session 1: protecng the asean community from evolving ... · session 1: protecng the asean...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving ... · Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving Polical-Security Challenges ASEAN and Japan Should Take a Firmer](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051603/5fed9ba7ec0fa62c563f11e7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Session1:Protec.ngtheASEANCommunity fromEvolvingPoli.cal-SecurityChallenges
ASEAN and Japan Should Take a Firmer
Stand to Build a Rule-based Order
Masashi Nishihara President
Research Institute for Peace and Security Tokyo
![Page 2: Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving ... · Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving Polical-Security Challenges ASEAN and Japan Should Take a Firmer](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051603/5fed9ba7ec0fa62c563f11e7/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Contents 1SouthChinaSeaToday2China’sStrategy3WhatCanBeDoneToHedgeChina? a.ASEAN’sRole b.TheUnitedStates’Role c.Japan’sRole4ASEANattheCenteroftheIndo-PacificOcean
![Page 3: Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving ... · Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving Polical-Security Challenges ASEAN and Japan Should Take a Firmer](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051603/5fed9ba7ec0fa62c563f11e7/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
1The South China Sea Today ChinaignoresTheHaguedecisionTheASEAN-ChinaCOCFrameworkisnotonterritorialresolu.onsChina’smilitaryaircraTwithfourairbasesChinacri.calofUSFONOVietnamandChinacri.calofeachother’sac.vi.es(militaryandoildrilling)
![Page 4: Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving ... · Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving Polical-Security Challenges ASEAN and Japan Should Take a Firmer](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051603/5fed9ba7ec0fa62c563f11e7/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
2 China’s Strategy To prevent ASEAN’s unity To achieve hegemony over and beyond the SC Sea To drive wedge between Japan and the US To drive US forces from the 2nd Island Chain To achieve hegemony in western Pacific and Indian Ocean(One Belt One Road)
![Page 5: Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving ... · Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving Polical-Security Challenges ASEAN and Japan Should Take a Firmer](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051603/5fed9ba7ec0fa62c563f11e7/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
China’s Airbase at Mischief Reef
![Page 6: Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving ... · Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving Polical-Security Challenges ASEAN and Japan Should Take a Firmer](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051603/5fed9ba7ec0fa62c563f11e7/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
![Page 7: Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving ... · Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving Polical-Security Challenges ASEAN and Japan Should Take a Firmer](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051603/5fed9ba7ec0fa62c563f11e7/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving ... · Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving Polical-Security Challenges ASEAN and Japan Should Take a Firmer](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051603/5fed9ba7ec0fa62c563f11e7/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
3 What Can Be Done to Hedge China?
3aASEAN’sRoleASEANshouldretainamul.lateralapproach
ASEANshouldconsiderformingaSouthChinaSeagroupASEANshouldmaintainclose.eswiththeUSanditsregionalpartners
![Page 9: Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving ... · Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving Polical-Security Challenges ASEAN and Japan Should Take a Firmer](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051603/5fed9ba7ec0fa62c563f11e7/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
3WhatCanBeDonetoHedgeChina? 3bTheUnitedStates’RoleAstrongJapan-USAllianceisakeytoIndo-PacificsecurityAstrongerJapan-Philippines-USalliancewouldbecrucialforafavorablebalanceofpowerUSshouldcon.nueitsFONOintheSCSeaUSshouldweigh.eswithAustraliaandIndia
![Page 10: Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving ... · Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving Polical-Security Challenges ASEAN and Japan Should Take a Firmer](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051603/5fed9ba7ec0fa62c563f11e7/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Prime Minister Abe and President Trump
![Page 11: Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving ... · Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving Polical-Security Challenges ASEAN and Japan Should Take a Firmer](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051603/5fed9ba7ec0fa62c563f11e7/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Japan-Philippines Bond
![Page 12: Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving ... · Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving Polical-Security Challenges ASEAN and Japan Should Take a Firmer](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051603/5fed9ba7ec0fa62c563f11e7/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
3WhatCanBeDonetoHedgeChina? 3cJapan’sRolePrimeMinisterAbehasaglobaloutlookinhisdiploma.cac.vi.esHeisac.veinregionalleadership,whichisfillingthegapcreatedbytheperceived decliningUSroleJapanshouldkeepthealliancewithUSendurableforIndo-Pacificsecurity
![Page 13: Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving ... · Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving Polical-Security Challenges ASEAN and Japan Should Take a Firmer](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051603/5fed9ba7ec0fa62c563f11e7/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
3 What Can Be Done to Hedge China? 3aJapan’sRole(con.nued)ASEANisatthegeographicalcenterofIndo-PacificregionJapanshouldworkforarule-basedorderJapanshouldsupportASEAN’s“capacity-building”andbalancingactJapanshouldencourageASEANtojoinTPP
![Page 14: Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving ... · Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving Polical-Security Challenges ASEAN and Japan Should Take a Firmer](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051603/5fed9ba7ec0fa62c563f11e7/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Japan's Sea Lines
![Page 15: Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving ... · Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving Polical-Security Challenges ASEAN and Japan Should Take a Firmer](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051603/5fed9ba7ec0fa62c563f11e7/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Indo-Pacific region
![Page 16: Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving ... · Session 1: Protecng the ASEAN Community from Evolving Polical-Security Challenges ASEAN and Japan Should Take a Firmer](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051603/5fed9ba7ec0fa62c563f11e7/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Thank you very much