september 4, 2013seasonal and extended range prediction groupslide 1 forecast verification
TRANSCRIPT
September 4, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 1
Forecast VerificationForecast Verification
September 4, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 2
Forecast of Monsoon Onset over Kerala Based on 16 May 2013: 29 May 2013
Onset date forecasts are obtained from each 11
member of CFSv2 45 day forecast. Then ensemble mean is given as the final
forecasted onset date.Y axis on each panel is in
mm/day for rainfall (bars) and m/s for
850hPa wind(green line). Red circle is the onset
date and also written at the top of each panel
Onset declared by IMD: 1st June 2013
September 4, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 3
NCEP/TRMMAnalysis
Wind (850hPa)and R/F
Verification
CFSv2 GFSbc
F/C from16May IC
F/C from16May IC
September 4, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 4
NCEP/TRMMAnalysis
Wind (850hPa)and R/F
Verification
CFSv2 GFSbc
F/C from26May IC
F/C from26May IC
September 4, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 5
16 May IC 21 May IC
MISO F/C Verification FOR 25 DAYS
September 4, 2013 SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUP Slide 6
26 May IC 31 May IC
MISO F/C verification For 25 Days