shripadtuljapurkar · pdf filestanford ca usa assistance from jia shang, huazhong ... old...
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GlobalTrendsinPopulationAgingandLongevityRisk
Shripad TuljapurkarBiology&PopulationStudies
StanfordUniversityStanfordCAUSA
assistance from Jia Shang, Huazhong Univ, and Wenyun Zuo, Stanford Univ
KEYINDICATORS
LIFEEXPECTANCYATBIRTH,e0AGINGindividualmeasures LIFEEXPECTANCYATage65,e65
KEYINDICATORS
LIFEEXPECTANCYATBIRTH,e0AGINGindividualmeasures LIFEEXPECTANCYATage65,e65
WHATTHEINDICATORSMEAN
e0commonlyused
averagelengthoflife
e65averageremaininglifeat65
retired/older–annuity/insurance
PopulationPyramidBlue =Male,Red =Female
KEYINDICATORS
LIFEEXPECTANCYATBIRTH,e0AGINGindividualmeasures LIFEEXPECTANCYATage65,e65
POPULATIONsize&wealth
TOTALPOPULATIONSIZEscale
PER-CAPITAGDP (ppp)wealth/consumption/livingstandard
PopulationPyramidBlue =Male,Red =Female
YDR=Young/Working
ODR=Old/Working
Young0-19Working20-64
Old65+
STRUCTURALINDICATORS
YDR (YOUNG0-19)/(WORKING20-64)
ODR (OLD65+)/(WORKING20-64)
WHATSTRUCTURALINDICATORSMEAN
YDR futurelaborsupply(taxortransfercostsofyoung
capitalabsorption/productivitygrowth)
ODR retiredfraction(taxortransfercostpensions&healthcaresavings/availablecapital/annuitycosts)
ODR should increase with e0
But at what rate?
Use Total Population as Index
10 20 30 40 50
5060
7080
90Old dependency ratio VS male e0, 1980
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
e 0 m
ale
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
19801980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
5060
7080
90Old dependency ratio VS male e0, 1985
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
e 0 m
ale
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
19851980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
5060
7080
90Old dependency ratio VS male e0, 1990
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
e 0 m
ale
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
19901980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
5060
7080
90Old dependency ratio VS male e0, 1995
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
e 0 m
ale
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
19951980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
5060
7080
90Old dependency ratio VS male e0, 2000
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
e 0 m
ale
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20001980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
5060
7080
90Old dependency ratio VS male e0, 2005
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
e 0 m
ale
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20051980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
5060
7080
90Old dependency ratio VS male e0, 2010
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
e 0 m
ale
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20101980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
5060
7080
90Old dependency ratio VS male e0, 2015
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
e 0 m
ale
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20151980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
5060
7080
90Old dependency ratio VS male e0, 2020
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
e 0 m
ale
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20201980&2020
ODR and YDR change over time
Change depends on fertility, GDP
Use Per-cap GDP as Index
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio1985
Circle Size prop: GDP per capita ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of Korea
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
19851985&2015
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio1990
Circle Size prop: GDP per capita ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of Korea
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
19901985&2015
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio1995
Circle Size prop: GDP per capita ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of Korea
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
19951985&2015
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio2000
Circle Size prop: GDP per capita ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of Korea
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20001985&2015
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio2005
Circle Size prop: GDP per capita ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of Korea
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20051985&2015
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio2010
Circle Size prop: GDP per capita ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of Korea
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20101985&2015
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio2015
Circle Size prop: GDP per capita ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of Korea
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20151985&2015
A Different View: ODR & YDR
Use Total Population size as index
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio1980
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
19801980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio1985
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
●
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
19851980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio1990
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
●
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
19901980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio1995
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
●
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
19951980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio2000
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
●
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20001980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio2005
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
●
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20051980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio2010
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20101980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio2015
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
●
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20151980&2020
10 20 30 40 50
050
100
150
Old dependency ratio VS young dependency ratio2020
Circle Size prop: Total Pop ; Circle Color prop: TFR (dark = 8)ODR
YD
R
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ChinaChina, Hong Kong SARChina, Macao SARTaiwanJapanMongoliaRepublic of KoreaAfghanistan
BangladeshBhutanIndiaNepalPakistanSri LankaCambodiaIndonesia
Lao People's Democratic RepublicMalaysiaMyanmarPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet Nam
20201980&2020
