sothea oum economic research institute for asean and east asia (eria) the 8th asia economic forum on...
TRANSCRIPT
Sothea OUMEconomic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia
(ERIA)
The 8th Asia Economic Forum on “ASEAN in the Evolving Regional Architecture: Opportunities, Challenges, and
Future Direction” Hotel Sofitel Phnom Penh Phokeethra, Phnom Penh, 16 -18
March 20121
The Voice of ASEAN Youth: ASEAN Priorities and Challenges
www.eria.org
3
Transformation of International Commerce - 2nd Unbundling in Manufacturing and Related service
Bay B
Bay A
Bay C
Bay B
Bay A
Bay C
Bay B
Bay A
Bay C
1) Two-way flows of goods, ideas, technology, capital, and technicians.
2) Investment and application of technical, managerial and market know-how abroad.
Connecting factory & doing business abroad: The “trade-investment-services nexus”
20th century
trade
21st century
trade
Source: Baldwin (2011)
1) Necessary trade & service linksConnecting factories- Trade policy barriers;- Transportation services;- Business mobility;- Communication services.
2) Necessary “Behind the border barriers” (BBB) reformDoing business abroad- International investment;- Application of home’s technology abroad;- Local availability of business services.
GDP ($m)
Trade ($m)
Intra-trade ($m) (%)
FDI ($m)
Intra-FDI ($m) (%)
GDP per capita ($)
Poverty (%)*
ASEAN 480,912.6 576,108.0 120,918.0 21.0 22,958.8 2,727.6 11.9 956.2 28.0 Cambodia 3,130.1 1,967.8 688.2 35.0 243.0 95.7 39.4 253.1 42.0 Laos 1,226.2 922.3 666.9 72.3 45.3 28.3 62.6 251.0 38.6 Myanmar 5,925.8 3,771.9 1,189.4 31.5 683.6 153.9 22.5 134.1 23.0 Vietnam 27,209.6 20,861.0 5,406.6 25.9 1,700.0 398.7 23.5 360.9 37.4
ASEAN 1,472,434.4 1,536,843.3 376,207.3 24.5 39,623.0 4,428.9 11.2 2542.2 16.0 Cambodia 10,797.9 8,886.7 2,097.9 23.6 530.2 170.8 32.2 768.4 30.1 Laos 5,585.0 2,962.1 2,478.2 83.7 318.6 57.3 18.0 885.7 27.6 Mynanmar 18,988.6 10,191.3 5,262.4 51.6 578.6 19.5 3.4 587.3 N.AVietnam 93,187.9 125,921.9 22,121.5 17.6 7,600.0 428.7 5.6 1068.3 14.5
ASEAN 3.06 2.67 3.11 1.2 1.73 1.62 0.9 2.66 0.6Cambodia 3.45 4.52 3.05 0.7 2.18 1.79 0.8 3.04 0.7Laos 4.55 3.21 3.72 1.2 7.03 2.02 0.3 3.53 0.7Myanmar 3.20 2.70 4.42 1.6 0.85 0.13 0.1 4.38 N.AVietnam 3.42 6.04 4.09 0.7 4.47 1.08 0.2 2.96 0.4
Source: ASEAN Secretariat, World Bank, IMF, UNCTAD, * Simple average for ASEAN (2008,2009)
2009/1998
ASEAN Socioeconomic Landscape 1998 - 2009
2009
1998
4
5
HDI and Its Components in EAS countries
HDI Rank Country
HDI Index
Life expectancy
(years)
Ave. years of
schooling
Exp. years of schooling
GNI per capita (PPP 2005 US$) 2011 2010
2 2 Australia 0.929 81.9 12.0 18.0 34,431
5 3 New Zealand 0.908 80.7 12.5 18.0 23,737
12 11 Japan 0.901 83.4 11.6 15.1 32,295
15 12 South Korea 0.897 80.6 11.6 16.9 28,230
26 27 Singapore 0.866 81.1 8.8 14.4 52,569
33 37 Brunei 0.838 78.0 8.6 14.1 45,753
61 57 Malaysia 0.761 74.2 9.5 12.6 13,685
101 89 China 0.687 73.5 7.5 11.6 7,476
103 92 Thailand 0.682 74.1 6.6 12.3 7,694
112 97 Philippines 0.644 68.7 8.9 11.9 3,478
124 108 Indonesia 0.617 69.4 5.8 13.2 3,716
128 113 Viet Nam 0.593 75.2 5.5 10.4 2,805
134 119 India 0.547 65.4 4.4 10.3 3,468
138 122 Lao PDR 0.524 67.5 4.6 9.2 2,242
139 124 Cambodia 0.523 63.1 5.8 9.8 1,848
149 132 Myanmar 0.483 65.2 4.0 9.2 1,535
Source: UNDP (2011).
Challenges: Closing Income Gaps
6
2010 ($USbillio
ns)
Av. Growth
2000-2010 (%)
2010 ( $US)
Av. Growth
2000-2010 (%)
GDP Per Capita
GDPGDP Per Capita
GDPGDP Per Capita
GDP
1 Brunei 12.37 1.52 29,674.82 (0.98) N.A N.A N.A N.A N.A N.A2 Cambodia 11.63 7.94 813.80 6.61 53.20 63.85 13.75 16.50 7.65 9.183 Indonesia 706.75 5.23 2,974.03 3.94 34.58 45.89 10.12 13.43 6.11 8.104 Lao PDR 6.46 7.05 1,003.71 5.17 50.02 68.27 13.15 17.95 7.39 10.095 Malaysia 237.96 5.02 8,423.18 2.96 21.27 36.07 7.29 12.37 4.89 8.296 Myanmar 45.43 10.67 742.44 8.49 54.61 68.66 14.01 17.61 7.75 9.757 Philippines 199.59 4.74 2,123.01 2.58 39.19 71.95 11.05 20.29 6.50 11.948 Singapore 222.70 6.00 43,116.69 3.62 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.009 Thailand 318.91 4.40 4,992.43 4.07 27.78 30.03 8.70 9.41 5.50 5.94
10 Vietnam 103.57 7.22 1,173.55 5.85 47.69 58.88 12.71 15.69 7.21 8.90Source: IMF (2011), World Economic Outlook 2011 and author's calculations
* By assuming that GDP Per capita in Singapore Grows at 3% Per Annum, in 2020 = 57,945, 2050=140,648, 2100=616,589. All else contant
Country
GDP GDP per CapitaRequired Annual Growth Rate for GDP Per Capita Covergence
to GDP Per Capita of Singapore*
2020 2050 2100
7
What does AEC look like in 2015?
AEC 2015 is more than FTA. It aims for a common market but not quite a single market. It is not a customs union and does not aim for economic and monetary union.
NOTE: Common Market range of nuance: from free movement of goods and freer flow of services, capital and labor on one end, and on the other end, a single market.
ASEAN
Challenges and Ways Forward
8
Challenges- Jobs, Jobs, and Jobs for new entrants to labor markets and business
opportunities- Master ASEAN language and new high skills to benefit from new
industries - Once AEC is further advanced, fiercer competition – standards and
conformance, technological gaps/frontiers, especially for SMEs - Structural/sectoral adjustments , skill mismatch, dislocation, losers
Ways forward- Be better informed and prepared for AEC – mechanism/safety net to
mitigate potential negative effects- ASEAN activism - proactive be it business, political or cultural,
policies that matter to youth – Raise your voice to be heard- Compassionate, prosper-thy-neighbors – within and beyond borders- You(th) are deserved and should demand for Quality of Education,
Education, and Education !!!- Streamlining ASEAN studies into education system