shikko nijland
Post on 21-Oct-2014
1.146 views
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
How do consumers pay in 2020 Global E-‐Commerce Summit Barcelona 2014 Shikko Nijland ([email protected]/@shikko)
2 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
ExplanaSon …… ……. ……..
Innopay: independent management consultants specialized in digital strategy and transformaSon
Digital idenSty
Payments
E-‐Business
E-‐Commerce
1. Product and pla1orm strategy
2. Innova8on Management
3. Project management and transforma8on
• Program management
• PMO support
• Change Management
• BPM/BPR
• InnovaSon strategy
• AcceleraSon
• Digital transformaSon
• Product development
• Open innovaSon & Co-‐creaSon
• CollaboraSve innovaSon
• Growth strategy
• Market & Product assessment
• M&A support
• Business plan development
• Vendor & soluSon assessment
Digital
InnovaSon
3 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
Cash is sSll king in Europe
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Finland 39 Norway 42 Sweden 50 France 50
Denmark 51 Netherlands 52
Belgium 54 UK 57
Austria 64 Estonia 65
Switzerland 66 Germany 69 Ireland 75
Portugal 78 Spain 80
Hungary 88 Czech Rep. 88
Italy 89 Poland 90 Turkey 94 Greece 97 Bulgaria 98
Cash share of transac8ons in % (2012)
Source: McKinsey, Innopay analysis
4 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
E-‐commerce: preference for cards at EU level….
Europe Cards
E-‐Wallets
Direct debit
Cash on delivery
Bank transfer
Other
59%
13%
5%
8% 5%
11%
Source: Worldpay; 2014: Your global guide to AlternaSve Payments, 2nd ediSon
5 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
…but significant variaSon in local preferences
Source: Innopay analysis, 2013
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Netherlands France Italy United Kingdom
Germany Spain
Other Cash on Delivery Mobile E-‐wallet Direct debit Bank transfer Cards
Legend
6 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
...with established ecom payment brands in most EU countries
4B Card
Debit card
Source: Innopay analysis, 2013
7 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
7
How is payments going to look like in 2020?
#GES14 crazy dude claims: payments in 2020 is not about money :D :D :D :D
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
Seven trends that will change the way consumers pay
9 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
9
Trend 1: Changing POS interac3on driven by convergence From ‘simple’ hardware to seamless ‘customer experience’
Future 2010/2013
Square (mobile card terminal, mag stripe)
iZe[le (mobile card terminal, Chip&Sign)
Adyen (mobile card terminal, Chip&PIN)
Square register (tablet ePOS)
Pay with Square (mobile wallet)
LevelUp (cloud-‐based mobile POS)
Loylogic (Loyalty payment and processing)
MyOrder Rabobank (mobile ordering)
Passbook (mobile coupons, SckeSng)
Past
Hardware So`ware Seamless ‘experience’
Tillify (cloud-‐based ePOS)
Source: Innopay
InMarket study (May 2014, n=25k): • 19x increase in interacSons with adverSsed products
• 16.5x increase in app-‐usage in the shop • 6.4x more likelihood to keep app because of beacon messages
10 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
Trend 1: Changing POS interac3on driven by convergence QR allows for interac8ons in all contexts
11 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
Trend 2: P2P (mobile) payments Underbanked, remi[ance, consumers and now SME
12 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
13 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
Bitcoin is characterized by speculaSon
Bitcoin DESIGNED to play out as a ponzi scheme bubble?
All 8me high Nov. 2013: >$1.200
Source: Coindesk
14 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
Depends on how you look at it ...
15 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
... faces compeSSon on ‘currency and technical plaoorm’ level
Voorbeelden (logo’s) andere cryptocurrency (link: http://www.telegraaf.nl/s/22176719
Source: Innopay analysis
16 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
Emerging playing field aiming to simplify bitcoins
Payment processors
Mining Hardware
Exchanges
Wallets
Financial services ‘universal’ players
Source: Coindesk, van Doorne
17 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
Increasing adopSon rate by merchants >60k (online) merchants accept Bitcoin
Source: Nasdaq.com, van Doorne
18 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
... while authoriSes sSll struggle
Source: Bitlegal.io, Finextra, WSJ.com
Legend: Permissive | ContenSous | HosSle | Unkown
19 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
19
Trend 3: Digital wallets Wallet becomes the payment method (and not the ‘money’ in it)
20 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
Wallets as a duplicaSon of PSP-‐model on issuing side?
Consumer Merchant
Acquirer Issuer
Wallet PSP
21 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
21
Trend 4: EU regula3on Payment innova8on driven by EU regula8on?
22 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
Access to the account (XS2A) will force banks to open up
1. PSD2 2. ECB legal opinion 3. Amendments
23 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
XS2A is nothing new, it has been with us for decades
Tradi8onal 4 corner model
Debtor
accoun
t
Credito
r accoun
t
Scheme & Directory
Secure messaging Account
servicing PSP Acquiring PSP
Merchant Customer
Sche
me
24 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
XS2A could drive API economy, enabling developers to build payment methods on host plaoorms
Source: Innopay analysis
25 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
XS2A: Redefining acquiring domain in the payment chain?
Source: Innopay analysis
New XS2A model: entry of TPPs
Browser Webshop
Rou3ng Service
Credito
r accoun
t
Scheme & Directory Sc
heme
Messaging (in scope) Regulated domain
Credito
r accoun
t
‘Standardized API’
Debtor
accoun
t
Debtor Creditor
‘TPP’ Online pymt provider
Account servicing PSP
Acquiring PSP
Tradi8onal 4 corner model
Browser Webshop
Online Banking Rou3ng Service
Debtor
accoun
t
Credito
r accoun
t
Scheme & Directory
Messaging (in scope)
TradiSonal scheme
Secure messaging
Account servicing PSP
Acquiring PSP
Creditor Debtor
Sche
me
Online pymt provider
26 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
Trend 5: Cardlinked marke3ng & offering (CLM) Combining purchase behavior and marke8ng
27 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
Bank of America survey amongst 200 CMO of major retailers in the US reveals potenSal of CLM
28 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
Level of sop
hisScaSo
n of ID
/trust
Trend 6: Changing check-‐out Towards a truly seamless shopping and payment experience
Seamless shopping & payment experience
Check-‐out
Source: Innopay
29 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
Trend 6: Changing check-‐out Towards a truly seamless shopping and payment experience
Check-‐in
Check-‐out
Source: Innopay
Level of sop
hisScaSo
n of ID
/trust
Seamless shopping & payment experience
30 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
Trend 6: Changing check-‐out Towards a truly seamless shopping and payment experience
Check-‐once
Check-‐out
Check-‐in
Source: Innopay
Level of sop
hisScaSo
n of ID
/trust
Seamless shopping & payment experience
31 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255 Check-‐on/off
Trend 6: Changing check-‐out Towards a truly seamless shopping and payment experience
Check-‐out
Check-‐in
Check-‐once
Source: Innopay
Level of sop
hisScaSo
n of ID
/trust
Seamless shopping & payment experience
32 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
Transac8on Selec8on Delivery Customer Care Orienta8on
Check out
• My name is John • I’m really John • I’m 18+
• I can pay • I approve this payment • This is my address
Trend 6: Changing check-‐out Early authen8ca8on can enable be[er customer experience
Orientation Selection Delivery Customer Care Transaction
Check in
• My name is John • I’m really John • I can pay • I’m 18+
I confirm this order
I confirm this address
Source: Innopay analysis
33 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
Less visible to the merchant/customer
Technology Development
More visible to the merchant/customer
Source: Innopay
Trend 7: Digital iden3ty: Unbundling of payment and authen8ca8on
34 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
Less visible to the merchant/customer
Technology Development
Iden8ty focused players More visible to the merchant/customer
Trend 7: Digital iden3ty: Pure ID players arise fast
Source: Innopay
35 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
Less visible to the merchant/customer
Technology Development
Payment focus
More visible to the merchant/customer
Trend 7: Digital iden3ty As well as some players choose to focus on payments
Source: Innopay
36 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
More visible to the merchant/customer
Less visible to the merchant/customer
Technology Development
Full service providers
Trend 7: Digital iden3ty While full service providers such as banks can do both
Source: Innopay
37 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
• Private demand will drive the market, not the government
2014
Government
Private
2020
Non Payment TRX
Payment TRX
• Personal data • ContracSng • Sign up • Login
• Payments
Market about to explode
Number of idenSty trx is much higher than payment trx and thus more relevant to consumers
Source: Innopay
38 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
Most major players recognize importance and are moving rapidly into the Digital ID space Banks: customer ownership, trusted relaSon, strong credenSals
Telco’s: customer ownership, access to trusted device
Social Media: lots of data on consumers ‘Omnipresent’
Technology: technology, B2B relaSons
Postal Services: physical network, brand
Merchants: customer knowledge, brand brand
Source: Innopay
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
Four consumer payment scenarios for 2020
40 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
40
12,000 consumers and 450 experts joined forces to develop shopping and payment scenarios for 2020
Shopper Behaviour
Cross border (e)Commerce Technological Future
Touchpoints Ecological Poli8cal/legal
Orienta8on Selec8on
Transac3on Delivery
Business Models
Omnichannel Organisa8on
Security and fraud The new shopping center
Smarter shopping Supply Chain
Future Trends
Customer Journey Key Themes
Travel plan
Finance plan
Retail plan
… plan
Ac8on plan Shopping2020
Customer Care Customer Data Value Management
Online enterpreneurship …
Shopping2020 Visie
19 Expert groups
41 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
41
Uncertainty 1: Consumer avtude towards Privacy
HIGH privacy awareness and control:
• People are conscious and want to control about what happens with their personal data
• Dedicated services to support Digital IdenSty • A move into this direcSon can be sparked by an incident or examples of data breaches
LOW privacy awareness and control:
• Currently, experts observe a trend of decreasing privacy awareness
• The adagio ‘I don’t have anything to hide’ is sSll strong in the public opinion
• People are willing to ‘trade’ their data for addiSonal benefits
HIGH privacy awareness and control
LOW privacy awareness and control
We are here!
42 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
42
Uncertainty 2: Number of payment methods (providers)
FEW payment methods: • With different channels converging, demand for an omnipresent payment method (and brand) increases
• A force that might support this, are schemes that restrict the use of their brand to support other payment services
MANY payment methods: • More payment methods because user experiences throughout various channels are more and more opSmized
• Wallets we currently see arise may develop into payment methods in their own right
MANY payment Methods (providers) We are here!
FEW payment Methods (providers)
43 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
Scenario 2 -‐ ‘Consumer Driven’
“I choose for convenience and a smooth user experiences in a given
context”
Scenario 3 -‐ ‘Back to the Trust’
“I trust a limited set of payment methods”
Scenario 4-‐ ‘Big Brands, Big Data’
“My payment provider knows a lot about me and can therefore provide me with useful services
in all contexts”
Scenario 1 -‐ ‘In Control’
“Out of the many payments methods I can choose the way I pay to fit my privacy needs”
Four consumer payment scenarios for 2020
Few payments methods (providers)
Many payments methods (providers)
High privacy awareness and control
Low privacy awareness and control
Source: nnopay, Shopping 2020
44 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
44
An incident can accelerate a shiz to another scenario
(Consolidation)
t=0
2
1
Incident + regulation!
3 4
Few payments methods (providers)
Many payments methods (providers)
High privacy awareness and control
Low privacy awareness and control
45 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
45
Service providers have to choose a posiSon between ease of use and data security
Source: Innopay
Conven
ience / e
ase of use →
Trust / Privacy
Technology or regulaSon push
PosiSoning
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
Wrap up: payments is not about money in 2020?
47 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
47
Now you know that…..
1. Consumers want a convenient and seamless shopping
2. Therefore payments need to be pushed to the background
3. Merchants need reassurance/trust before consider doing this
4. Early or automaSc authenScaSon will increase the required trust to do this
5. Major players recognize this and are moving into the idenSty space
6. ResulSng in reliable and convenient authenScaSon soluSons
7. Which will increase further unbundling of payments and authenScaSon
….you may aggree that: payments is not about money … ……but payments in 2020 will be about iden8ty!
48 How do consumers pay in 2020 – Shikko Nijland – June 2014. © Innopay BV. All rights reserved.
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
48
Don’t forget to recSficate your iniSal tweet……
#GES14 recSficaSon: crazy dude is right Payments in 2020 will be about idenSty!
R 255 G 135 B 0
R 135 G 204 B 0
R 0 G 135 B 255
Thank you!
Shikko Nijland, [email protected], @shikko +31 6 537 414 65