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Outlook for Liquids Stuart R. McGill Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, 2007

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Page 1: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

Outlook for LiquidsStuart R. McGillSenior Vice President

Goldman Sachs, New YorkJanuary 17, 2007

Page 2: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

Cautionary Statement

Forward-Looking Statements. Outlooks, projections, estimates, targets, and business plans in this presentation are forward-looking statements. Actual future results, including demand growth; production volumes and mix; resource recoveries; capacity additions; project plans, timing, and costs; development costs; efficiency improvements; and the impact of technology could differ materially due to a number of factors. These include changes in long-term oil or gas prices or other market conditions affecting the oil and gas industries; reservoir performance; timely completion of development projects; war and other political or security disturbances; changes in law or government regulation; the outcome of commercial negotiations; the actions of competitors; unexpected technological developments; the occurrence and duration of economic recessions; unforeseen technical difficulties; and other factors discussed here and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" on the Investor Information section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com.

Frequently Used Terms. References to resources, the resource base, oil equivalent barrels, and similar terms include quantities of oil and gas that are not yet classified as proved reserves but that we believe will likely be moved into the proved reserves category and produced in the future. Our discussions of reserves generally exclude the effects of year-end price/cost revisions and includes reserve attributable to equity companies and our Syncrude operations. For definitions and additional information regarding, reserves, return on capital employed, cash flow from operations and asset sales (also referred to as operating cash flow), and other terms used in this presentation, including information required by SEC Regulation G, see the "Frequently Used Terms“, quarterly 8-K filings regarding results of operations and financial condition, and other material posted on our website. The Financial and Operating Review on our website also shows ExxonMobil's net interest in specific projects.

Page 3: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1950 1990 20300

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1950 1990 20300

2

4

6

8

10

1950 1990 2030

Global Economics and EnergyPopulation

0.9%

0.4%0.4%

1.1%1.1%

OECDOECD

Non-OECDNon-OECD

Billions

Energy Demand

1.6%

0.7%0.7%

2.4%2.4%

MBDOE

Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

GDP

2.8%

2.2%2.2%

Trillion (2000$)

4.7%4.7%

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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1980 2005 20300

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1980 2005 20300

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 2005 2030

Global Energy Demand by FuelPrimary Energy

1.6%

1.6%1.6%

1.4%1.4%

1.7%1.7%

1.5%1.5%

LiquidsLiquids

GasGas

CoalCoal

OtherOther

MBDOE

Wind & Solar

10.5%

12.5%12.5%

8.4%

Wind

Solar

MBDOEAverage Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

Other Energy

1.5%

1.0%1.0%

2.2%2.2%

Nuclear

HydroHydro

Biomass / OtherBiomass / Other

MBDOE

Wind & Solar 10.5%

1.4%1.4%

Page 5: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Global Liquids Supply & Demand

Liquids Demand

MBDOE

Crude & Condensate

Biofuels

Oil Sands

OtherNGL

Page 6: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

Changing View of Global Oil EndowmentBBO

Data provided under license by IHS Energy, Copyright, IHS Energy, its affiliated and subsidiary companies,all rights reserved

Discovery

Delayed Reporting

Growth

0

25

50

75

100

125

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

1981

Page 7: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

Resource Adds Replace Production

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Total endowment as estimated in 1981

Discovered Post 1981

Growth and late reporting of discoveries

Cumulative Production

Cumulative BBO

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Growth &Undiscovered

Trillions Barrels

ConventionalOil

EHO/TarSands

Oil ShaleConventionalOil

Oil in Place

ConventionalRecoverable

ResourceBase

0

2

4

6

8

Locations of Major Deposits

Large Liquids Resources Exist

Conventional Oil

Oil Sands

Oil Shale

Discovered

Produced Produced

Page 9: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

Technology Improving Resource Access

HondoCA

260 m

HondoHondoCACA

260 m260 m HarmonyCA

365 m

HarmonyHarmonyCACA

365 m365 m

LenaGOM300 m

LenaLenaGOMGOM300 m300 m

ZincGOM450 m

ZincZincGOMGOM450 m450 m

WestDeltaGOM50 m

WestWestDeltaDeltaGOMGOM50 m50 m

GrandIsle

GOM15 m

GrandGrandIsleIsle

GOMGOM15 m15 m

Hoover/DianaHoover/DianaDDCVDDCVGOMGOM

1460 m1460 m

MicaMicaGOMGOM

1326 m1326 m

1947 1962 1976 1983 1989 1993 2000 2003 2004 20052001

KizombaKizomba--BBAngolaAngola

FPSO/TLPFPSO/TLP1100 m1100 m

Marshall Madison GOM, 1478 mMarshall Madison GOM, 1478 mMarshall Madison GOM, 1478 m

XikombaXikombaAngolaAngola

EPSEPS--FPSO/SSFPSO/SS1356 m1356 m

KizombaKizomba--AAAngolaAngola

FPSO/TLPFPSO/TLP1189 m1189 m

2006

ErhaErhaNigeriaNigeria

FPSO/SSFPSO/SS1100 m1100 m

Schematic – Not to scaleSchematic Schematic –– Not to scaleNot to scale

Page 10: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

Yastreb Rig – Sakhalin Island

Technology Improving Resource Access

ExxonMobil Extending Drilling Reach0

5

10

15

20

250 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Horizontal Reach (ft)

Vert

ical

Dep

th (f

t)

1985 1990 1995 2000 2006

Horizontal Reach (k ft)

Vert

ical

Dep

th (k

ft)

Page 11: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

Technology Improving RecoveryReservoir SimulationReservoir Imaging

Cyclic Steam Stimulation - CSS Liquids Addition to Steam for Enhanced Recovery (LASER)

BITUMEN

STEAM+Diluent

Diluent

Well2

Well1

BITUMEN

Steam+Diluent

DiluentDiluent

Well2

Well1

Steam

Stage 1Steam Injection

Stage 2Soak

Stage 3Production

Page 12: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

ExxonMobil Resource Base (YE 2005)Total Resource Base

0

40

80

Total ResourceType

Regions

73 BOEB

Liquids

Gas

Conventional

DeepwaterSour gas related

Arctic

Heavy Oil

Russia/CaspianME/AP

Americas

Africa

EuropeOther

Page 13: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

OperateExecuteDefineSelectPlanning for Development

• Kashagan Ph 1• Tengiz Ph 1• East Area NGL II• Thunder Horse• Kiz C – Saxi• Kiz C - Mondo• ACG Ph 3• Statfjord Late

Life• Rosa• Marimba North• Volve

• Sakhalin-1 Ph 1 • Erha / Erha North• East Area AOR• Syncrude

Upgrader• Dalia• ACG Ph 2• Fram East

• Kearl Future Phases

• Kashagan Future Phases

• Tengiz Future Phases

• Sakhalin Future Phases

• Nigeria Satellites

• Bosi• Banyu Urip• Usan• Pazflor• Orion• CLOV• Bonga SW• Bonga N, NW• PSVM• Skarv/Idun• Tyrihans• Tempa Rossa

• Qatar GTL• Kearl Ph 1• Kizomba D

Satellites• Hebron

Liquids Projects: Opportunities in all Stages

Page 14: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

Advancing Major Liquids Projects

Project with peak production of ≥15 KOEBD (net)

North Sea Field DevelopmentsKearl

Caspian Mega-projects

Angola Deepwater

Nigeria JV Area &Deepwater

Banyu Urip

Thunderhorse

Tempa Rossa

Orion

GTL

Sakhalin

Page 15: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

Project Excellence - Cost & Schedule

0

50

100

<15% 15-40% >40%

0

50

100

<15% 15-40% >40%0

50

100

<15% 15-40% >40%

Schedule Variance vs. Plan - Percent of Projects

*Source: Independent Project Analysis, Inc.

ExxonMobilIndustry*

Industry* ExxonMobil

Cost Variance vs. Budget - Percent of Projects

Projects > $1B

Projects > $1B

< +15% +15 to 40% > +40%

< +15% +15 to 40% > +40% < +15% +15 to 40% > +40%

0

50

100

<15% 15-40% >40%< +15% +15 to 40% > +40%

Page 16: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

Execution Excellence – Faster Delivery

* No ExxonMobil interest; data from public information

Development TimeFull Fund to Start-up of Oil & Gas Production

Angola

U.S.A.

Russia

Nigeria

GenesisDiana Hoover

Thunder Horse

GirassolKiz AKiz BDalia

BongaErha

Sakhalin-2*Sakhalin-1 2005

2008

20082000

1999

20062005

20062005

2004Start-up 2001

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Months

EM OperatedOperated by Others

Page 17: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

Sakhalin 1 – Phase 1 - ChayvoSignificant oil developments

• 30% ExxonMobil Interest

• Offshore and onshoreextended reach drilling

• First oil October 2005 – sales to domestic markets

• Onshore processing plant and offshore export system startup in 2006

SMNGtie-in

Boatasyn

OnshoreProcessing

Facility

OrlanOffshorePlatform

Onshorewellsite

ExportTerminal &

SPM

ExportPipelineSystem

Page 18: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

Sakhalin 1 – Phase 1 - ChayvoSignificant oil developments

• DeKastri terminal – 1.3 MBO capacity

• Oil exports began October 2006 through single point mooring system

• Future development in planning stages

Page 19: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

Erha / Erha North

• 56.25% ExxonMobil interest

• First oil March 2006

• 32 subsea wells planned

• Producing ~240 KBD gross

• 2.2 MB new-build FPSO

• 340 MCFD gas injection

• 150 KBD water injection

Significant oil developments

OML 133 NigeriaWarri

Port Harcourt

1250 m1750 m

1500 m

1000 m

10 Km

Erha-3/3ST

Erha-7/7ST

Erha-2Erha-1

OML 133

Erha

Erha N

Page 20: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

Erha / Erha NorthSignificant oil developments

FPSO

Mooring Buoy

Subsea Manifolds

Drill Ship

Page 21: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

Upper Zakum

• 28% ExxonMobil interest

• Partner of choice based on technical capability

• 50 BOEB in-place resource

• 500 KBD current production

• Objective: increase production to 750 KBD

Significant oil developments

Zakum Central Processing Facility

Page 22: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

Banyu Urip

• 45% ExxonMobil interest

• >350 MBO gross recoverable

• Development plan

• 49 wells (34 producers)

• 165 KBD onshore facility

• 100 km, 20” oil pipeline to 2 MB conversion FSO

• Exploration potential remains

Significant oil developments

Page 23: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

Nigeria East Area

• ExxonMobil interest• 40% in AOR project• 51% in NGL project

• Additional Oil Recovery (AOR) project includes new drilling and gas injection

• NGL extraction and fractionation project

• Increase recoveries and eliminate routine flaring

• >$4B investment

Significant oil developments

0 0

10 16

Terminal

Mfem

Isobo

Utue

IyakEdop

Ubit

Oso

Ekpe AduaAsabo

Yoho

Inim

EkuUsari

MiKm

Asasa

Etim

Inanga

Ata

Idoho

Qua Iboe

EkpeWWKpono

Niger Delta

Producing FieldsGas Fields Undeveloped Fields

Enang

Page 24: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

Nigeria East AreaSignificant oil developments

EAP Production Forecast

250

200

150

100

50

02000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Gross Production (KBD)

Base Decline

AOR

NGL

1/06 5/06 9/06 1/07 5/07 9/07 1/08

500

400

300

200

100

0

Flare EliminationMillion Standard Cubic Feet/Day

• Significant near-term volumes impact

• 560 MBOE additional oil recovery

• 300 MB NGLs

• Eliminates routine flaring

• Arrests oil decline

• Monetizes NGLs

• Conserves gas for future

Base Decline

AOR

NGL

Page 25: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

Cold Lake

• 100% Imperial interest

• Largest thermal in situ oil sands project in the world

• 4,000 active wells

• 850 MBO cumulative field production

Heavy oil and tar sands

Page 26: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

Cold LakeHeavy oil and tar sands

0

40

80

120

160

200

1965

Bitumen Production (KBD)

1975 1985 1995 2005

Phases1-6

Phases7-10

Average ProductionGrowth 1992-2005

4% per year

PilotProduction

13 17 25 30+Recovery Factor, %Phases11-13

Page 27: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

SyncrudeHeavy oil and tar sands

• 25% Imperial interest

• Oil sands mining and upgrading operation near Fort McMurray

• 1.7 BBO gross to date

SYNCRUDESYNCRUDE

Page 28: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

SyncrudeHeavy oil and tar sands

UpgraderUpgrader

• Recent upgrader expansion increased production capacity to 350 KBD

• Management Services Agreement signed November 2006

Page 29: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

KearlHeavy oil and tar sands

• 100% ExxonMobil and Imperial interest

• Potential mining project NE of Fort McMurray

• Phased development of > 4 BBO resource -- potential for 300 KBD

• Regulatory application filed in 2005 -- hearings completed November 2006

KEARLKEARL

Page 30: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

Making Social Impact

TrainingLocalContent

Community, Health and Environment

Employment

Page 31: Senior Vice President - IIS Windows Serverlibrary.corporate-ir.net/library/11/115/115024/items/227232/xom... · Senior Vice President Goldman Sachs, New York January 17, ... • Banyu

ExxonMobil Superior Business Approach

Disciplined Investment

OperationalExcellence

IndustryLeadingReturns

SuperiorCash Flow

Growth in Shareholder

Value