sentiment analysis report for we 200412

8/2/2019 Sentiment Analysis Report for WE 200412

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Market Sentiment Analysis for WE 200412

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Sentiment Analysis Report W/E April 20, 2012Sunday, April 21, 2012/ Proshare Research

The Diagnosis

Analysis of the market activity in the week ended April 20th 2012 would indicate animproving air of optimism and positive sentiments backed with active bargain activitiesas seen in the investors trading pattern compared to last weekspessimism and negative

sentiments laced with a profit taking propensity.

In the week just ended, a lot more bargain sentimentwas observed across the baord asmarket sentiments turned positive, mainly towards active and liquid stocks. However,renewed and continued moderate bargain tendency was experienced in few attractivesectors as speculators appear to be in control of market direction - a major reason forthe unstable market trend.

To date, the indecisive posture of the market remains high, alongside a significantreduced activity level as sideline attendants appeared to take positions subtly, yetremain a significant feature.

The depressed postures of equity prices across the board and the wary postures ofinvestors is expected to increase the level of speculative trading in the comingperiods - a pointer to continued volatility in the market.

Market Diagnostic Score Card

Market Gauges Scores Remarks

ASI +4.89%The positive posture was significantly impacted byactivities towards liquid and active stocks across thesectors.

Market BreadthPositive

but weak

This confirms the increase in optimism and positivesentiments in the week which further reflects thebargain tendency.

Market RSI 66.42

The market RSI shows that market is gaining

uptrend momentum while moving into activeposture. Market RSI closed higher as againstprevious week of 46.77

Indecision level (%) 55.22%

Illiquidity of some stocks, low purchasing power, lowrisk appetite, feeble confidence and wary posture ofinvestors reflected here significantly - this is

considered too high. However, an improved postureagainst 57.63% observed in the previous week.

Optimism Level (%) 78.76%

There is an INCREASE in the optimism level of themarket against the previous outlook of 15.25%.

Also, there was active bargain tendency as theoptimistic activity on the bourse closed higher at78.76%, against total market activity, from 50.90%recorded in the previous week.

Pessimism Level (%) 20.15%

There is a DECLINE in the levelm of pessimism in themarket - an impressive posture over the previousoutlook of 27.12%.

This shows that 20.15% of market participants in theweek were pessimistic about the market. Also, therewas significant decline in the pessimistic activitylevel to close lower at 7.65%, against total marketactivity, from 37.28% recorded in the previous week.

Proshare Research

Technically, market sentiments during the week favouredblue chip stocks in the Mediumand Large CAP categories - Agriculture, ICT, Consumer Goods, Financial Servicesand Services sectors in that order which indicates sectors investors patronised in the

week.


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On the other hand, it was observed that market sentiments moved againstthe followingsectors Industrial Goods, Construction/Real Estate, Conglomerates and Oil &Gas sectorsin that order as sell sentiments was stronger in the sectors.

Sector Performance Sector Movers Direction & Trading Psychology

Agriculture 7.01%LIVESTOCK,

PRESCO

ICT 3.14% NCR

Consumer Goods 2.66%NASCON,

DANGFLOUR,NB

Financial Services 1.89%UBN,

FIRSTBANK,FCMB, UBA

Services 0.61%RTBRISCOE,IKEJAHOTEL

Renewed bargain sentimentsobserved in these sectors due to

depressed and attractive prices thatfollowed the heavy sell tendencyobserved in the previous week

Natural Resources 0.00%

Healthcare 0.00%Indecisive (no active transactions)

Industrial Goods -0.28%

BAGCO,

ASHAKACEM,BERGER,AVONCROWN

Waning and Continued Mild selltendency was observed as bears

have been in control - a short termrally in the coming periods is not in

doubt

Construction/Real Estate -0.39% UAC-PROP

Conglomerates -1.00% AGLEVENT

Mild sell tendency observed in thesesectors- Speculating trading was

observed as profit taking tendencydominated

Oil & Gas -2.22%CHEVRON,

CONOIL, FO,JAPAULOIL

Continued and Growing sellingtendency observed in this sector

Source: NSE/Proshare Research

Stock Trend & DirectionWe conducted a review of stocks that have sharpened market direction and performancein the week - using technical tools like RSI, MACD, VOLUME, MFI, CANDLESTICK,MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLIGER BANDS and ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTION

to reveal investors sentiments towards the market movers.

THE BIG VOLUME

UBA Plc closed the week with the highest traded volume, recording 6.8% gain against

the -1.5% loss recorded in the previous week- an impressive price reversal as

sentiments closed positive and bullish for the week.

The stock closed the week with a strong buying tendency as revealed in the weekly

volume trend which closed bullish above previous weekly volume and a 15-day volume

moving average by 768.39% and 9.78% respectively. Buttressing this further, the price

moving average revealed a bullish mode in short and mid-long term period. Also, MACD

suggests a bullish trend as stock closed above signal line.

The northward opening of the upper Bollinger band after a contraction with price position

outside upper Bollinger band confirmed the bullish mode further as the stock recorded

maximum gain in the last two sessions.

However, the money flow index indicates weakness even as we observed an impressiveuptrend momentum as revealed by RSI.


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Technical conclusion on sentiments: the emerging sentiments appeared positive

while the stock likely to extend the bullish trend in the coming periods, barring all

unforeseen market volatility. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.

FCMB Plc experienced positive sentiments in the week to close with a 22.4% gainagainst a 3.4% gain recorded in the previous week on the back of a sustaineduptrend and continued positive sentiments observed in the week. The stock recorded asignificant volume growth above the previous week volume and its 15-day volume

moving average by 230% and 190.24% respectively.

Further, the stock witnessed a bullish trend and consistent bargain in the week as

revealed by its candlestick patterns while the price moving average buttressed thebullish trend - as the stock closed bullish in both short and mid-long term period.

The bullish outlook was buttressed further by MACD as the price maintained strong

position above signal line while consistent accumulation and cash flow into the stock wasobserved in the week.

However, the candlestick formation in the last session suggests a reversal trend as the

presence of bears was noticed during the session. This further signifies incoming selltendency (profit taking) in the near term.

To buttress this further, the last traded volume closed red, signifying sell tendency while

the RSI suggests the stock is overbought. Meanwhile, the money flow index experienceslight weakness.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: There is the possibility of a trend reversalanytime soon as we have observed subtle profit taking in the last session. Thecandlestick pattern emphasises this position in the coming periods as the stock is tradingwithin the overbought region as revealed by RSI, buttressed by slight weaknesses in the

money flow index. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.


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THE GAINERS

UBN Plc experienced consistent bargain sentiments during the week to close as topgainer by 26.7% against 20.8% gain recorded in the previous week - sustained and

improved bargain sentiment was observed towards the stock in the week. The stockmaintained maximum gain pattern in the last ten sessions, indicating strong bargaintendency towards the stock as buttressed by MACD.

Also, the persistent bearish volume trend revealed increased willingness of investors tosell their positions - the trading pattern and price trend suggests mop-up activities onstock.

However, the price position closed neutral and bearish in both short and mid-long termperiod, indicating the stock is yet to enter bullish mode.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: there is a moderate possibility for the stock toextend the price uptrend in the coming periods. The continued bearish volume calls forcautious trading, though a waning bearish volume was observed in the last tradingsession.The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.


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NASCON Plc experienced positive sentiments and active bargain tendency in the weekto close with a 26.6% gain as against the 1.3% gain recorded in the previous week -an improved bargain sentiments witnessed towards the stock in the week. The stock

experienced maximum price gain throughout the week to close bullish in both short andmid-long term period as revealed by price moving average, buttressed by MACD.

In addition, the price position above upper Bollinger band reveals the strong bargain

posture of investors, though more distribution was observed during the week asindicated in the volume trend.

However, the stock closed within the overbought region as revealed by RSI, buttressedby price position above upper Bollinger band- this indicates possibility of trend reversalanytime soon. To buttress this further, the money flow index experienced weakness inthe last trading session.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock closed in the overbought region whileweaknesses was observed in the money flow index - a signal to a possible trend reversal

(profit taking) anytime soon; further buttressed by the bearish volume witnessed in thelast two sessions.

Nothwistanding, there is a moderate possibility for the stock to extend the price uptrend

for few sessions, considering the uptrend momentum. The chart below shows MACD,candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.

THE LOSERS

CONOIL Plc experienced negative and bearish sentiments in the week just ended to

record a -9.7% loss as against the -5.0% recorded in the previous week on theback of a continued moderate sell tendency and bearish sentiments witnessed towardsthe stock. The stock has been on a downtrend since 16th Dec 2011 and so far in theyear, has not experienced a sustained bargain trend while its YTD loss stood at -

33.46%.

Furthermore, the stock broke its 9-year support of N21.00 on April 17 th 2012 with 5%

loss to close at N20.96. More so, the stock plunged by -33.75% between December 16th

2011 and April 17th 2012 to hit all nine years low of N20.96 as the bearish sentiments


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persists. In addition, the bearish volume trend revealed strong sell tendency frominvestors in the year- a pointer to weak shareholders loyalty.

So far in the year, the stock has traded bearish volume of 4.89million units only. Thisshows the inactive posture of the stock as total volume traded so far in the yearrepresents less than 1% of the share outstanding of the company. The negative positionof money flow index buttressed the significant weakness in shareholders' loyalty while

the stock remained depressed as technically revealed by RSI.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: There is a high possibility for the stock to

continue the downtrend in the coming periods. Be that as it may, a price trend reversalmay not be in doubt as the stock appears to have bottomed-out while its depressedposture as revealed by RSI could incite some speculative buying on the back of positivefundamentals. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis.

Continsure Plc recorded negative and bearish sentiments in the week just ended toclose with a -13.2% loss as against the -1.1% loss recorded in the previous week on the back of continued and growing bearish sentiments observed in the week as thestock maintained its downtrend in the last three weeks. The stock appeared depressed

due to the sustained downtrend momentum as revealed by the RSI while the MACDbuttressed the bearish sentiments as its price closed far below signal line.

However, in the last trading session, the price moving average revealed a bullish trend in

mid-long term while the stock closed neutral in short term- this indicates that the stockis moving out of bearish mode gradually.

To buttress this further, the candlestick pattern revealed a reversal signal in the lasttrading session, suggesting incoming bargain tendency.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: An overwhelmed sell tendency was observed inthe week as the stock closed depressed. Nevertheless, there is a possibility of a trendreversal anytime soon as its depressed posture could incite moderate buying aswitnessed in the last session; and buttressed by the candlestick pattern. Though, the

reliability of the reversal signal is low. The chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI andvolume analysis.


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Due Diligence

Valuation/Investment Ratio UBA FCMB UBN NASCON CONOIL CONTINSURE

Book Value (N'm) 181,131 117,696 -184,571 5,784 18,355 8,540

Book Value/Per Share 5.60 7.23 -10.90 2.18 26.45 0.82

Price to Book 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

EPS 0.43 -0.61 -3.69 0.81 4.46 0.12

PE 6.59 -9.04 -1.02 6.15 4.70 6.65

Profitability

ROE (%) 7.61% -8.42% 33.85% 37.24% 16.86% 14.43%

PAT Margin (%) 25.58% -12.33% -79.64% 22.25% 2.57% 12.99%

PBT Margin (%)29.74% -14.12%

-109.31%

32.17% 3.78% 16.83%

Revenue Growth 32.94% 28.26% -8.32% 8.85% 85.59% -7.50%

Proshare Research

Price Trend

Price Performance UBA FCMB UBN NASCON CONOIL CONTINSURE

52 Weeks High 8.25 7.9 11.15 6.7 41.89 1.15

52 weeks Low 1.64 3.61 1.96 3.65 20.96 0.63

3 Month's (%) 22.17% 37.75% -60.82% 21.95% -33.46% 9.72%

6 Month's (%) -14.33% 37.75% 79.43% 25.00% -40.11% -27.52%

12 Month's (%) -65.94% -25.94% 20.19% -14.38% -41.94% -30.70%

Price Trend

Current Price 2.81 5.51 3.75 5.00 20.96 0.79

15 Days MA 2.63 4.59 2.90 4.26 23.19 0.91

30 Days MA 2.66 4.32 3.62 4.2 24.37 0.91

50 Days MA 2.51 4.26 5.14 4.08 25.05 0.84

200 Days MA 3.28 4.63 4.04 4.26 31.47 0.93

Proshare Research


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Disclaimer: The information provided herein is our opinion only. Under no circumstances do any statements

here represent a recommendation to buy or sell your stocks or make any kind of an investment. You are

responsible for your own due diligence. To summarize, we do not provide recommendations nor do we make

any claims or promises that any information here will lead to a profit, loss or any other result. They are for

your guidance purpose only.

sentiment analysis report for we 200412

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