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Session 2Threat Ranking

Module 2, Unit 3, Session 2

Session Objectives

By the end of this session, campaign managers should be able to:

•Identify the components of Threat Ranking•Evaluate and prioritize threats by Scope, Severity & Irreversibility

•Rank threats in Miradi•Create a draft Threat Ranking Assessment for Expert Validation for Campaign Site

Where are We Now?

Module 2, Unit 3, Session 2

Link to ToC

• Concept model => CR & record of starting point• Threat ranking => Top threat• Factor chain => Target audience• Identify range of management options• Assess management options & finalize choice of threat• Results chain => BC & ToC• BR, PCRA => Revise ToC

Which is the Greater Threat?

Logging or Firewood collection?

Module 2, Unit 3, Session 2

How to Rank Threats

Consider these Factors:

• Scope: Proportion of the overall area likely to be affected within given time frame by a given threat

• Severity: The level of damage expected within the time frame

• Irreversibility: The importance of taking immediate action to counter the threat

Module 2, Unit 3, Session 2

Scope: Proportion of the conservation target affected by the threat

Conservation target: 100 ha forest

Threat:Logging vrs collection of firewood

Timeframe:10 year

Very High: 71-100% - High: 31-70% - Medium: 11-30% - Low: 1-10%

Severity: The degree to which the threat destroys or impairs the target

Very High: destroy or eliminate the target High: seriously degrade/reduceMedium: moderately degrade/reduce Low: slightly degrade/reduce

Conservation target: 100 ha forest

Threat:Logging vrs collection of firewood

Timeframe:10 year

Irreversibility: Degree to which the effects of the threat can be reversed

Very High: > 100 years - High: 21-100 yearsMedium: 6-20 years - Low: 0-5 years

Conservation target: 100 ha forest

Threat:Logging vrs collection of firewood

Timeframe:10 year

What if the conservation target is mobile ?

Module 2, Unit 3, Session 2

Scope: Proportion of the conservation target affected by the threat

Conservation target: Carnivorous reef fish MPA

Threat: Cyanide fishing vrs spear fishing

Timeframe:10 year

Very High: 71-100% - High: 31-70% - Medium: 11-30% - Low: 1-10%

Where?How often? How many fishermen ?

Severity: The degree to which the threat destroys or impairs the target

Very High: reduce its population by 71-100% within ten years or three generations. High: reduce its population by 31-70% within ten years or three generations Medium: reduce its population by 11-30% within ten years or three generationsLow: reduce its population by 1-10% within ten years or three generations

Conservation target: Carnivorous reef fish MPA

Threat: Cyanide fishing vrs spear fishing

Timeframe:10 year

Impact of threat on population growth?reproductive rate?

Irreversibility: Degree to which the effects of the threat can be reversed

Very High: > 100 years - High: 21-100 yearsMedium: 6-20 years - Low: 0-5 years

Conservation target: Carnivorous reef fish MPA

Threat: Cyanide fishing vrs spear fishing

Timeframe:10 year

Fish stock recovery time?

Threat ranking in Miradi

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Rank two threats – 20min

Conservation target: Carnivorous reef fish inside Pandan MPA (130Ha)Threat: Cyanide fishing vrs spear fishingTimeframe: 10 year

Cyanide fishing by 2 fishermen from neighboring community, once a month, occurs in 20% of site only, kills all fish in radius of 10-15m, catch 30kg per trip

Spear fishing by 15-20 local fishermen across all of site, do not catch juvenile but catch fish >3 age, catch 10-190kg per trip

Napoleon wrasse become sexually mature age 6-7, some individuals become male at 9 years old, live 25-30 yearsMales as big as 2m; weigh up to 190kg

Exercise in Miradi

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Identify

-Highest threat and why

-Assumptions

-Questions / Additional information that would have been useful to have

Threat ranking in Miradi

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Exercise in Miradi on LolaLooking at the Lola threat ranking answer the following questions

15minutes

1. How many threats are listed in the threat ranking?

2. And how many conservation targets?

3. Identify the threat that scored the lowest for each conservation target

4. Which threat scored the highest across all 4 conservation targets?

5. Compare the threat ranking for dynamite bombing and cyanide fishing for invertebrates and for coral reef. What is the difference according to the Lola threat ranking?

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6. Out of the 3 threats that scored “high” in the summary threat ranking, which one is the highest threat to coral reef?

7. What does the summary target rating tell you?

8. Is there a way in Miradi to change the order in which threats are displayed in the table? Play around and see if you can find out how

9. Imagine this was the ranking someone had done for your site. What 3 things would you agree with? What three things would you rank differently at you site?

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Review in reader what does good threat ranking look likep24

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Threat ranking for your own site

Open your site concept models in Miradi from yesterday and rank the threats at your site

Make a list of:-All the assumptions you have made while ranking the threats-Any outstanding questions / issues you would like to double check or triangulate-List people already consulted during application process on threats-Any people you have in mind that you would like to triangulate the ranking with

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Threat ranking graded assignment – 40 points, due Sunday 3 October 11:30 pm

Using Miradi rank the biodiversity threats to your own campaign site by scope, severity and irreversibility.

Then:Email your Miradi (MPZ) file to Annalisa & Ariela

Take a screen shot of your Threat ranking and post it on Rare Planet as a blog, listing assumptions, outstanding questions, any people you would like to validate the TR ranking with, anyone already consulted

send it & present it to your supervisor (aim to do this during the LAP call) and ask him/them for comments

Module 2, Unit 3, Session 2

Session Objectives

Did we meet these objectives?

•Identify the components of Threat Ranking•Evaluate and prioritize threats by Scope, Severity & Irreversibility

•Rank threats in Miradi•Create a draft Threat Ranking Assessment for Expert Validation for Campaign Site