simple sensitivity analysis of community land model using data from sleepers river watershed

Simple Sensitivity Analysis Simple Sensitivity Analysis of Community Land Model of Community Land Model using data from Sleepers using data from Sleepers

River WatershedRiver Watershed

HydroclimatologyHydroclimatology

Spring 2004Spring 2004

Dana Derickson, Sarah Doyle, Kelley Dana Derickson, Sarah Doyle, Kelley Keese, Erick Leuro, Scout SkillmanKeese, Erick Leuro, Scout Skillman

IntroductionIntroduction

• Sensitivity analysis on model created for Sensitivity analysis on model created for the Sleepers River watershed in Vermontthe Sleepers River watershed in Vermont• Vegetation ( Vegetation ( ↑, ↓↑, ↓ in LAI; grasses in LAI; grasses →→ trees) trees)• Soils (clay, sand)Soils (clay, sand)• Increasing Temperature by 2 degreesIncreasing Temperature by 2 degrees

• 1-D model representative of a 1-D model representative of a subwatershed (8.4 kmsubwatershed (8.4 km22))

• Characterized by C3 arctic and non-arctic Characterized by C3 arctic and non-arctic grasses with a maximum LAI of 3.5 and grasses with a maximum LAI of 3.5 and silty soilssilty soils

Forcing DataForcing Data

• 5 years of forcing data from 1969 – 19745 years of forcing data from 1969 – 1974

• Hourly intervalsHourly intervals• Air temperatureAir temperature• PrecipitationPrecipitation• Specific HumiditySpecific Humidity• Wind speedWind speed• Incoming solar radiationIncoming solar radiation• Incoming longwave radiationIncoming longwave radiation

• Focused on the year of 1973Focused on the year of 1973

Temperature

200

220

240

260

280

300

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

K

Precipitation

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

m s

-1

Monthly Average Climate Data Monthly Average Climate Data

Sleepers River Watershed (1973)Sleepers River Watershed (1973)

Downward Longwave and Shortwave Radiation

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

wat

ts m

-2ShortLong

Wind SpeedEast - West, North - South

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

m s

-1Monthly Average Climate Data Monthly Average Climate Data


Specific Humidity

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

kg/k

g-1

Monthly Average Climate Data Monthly Average Climate Data


CLM ModelCLM Model

Predicted OutcomePredicted Outcomebased on the energy budgetbased on the energy budget

((↑ S - ↓S) – (↑ L - ↓L) = LE + SE + G↑ S - ↓S) – (↑ L - ↓L) = LE + SE + G

• C1: No Veg

• ↓ Rn b/c albedo ↑ with absence of canopy

• ↓ SH and G b/c less Rn

• ↑ in ground E flux but no T flux nor canopy E→ ↓ LE ↑ SMC

predicted R n LE SH G SMC

No Veg - - - - +LAI doubled + + - + -LAI halved - - + - +Trees + + + + -Clay + + - + +Sand - - + - -Temp + 2K + + + + -

Absorbed Solar RadiationAbsorbed Solar RadiationAbsorbed Solar Radiation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1/1 3/2 5/1 6/30 8/29 10/28 12/27

wat

t/m2

BaseNo VegLAI x 2LAI x 0.5claysandTreesTemp + 2

Absorbed Solar Radiation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16 7/21 7/26 7/31

wat

t/m2

Base No Veg LAI x 2LAI x 0.5 clay sandTrees Temp + 2

Average Absorbed Solar Radiation for 1973

80 85 90 95 100

BaseNoVegLAIx2

LAI/2clay

sandtreesT + 2

watt/m2

Absorbed Infrared Longwave RadiationAbsorbed Infrared Longwave RadiationNet Infrared Longwave Radiation

-60

-20

20

60

100

140

180

1/1 3/2 5/1 6/30 8/29 10/28 12/27

wat

t/m2


Net Infrared Longwave Radiation

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16 7/21 7/26 7/31

wat

t/m2


Net Infrared Longwave Radiation for 1973

0 10 20 30 40 50

Base

NoVegLAIx2

LAI/2

clay

sandtrees

T + 2

watt/m 2

Sensible Heat FluxSensible Heat FluxSensible Heat Flux

-50

0

50

100

150

200

1/1 3/2 5/1 6/30 8/29 10/28 12/27

wat

t/m2


Sensible Heat

-70

-20

30

80

130

180

7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16 7/21 7/26 7/31

wat

t/m2


Average Sensible Heat Flux for 1973

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Base

NoVegLAIx2

LAI/2

clay

sandtrees

T + 2

watt/m 2

Ground EvaporationGround Evaporation

Average Ground Evaporation for 1973

0 10 20 30 40 50

Base

NoVegLAIx2

LAI/2

clay

sandtrees

T + 2

watt/m 2

Ground Evaporation

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

1/1 3/2 5/1 6/30 8/29 10/28 12/27

wat

t/m2


Ground Evaporation

0

40

80

120

160

200

7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16 7/21 7/26 7/31

wat

t/m2


Canopy EvaporationCanopy EvaporationCanopy Evaporation

0

20

40

60

80

100

1/1 3/2 5/1 6/30 8/29 10/28 12/27

wat

t/m2


Canopy Evaporation

0

15

30

45

60

7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16 7/21 7/26 7/31

wat

t/m2

Base No VegLAI x 2 LAI x 0.5clay sandTrees Temp + 2

Average Canopy Evaporation for 1973

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Base

NoVegLAIx2

LAI/2

clay

sandtrees

T + 2

watt/m 2

Canopy TranspirationCanopy Transpiration

Average Canopy Transpiration for 1973

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Base

NoVegLAIx2

LAI/2

clay

sandtrees

T + 2

watt/m 2

Transpiration

0

20

40

60

80

1/1 3/2 5/1 6/30 8/29 10/28 12/27

wat

t/m2


Transpiration

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16 7/21 7/26 7/31

wat

t/m2


Soil Moisture ContentSoil Moisture ContentSoil Moisture

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1/1 3/2 5/1 6/30 8/29 10/28 12/27

mm

/s

Base No Veg LAI x 2LAI x 0.5 clay sandTrees

Soil Moisture

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

7/1 7/6 7/11 7/16 7/21 7/26 7/31

mm

/s


Average Soil Moisture Content

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10layer

Base NoVeg LAIx2LAI/2 clay sandtrees T + 2

Predicted vs. Actual ResultsPredicted vs. Actual Results

results R n LE SH G SMC

No Veg - + - - =LAI doubled + + = = =LAI halved - - = = =Trees + + = = =Clay = - + = +Sand - - = - -Temp + 2K - + - - =

simple sensitivity analysis of community land model using data from sleepers river watershed

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