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Joint Working Group Forecast Verification Research

Beth Ebert (BOM, Australia) co-chair

Laurie Wilson (CMC, Canada) co-chair

• Barb Brown (NCAR, USA)• Barbara Casati (Ouranos, Canada)• Caio Coelho (CPTEC, Brazil)• Anna Ghelli (ECMWF, UK)• Martin Göber (DWD, Germany)• Simon Mason (IRI, USA)• Marion Mittermaier (Met Office, UK)• Pertti Nurmi (FMI, Finland)• Joel Stein (Météo-France)• Yuejian Zhu (NCEP, USA)

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AimsVerification component of WWRP, in

collaboration with WGNE, WCRP, CBS

• Develop and promote new verification methods

• Training on verification methodologies

• Ensure forecast verification is relevant to users

• Encourage sharing of observational data

• Promote importance of verification as a vital part of experiments

• Promote collaboration among verification scientists, model developers and forecast providers

Collaborations•WWRP working groups•THORPEX

•GIFS-TIGGE•Subseasonal prediction•Polar prediction

•CBS•Severe Wx FDPs•Coordination Group on Forecast Verification

•SRNWP

•COST 731

•ECMWF TAC subgroup on verification measures

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FDPs and

RDPs

MAP D-PHASE

Severe Weather FDP

Typhoon Landfall FDP

Sydney 2000 FDP

Beijing 2008 FDP/RDP

SNOW-V10 RDP

Sochi 2014

a) International comparison

of many new spatial

verification methods

b) Methods applied by

researchers to same

datasets (precipitation;

perturbed cases; idealized cases)

c) Subjective forecast evaluations

d) Workshops: 2007, 2008, 2009

e) Weather and Forecasting special collection

Spatial Verification Method Intercomparison Project

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Outreach

• Verification workshops and

tutorials

– On-site, travelling

• EUMETCAL training modules

• Verification web page

• Sharing of tools

http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/verification/

Melbourne, December 2011

3-day tutorial + 3-day scientific workshop

Capacity building for FDPs/RDPs, SWFDP, etc.

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New focus areas for JWGFVR research

Spa

tial s

cale

Forecast lead time

"Seamless verification" - consistent across space/time scales

NWP

climatechange

local

point

regional

global

minutes hours days weeks months years decades

nowcasts

decadalprediction

seasonalprediction

sub-seasonalprediction

veryshortrange

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - RCM - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Spatial methods for verifying ensemble predictions

Neighborhood, scale-separation, feature-based, deformation