september 2015 u.s. employment update and outlook

U.S. employment situation: September 2013

Release date: October 22, 2013

Despite a slower-than-expected August jobs

report, strong underlying fundamentals exist

U.S. employment situation: August 2015 September 4, 2015

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRxqFQoTCMj16Pje3ccCFYwZPgodCl4P3A&url=http://wp.sbcounty.gov/cao/countywire/?cat%3D38&bvm=bv.101800829,d.cWw&psig=AFQjCNGi3chmIxsZYBLIjIY_Or8xZ36u0g&ust=1441468543469645

August 2015 employment summary

• August posted below-expected job growth of 173,000 net new jobs, which was also slower than the 200,000-250,000-range more common in

recent months. This is likely to be either aberrant, and may be potentially revised upward in future updates. Revisions to June and July data

meant that year-to-date growth now rests at slightly below 1.7 million new jobs.

• Unemployment fell by 10 basis points to 5.1 percent, while unemployment for college graduates continues to hover between 2.5 and 2.7

percent, slightly less than half the national rate, signifying labor shortage challenges potentially impeding growth in certain areas. In August,

the civilian labor force contracted by 40,000 people; combined with relatively sustained growth elsewhere, which helped to push down the

unemployment rate.

• Sustained employment and a looming talent crunch in major markets becoming more apparent have enabled wages to grow even more above

the rate of inflation, in part due to the ongoing collapse in energy prices. Private-sector wages are up 2.2 percent year-on-year, while those in

professional and business services are growing even faster at 2.7 percent. Both of these figures are 10 basis points higher than in July.

• Office-using industries contributed just 45,000 jobs to August’s growth, continuing a trend of somewhat muted office-using employment gains.

A 7,000-job contraction in information was the biggest contributor, although financial services is picking up steam and added 19,000 new jobs

over the month. On the other hand, manufacturing dropped by 17,000 jobs, while mining and logging posted losses of 10,000 jobs.

• At the market level, Silicon Valley’s annual job growth remains on the up and is now at 6.2 percent, the highest rate recorded for a JLL-tracked

market this cycle. Tech-heavy markets such as San Francisco and Seattle as well as the rapidly-growing Sun Belt markets such as the

Carolinas, South Florida and Texas remain leaders, although Houston is beginning to see a sharp slowdown in employment growth to 2.2

percent, compared to the nearly 4.0-percent growth just one year ago.

- Even slower-growth markets, particularly those in the Great Lakes, Midwest and Northeast, posted small but significant bumps in annual

growth rates.

Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

August 2015 labor market at a glance

+173,000 (59 consecutive months

of growth) 1-month net change

+2,919,000 (+2.1 y-o-y)

12-month change

+780,900

10-year average annual growth


5.1%

Unemployment rate

-100bp

12-month change in unemployment

8.4%

10-year average unemployment

5,249,000 (+12.3% y-o-y)

Job openings

5,177,000 (+7.4% y-o-y)

Hires

2,748,000 (+11.3% y-o-y)

Quits

August saw moderately slower growth than previous months,

although revisions in June and July boost YTD totals 36

0,00

0 22

6,00

0 24

3,00

0 96

,000

11

0,00

0 88

,000

10

6,00

0 12

2,00

0 22

1,00

0 18

3,00

0 16

4,00

0 196,

000

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00

160,

000

150,

000

161,

000

225,

000

203,

000

214,

000

197,

000

280,

000

141,

000

203,

000

199,

000

201,

000

149,

000

202,

000

164,

000

237,

000 27

4,00

0 84

,000

16

6,00

0 18

8,00

0 225,

000

330,

000

236,

000

286,

000

249,

000

213,

000 25

0,00

0 22

1,00

0 42

3,00

0 32

9,00

0 20

1,00

0 26

6,00

0 11

9,00

0 22

1,00

0 260,

000

245,

000

245,

000

173,

000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep

-11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-1

2

Sep

-12

Nov

-12

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-1

5

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

4


Unemployment drops by 20bp to 5.1 percent due to sustained

job growth, but also a 41,000-person drop in the labor force

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Monthly employment change Unemployment rate


5

Job openings are at record highs, up 12.3 percent year-on-year

to nearly 5.3 million in May


6

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Job

open

ings

(th

ousa

nds)

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

Con

sum

er c

onfid

ence

inde

x Although August registered slower employment growth, the

consumer confidence rebounded to 101.5 points


7

-17.0

-12.0

-10.0

-7.0

-5.0

-4.0

1.5

3.0

5.7

7.3

10.7

11.2

11.2

19.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

56.4

62.0

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

Manufacturing

Nondurable goods

Mining and logging

Information

Durable goods

Other services

Utilities

Construction

Motor vehicles and parts

Transportation and warehousing

Temporary help services

Wholesale trade

Retail trade

Financial activities

Government

Leisure and hospitality

Professional and business services

Health care and social assistance

Education and health services

1-month net change (thousands)

Education and health led an otherwise quieiter August,

accounting for 35.8 percent of gains


8

Education and health

PBS


All other subsectors

Top three

subsectors

responsible for

74.0 percent of

monthly

growth.

Contractions in manufacturing and mining resulted saw goods-

producing employment decline by 24,000 jobs in August

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Goods-producing Service-providing


9

-80.0

11.0

32.0

44.0

46.1

61.0

80.0

87.5

119.9

124.0

130.0

140.9

170.0

219.0

332.5

439.0

564.1

611.0

641.0

-200 0 200 400 600 800

Mining and logging

Utilities

Information

Nondurable goods

Motor vehicles and parts

Other services

Durable goods

Wholesale trade

Temporary help services

Manufacturing

Government

Transportation and warehousing


Construction

Retail trade


Health care and social assistance

Education and health services

Professional and business services

12-month net change (thousands)

PBS

Education and health


Retail trade


Manufacturing

All other jobs

Mining and logging due to energy market reset posted greater

annual losses at -80,000 as of August


10

Core subsectors added 79.4 percent

of all jobs over the past 12 months.

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Une

mpl

oym

ent (

%)

Unemployment for bachelor’s degree holders essentially at

“full” levels of 2.5-2.7 percent; 2.5 percent in August


11

Tech reaches even greater rates of growth (+6.1 percent), while

energy continues to plummet

-11.0

-9.0

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm

Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through July 2015.

12

12-m

onth

% c

hang

e (jo

bs)

Tech job creation hovers slightly above 6.0 percent with

sustained industry demand Year-on-year percent employment growth


13

Weekly claims over the course of 2015 have fallen to an average

of around 270,000

Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor

14

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

Cla

ims

Initial claims 4-week moving average

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Hire

s an

d qu

its (

thou

sand

s)

Hires Quits

Hires and quits continue to rise as employee confidence

improves, up 7.4 and 11.3 percent, respectively


Silicon Valley job creation rate rose again to 6.2 percent year-on-

year, continuing to lead among major markets


16

Silicon Valley

6.2%

San

Francisco

4.4%

Fort

Lauderdale

3.4%

Seattle

3.8%

Dallas

3.7%

Charlotte

3.6%

Austin

3.6%

Some East Coast and Midwestern markets are still growing

slower, but have seen a small bump of late

17


Hampton

Roads

1.4%

St. Louis

1.6%

Milwaukee

1.6%

Cleveland

1.4%

Philadelphia

1.5%

Total unemployment fell by another 10bp to 10.3 percent in

August and is now beginning to approach pre-recession levels

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

Total unemployment U-6 10-year average


18

In absolute terms, the labor force fell by 41,000 people, while

the rate stayed at its low of 62.6 percent


19

60.0%

61.0%

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

65.0%

66.0%

67.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Labo

r fo

rce

part

icip

atio

n ra

te (

%)

Net contraction of 7,000 jobs in information combined with

slower PBS growth reduced office-using share of additions


20

Financial activities has begun to rebound, but slower PBS

growth and drops in information have dragged drown gains

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Information Professional and business services Financial activities


21

For the first time, temporary help services employment

surpassed the 2.9-million mark despite contracting in July

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

3,000.0

3,500.0

-100.0

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mon

thly

net

cha

nge

in jo

bs (

ths)

Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment

Temporary em

ployment (ths)


22

©2015 Jones Lang LaSalle Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.

For more information, please contact:

Ben Breslau

Managing Director - Americas Research

[email protected]

John Sikaitis

Managing Director - Office and Local Markets Research

[email protected]

Phil Ryan

Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research

[email protected]

Or, find more employment, business and real estate

research at jll.com.

>>> Click here to check it out.

mailto:[email protected]



http://www.us.jll.com/united-states/en-us/research?utm_source=slideshare&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=aug15employment

september 2015 u.s. employment update and outlook

Economy & Finance