Francis X. Johnson, Research Fellow, Energy and Climate, SEI

Institute of Development Studies

University of Sussex

15 September 2008

Bioenergy, Climate and Development: Emerging Issues and Challenges

• Began with Beijer Institute in 1977; focus on energy & climate

• Groundbreaking studies on fuel wood in Africa

• Helped form GHGs advisory group in 1980s - later led to IPCC

• SEI created in 1989, named after 1972 UN Conference

Historical background of SEI :

Current structure of SEI:• Centres-Stockholm (HQ), Tallinn, U.S., Oxford, York, Bangkok

• New Centre at University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

• Climate and Energy is one of six research programmes

• About 120 research staff and 25 support staff

• International partners and associates in more than 40 countries

• Funded through Govt core support (20%) and projects (80%)

to support decision-making and induce change towards

sustainable development around the world by providing

integrative knowledge that bridges science and policy in the

field of environment and development

MISSION:

A-B-C for D

Improving Access to Modern Energy ServicesAdvancing Bioenergy ResourcesSupporting Climate Policy Processes………………for Sustainable Development

provides focal points for SEI policy analysis,

research, and capacity-building efforts

SEI Climate and Energy Programme Strategy

Recent or ongoing SEI bioenergy programmes, projects, and networks

Advancing Modern Bioenergy: Guidelines for Policymakers and Investors; World Bank/ESMAP (2001-2005)

Cane Resources Network for Southern Africa (CARENSA); EC/FP5, 2002-06

Renewable Energy Partnerships for Africa; EC/FP6, 2004-2005 Biomass, Livelihoods & International Trade; Sida, 2005-2007 Bioenergy for Development in a Changing Climate; Sida,2007-09 Competence Platform on Energy Crop and Agro-forestry Systems

for Semi-arid Ecosystems in Africa (COMPETE); EC/FP6, 2007-09 Briefing Paper for European Parliament on EU Biofuels Target and

Sustainability Criteria, 2008 Clean Cooking Fuels in the East African Community (EAC), 2008 Household Energy: Analysis of ethanol cook stoves in

Ethiopia, 2008

What is Biomass? – living matter originating from plants and animals: primary, secondary, tertiary sources

Biomass ≠ Bio-energy! Many inter-connected and critical functions/services:

• The 4Fs: Food, Feed, Fibre, and Fuel.........• .......and still more Fs: Fertiliser, Feedstocks, Flora, Fauna

• Shelter, housing, household materials• Livelihoods, entrepreneurship, local business opportunities• Maintenance of Biodiversity• Ecosystem functions and integrity• Nutrient cycles and functional synergies• Water quality, erosion control, watershed maintenance• Recreation, peacefulness, tranquillity, wildlife observation• Contribution to human dignity and equality• Shaping the role of citizens and communities as caretakers• Resource Base for Future Generations

Energy-Environment-Development driving forces for bio-energy development and North-South Collaboration

• Rural development - creation of sustainable livelihoods

• Relieving resource pressures and stresses

• Socioeconomics of urbanisation and migration

• Energy security: local – regional – global

• Rural health issues - indoor air

• Urban health issues – lead, air quality

• future competitiveness of agro-industries

• Kyoto Annex 1 countries seeking carbon credits

• Developing countries looking for foreign investment through Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

• Dependence on fossil fuels in increasingly volatile market

• Reduced vulnerability of poor farmers through diversification

Bio-energy production potential in 2050 for different scenarios

434

111137

North AmericaJapan

Ameri

0 0 0 0

Near East &

North Africa

1 232 39

W.Europe

014

32 40

harves ting res idues

bioenergy crops

1460

100125

Oceania

America

1560

100125

E.Europe

1 8 14 17

East Asia

1021

178

221

410

sub-Saharan

Africa

41

149

331

Caribean &

Latin America

178

253

315

46

2

68111

136

CIS &

Baltic States

South Asia

1421

2124

434

111137

North AmericaJapan

Ameri

0 0 0 0

Near East &

North Africa

1 232 39

W.Europe

014

32 40

harves ting res idues

bioenergy crops

1460

100125

Oceania

America

1560

100125

E.Europe

1 8 14 17

East Asia

1021

178

221

410

sub-Saharan

Africa

41

149

331

Caribean &

Latin America

178

253

315

46

2

68111

136

CIS &

Baltic States

South Asia

1421

2124

Potential in Oceania

is 4-6 times projected

primary energy use

Source: E. Smeets, A. Faaij, I. Lewandowski – March 2004

A quickscan of global bio-energy potentials to 2050: analysis of the regional availability of biomass resources

for export in relation to underlying factors, Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University, NWS-E-2004-109.

Intensity of agricultural cultivation remains

low in most world regions

Share of biomass in global energy consumption

Oil

35%

Natural gas

22%

Coal

22%

Nuclear

7%

Biomass

11%

Other

renewables

3%

Large hydro

16%

Traditional

biomass

68%

Modern bio-

energy

11%

Other ‘New’

renewables

5%

Source: IEA and UNDP, 2004-2007

Sub-Saharan Africa energy consumption

Oil

13%

Gas

3%

combustible

renewables

and waste

61%

Hydro

1%

Coal

21%

Nuclear

1%

Oil

13%

Gas

3%

combustible

renewables

and waste

71%

Hydro

2%

Coal

11%

Nuclear

0%

Source: UNDP World Energy Assessment, 2004

Excluding South Africa

Including South Africa

Distribution of biomass used for energy by type and end-use

Share of Traditional Biomass in Residential Consumption

Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006, page 423.

2.5 billion people depend on traditional biomass for cooking

Covering a charcoal kiln

Charcoal bag distribution by truck (note the driver having a nap underneath it)

The Role of modern bioenergyModern bioenergy will play a leading role in the global transition to clean and

sustainable energy due to two decisive advantages over other renewables:

(1) Biomass is stored energy. Like fossil fuels, it can be drawn on at any time, in sharp contrast to daily or seasonally intermittent solar, wind, and small hydro sources, whose contributions are all constrained by the high costs of energy storage.

(2) Biomass can produce all forms of energy, i.e. energy carriers, for modern economies: electricity, gas, liquid fuels, and heat. Solar, wind, wave and hydro are limited to electricity and in some cases heat.

Modern bioenergy has several other advantages over other energy resources:

• provides rural jobs and income to people who grow or harvest the bioenergy resources; bioenergy is more labour-intensive than other energy resources;

• increases profitability in the agriculture, food-processing and forestry sectors. Biomass residues and wastes--often with substantial disposal costs--can instead be converted to energy for sale or for internal use to reduce energy bills;

• helps to restore degraded lands. Growing trees, shrubs or grasses can reverse damage to soils, with energy production and sales as a valuable bonus;

Steps and resources in biomass conversion to

energy products and fuels

Sugar Cane Harvesting in Malawi

Eucalyptus plantation in

Brazil

Ethanol for cooking

stoves

Bioenergy market development

1.Local use of forest and agricultural residues

2.Assuring proper waste treatment, processing of residues, and energy efficiency

3.Infrastructure development

4.National market development through supportive policies and incentives

5.Regional biomass markets, medium-to-large scale utilization, transport logistics

6. Increasing scale, followed by decreasing costs

7. Global commodity market

Energy source Jobs per TWh output

Nuclear 75

Small hydro 120

Natural gas 250

Big hydro 250

Oil 260

Oil offshore 265

Coal 370

Traditional biomass (wood) 733 - 1.067

Wind 918 - 2.400

Ethanol (in Brazil) 3.711 - 5.392

Solar 2.958 – 10.700

Livelihoods – creation of jobs in energy industries

Source: Delcio, 2007

Major Barriers to Modern Bioenergy Markets in Least Developed Countries

• The Three I’s: Infrastructure, Investment, and Institutions• Infrastructure:

• difficulty in getting products to regional and international markets

• technology platforms too often based on “northern” standards

• very large region: SSA is bigger than Brazil, China, and India combined

• low technical capacity to adapt to technical standards (i.e. fuel quality)

• Investment:

• demand is too small for local markets to develop or attract investment

• demand is not well-articulated in terms of end-use sectors

• investment risk is seen as very high in macro-economic terms

• Institutions:

• lack of well-defined regulations for energy firm ownership and operation

• intra-regional economic cooperation at a very early stage; some regions (southern Africa) dominated by one country (South Africa)

• low government capacity to implement bioenergy policies

• low administrative capacity to prove compliance with biofuel certification

Bioenergy Development Options - Scale matters

Large Scale

1. Sugarcane to EtOH

2. Palm / Soy Biodiesel

Mill-owned

estate

Very competitive

globally

Lower Value

Added to Local

Communities

*lowest risk

Export potential

Small-holder

led

Higher cost base

Less globally

competitive

Higher Value

Added to

Local

Communities

*moderate risk

Export potential

Small Scale

1. Sweet Sorghum – micro-distillery

2. Woodlot gasification elec.

Multi-product

or multi-crope.g. sweet sorghum

Economics

Uncertain

Complex-

Value Added to

Local

Communities

*high risk

Local Markets

Social Issues

Crop not well

characterised

Single

Bioenergy

Producte.g. multi-species

woodlot

Value Added

to Local

Communities

*high riskComplex food-

fuel-cash-crop

interactions

SOURCE: Woods, J. Foucs 14: IFPRI, 2006

0 200 400 600

Kilometres-

Legend

SLCR Areas

International Areas

National Areas (No Categories)

National Areas (IUCN Categorised)

Source: UKwZN 2007, South Africa

Land Suitability for Sugarcane Cultivation in SADC

Potential small, medium and large

scale areas (rain fed & irrigated)

suitable and available for sugarcane in

Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, and

Zambia

Limited Potential for medium to large

scale and irrigated plantings in South

Africa and Zimbabwe

Limited Potential for any new

plantings in Mauritius

Cautious establishment at present of

new plantations by potential investors

in Angola and DRC

Malawi Mozambique Tanzania Zambia Total

Estimated suitable/available land (1000 ha) 206 2338 124 1178 3856

Estimated suitable/available land (%) 2.2 3.0 0.2 1.6 1.5

Ratio of maximum to current production 10 585 5 69 61

rapid growth of sweet sorghum (3-4 months)

Land suitability for sweet sorghum (using FAO data)

Country Total Land

(1000ha)

Suitable Share

Low – Inputs High - Inputs

Malawi 9408 11% 26%

Mozambique 78409 16% 28%

South Africa 121447 0% 1%

Tanzania 88359 4% 13%

Zambia 74339 8% 34%

Zimbabwe 38685 0% 3%

Market or environment?Trade or aid?

Local or global?Food, feed, or fuel?

Technology or behaviour?Efficiency or equity?Industry or society?Capital or labour?

North-South trade in biomass: conflict or synergy?

Land area per capita by type and major countries or regions

Source: FAOSTAT, 2008

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

China Brazil ASEAN EU27 India Other Asia SADC Sub-

Saharan

Africa

United

States of

America

WORLD

Are

a (

ha p

er

cap

ita)

Arable land and Permanent crops Permanent meadows and pastures Forest area Other land

Estimated 1st generation biofuel potentials, theoretical biofuel demands

and production capacities (as of end 2006) for selected world regions

(Areas of circles depict approximate comparative scales)

FOSSIL ENERGY BALANCEEnergy output per unit of fossil fuel input

Source: Various, compiled by World Watch Institute, 2006.

ETHANOL BIODIESEL

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Sugar

Cane

Wheat Sugar

Beets

Corn Palm Oil Waste

vegetable

Oil

Soy Rape

Yield comparison: 1st Generation Biofuels

CropSeed yield

(t/ha)

Crop yield

(t/ha)

Biofuel

yield

(litre/ha)

Energy

yield

(GJ/ha)

Sugarcane

(juice)100 7500 157.5

Palm oil 9800 70 3000 105.0

Sweet

sorghum60 4200 88.2

Maize 7 2500 52.5

Jatropha 740 700 24.5

Soybean 480 500 17.5

Published by AAASJ. Fargione et al., Science 319, 1235 -1238 (2008)

Carbon debt, biofuel carbon debt allocation, annual carbon repayment rate, and years to repay biofuel carbon debt for nine scenarios of biofuel production

Estimated levels of land degradation by major region

No

ne

Lig

ht

Mo

derate

Sev

ere

Very

Sev

ere

Total

degradation:

Light-Very

Severe

Degradation:

Moderate –

Very Severe

Sub-Saharan

Africa

33 24 18 15 10 65 42

North Africa and

Near East

30 17 19 28 7 70 52

Asia and Pacific 28 12 32 22 7 72 61

North Asia east of

Urals

53 14 12 17 4 47 33

South and Central

America

23 27 23 22 5 77 50

Europe 9 21 22 36 12 90 70

North America 51 16 16 16 0 44 29

World 35 18 21 20 6 65 47

Source: UNEP, 1992

What is one buying when importing biofuels?

Or is it the Sun?

What is the preferred way to cut butter?

With a knife? Or with a chainsaw?

Is it technology?

CEEEZ Centre for

Energy, Environment and

Engineering Zambia Limited

International Partners

ENDA-TM

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Research Directorate-General

Thanks are extended to EC DG-Research and Sida-INEC

for financial support!

www.sei.se

www.carensa.net