Simulations of Carbon Sequestration Simulations of Carbon Sequestration Potentials in Chinese Fir Forests Potentials in Chinese Fir Forests

Xiaohua Wei (Xiaohua Wei ( 魏晓华魏晓华 ))Watershed Research Chair Watershed Research Chair

University of British Columbia University of British Columbia Kelowna, BC, CanadaKelowna, BC, Canada

June 11, 2013, Guangzhou, China June 11, 2013, Guangzhou, China

Acknowledgement Acknowledgement

Dr. Juan Blanco, Universidad Pública de Navarra, Dr. Juan Blanco, Universidad Pública de Navarra, SpainSpain

OutlineOutline

Rationale and objectives Rationale and objectives Simulation approachesSimulation approaches FORECAST modelFORECAST model FORECAST application in Chinese fir forestsFORECAST application in Chinese fir forests

Rationale (1): What is C Potential?Rationale (1): What is C Potential? Definition from Chinese Academy of Sciences (C Project) Definition from Chinese Academy of Sciences (C Project)

自然林固碳潜力自然林固碳潜力 == 地带性森林碳密度地带性森林碳密度 - - 自然林平均碳密度自然林平均碳密度 人工林固碳潜力人工林固碳潜力 == 成熟人工林碳密度成熟人工林碳密度 - - 人工林平均碳密度人工林平均碳密度

I proposeI propose:: It is the difference between sustainable C density and It is the difference between sustainable C density and

current forest densitycurrent forest density It is defined in a long-term and sustainable contextIt is defined in a long-term and sustainable context An ecosystem model can help determine C potentialsAn ecosystem model can help determine C potentials

Rationale (2): Why Plantation Forests?Rationale (2): Why Plantation Forests? China is facing pressure in climate change negotiationChina is facing pressure in climate change negotiation

中国承诺中国承诺 : : 20202020年森林面积增加年森林面积增加 40004000万公顷万公顷 ,, 蓄积量增加蓄积量增加 1313亿亿立方米立方米

China is the country with the largest plantation forestsChina is the country with the largest plantation forests A big challenge is A big challenge is

Low productivity and monocultureLow productivity and monoculture For example, For example, 江西省森林覆盖率江西省森林覆盖率 60.05%,60.05%,但单位面积蓄积量只有全国但单位面积蓄积量只有全国平均水平的平均水平的 44.544.5 ％％ ; limited area for more plantations; limited area for more plantations

REDD Actions: forest carbon and ecosystem servicesREDD Actions: forest carbon and ecosystem services In short: we must find the ways to achieve high and In short: we must find the ways to achieve high and

sustainable C density, and other co-benefitssustainable C density, and other co-benefits

Rationale (3): Why Chinese Fir Forests?Rationale (3): Why Chinese Fir Forests?

Chinese fir is Chinese fir is the most important commercial forest speciesthe most important commercial forest species Severe yield decline over subsequent rotationsSevere yield decline over subsequent rotations Thus, current practices are not sustainable with limited Thus, current practices are not sustainable with limited

ecosystem servicesecosystem services Rich data and research provide an excellent opportunity Rich data and research provide an excellent opportunity

for modellingfor modelling

ObjectivesObjectives

To use the forest ecosystem model to determine To use the forest ecosystem model to determine sustainable forest practices for maintaining high and sustainable forest practices for maintaining high and sustainable forest C sequestration ability, while sustainable forest C sequestration ability, while achieving other ecological benefits in Chinese fir forestsachieving other ecological benefits in Chinese fir forests

To explore what C potentials can be achieved with the To explore what C potentials can be achieved with the determined sustainable forest practices determined sustainable forest practices

Simulation ApproachesSimulation Approaches

Historical bioassay (or yield tables) Historical bioassay (or yield tables) (e.g., (e.g., CBM, CBM, FORCARB, ATLAS)FORCARB, ATLAS)

Environmental correlationEnvironmental correlation Process simulation Process simulation (e.g., (e.g., PnET, InTEC, 3PG)PnET, InTEC, 3PG) Hybrid approach Hybrid approach (e.g., FORECAST)(e.g., FORECAST)

FORECAST: A Hybrid ApproachFORECAST: A Hybrid Approach

Developed by Professor Hamish Kimmins at Developed by Professor Hamish Kimmins at UBC in 1980’sUBC in 1980’s

It is a stand-level ecosystem model, and has It is a stand-level ecosystem model, and has been applied in various world forestsbeen applied in various world forests

It was specially designed for assessing It was specially designed for assessing sustainability of long-term productivity under sustainability of long-term productivity under various forest management practices various forest management practices

Current Applications in ChinaCurrent Applications in China

Chinese fir calibration and simulation (Bi et al. 2007)Chinese fir calibration and simulation (Bi et al. 2007) An international joint project between UBC and Zhejiang An international joint project between UBC and Zhejiang

Forestry University, 2008-2011Forestry University, 2008-2011 SpruceSpruce Massonia pineMassonia pine Broad-leave (Broad-leave ( 楠木）楠木） N deposition and acid rain effects on C in Chinese fir forestsN deposition and acid rain effects on C in Chinese fir forests

Northeast Forestry University (948 project)Northeast Forestry University (948 project) ，， 20052005 Larch forests Larch forests （（长白）长白）

Chinese Academy of Science Chinese Academy of Science (Institute of Applied Ecology) (Institute of Applied Ecology) Larch forests Larch forests （（兴安）兴安）

International Symposium of Ecosystem Modeling Zhejiang Forestry University, September 22-24 2008, with more than 40

researchers from China and Canada

FORECAST: OverviewFORECAST: Overview

Wide variety of stand types and management systemsWide variety of stand types and management systems

Uses a “Hybrid” simulation approach where historical growth data is used to Uses a “Hybrid” simulation approach where historical growth data is used to parameterize mechanistic modelparameterize mechanistic model

Growth presently limited by light and nutrients but adding climate change Growth presently limited by light and nutrients but adding climate change capability capability

Potential Net PrimaryPotential Net PrimaryProductionProduction

(Potential growth)(Potential growth)

Actual Net PrimaryActual Net PrimaryProductionProduction

(Actual growth)(Actual growth)

LitterLitterCoarse woodyCoarse woodydebrisdebrisFine rootsFine roots

Nutrient poolNutrient pool

Nutrient cyclingNutrient cycling

Potential Net PrimaryPotential Net PrimaryProductionProduction

(Potential growth)(Potential growth)

Actual Net PrimaryActual Net PrimaryProductionProduction

(Actual growth)(Actual growth)

LitterLitterCoarse woodyCoarse woodydebrisdebrisFine rootsFine roots

Nutrient poolNutrient pool

Nutrient cyclingNutrient cycling

 www.forestry.ubc.ca/ecomodels/

• Ecologically based, stand-level model for simulating the effects of alternative Ecologically based, stand-level model for simulating the effects of alternative management strategies on biophysical indicators of SFMmanagement strategies on biophysical indicators of SFM

Input data files Setup programsGraphing utility

Tabular output utility

Data set file information

Select starting ecosystem conditions

Define management activities

Ecosystem simulation module

Route ending ecosystem condition to start of next run

FORECAST: User InterfaceFORECAST: User Interface

N in Soil Solution Carried to the Next Year

FORECAST: Key FeaturesFORECAST: Key Features Empirical data on tree and plant growthEmpirical data on tree and plant growth

three quality sitesthree quality sites Ecosystem processesEcosystem processes

canopy function (photosynthesis)canopy function (photosynthesis) carbon allocation (nutrient availability)carbon allocation (nutrient availability) competition-related mortalitycompetition-related mortality nutrient cycling ratesnutrient cycling rates

Driving function: shade-corrected foliage N efficiencyDriving function: shade-corrected foliage N efficiency Nutrient feedbackNutrient feedback

FORECAST Application: FORECAST Application: MethodologyMethodology Meta-data analysisMeta-data analysis

To define the observed range in carbon storage in tropic forestsTo define the observed range in carbon storage in tropic forests For broadleaves: 38 documents, 138 sites; for conifers: 51/ 160 sites For broadleaves: 38 documents, 138 sites; for conifers: 51/ 160 sites

Monte-Carlo simulations with FORECAST:Monte-Carlo simulations with FORECAST: 200 Monte Carlo projections for traditional management 200 Monte Carlo projections for traditional management 200 Monte Carlo projections for sustainable forest 200 Monte Carlo projections for sustainable forest

managementmanagement Probability distributions of site quality, planting density, rotation length Probability distributions of site quality, planting density, rotation length

and utilization level were createdand utilization level were created for both of the above sets for both of the above sets

FORECAST Application: FORECAST Application: ValidationValidation

Chinese fir Phoebe

FORECAST Application: FORECAST Application: Simulations Simulations

Establishing initial eco-state filesEstablishing initial eco-state files Defining management options (rotation Defining management options (rotation

length, density, utilization level, mixture, length, density, utilization level, mixture, thinning etc.)thinning etc.)

Selecting output indicators Selecting output indicators • productivity / carbonproductivity / carbon• decomposition litter decomposition litter • available soil N and nutrient removalavailable soil N and nutrient removal

FORECAST Application: FORECAST Application: SimulationsSimulationsProbability distribution for scenarios

FORECAST Application: FORECAST Application: ResultsResultsMeta-data analysis

FORECAST Application: FORECAST Application: ResultsResultsMeta-data analysis

FORECAST Application: FORECAST Application: ResultsResultsMeta-data and simulations

FORECAST Application: FORECAST Application: ResultsResultsSimulations

FORECAST Application: FORECAST Application: Implications of ResultsImplications of Results

The sustainable forestry practices can raise carbon The sustainable forestry practices can raise carbon stocks in 2050 by 260.22 TgC in Chinese fir stocks in 2050 by 260.22 TgC in Chinese fir plantation. If applied to all new plantation types in plantation. If applied to all new plantation types in China, stored carbon could further increase by 1,482 China, stored carbon could further increase by 1,482 TgC in 2050. TgC in 2050.

Such an increase would offset 1.9% of China´s Such an increase would offset 1.9% of China´s annual emissions in 2010.annual emissions in 2010.

FORECAST Application: FORECAST Application: ConclusionsConclusions

BroadleavesBroadleaves plantations have significantly higher plantations have significantly higher ecosystem C values than conifer plantations.ecosystem C values than conifer plantations.

Sustainable forest management had on average Sustainable forest management had on average 67.5% more ecosystem C than current forest 67.5% more ecosystem C than current forest management in Chinese fir forests management in Chinese fir forests (potential)(potential)

More importantly, this C sequestration capability is More importantly, this C sequestration capability is more sustainable in the long term more sustainable in the long term (sustainability)(sustainability)

Final RemarkFinal Remark

Sustainable forestry can be successfully used to Sustainable forestry can be successfully used to maximize climate change mitigation effortsmaximize climate change mitigation efforts

More C increase if sustainable forestry practices were More C increase if sustainable forestry practices were combined with other practices not examined herecombined with other practices not examined here

Models can be useful tools if used properlyModels can be useful tools if used properly

Thank you and welcome to visit Okanagan, CanadaThank you and welcome to visit Okanagan, Canada