (and sometimes mitigation
measures as well)
Sanitation - deficientPopulation – migration/rapid growthEndemics (dengue, malaria and others)Health services – deficient/insufficient
1. Salta & Formosa Province, Argentina
2. Department of Tarija, Bolivia
3. Dept of Potosi & Chuquisaca, Bolivia
4. Dept of Santa Cruz, Bolivia
5. Mato Grosso, Brazil
6. Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil
7. Paraguay (whole country)
8. Dept of Alto Parana and Alto Paraguay, Paraguay
9. Dept Central and Asunción, Paraguay
Example : health and cities
Conclusions andrecommendations for the Paraguay Basin
Main risks and impacts identified in the vulnerable areas
• desertification of the “Chaco seco” mainly in Paraguay;
• economic losses (->jobs) in agriculture, cattle raising, fisheries;
• increasing food insecurity, poor population migration and physical and mental health problems;
• risk of compromising water supply in urban and rural areas;
• potential water conflicts during the dry season;
Main risks and impacts identified in the vulnerable areas
• human (health, life) and economic losses resulting from urban inundations;
• increased incidence and geographical spread of infectious diseases caused by waterborne transmission;
• saturation of local health systems due to increased intra and international migration due to climate extremes;
• physical damage to private and public property in particular housing and sanitation infrastructure and water supply.
Recommended adaptations
• promote the integrated management of WRs in the BP;
• establish an effective territorial zoning;• implement early warning systems for extreme
meteorological and hydrological events in the basin;
• protection, conservation and restoration of the upstream areas of the rivers of the basin;
• implement good agricultural practices (farming) associated with low carbon emissions;
Recommended adaptations
• adequacy of infrastructure to minimize the impacts of climate extremes;
• economic incentives to avoid deforestation and forest degradation;
• bioclimatic monitoring of specific infectious and waterborne diseases with a priority for dengue control;
• create and improve health and education services and the water sanitation infrastructures;
• systematize climate information in order to subsidize policies and projects to protect people from the harmful effects of CC.
