2010-06-15© SEVS 2010

Scenario planning - widening the perspective in SEVS

P A Martin Börjessonwww.futuramb.semartin@futuramb.se@futuramb+46 704 262891

2010-06-15© SEVS 2010

Possible future

outcomes

Uncertainty in issue

Future

Uncertainty in time

Traditional prediction

Identify the most important trends and driving forces!

Blind ”spot” = great risk

2010-06-15© SEVS 2010

Possible future

outcomes

Future

Scenario A Scenario B

Scenario C Scenario D

Traditional prediction

Uncertainty in time

Uncertainty in issue

Identify the uncertainties with most impact = critical uncertainties

2010-06-15© SEVS 2010

ECOPOLITICAL

RADICALISM IN HARMONY

INCREMENTALDEVELOPMENT

ECOINDIVIDUAL

No change in transportation patterns by life style

Radical change in transportation patterns by life style

ProactivityPolitical control

Political passivity

The SEVS scenarios

Critical uncertainties

Scenarios

Scenarios

2010-06-15© SEVS 2010

Scenario planningprocess

2010-06-15© SEVS 2010

Externalenvironment

Transactionenvironment

Internalworld

Soci

al fa

ctor

s, v

alue

s

and

dem

ogra

phy

Technology

and innovationPo

litics

, law

s

and

regu

latio

ns

Environment and ecology

Economy, industries

and companies

Scenario planning assumes an outside-in perspective...

2010-06-15© SEVS 2010

...and facilitates a search for underlying driving forces and critical uncertainties

Social factors, values and demography

Technologydevelopment

and innovation

Environment and ecology

Politics, lawsand regulations

Economy, industries and

companies

A B

C

D

E

X

GF

?

?

Driving forces- critical

uncertainties- predetermined

elements

Visibleeffects

2010-06-15© SEVS 2010

Scenario planning- meeting 3 challenges

2010-06-15© SEVS 2010

Possible future

outcomes

Uncertainty in time

Uncertainty in issue

Prediction

Future

Challenge 1 - Collective blind ”spot” due to ”group think”

2010-06-15© SEVS 2010

Possible future

outcomes

Uncertainty in time

Uncertainty in issue

Prediction

Prediction

Future Prediction

Prediction

Challenge 2 - Inaction (or scattering of resources) due to fragmented perspectives

2010-06-15© SEVS 2010

Technologies/knowledge/tools

Context/situation

Current

Future

Current Future

Solving today’s problems with today’s tools

(everybody)

Solving tomorrow’s problems with

tomorrow’s tools

Challenge 3 - balancing different groups, processes and knowledge areas

?Solving the problems of the

future with today’s tools

Analysts, politicians &

leaders

Solving today’s problems with

tomorrow’s tools

Engineers & researchers

Scenario A Scenario B

Scenario C Scenario D

2010-06-15© SEVS 2010

19www.sevs.se

2010 re

fere

nce

New fr

ont e

nd st

ruct

ure

Impro

ved

restr

aint s

yste

ms

80 km/h

spee

d lim

it for

City

Mov

ers

Pre-c

rash

activ

ated

safe

ty sy

stems (

360 deg

ree t

hrea

t sen

sing)

Auton

omou

s emer

gency

bra

king

Lane

keep

ing sy

stems

Navigat

ion sy

stems a

nd I2

V suppor

t sys

tems

Seatb

elts p

ositio

n occ

upan

ts ac

tively

bef

ore i

mpact.

Restra

int sy

stems a

daptiv

e to c

rash

type a

nd o

ccup

ant s

ize

Pre-c

rash

trigger

ing o

f res

traint

syste

ms

Booste

d em

ergen

cy b

rakin

g

Autom

atic

adap

tatio

n of s

peed

in ur

ban ar

eas

Autom

atic

inter

vent

ion d

ue to

driv

er in

atte

ntion

V2V com

munica

tion

Alco-lo

ck sy

stems

A description of society is necessary to determine the feasibility of a vehicle concept.

Any more significant changes in vehicle specifications, like smaller vehicles with limited range, necessitate that vehicle buyers modify their requirements and may require changes in how they use the vehicles.

Several scenarios must be examined in order to understand how a sustainable transportation system should be develo-ped and implemented.

SCENARIOS – A REALISTIC APPROACH TO THE FUTURE CO2 – EXAMPLE GTE

20 g/km

40 g/km

10 g/km

30 g/km

Same vehicle – different results!

WE NEED TO KNOW MORE – SEVS PHASE 2

Using a holistic approach, the SEVS project phase 1 has shown that future vehicles and road transports can be both very safe and energy efficient.

To achieve these objectives, the SEVS project phase 2 will involve Swedish industry and academy, merging society and technology to create future sustainable road transport solutions.

A few solutions are fairly effectively pushed by legal requirements and incentives. Customers do not take an active role in development, so personal flexibility is not a main factor when selecting solution.

Infrastructure support for new vehicle types, how-ever, innovation is guided by strict standards. The winning solutions are spread to whole society effectively.

Small market demand for innovative vehicles. A few large brands dominate the market with similar type of solutions.

Many innovative and extreme vehicles, especially in high price segment. Volume market is far behind and seen as ”stone age” solutions by trend setters.

19www.sevs.se

2010 re

fere

nce

New fr

ont en

d str

uctu

re

Impro

ved

restr

aint s

yste

ms

80 km/h

spee

d lim

it for C

ity M

over

s

Pre-c

rash

activ

ated

safe

ty sy

stems (

360 deg

ree t

hrea

t sen

sing)

Autono

mous e

mergen

cy b

rakin

g

Lane

keep

ing sy

stems

Navigati

on sys

tems a

nd I2

V support

syste

ms

Seatb

elts p

osition o

ccup

ants

activ

ely b

efore

impac

t.

Restra

int sy

stems a

daptiv

e to c

rash

type a

nd o

ccup

ant s

ize

Pre-c

rash

trigger

ing o

f res

traint

syste

ms

Boosted

emer

gency

bra

king

Automati

c adap

tatio

n of s

peed

in ur

ban ar

eas

Automat

ic int

erve

ntion d

ue to

driv

er in

atte

ntion

V2V commun

icatio

n

Alco-lo

ck sy

stems

A description of society is necessary to determine the feasibility of a vehicle concept.

Any more significant changes in vehicle specifications, like smaller vehicles with limited range, necessitate that vehicle buyers modify their requirements and may require changes in how they use the vehicles.

Several scenarios must be examined in order to understand how a sustainable transportation system should be develo-ped and implemented.

SCENARIOS – A REALISTIC APPROACH TO THE FUTURE CO2 – EXAMPLE GTE

20 g/km

40 g/km

10 g/km

30 g/km

Same vehicle – different results!

WE NEED TO KNOW MORE – SEVS PHASE 2

Using a holistic approach, the SEVS project phase 1 has shown that future vehicles and road transports can be both very safe and energy efficient.

To achieve these objectives, the SEVS project phase 2 will involve Swedish industry and academy, merging society and technology to create future sustainable road transport solutions.

A few solutions are fairly effectively pushed by legal requirements and incentives. Customers do not take an active role in development, so personal flexibility is not a main factor when selecting solution.

Infrastructure support for new vehicle types, how-ever, innovation is guided by strict standards. The winning solutions are spread to whole society effectively.

Small market demand for innovative vehicles. A few large brands dominate the market with similar type of solutions.

Many innovative and extreme vehicles, especially in high price segment. Volume market is far behind and seen as ”stone age” solutions by trend setters.

19www.sevs.se

2010 re

fere

nce

New fr

ont e

nd st

ruct

ure

Impro

ved

restr

aint s

yste

ms

80 km/h

spee

d lim

it for

City

Mov

ers

Pre-c

rash

activ

ated

safe

ty sy

stems (

360 deg

ree t

hrea

t sen

sing)

Auton

omou

s emer

gency

bra

king

Lane

keep

ing sy

stems

Navigat

ion sy

stems a

nd I2

V suppor

t sys

tems

Seatb

elts p

osition

occ

upan

ts ac

tively

bef

ore i

mpact.

Restra

int sy

stems a

daptiv

e to c

rash

type a

nd o

ccup

ant s

ize

Pre-c

rash

trigger

ing o

f res

traint

syste

ms

Booste

d em

ergen

cy b

rakin

g

Autom

atic

adap

tatio

n of s

peed

in ur

ban ar

eas

Autom

atic

inter

vent

ion d

ue to

driv

er in

atte

ntion

V2V commun

icatio

n

Alco-lo

ck sy

stems

A description of society is necessary to determine the feasibility of a vehicle concept.

Any more significant changes in vehicle specifications, like smaller vehicles with limited range, necessitate that vehicle buyers modify their requirements and may require changes in how they use the vehicles.

Several scenarios must be examined in order to understand how a sustainable transportation system should be develo-ped and implemented.

SCENARIOS – A REALISTIC APPROACH TO THE FUTURE CO2 – EXAMPLE GTE

20 g/km

40 g/km

10 g/km

30 g/km

Same vehicle – different results!

WE NEED TO KNOW MORE – SEVS PHASE 2

Using a holistic approach, the SEVS project phase 1 has shown that future vehicles and road transports can be both very safe and energy efficient.

To achieve these objectives, the SEVS project phase 2 will involve Swedish industry and academy, merging society and technology to create future sustainable road transport solutions.

A few solutions are fairly effectively pushed by legal requirements and incentives. Customers do not take an active role in development, so personal flexibility is not a main factor when selecting solution.

Infrastructure support for new vehicle types, how-ever, innovation is guided by strict standards. The winning solutions are spread to whole society effectively.

Small market demand for innovative vehicles. A few large brands dominate the market with similar type of solutions.

Many innovative and extreme vehicles, especially in high price segment. Volume market is far behind and seen as ”stone age” solutions by trend setters.

19www.sevs.se

2010 re

fere

nce

New fr

ont e

nd st

ruct

ure

Impro

ved

restr

aint s

yste

ms

80 km/h

spee

d lim

it for

City

Mov

ers

Pre-c

rash

activ

ated

safe

ty sy

stems (

360 deg

ree t

hrea

t sen

sing)

Auton

omous e

mergen

cy b

rakin

g

Lane

keep

ing sy

stems

Navigat

ion sy

stems a

nd I2

V suppor

t sys

tems

Seatb

elts p

osition

occ

upan

ts ac

tively

bef

ore i

mpact.

Restra

int sy

stems a

daptiv

e to c

rash

type a

nd o

ccup

ant s

ize

Pre-c

rash

trigger

ing o

f res

traint

syste

ms

Boosted

emer

gency

bra

king

Automat

ic ad

apta

tion o

f spee

d in

urban

area

s

Automat

ic int

erve

ntion

due

to d

river

inat

tent

ion

V2V commun

icatio

n

Alco-lo

ck sy

stems

A description of society is necessary to determine the feasibility of a vehicle concept.

Any more significant changes in vehicle specifications, like smaller vehicles with limited range, necessitate that vehicle buyers modify their requirements and may require changes in how they use the vehicles.

Several scenarios must be examined in order to understand how a sustainable transportation system should be develo-ped and implemented.

SCENARIOS – A REALISTIC APPROACH TO THE FUTURE CO2 – EXAMPLE GTE

20 g/km

40 g/km

10 g/km

30 g/km

Same vehicle – different results!

WE NEED TO KNOW MORE – SEVS PHASE 2

Using a holistic approach, the SEVS project phase 1 has shown that future vehicles and road transports can be both very safe and energy efficient.

To achieve these objectives, the SEVS project phase 2 will involve Swedish industry and academy, merging society and technology to create future sustainable road transport solutions.

A few solutions are fairly effectively pushed by legal requirements and incentives. Customers do not take an active role in development, so personal flexibility is not a main factor when selecting solution.

Infrastructure support for new vehicle types, how-ever, innovation is guided by strict standards. The winning solutions are spread to whole society effectively.

Small market demand for innovative vehicles. A few large brands dominate the market with similar type of solutions.

Many innovative and extreme vehicles, especially in high price segment. Volume market is far behind and seen as ”stone age” solutions by trend setters.

19www.sevs.se

2010 re

fere

nce

New fr

ont e

nd st

ruct

ure

Impro

ved

restr

aint s

yste

ms

80 km/h

spee

d lim

it for

City

Mov

ers

Pre-c

rash

activ

ated

safe

ty sy

stems (

360 deg

ree t

hrea

t sen

sing)

Auton

omou

s emer

gency

bra

king

Lane

keep

ing sy

stems

Navigat

ion sy

stems a

nd I2

V suppor

t sys

tems

Seatb

elts p

osition

occ

upan

ts ac

tively

bef

ore i

mpact.

Restra

int sy

stems a

daptiv

e to c

rash

type a

nd o

ccup

ant s

ize

Pre-c

rash

trigger

ing o

f res

traint

syste

ms

Booste

d em

ergen

cy b

rakin

g

Autom

atic

adap

tatio

n of s

peed

in ur

ban ar

eas

Autom

atic

inter

vent

ion d

ue to

driv

er in

atte

ntion

V2V commun

icatio

n

Alco-lo

ck sy

stems

A description of society is necessary to determine the feasibility of a vehicle concept.

Any more significant changes in vehicle specifications, like smaller vehicles with limited range, necessitate that vehicle buyers modify their requirements and may require changes in how they use the vehicles.

Several scenarios must be examined in order to understand how a sustainable transportation system should be develo-ped and implemented.

SCENARIOS – A REALISTIC APPROACH TO THE FUTURE CO2 – EXAMPLE GTE

20 g/km

40 g/km

10 g/km

30 g/km

Same vehicle – different results!

WE NEED TO KNOW MORE – SEVS PHASE 2

Using a holistic approach, the SEVS project phase 1 has shown that future vehicles and road transports can be both very safe and energy efficient.

To achieve these objectives, the SEVS project phase 2 will involve Swedish industry and academy, merging society and technology to create future sustainable road transport solutions.

A few solutions are fairly effectively pushed by legal requirements and incentives. Customers do not take an active role in development, so personal flexibility is not a main factor when selecting solution.

Infrastructure support for new vehicle types, how-ever, innovation is guided by strict standards. The winning solutions are spread to whole society effectively.

Small market demand for innovative vehicles. A few large brands dominate the market with similar type of solutions.

Many innovative and extreme vehicles, especially in high price segment. Volume market is far behind and seen as ”stone age” solutions by trend setters.

...and provides a common mental platform for thinking, collaborating and communicating in an uncertain and complex environment...

Scenarios widens the perception, captures the complexity...

...and is a powerful navigationtool when going down the roadtowards the future

2010-06-15© SEVS 2010

Technologies/knowledge/tools

Context/situation

Current

Future

Current Future

Solving tomorrow’s problems with

tomorrows tools

Scenario A Scenario B

Scenario DScenario C

D

AB

C

SEVS scenario learning journey

2010-06-15© SEVS 2010

Scenarios are

– Stories - and not predictions

– Hypothesies - and not theories

– Divergent - and not convergent

– ...vehicles for supporting a collective learning process about the future in order to take the right decisions today

2010-06-15© SEVS 2010

Scenario planninglearning

thinking