Session 9 1

Comparative Emergency Management

Session 9 Slide Deck

Session 9 2

Session Objectives1. Provide a Detailed Definition and Description of Risk in the

Context of the Emergency Management Profession.

2. Provide a background on the various forms of consequences considered in a hazard risk assessment and analysis.

3. Explain how Likelihood and Consequence may both be represented as either qualitative or quantitative values.

4. Describe the Process by which Hazard Likelihood and Consequence are Analyzed.

5. Explain how Individual Risks are Evaluated in a Standardized Format.

6. Explore Examples of Risk Management in Practice

Session 9 3

Risk

• Affects all people and all communities without exception, irrespective of geographic or socioeconomic limits

• Every economic, social, policy, or political action or choice made by government and its constituents, and the businesses that operate in those communities, involves specific, often unknown, factors of risk

• Risk is Individual and Collective

Session 9 4

Risk Equation

RISK = LIKELIHOOD X CONSEQUENCE

Session 9 5

Consequence Factors

• Deaths / Fatalities (Human)• Injuries (Human)• Damages (cost, reported in currency,

generally US dollars for international comparison)

Session 9 6

Direct Losses

• “those first order consequences which occur immediately after an event, such as the deaths and damage caused by the throwing down of buildings in an earthquake” (Smith, 1992)

• Examples: Fatalities, Injuries, Relocation Costs, Cleanup/Repair Costs

Session 9 7

Indirect Losses

• May emerge much later and may be much less easy to attribute directly to the event.

• Examples: Income Loss, Mental Illness, Loss of Institutional Knowledge

Session 9 8

Tangible Losses

• Those for which a dollar value can be assigned.

• Examples: Response Costs, Repair Costs, Inventory Loss

Session 9 9

Intangible Losses

• Cannot be expressed in universally accepted financial terms.

• Examples: Cultural Loss, Stress, Mental Illness, Aesthetic Loss

Session 9 10

Quantitative Analysis of Risk

• Uses mathematical and/or statistical data to derive numerical descriptions of risk.

• Gives a specific data point (dollars, probability, frequency, or number of injuries/fatalities, for example)

Session 9 11

Qualitative Analysis of Risk

• Uses defined terms (words) to describe and categorize the likelihood and consequences of risk.

• Allows each qualifier (word) to represent a range of possibilities.

Session 9 12

Additional Consequence Measures

• Complexity or Difficulty Associated With Emergency Operations

• Disruptions to Lives and Livelihoods (Social Disruption)

• Disruption to economy • Environmental impact

Session 9 13

Depth of Analysis

• The amount of time and money available• The seriousness of the risk• The complexity of the risk

Session 9 14

Full Damage Consequence Analysis

• Losses to Structures• Losses to Contents• Losses to Structure Use and Function and

Cost of Displacement

Session 9 15

Qualitative Example 1

Session 9 16

Qualitative Example 2

Session 9 17

Qualitative Example 3

Session 9 18

Risk Matrix

Session 9 19

FEMA Risk Matrix Values• Class A. High-risk condition with highest priority

for mitigation and contingency planning (immediate action)

• Class B. Moderate to high risk condition with risk addressed by mitigation and contingency planning (prompt action)

• Class C. Risk condition sufficiently high to give consideration for further mitigation and planning (planned action)

• Class D. Low-risk condition with additional mitigation contingency planning (advisory in nature)

Session 9 20

Risk Registers

• Name of Risk• Qualitative Likelihood Value• Qualitative Consequence Value• Level of risk• Priority Rating• Additional Information as needed

Session 9 21

SMAUG Methodology

• Seriousness• Manageability• Acceptability• Urgency• Growth

Session 9 22

Australia / New Zealand

Establish the Context

Objectives

Stakeholders

Criteria

Define key elements

Identify the Risks

Hazards analysis

Vulnerability analysis

Analyze the Risks

Review controls

Likelihoods

Consequences

Level of risk

Evaluate the Risks

Evaluate risks

Rank Risks

Treat the Risks

Identify options

Select the best responses

Develop risk treatment plan

Implement

Communicate and Consult

Monitor and Review