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Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002- 2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

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Page 1: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012

Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

Alexandra HallDirector, Labor Market Information

Page 2: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Industry

Individual companies conducting similar business

Agriculture Mining Construction Manufacturing

Page 3: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Industry

Individual companies conducting similar business

Tourism

Hi-Tech

Page 4: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)

Eventually all Labor Market Information publications will use the NAICS.

Developed in cooperation with Canada and Mexico, NAICS lets analysis cross borders.

NAICSBased on:

work performed

by an industry.

SICBased on:

What is

produced

by an industry.

Page 5: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

OccupationWork in which people engage to earn a living

Accountant Secretary Flight Attendant Surgeon Software Engineer Network Analyst

Page 6: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

OccupationWork in which people engage to earn a living

Customer Service Representative

Administrative Assistant

Page 7: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1939

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1955

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1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

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1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Colorado Employment and Recessions 1939 - 2003

"A recession is a significant decline in activity spread across the economy lasting more than a few

months."

Page 8: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

$33,327

$42,540

$52,031

$13,934

$27,625

$35,565

$29,112

$27,664

$70,467

$60,805

$34,114

$55,076

$63,171

$38,437

$52,204

$24,190

$48,657

$39,218

$64,297

$64,866

$22,684

Local Gov.

State Gov.

Federal Gov.

Accommodation and food services

Arts, entertainment, and recreation

Health care and social assistance

Educational services

Administrative and waste services

Management of companies & enterprises

Professional and technical services

Real estate and rental and leasing

Finance and insurance

Information

Transportation and Warehousing

Wholesale trade

Retail Trade

Manufacturing

Construction

Utilities

Mining

Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting Average Industry Salary

Page 9: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

ES-202 Quarterly report Measures industry employment and average wages All counties and statewide Derived from quarterly Unemployment Insurance reports Accounts for about 98% of Colorado employers.

Page 10: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Current Employment Statistics Monthly survey of

businesses Estimates levels of

employment by industry Statewide, Denver-Boulder,

and Colorado Springs. Current non-farm

employment, hours and earnings by industry group.

Benchmarking

Page 11: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Occupational Employment Statistics

Wage Survey of 22,000 employers

EmployersJob SeekersOccupational ProjectionsRelease in November

and May each year

Page 12: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Occupational Employment Outlook

Estimates outlook for 700 occupations– Fastest Growing– Rapidly Declining

Published every two years

Projects 10 year spanJust released through

2012

Page 13: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Employment Outlook: 2002-12Projections Process

Labor force

– Economic growth

– Industry employment

– Occupational employment

Page 14: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Number of live births, 1920-2002

0

1

2

3

4

5

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Baby boomers

Millions

Page 15: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Population 2000Millions Men Women

12 121010 868 6 44 22 0 0

85+80-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-5940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14

5-90-4

Age

Source: Bureau of the Census

Page 16: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Population, projected 2010Millions Men Women

12 121010 868 6 44 22 0 0

85+80-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-5940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14

5-90-4

Age

Source: Bureau of the Census

Page 17: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Colorado’s Population 2000Men Women

90+85-8980-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14

5-90-4

Age

100806040200 120 140 160 180 200100120140160180200 80 60 40 20 0

Source: Colorado State Demographer’s Office

Page 18: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Colorado’s Population 2010

100806040200 120 140 160 180 200100120140160180200 80 60 40 20 0

Men Women90+

85-8980-8475-7970-7465-6960-6455-5950-5445-4940-4435-3930-3425-2920-2415-1910-14

5-90-4

Age

Source: Colorado State Demographer’s Office

Page 19: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Population growth rates

1.41.7

1.31.0 0.9 1.0 1.1

1940-50 1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000

2002-12

Annual rates of change

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

projected

Page 20: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

The civilian labor force, ages 16 and older, will grow by 1.1 percent annually between

2002 and 2012.

1.1

1.7

2.6

1.6

1.1 1.1 1.1

1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 1992-02 2002-12

Annual rates of change

projected

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 21: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

The size of the civilian labor force ages 55-64 will increase significantly

Projected numerical change, 2002-12

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2,011

3,210

-2,493

4,429

8,308

1,94165 and over

55 to 64

45 to 54

35 to 44

25 to 34

16 to 24

Page 22: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Labor force participation rate by sex

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Percent, 1952-2002 and projected 2002-2012

86.4

73.1

33.9

61.6

0

20

40

60

80

100

1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012

Total

Men

Women

projected

Page 23: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

21.7

12.014.3

8.7

14.3

10.0

1982-92 1992-2002 2002-12

Women Men

Women’s labor forcegrowth outpaces men’sPercent change

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

projected

Page 24: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Women’s share of the labor force continues to edge up

4345 47 48

57 55 54 53

1982 1992 2002 2012 1982 1992 2002 2012

Women Men

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Percent of labor force

projectedprojected

Page 25: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Labor force growth rates of minorities outpaces whites

51

33

19

912

Asian Hispanic Black White Total

Percent change, 2002-12

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 26: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Whites remain thelargest group of workers

82.9 80.3

12.4 14.7 11.4 12.2

4.1 5.51.5 2.0

White Hispanic Black Asian All other

2002 2012

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Percent of labor force

Page 27: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Colorado

3,294.394

4,335.540

5,137.928

1,978.461

2,723.376

3,442.908

1990 2000 2012,Projected

1990 2000 2012,Projected

Population Labor Force

Page 28: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

32%

18%

38%

23%

1990-2000 2000-2012 1990-2000 2000-2012

Population Labor Force

Colorado

Page 29: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Employment Outlook: 2002-12Projections Process

– Labor forceEconomic growth

– Industry employment

– Occupational employment

Page 30: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

A healthy economy isprojected through 2012

3.0

5.2

2.1

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Selected economic variables

GDP(annual growthrate, projected

2002-12)

Unemploymentrate, 2012(assumed)

Productivity(annual growthrate, projected

2002-12)

Page 31: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

The 2002-12 projections assume a 3.0 percent real GDP growth rate

Average annual rate of change4.0

4.4

3.23.0

3.43.2 3.0

1949-1959

1959-1969

1969-1979

1979-1989

1989-2000

1992-2002

2002-2012

projected

Page 32: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Average annual rate of change

2.7

1.9

1.51.9

1.5

2.32.1

60Q2-69Q4

69Q4-80Q1

80Q1-90Q3

90Q3-01Q1

90Q3-95Q1

95Q1-01Q1

'02-12

Annual rate of growth of output per hour, nonfarm business, comparison of selected

business cycle expansionary periods

projected

Page 33: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Annualized growth rates of labor productivity during recessions

Average annual rate of change

0.5

2.7

0.1

-1.2

-0.1-1.0

4.4

60Q2-61Q1

69Q4-70Q4

73Q4-75Q1

80Q1-80Q3

81Q3-82Q4

90Q3-91Q1

01Q1-01Q4

Page 34: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Percent

5.5

3.5

5.85.3

4.0

5.2

1959 1969 1979 1989 2000 2012,projected

The 2002-12 projections assume a5.2 percent unemployment rate

Page 35: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Employment Outlook: 2002-12Projections Process

– Labor force

– Economic growthIndustry output and

employment

– Occupational employment

Page 36: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Nationally, total employment is projected to increase by 4.8 percent or 21.3 million.

Nonfarm wage and salary employment is projected to increase by 21.6 million

Millions of jobs

144.0

165.3

131.1

152.7

2002 2012, 2002 2012,projected projected

Total employment

Nonfarm wage and

salary employment

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 37: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Total employment is projected to increase by23 percent or 551,600.

Nonfarm wage and salary employment is projected to increase by 272,000

2.36

2.91

2.19

2.72

2002 2012, Projected

Total employmentNonfarm wage and salary employment

Millions of jobs

Colorado

Page 38: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Service-providing industriescontinue to lead employment growth

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

22.0 22.6 23.3

87.5

108.5

129.3

1992 2002 2012 1992 2002 2012

Goods-producing

Service-providing

projected projected

Millions of nonfarm wage and salary jobs

Page 39: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

159302

376

444

685688

866951

965

998

1,065

1,290

2,0892,498

3,880

Mining

Utilities

Federal government

Other services

Transportation and warehousing

Leisure and hospitality

Construction

Wholesale trade

Information

State and local government

Retail trade

Education and health services

Professional and business services

Financial activities

Manufacturing

Manufacturing, financial activities and professional and business services accounted

for nearly half of total output in 2002

Billions of dollarsService ProvidingGoods Producing

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 40: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

512600

1,9223,420

5,0505,6416,1056,732

7,8437,851

11,96915,04715,30716,01016,184

Mining

Utilities

Federal government

Information

Transportation and warehousing

Wholesale trade

Other services

Construction

Financial activities

State and local government (ex. educ. and hosp.)

Leisure and hospitality

Retail trade

Manufacturing

Professional and business services

Education and health services

Education and health services and professional and business services accounted for nearly 40

percent of employment in 2002

Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs

Service ProvidingGoods Producing

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 41: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

2,175

8,15812,900

18,88441,708

47,84080,958

93,56195,27199,425

106,139130,404

143,532158,333160,497161,850

166,961174,625

202,334205,801

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting

Utilities -397

Mining

Management of Companies & Enterprises

Arts, Entertainment & Recreation

Real Estate & Rental & Leasing

Transportation & Warehousing

Information

Wholesale Trade

Other Services

Finance & Insurance

Administrative, Support, Waste Management & Remediation Services

Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

Self-Employed and Unpaid Family Workers, Primary J ob

Construction

Government

Manufacturing

Educational Services

Health Care & Social Assistance

Accommodation & Food Services

Retail Trade 244,085

In Colorado, Retail Trade, Accommodation & Food Services and Health Care & Social Services accounted

for nearly a third of total employment in 2002

Service ProvidingGoods Producing

Page 42: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

50

632

638

914

960

964

1,014

2,082

2,135

2,518

4,866

5,145

Federal Government

Information

Wholesale trade

Transportation and warehousing

Other services

Financial activities

Construction

Retail trade

Leisure and hospitality

State and local government

Professional and business services

Education and health services

Education and health services and professional and business services account for

nearly half of projected total employment growth

Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs, 2002-12

Service Providing

Goods Producing

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 43: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

2,2897,761

15,07922,316

55,387

57,247102,036

107,528

110,703116,921

130,149166,142

180,624

186,033190,624

191,205

204,555230,537

254,050280,814

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting

Utilities -397

Mining

Management of Companies & Enterprises

Arts, Entertainment & Recreation

Real Estate & Rental & Leasing

Transportation & Warehousing

Information

Wholesale Trade

Other Services

Finance & Insurance

Administrative, Support, Waste Management & Remediation Services

Construction

Self-Employed and Unpaid Family Workers, Primary Job

Manufacturing

Government

Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

Educational Services

Accommodation & Food Services

Health Care & Social Assistance

Retail Trade 295,046

Service ProvidingGoods Producing

Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs

In Colorado, Retail Trade, Accommodation & Food Services, Health Care & Social Services and Educational Services will

account for more than a third of projected total 2012 employment

Page 44: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Three industries are projected to have declines in employment

726600 565 610

512 451

16,799

15,30715,149

Utilities Mining Manufacturing

1992 2002 2012, projected

Thousands of non-farm wage and salary jobs

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 45: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

In Colorado, only the Utilities industry is

projected to decline15,225

8,158 7,761

1992 2002 2012

Page 46: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Three of the 10 fastest-growing detailed industries over 2002-12 are computer

related, two are health related.

43

46

46

46

47

54

55

55

55

68Software publishers

Management, scientific and technical consulting servicesCommunity care facilities for the elderlyComputer systems design and related servicesEmployment services

Vocational rehabilitation services

Ambulatory health care servicesWater, sewage and other systems

Internet services and data processing servicesChild day care services

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Percent change

Page 47: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

60.4%

61.3%

61.7%

62.0%

65.6%

67.7%

70.6%

77.0%

77.7%

106.2%Community Care Facilities for the Elderly

Internet Publishing & Broadcasting

Veneer, Plywood & Engineered Plywood Manufacturing

Drugs & Druggiiests' Sundries Merchant Wholesalers

Computer Systems Design & Related Services

Support Activities for Road Transportation

Other Non-Metallic Mineral Product Manufacturing

Nonscheduled Air Transportation

Management, Scientific & Technical Consulting Services

Other Ambulatory Health Care Services

Of Colorado’s 10 fastest-growing detailed industries 2002-12 two are health related, two are transportation

related and two are manufacturing related.

Page 48: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

638

670

670

759

1,014

1,229

1,337

1,730

1,764

2,082

Wholesale trade

State and local general government

Ambulatory health care services

Educational services

Construction

Office of health practitioners

Food services and drinking places

State and local government education

Employment services

Retail trade

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs

The 10 detailed industries with the most new jobs, projected 2002-12

Page 49: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

The 10 detailed industries with the most new jobs, projected 2002-12

9,275

11,275

13,221

14,369

15,877

21,453

22,540

23,717

24,139

55,912

Other Amusement and Recreation Industries

Offices of Physicians

Limited-Service Eating Places

Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services

Services to Buildings and Dwellings

Local Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals

General Medical and Surgical Hospitals

Full-Service Restaurants

Computer Systems Design and Related Services

Educational Services

Page 50: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Detailed industries with faster than average employment and output growth

Detailed industries with:– employment growth greater than 14.8%

– and average annual output growth rates greater than the overall average of 3.3%.

These industries accounted for:– 21.3% of employment in 2002– and are projected to account for 45% of

employment growth from 2002-2012

National

Page 51: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Detailed industries with faster than average employment and output growth

If you include industries with:– faster than average employment growth – and average annual output growth of at least 2%

per year:

These industries accounted for:– 38% of employment in 2002– and are projected to account for 65% of

employment growth from 2002-2012

National

Page 52: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater

than 2% per yearManufacturing

– Plastics product manufacturing (128,000)*– Animal slaughtering and processing (80,000)– Architectural and structural metals mfg (77,000)– Pharmaceutical and medicine mfg (68,000)– Other wood product mfg (67,000)– Other general purpose machinery mfg (51,000)– Cement and concrete product mfg (48,000)– Metalworking machinery mfg (34,000)– Veneer, plywood mfg (21,000)– Forging and stamping (18,000)

* Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12

National

Page 53: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater

than 2% per yearUtilities and waste management

– Water, sewage and other systems (23,000)*

Transportation and warehousing– Truck transportation, couriers and messengers

(507,000)– Scenic and sightseeing transportation

(100,000)

* Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12

National

Page 54: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater

than 2% per yearInformation

– Internet services, data processing (244,000)*– Software publishers (174,000)– Motion picture and sound recording industries

(116,000)

Financial activities– Non-depository credit intermediation (196,000)– Consumer goods and general rental centers (131,000)– Securities, commodity contracts (124,000)– Commercial and industrial machinery rental (41,000)

* Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12

National

Page 55: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater

than 2% per year

Education and health services – Offices of health practitioners (1,229,000)*– Ambulatory health care services (670,000)– Hospitals (632,000)– Individual, family, community and voc rehab

services (597,000)– Nursing care and residential mental health

facilities (559,000)– Child day care services (382,000)

* Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12

National

Page 56: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater

than 2% per year

Leisure and hospitality– Food services and drinking places (1,337,000)*– Amusement, gambling, and recreation industries

(410,000)– Traveler accommodation (293,000)– Performing art companies, promoters, agents,

managers, and independent artists (37,000)– Museums, historical sites, and similar institutions

(24,000)– RV parks, recreational camps, and rooming and boarding

houses (8,000)

* Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12

National

Page 57: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater than 2% per year

Other services– Religious, grant making and giving services,

and social advocacy organizations (428,000) *– Automotive repair and maintenance (149,000)– Personal care services (144,000)– Other personal services (51,000)– Commercial and industrial equipment (except

automotive and electronic) repair and maintenance (29,000)

State and local government– State and local electric utilities (14,000)

* Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12

National

Page 58: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Colorado Employment Growth 2002-2012

-397

1142,179

3,4329,407

13,67913,967

15,43217,496

20,12721,078

23,66324,010

27,70029,355

35,73848,249

50,96155,912

61,023

Utilities -397

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting

Mining

Management of Companies & Enterprises

Real Estate & Rental & Leasing

Arts, Entertainment & Recreation

Information

Wholesale Trade

Other Services

Construction

Transportation & Warehousing

Manufacturing

Finance & Insurance

Self-Employed and Unpaid Family Workers, Primary J ob

Government

Administrative, Support, Waste Management & Remediation Services

Accommodation & Food Services

Retail Trade

Educational Services

Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

Health Care & Social Assistance 78,480

Page 59: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth greater than 2.3% per year

Colorado

Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (61,023)– Computer Systems Design and Related Services (24,139)– Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services (7,658)– Specialized Design Services (977)– Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services (14,369)– Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (3,866)– Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, and Payroll Services (3,456)– Scientific Research and Development Services (2,518)

Page 60: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

ColoradoDetailed industries with faster than average

employment growth greater than 2.3% per yearHealth Care & Social Assistance (78,480)

–Community Care Facilities for the Elderly (7,758) –Other Ambulatory Health Care Services (1,811)–Home Health Care Services (4,898)–Outpatient Care Centers (5,082)–Individual and Family Services (5,670)–General Medical and Surgical Hospitals (22,540)–Offices of Physicians (11,275)–Offices of Other Health Practitioners (3,225)–Child Day Care Services (4,329)–Offices of Dentists (4,039)–Vocational Rehabilitation Services (1,033)–Nursing Care Facilities (4,775)

Page 61: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Colorado

Arts, Entertainment & Recreation ( 13,679 )– Independent Artists, Writers, and Performers (381)– Promoters of Performing Arts, Sports, and Similar Events (440)– Gambling Industries (1,775)– Other Amusement and Recreation Industries (9,275)– Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar Institution (552)– Amusement Parks and Arcades (537)– Spectator Sports (480)

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth greater than 2.3% per year

Page 62: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Colorado

Transportation & Warehousing (21,078)–Support Activities for Road Transportation (784)–Nonscheduled Air Transportation (595)–Local Messengers and Local Delivery (586)–Freight Transportation Arrangement (847)–Warehousing and Storage (4,146)–Scheduled Air Transportation (5,145)–Urban Transit Systems (225)–Specialized Freight Trucking (2,605)–Interurban and Rural Bus Transportation (137)

Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth greater than 2.3% per year

Page 63: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Administrative, Support, Waste Management & Remediation Services 35,738 – Services to Buildings and Dwellings 15,877 – Investigation and Security Services 4,089 – Business Support Services 5,625 – Waste Collection 866 – Other Support Services 1,735

Educational Services 55,912

ColoradoDetailed industries with faster than average

employment growth greater than 2.3% per year

Page 64: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Employment Outlook: 2002-12Projections Process

– Labor force

– Economic growth

– Industry employmentOccupational employment

Page 65: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

There are 22 major occupation groups

Of these, 14 are projected to grow faster than average. Together, they:

– Accounted for 45% of employment in 2002

– And are projected to account for 65% of employment change 2002-12

National

Page 66: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Major occupational groups projected to grow faster than average (14.8%)

21

25

25

26

26

35

35

Business and financialoperations

Protective service

Education, training andlibrary

Healthcare practitioners

Community and socialservices

Healthcare support

Computer andmathematical

Percent change, projected 2002-12

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 67: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Major occupational groups projected to grow faster than average (14.8%)

15

16

16

16

17

17

21

Construction and extraction

Food preparation andserving

Legal

Building and groundscleaning and maintenance

Art, design, media

Life, physical and socialscience

Personal care and service

Percent change, projected 2002-12

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 68: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Major occupational groups projected to grow slower than average (14.8%)

3

3

7

9

12

13

13

14

Production

Farming, fishing, and forestry

Office and administrative support

Architecture and engineering

Management

Sales and related

Transportation and material moving

Installation, maintenance, and repair

Percent change, projected 2002-12

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 69: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

11 major occupations are projected to have a net employment increase of more than 1 million

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Thousands of jobs, projected 2002-12

1,051

1,096

1,143

1,162

1,221

1,282

1,607

1,613

1,708

1,971

2,109

Computer and mathematical

Construction and extraction

Healthcare support

Business and financial operations

Management

Transportation and material moving

Food preparation and serving related

Office and administrative support

Healthcare practitioners

Sales and related

Education, training and library

Percent change projected to be greater than average (14.8%)Percent change projected to be less than average

Page 70: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Colorado Top 15 Growth Occupations 2002-2012

6,520

6,700

7,220

7,630

7,710

7,980

8,870

10,100

10,890

11,250

11,770

11,990

12,600

13,020

16,640

Sales Representatives, Wholesale andManufacturing

Receptionists and Information Clerks

Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers

Computer Software Engineers, Applications

Business Operations Specialists, All Other

General and Operations Managers

Office Clerks, General

Postsecondary Teachers

Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids andHousekeeping Cleaner

Cashiers

Combined Food Prep. & Serving Workers,Including Fast Food

Customer Service Representatives

Waiters and Waitresses

Registered Nurses

Retail Salespersons

Page 71: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

.8 1.3

1.1 1.5

3.0

1.3 2.2

2.4 2.9

2.0 4.9

1.6 5.9

6.5 5.3

5.3 7.6

Farming, fishing, and forestry

Installation, maintenance, and repair

Construction and extraction

Production

Transportation and material moving

Management, business, and financial

Sales and related

Office and administrative support

Professional and related

Service

Change in employment

Net replacement needs

Job openings from replacement needs exceed those from employment growth

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Millions of jobs, projected 2002-12

13.0

11.8

7.5

6.9

5.3

3.5

2.5

3.4

.3

2.1

Page 72: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Six of the ten fastest growing detailed occupations are health related, three are computer related

Percent change, projected 2002-12

45

45

46

46

47

48

49

49

57

Medical assistants

Network systems and data communications analysts

Social and human service assistants

Home health aides

Medical records and health information technicians

Physical therapist aides

Computer software engineers, applications

Computer software engineers, systems software

Physical therapist assistants

59

Physicians assistants

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 73: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

26 detailed occupations will each grow by more than 200,000 – and all but 3 will grow

faster than average (14.8%)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Numerical change in thousands, projected 2002-12

337

343

376

414

454

454

460

596

603

623Registered nurses

General and operations managers

Waiters and waitresses

Postsecondary teachers

Retail salespersons

Customer service representatives Combined food preparation and serving Cashiers, except gaming

Janitors and cleaners

Nursing aides, orderlies, attendants

Page 74: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

26 detailed occupations will each grow by more than 200,000 – and all but 3 will grow faster

than average (14.8%)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Numerical change in thousands, projected 2002-12

237

246

279

279

290

294

310

317

325

337Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer

Home health aides

Personal and home care aides

Receptionists and information clerks

Security guards

Office clerks, general

Teacher assistants

All other business operations specialistsSales, whole/ mfg, except tech & science

Truck drivers, light or delivery

Page 75: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

26 detailed occupations will each grow by more than 200,000 – and all but 3 will grow faster

than average (14.8%)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Numerical change in thousands, projected 2002-12

205

207

215

223

229

237Landscaping and groundskeeping workers

All other teachers, primary, secondary, adult

Elementary school teachers, except special education

Medical assistants

Maintenance and repair workers, general

Accountants and auditors

Page 76: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Top ten occupations generally requiring a bachelor’s degree or higher that are projected

to grow faster than average, by earnings2002 average annual earnings

$86,110

$86,280

$87,170

$90,440

$95,440

$105,890

$107,430

$122,230

$134,960

$151,153Physicians and surgeons

Chief executives

Podiatrists

Lawyers

Optometrists

Computer/information system mgrs

Marketing managers

Health diagnosing and treating

Sales managers

Airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 77: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Top ten occupations generally requiring an associate degree that are projected to grow

faster than average, by earnings

2002 average annual earnings

$39,380

$40,590

$40,700

$42,320

$43,280

$49,840

$52,260

$57,790

$57,960

$60,110Radiation therapists

All other computer specialists

Nuclear medicine technologists

Registered nurses

Diagnostic medical sonographers

Forensic science technicians

Computer support specialists

Respiratory therapists

Paralegal and legal assistants

Dental hygienists

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 78: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Top ten occupations generally requiring long-term on-the-job training that are projected to

grow faster than average, by earnings

2002 average annual earnings

$42,630

$42,820

$43,120

$43,390

$43,750

$43,910

$45,750

$48,240

$50,460

$53,549Elevator installers and repairers

Flight attendants

Transit and railroad police

Electricians

Fine artists (painters, sculptors, illustrators)

Police and sheriff patrol officers

All other media and communication workers

Actors

Plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters

Musicians and singers

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 79: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Top ten occupations generally requiring moderate-term on-the-job training that are projected to grow

faster than average, by earnings

2002 average annual earnings

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

$35,610

$35,700

$36,350

$37,580

$37,620

$39,530

$40,550

$42,350

$51,130

Sales reps, wholesale and manufacturing, technical and scientific

Sales reps, wholesale and mfg, non technical and scientific

Tapers

All other communication equipment workers

Sheet metal workers

All other mechanics, installers and repairers

Drywall and ceiling tile installers

Painters, transportation equipment

Hazardous materials removal workers

All other sales and related

$63,4600

Page 80: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Colorado computer and mathematical occupations will continue to grow at the highest rate

30.2%

29.6%

29.1%

28.9%

28.5%

27.6%

25.4%

25.1%

24.5%

35.6%

39.1%

40.9%

41.5%Computer & Mathematical

Healthcare Support

Healthcare Practitioners & Technical

Education, Training, & Library

Protective Services

Community & Social Services

Personal Care & Service

Business & Financial Operations

Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance

Life, Physical & Social Science

Management

Architecture & Engineering

Food Preparation & Serving Related

Page 81: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Colorado most job losses 2002-2012

-20

-30

-40

-80

-120

-150

-160

-180

-190

-230

-240

-290

-300

-470

-630

Radio Mechanics

Communications Equipment Operators, All Other

Nuclear Engineers

Meter Readers, Utilities

Prepress Technicians and Workers

Bindery Workers

Order Clerks

Travel Agents

Brokerage Clerks

Loan Interviewers and Clerks

Data Entry Keyers

Telemarketers

Computer Operators

Electrical and Electronic Equipment Assemblers

Word Processors and Typists

Source: Colorado Labor Market Information

Page 82: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

70%

8%

22%

68%

8%

24%

2002 2012

In Colorado expect a slight increase in the proportion of jobs requiring

Bachelor's degrees or higher

896 thousand jobs

683 thousand jobs

1,937 thousand jobs1,614 thousand

jobs

Page 83: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

In Colorado, about 30% of job growthwill be from positions requiring a

post-secondary education

168,900

83,660

31,270

39,510

22,580

30,780

105,190

29,010

8,400

10,896

5,510 First professional degree

Doctoral degree

Master's degree

Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experienc

Bachelor's degree

Associate degree

Postsecondary vocational training

Work experience in a related occupation

Long-term on-the-job training

Moderate-term on-the-job training

Short-term on-the-job training

Bachelor's degree or higherPost-secondary education less than B.A.Work related training

Page 84: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Most job openings: Bachelor’s degree or higher 2002-2012

80

80

90

120

170

180

190

200

210

250

290

300

340

500

1420

Advertising and Promotions Managers

Vocational Education Teachers, Secondary School

Education Administrators, Postsecondary

Human Resources Managers

Marketing Managers

Education Administrators, Elementary and Secondary School

Chief Executives

Administrative Services Managers

Medical and Health Services Managers

Engineering Managers

Computer and Information Systems Managers

Sales Managers

Financial Managers

Management Analysts

General and Operations Managers

Source: Colorado Labor Market Information

Page 85: Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado 2002-2012 Colorado Department of Labor and Employment Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information

Education Pays for Coloradans

$24,340

$31,363

$34,563

$40,773

$42,129

$45,989

$51,696

$55,866

$74,625

$74,644

$92,454

Short-term on-the-job training

Moderate-term on-the-job training

Postsecondary vocational training

Long-term on-the-job training

Associate degree

Work experience in a related occupation

Master's degree

Bachelor's degree

Doctoral degree

Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experienc

First professional degree