setting tillamook county road service priorities using asset
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PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Setting Tillamook County Road Service Priorities Using Asset Management, Risk & Public Involvement
OACES Fall ConferenceEugene, Oregon
November 19, 2008
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Presentation OverviewObjective & ProcessAsset Management PlanRisk Workshop Service Strategy & Improvement Plan
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Objective & ProcessAsset Management PlanRisk Workshop Service Strategy & Improvement Plan
Presentation Overview
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Objective:We are all on board moving together, on the same page as a County team
Establish common framework – mission, vision, valuesEvaluate current state (people, tools, practices)
Document asset planAssess & rank risks (40% budget cuts by 7/1/2008)
Confirm FY 2008-09 priorities & operational strategy (what services keep/what services eliminate)
Liane
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Process1. Develop Asset Management Plan
Identify TCPWD missionReadiness AssessmentSummary current state, demands & improvement plan
2. Establish Risk & Rate Assets & Services3. Implement Strategy & Improvements
Adopt Preventative Maintenance StrategyAdopt AM Policy (Next Board action)Redirect resources to establish drainage programImprove tools & people management (equipment, GIS & hiring)Target highest risks (arterials, bridges, regulatory signs & markings)Develop performance reporting tied to service requests & costsContinue partnering where appropriate
Patricia
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Asset Management – The ability to sustainably manage community resources for the least cost with an understanding of the long term impacts.
PBS
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Asset Management: 5 Core Questions
Goal: Be a Knowledgeable Owner
1. What is the current state of my assets?
2. What is my required sustained level of service/ performance?
3. Which assets are critical to sustained performance?
4. What are my best minimum costs to operate/maintain/renew?
5. What is my best long-term funding strategy?
PBS
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
The What & Why of AM
A strategic way of targeting available resources that gets the best “Bang for the Buck”Considers today’s actions so they minimize long term costsProviding the desired level of road service for the community for the least cost
“If I had $1 left, where should I put and why?”
PBS
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Service Level Agreement
AMUG
+ Commission Goals
+Community Safety
+Smooth roads
+Emergency response
SERVICE LEVEL
AGREEMENT
CustomerWillingness to pay
What the Customer Wants
+ $
+$+$
+$+$+$
+$+$+$+$
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
“The current condition and level of maintenance of the County roads are adequate.”
*April 2007 survey of 4,000 Tillamook County residents
79% Strongly Disagree or Disagree*
Are residents satisfied with County road conditions?
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Road Funding Sources - Fiscal 2007- 2008 Adopted Budget
$4.8 Million
37%
31%
32%
Federal Forest Fees
Motor Vehicles Fees
Other (Grants, Fees, Etc)
37% of funding eliminated 7/1/2008
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Yes35%
No65%
Ballot Title: “Shall county service district impose $1.00 per $1,000 assessed value as a permanent rate limit for roads beginning in 2008-2009?”
May 2008 Results
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Objective & ProcessAsset Management PlanRisk Workshop Service Strategy & Improvement Plan
Presentation Overview
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
County Public Works MissionWe take pride in serving the public by
providing, maintaining, and preserving a safe and efficient county road network, and quickly responding to weather events and hazards. We protect the public’s investment by
working with our partners and targeting resources to minimize long term costs while providing the best possible service.
Liane
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
The ports of Tillamook Bay, Garibaldi, Nehalem
Tillamook County Road Customers
Stakeholder Groups
County Commission
CRAC
Government AgenciesTillamook County
oDept. of Community DevelopmentoTransit
Oregon oDepartment of TransportationoDepartment of ForestryoState Parks
U.S. Army Corp of Engineers
Economic Development Council
Futures Council
Businesses
Rural business/Farm & Logging
Commercial businesses
Industrial businesses
Non-resident businesses (freight companies)
Developers
Citizens
County residents
Taxpayers
Non-resident visitors
Unincorporated communities including Barview, Beaver, Cape Meares, Cloverdale, Falcon Syskeyville, Tierra Del Mar, Twin Rocks.
The cities of Bay City, Garibaldi, Manzanita, Nehalem, Rockaway Beach, Tillamook, Wheeler
Service Districts & Tillamook PUD Liane
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Global and State Trends One in every five jobs is transportation dependentOregon is the ninth most transportation-dependent stateThe last gas tax increase was in 1993A dollar in 1993 has the buying power of 58 cents today, given inflationPortland will grow by 1 million by 2026, which impacts
coastal communities’ populationimpacts road congestion
Portland metro freight tonnage doubles by 2026Liane
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Tillamook County Assessment27 out of last 35 years significant natural disasters (flood & wind) reactive maintenance & asset failures (Salmonberry Bridge)
Worst road conditions in Oregon (44PCI -2008)
Increased traffic volume & weightNo local funding (60% live outside county)Roads not designed for current use No preventative maintenance strategy
Liane
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Tillamook County Population
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1970 1980 1990 2007
6.5% population growth since 2001
64% live in unincorporated county
Rural, Growing Population Dairy, logging & tourism economy
Dairy, logging & tourism dependent
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Current State of County Road Network – 2007FACILITY STATUS CONDITION TOTAL UNMET
VG G F P VP TBD NEEDPAVEMENT
Paved 287 centerline miles 29% 17% 25% 29% $35,800,000Gravel 91 centerline miles TBA N/A
$35,800,000STRUCTURES
Bridges 96 63% 27% 7% TBDGuardrails 10.1 miles 39% 8% 8% 33% 10% $495,526Levees 2 X TBD
$495,526DRAINAGE
Culverts 3,210 X TBDDitches 668 miles X TBD
TRAFFIC SIGNALS X TBDSTREET SIGNS
Signs 4,807 92% 7% 1% $1,620Delineators 659 X TBDPosts 5,452 X TBD
PAVEMENT MARKINGSPainted N/APainted Stop Bars TBD N/A
VEHICLES & EQUIPMENT TBD TBDBUILDINGS XRIGHT-OF-WAYTOTAL $36,297,146
2,367 acres
99
1
282 centerline miles
TBD
PBS
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Road Network Replacement Value - $311M
Dra ina ge $2.4M
Structure s $34.8M
Pa ve d Roa ds $268.4M
Stre e t S igns $.3M
Equipm e nt & V e hicle s $3.6M
Right of W a y $1.5M
County Road Business Practices
AssetInventories
Process
Inventory?Documented Condition?
Documented inspection process?
Established inspection schedule?
If yes, frequency?
Roads YesIRIS-SS Yes Yes Yes Every 2 years
Bridges YesSpreadsheet Yes Yes Yes Every 2 years
Traffic Signs-reflectivity
YesIRIS-RI
PartialIRIS-RI
YesAnnual report Yes Once per year-
night inspection
Traffic Signs-maintenance - Yes
IRIS-RIYes
Report On-going
Guardrail YesIRIS-RI Yes No No -
Culverts Yes Yes (2006) No No -
Ditches No No No No -
PavementMarkings No No No - -
Levees No No No No -
Buildings No No No No -
Vehicles YesIRIS-EM No Yes Yes By need
Quarry sites No No No No No
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Same Funding Level for Last 10 Years
Tillamook County Road Revenues Ten Year History
$0$500,000
$1,000,000$1,500,000$2,000,000$2,500,000$3,000,000$3,500,000$4,000,000$4,500,000$5,000,000
97-9
8 A
ctua
l
98-9
9 A
ctua
l
99-0
0 A
ctua
l
00-0
1 A
ctua
l
01-0
2 A
ctua
l
02-0
3 P
roje
cted
03-0
4 A
ctua
l
04-0
5 A
ctua
l
05-0
6 A
ctua
l
06-0
7 A
ctua
l
Other (Grants, Fees, Etc)Motor Vehicles FeesFederal Forest Fees
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Residential, 36%Arterial, 10%Collector, 54%
What is the current state of my assets? Pavement Condition: Fair
Collector PCI = 51
Arterial PCI = 66
Local PCI = 40
Condition Category PCI Range
Good 70 - 100
Satisfactory 50 - 69
Fair 25 – 49
Poor < 25
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Comparing Road ConditionPavement Condition Index
Clatsop County 75 Lincoln County 76 Washington County 81 Polk County 83 Tillamook County 48*
*Why the difference?
•Local funding
•Location
•Management strategies
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
If we do nothing: PCI 25 in 10 years
$17,496,811 $19,070,949$23,745,753
$27,247,362$31,431,890
$35,281,000$38,496,977
$42,829,302$45,390,725
$50,374,883
3331
2927
25
3538
41
4548
PCI
Unmet Need
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Investment Scenarios
$0 Investment
System improves
$50 Million Unmet Need
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Climate = Wet - 90 inches average rainfall - 5 rivers empty into Tillamook Bay
Recent severe weather events:November 2006 – 50 year floodDecember 2006 – 10 year wind eventJanuary 2007 – 20 year snow eventDecember 2007 – hurricane-force winds & floodTen-Year Weather prediction – More of the same
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Tillamook County Public Works Employee Numbers
0
10
20
30
40
50
6019
81
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Objective & ProcessAsset Management PlanRisk WorkshopService Strategy & Improvement Plan
Presentation Overview
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
The Risk Management Process
Liane
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Risk Workshop ParticipantsCounty BoardAdvisory CommitteeTCPWD
Director Customer service Cost AccountingEngineeringForemen
County DirectorsHuman ResourceFlood ManagerTreasurerComm. Devlpmt.
Citizens
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Risk Workshop Objectives
Identify, evaluate and rank road service risksClarify road service priorities for Fiscal Year 2008-2009 (what services keep/what services eliminate)We are all on board moving together, on the same page as a county team
Liane
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Risk = Likelihood x Consequence
Likelihood
Consequence
1Insignificant
2Minor
3Moderate
4Major
5Catastrophic
5 Almost Certain
M H H E E
4 Likely M M H H E
3 Moderate L M H H H
2 Unlikely L L M M H
1 Rare L L M M H
PBS
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
The Risk Management Process
TREAT RISKS
- Identify options- Assess options- Treatment plans
ANALYSE & EVALUATE RISKS
- Consequences- Likelihood - Level of Risk- Evaluate
IDENTIFY RISKS
- What can happen ?- When and why ?- How and why ?
NAMS.PLUS
PBS
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
County Road Services & AssetsRoads (paved and gravel, local access roads)Structures (bridges, levees and guardrails)Drainage (culverts and ditches)Traffic Safety (road signs, road markings, traffic signal)Equipment managementFacilities (buildings) managementQuarriesOperational programs
Vegetation ManagementEmergency ManagementEngineering Administrative ServicesMaterials and Stockpiling
PBS
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Risk Assessment
#
Prog
ram
Risk Category Failure Cause Effect
Thre
at o
r O
ppor
tuni
ty
Primary Objective Probability Impact
54321
1 2 3 4 5
54321
1 2 3 4 5
54321
1 2 3 4 5
54321
1 2 3 4 5
54321
1 2 3 4 5
54321
1 2 3 4 5
4
Stru
ctur
es
Bridges
Condition deteriorates to point of asset failure under normal
traffic loading Lifeline failure during natural
disaster event or restricted use Restrictions on
load/dimensions of use
Risk Management Plan for Tillamook County Public Works Department
Risk Matrix
Qualitative Risk AssessmentRisk Identification
Lack of timely maintenance Insufficient funding
Poor design Wet climate Poor drainage
Prob
abili
ty
Impact
Paved roads
2 Gravel roads-county maintained
1
Roa
dsR
oads
Lack of county maintenance Poor design Wet climate
Poor drainage
3 Local Access Roads
Roa
ds
Impact
Prob
abili
ty
Lack of private maintenance
Prob
abili
ty
Impact
Prob
abili
ty
Impact
6
Stru
ctur
es
Levees
Natural disaster (wind/rain, flooding, erosion) causes erosion and embankment
failure and flooding
Prob
abili
ty
Impact
5St
ruct
ures
Guardrails
Condition deteriorates to point of asset failure Asset
fails during natural disaster Asset fails due to failure of
roadside slope Guardrail failure caused by poor design, landslide and
vehicle impact
Prob
abili
ty
Impact
TREAT RISKS
- Identify options- Assess options- Treatment plans
ANALYSE & EVALUATE RISKS
- Consequences- Likelihood - Level of Risk- Evaluate
IDENTIFY RISKS
- What can happen ?- When and why ?- How and why ?
Asset at riskWhat can happen?When can it occur?Possible cause?Existing ControlsLikelihood?Consequences?Risk ratingAction Required
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
How Things FailNatural events – floods or windstormsPhysical failure – bridge or levee failureOperation risk – lack of staff to inspect and maintain assets adequatelyExternal impacts – loss of federal forest receiptsOpportunity risk – grant or partner-funded project that adds to long term maintenance needs
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Table 1: Likelihood of Risk
Likelihood Probability Frequency Description RatingThe threat can be expected to occur
OrA very poor state of knowledge has been established on the threat.The threat will quite commonly occurOrA poor state of knowledge has been established on the threat.The threat may occur occasionallyOrA moderate state of knowledge has been established on the threat.The threat could infrequently occurOrA good state of knowledge has been established on the threat.The threat may occur in exceptional circumstancesOrA very good state of knowledge has been established on the threat.
Rare 10% Once per 10 years + 1
Unlikely 20-30% Once per 2-3 out of 10 years 2
Moderate 50% Every 5 out of every 10 years 3
90% 9 out of every 10 years 5
Likely 70% 7 out of every 10 years 4
Almost Certain
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Risk Consequence CriteriaCriterion Risk Evaluation Notes
Operational Risks that have the potential to reduce services for a period of time unacceptable to the community and/or adversely affect the County’s public image.
Technical Risks that cannot be treated by County’s existing and/or readily available technical resources.
Financial Risks that cannot be treated within County’s normal maintenance budgets or by reallocation of an annual capital works program.
Legal Risks that have the potential to generate unacceptable exposure to litigation.
Social Risks that have the potential to:- cause personal injury or death and/or- cause significant social/political disruption in the community.
Environmental Risks that have the potential to cause environmental harm.
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Table 2: Consequence of Risk
Factor Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic1 2 3 4 5
Economic(damages to community, losses, additional expenditures) Legal compliance County fully
complies and is on course with regulators to anticipate mandates
County agrees to compliance schedule, and avoids lawsuits and fines.
County warned of compliance issues and adopts corrective action
County sued or fined for missing mandates. Expects to comply in 1 year.
County sued or fined for missing mandates. No viable plan to comply.
Community impact Community complaints
Unplanned disruption to multiple households, firms or community services/structures
Simultaneous unplanned disruption to multiple households, firms, or community services/structures
Unplanned disruption to large number of households
Unplanned disruption to essential service (e.g., lifeline route)
Human health and safety No injuries Minor injuries Serious injuries Single fatality or multiple serious injuries
Multiple fatalities
Reputation No adverse media (all week)
Local media criticize county for 1 week
Regional media criticizes County for 2 days
National media criticizes County for 2 days
National media criticizes County for 1 week
Environment Short-term damage
Limited but medium-term negative effect
Major but recoverable ecological damage
Heavy ecological damage, costly restoration
Permanent, widespread ecological damage
Human Resources Permanent staff turnover 0% to 10% per year
Permanent staff turnover 10% to 15% per year
Permanent staff turnover 15% to 20% per year
Permanent staff turnover 20% to 30% per year
Permanent staff turnover exceeds 30% per year
Score
Less than $5,000
$5,000-$50,000 $50,000 -$100,000 $100,000 - $500,000
Greater than $500,000 (or 25% of budget).
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
County Service Risk Priorities & Treatment
ExtremeExtreme risks Treatment StrategyArterial/collector streets MitigateEmergency response MitigateSpraying & mowing – local access roads Mitigate/TransferFleet & equipment MitigateInadequate staffing/retention Mitigate
Liane
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Risk PrioritiesHighHigh risks Treatment Strategy
Gravel roads MitigateLocal Access Roads TransferBridges MitigateLevees MitigateCulverts/Ditches & Shoulders MitigateSigns-Regulatory AvoidPavement markings MitigateQuarries Mitigate
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Risk PrioritiesMediumMedium Risks Treatment Strategies
Guardrails AcceptSigns/Other AcceptEngineering staffing inadequate Mitigate
LowLow Risks Treatment StrategiesBuildings Mitigate
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Next Step: Risk Action Plan
Action RequiredE Extreme Risk Immediate action required to reduce riskH High Risk Management attention required to manage riskM Medium Risk Management responsibiliteis specificed and risk controls reviewedL Low Risk Manage by routine procedures
Risk Rating
TREAT RISKS
- Identify options- Assess options- Treatment plans
ANALYSE & EVALUATE RISKS
- Consequences- Likelihood - Level of Risk- Evaluate
IDENTIFY RISKS
- What can happen ?- When and why ?- How and why ?
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
“Risk Register” or Work Plan
Treatment OptionsRemaining risk once action takenRisk treatment planActionsResponsibilityResources/budgetDate Due
Patricia
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Objective & ProcessAsset Management PlanRisk Workshop Service Strategy & Improvement Plan
Presentation Overview
Pavement Management Best Practice: Preventative Maintenance
Pavement Age (Years)
VeryPoor
Poor
Fair
Good
VeryGood
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 45 55
Rebuild$500,000
Rebuild$500,000
Seal$20,000
Seal$20,000
Overlay$200,000
Seal$20,000
Seal$20,000
Overlay$200,000
Seal$20,000
Seal$20,000
40 50
Initial Building
Cost$750,000
The poorer the road, the greater the liability.
PreservedTotal =$520,000
Non-PreservedTotal =$1.0 Million
Tillamook
Polk County
Pavement Strategy: “Mix of Fixes”
Preventative maintenancechipsealing $25k per mile“Keep Good Roads in Good Condition”We have not been doing this
Continue Overlay Programpaving $150k per mileContinue 3-8 mile program (depending on budget)
Rebuild What’s Broken full-depth reconstruction $280k per mile with available money
It costs 10 times as much to rebuild than prevent deterioration
Pavement Management Strategy
05
101520253035404550
2001 2004 2007
GoodSatisfactoryFairPoor
Reconstruct: PCI <45
Preserve: PCI >45<70
Maintain: PCI >70
Tillamook County
Past Pavement Condition Distribution
$624,904$883,637
$364,000
$2,809,041
$289,000
$100,000
$291,000$57,500$80,000
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
Carry Forward From 2009 +Safety Net
Carry Forward to 2011
$150,000
FY 2010
Labor Costs
Material costs – Asphalt,culverts, aggregate,
striping, fuel, buildings,bridges, guardrails,
levees
Vehicle Fund
Savings to unappropriated ending fund balance
Carry forward $1,351,041 + Safety Net $1,458,000
Salmonberry Bridge Match
SB 994 Projects
Overlays
Surplus
Expenditures
Revenue
Chip Sealing
Director of Public Works
Road Supervisor Road Supervisor
Civil Engineer(new position)
Public Works Facilities Supervisor
Solid WasteProgram Coordinator
EngineeringTechnician Lead Worker
Engineering Tech
Engineering Tech(new Position)
MEO 3
MEO 3(recalled)
MEO 2
MEO 2
MEO 2(Recalled)
MEO 2Recalled
MEO 3
MEO 3(recalled)
MEO 2
MEO 2(Vacant Position new hire)
MEO 2(Vacant Position,
New hire)
MEO 2(new hire)
Bridge Repair Specialist
Accounting Tech
Public WorksMaintenance Supervisor
Mechanic
Accounting Clerk
Half TimeOffice Specialist
Proposed Re-Organization Plan
Director of Public Works
Road Supervisor Road Supervisor Road Supervisor(highly likely)
EngineeringTechnician
Lead Worker(highly likely)
Engineering TechMEO 3(likely)
MEO 3
MEO 2
MEO 3(highly likely)
MEO 3
Bridge Repair Specialist
(likely)
Accounting Tech
MaintenanceSupervisor
Mechanic(Retirement date set))
Accounting Clerk
MEO 2(Possible)
Mechanic(Possible)
MEO 2(Possible)
MEO 2(Possible)
HIGHLY LIKELYHIGHLY LIKELY
LIKELYLIKELY
POSSIBLEPOSSIBLE
SCHEDULEDSCHEDULED
Retirement Attrition Next 3 Years
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Summary of Staffing IssuesProvide flexibility of staff (No MEO I’s)Add internal technical staff (Engineering & Eng. Tech.)Help with succession planning
Grow technical & operational experiencePlan for known retirements (Up to 50% possible retire in next 3 years)
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Contracting Out vs. In-house Work Strategy: Contract out appropriately
Chipsealing by Marion CountyPublic Contracting Law (ORS 279.C)
Pros Don’t have to hire staffDon’t need specs and plans (e.g., chipseal w/ Marion Co.)
Cons Still need to develop plans, specs & bid documentsConstruction inspection & manage contracts = more work for staffRemoves money from community if locals don’t get jobPotential union impacts
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Next StepsImplement Strategy & Improvements
Implement service prioritiesAdopt AM PolicyImprove tools & people management: GIS & hiring strategiesTarget highest risk assets (arterials, bridges & regulatory signs & markings)Continue partnering where appropriate
Improve link between asset & financial planningMonitor & report performance & risk managementCOMMUNICATE CHOICE & CONSEQUENCECOMMUNICATE CHOICE & CONSEQUENCE
The choice is yours!
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Communicate Choice & Consequence
Road Maintenance FeeSpecial DistrictLocal Option Property TaxTransient Room TaxBond MeasureCounty Sales TaxDevelopment FeeWeight Fee
Tillamook County Citizens for Sustainable Roads August 6-9, 2008
PBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Thank You!
Liane Welch, DirectorTillamook County Public Works
Patricia Bugas-SchrammPBS Consulting – Asset Strategies
Setting Road Service Priorities Using Asset Management, Risk & Public Involvement