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Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? APRIL 2017 WEBCAST

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Page 1: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

S e l l i n M a y, o r W i l l E P S G r o w t h S a v e t h e D a y ?

A P R I L 2 0 1 7 W E B C A S T

Page 2: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

T O D A Y ’ S S P E A K E R S

2

Sam Stovall, CFP® Chief Investment Strategist

Scott Kessler Deputy Global Director and

Industry Analyst (Moderator)

Todd Rosenbluth Senior Director of ETF and

Mutual Fund Research

Lindsey Bell Investment Strategist

Page 3: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

In October 2016, S&P Global finalized the sale of its Equity and Fund Research (Equity Research) business to CFRA, a leading independent provider of forensic accounting research, analytics,

and advisory services.

Going forward, our Equity Research products and services will be branded as:

3

Page 4: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

C F R A O V E R V I E W

4

CFRA is a leading global provider of independent investment research

With forensic accounting, legal analysis, and fundamental equity research, CFRA empowers sophisticated investment professionals, advisors and risk managers to analyze sectors/industries, companies/stocks and ETFs/mutual funds of interest

CFRA has been in operation since 1994 and our approach is truly independent and unbiased, as we do not underwrite securities, manage assets or otherwise compete with our clients

Privately-held and employee-owned firm with operations in New York, London, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur, Denver, and Washington D.C.

Page 5: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

S e l l i n M a y, o r W i l l E P S G r o w t h S a v e t h e D a y ?

5

Sam Stovall, CFP® Chief Investment Strategist CFRA

Twitter: @StovallCFRA

Page 6: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

6 Source: CFRA. 3/31/2017.

Tailwinds

• January & February barometer

• Stock yields versus bond yields

• Presidential promises and a “V-shaped” recovery in EPS

Headwinds

• Aging bull market & elevated equity valuations

• Rising interest rates

• Debt ceiling, Republican Health Care Package, Brexit, N. Korea

• Seasonality

S T O C K M A R K E T T A I LW I N D S & H E A D W I N D S

Page 7: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

7 Source: CFRA, S&P DJ Indices, Federal Reserve. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data: 12/31/1944-12/31/2013.

36%

30%

24%

52%

32%27%

16%

24%

14%19%

37%

23%

32%

19%

5%

17%

31%

10%

38%

23%

33%29%

11%16%

2%

16%

32%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1945

1950

1951

1954

1955

1961

1964

1967

1971

1972

1975

1983

1985

1986

1987

1988

1991

1993

1995

1996

1997

1998

2004

2006

2011

2012

2013

Average24%

In the 27 Times that the S&P 500 Was Up in January and February Since WWII, It was Up for the Full Year 27 Times, and 25 Times for the Remaining 10 Months

S & P 5 0 0 U P I N J A N . & F E B : S T R O N G 1 2 - M O N T H G A I N

Page 8: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

8 Source: CFRA, S&P Global Market Intelligence. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data: 5/31/1953-3/31/2017.

18%

11%

5%3%

1%

13%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Div. Yld. >10YYld.

10Y> Div. Yld.by 0% to 1%

10Y> Div. Yld.by 1% to 2%

10Y> Div. Yld.by 2% to 3%

10Y> Div. Yld.by 3% to 4%

10Y> Div. Yld.by More Than

4%

Average S&P 500 Price Change 12 Months After Dividend Yield vs. 10-Year Yield Differentials

S T O C K S S T I L L L O O K A T T R A C T I V E V S . B O N D S

Page 9: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

9 Source: CFRA, S&P Dow Jones Indices. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data: 5/17/1947-3/1/2017.

Start End Yr. 1 Yr. 2 Yr. 3 Yr. 4 Yr. 5 Yr. 6 Yr. 7 Yr. 8 Yr. 905/17/47 06/15/48 21.206/13/49 08/02/56 42.1 11.9 13.1 (2.3) 20.0 38.6 17.210/22/57 12/12/61 31.0 9.7 (4.8) 27.606/26/62 02/09/66 32.0 17.9 2.010/07/66 11/29/68 32.9 6.605/26/70 01/11/73 43.7 11.1 (2.5)10/03/74 11/28/80 38.0 21.2 (7.1) 6.1 6.8 18.008/12/82 08/25/87 58.3 2.0 13.4 29.7 36.612/04/87 07/16/90 21.4 29.310/11/90 03/24/00 29.1 5.6 14.5 1.1 24.4 20.9 38.0 1.8 35.610/09/02 10/09/07 33.7 8.0 6.6 12.9 15.903/09/09 ??? 68.6 15.7 3.9 13.2 21.1 10.7 (4.3) 20.1Average 38% 13% 4% 13% 21% 22% 17% 11% 36%

S&P 500 Price Gains During Bull Market Years Since WWII

Annual Annual S&P 500 Price % Changes

B U L L S T E N D T O G O O U T W I T H A B A N G , N O T A W H I M P E R

Page 10: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

10 Source: CFRA, S&P DJ Indices. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data: 12/31/1947-3/31/2017.

S&P 500 at 2363 Operating GAAPP/E Ratio Trailing EPS (Q1 '17E) 20 24Median Trailing P/E Since 1988 17 20% Prem./(Disc.) To 1988 Median 14 17P/E Ratio on 2016E EPS 20 27P/E Ratio on 2017E EPS 18 20Average Trailing P/E Since 1946 NA 17% Prem./(Disc.) To 1958 Median NA 42

P/E Ratios

S&P 500 Valuations are High, Using GAAP or Operating EPS

A M U LT I P L E O F M U LT I P L E S

Page 11: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

11

Source: CFRA, S&P Dow Jones Indices. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Defensive sectors: Consumer staples and health care. Cyclical sectors: Consumer discretionary, industrials, info technology and materials. Data: 4/30/1945-3/31/2017.

6.7%

1.6%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Nov.-Apr. May-Oct.

S I X - M O N T H S & P 5 0 0 P R I C E R E T U R N S S I N C E W W I I

Page 12: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

12 Source: CFRA, S&P Dow Jones Indices. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data: 4/30/1990-03/31/2017.

Semi-Annual Seasonal Price Rotation Occurs No Matter the Cap. Size or Geographical Region

Nov-Apr>

Index Avg. % Up? Avg. % Up? May-Oct?

S&P 500 (Since 1945) 6.7 76% 1.6 64% 69%

S&P EW 500 (1990) 9.7 89% 0.8 70% 69%

S&P SC 600 (1995) 9.2 90% 3.2 64% 59%

MSCI-EAFE (1970) 9.1 81% (0.3) 49% 76%

MSCI-EM (1988) 10.6 83% 0.5 48% 68%

Nov.-April May-Oct.

S E A S O N A L I T Y : N O T J U S T A U . S . P H E N O M E N O N

Page 13: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

13 Source: CFRA, S&P DJ Indices. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data: 10/31/48-10/31/2001.

S&P 500 Price Returns and Frequencies of Advance in the November-April and May-October Periods During Presidential First Years of First Terms

Avg. Freq. of Avg. Freq. of% Chg. Advance % Chg. Advance

Nov.-Apr. (3.3) 33% 0.7 80%May-Oct. 5.7 83% (4.0) 20%

Democrat RepublicanFirst Year, First Term

P O S T - E L E C T I O N C H A L L E N G E S

Page 14: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

S e l l i n M a y, o r W i l l E P S G r o w t h S a v e t h e D a y ?

14

Lindsey Bell Investment Strategist CFRA

Twitter: @LBellCFRA

Page 15: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

Q 1 E P S N E A R D O U B L E D I G I T S

Q1 EPS growth of 9.9% could end up closer to 13% at the end of the reporting season

15

10.5% 9.2%

7.8%

3.2%

0.1%

-1.4%

-4.1%

-6.7%

-1.7%

4.0% 6.1%

9.9% 8.7% 9.4%

12.9% 13.5%

10.2% 9.5%

14.1%

EPS Growth Est on 4/3 EPS Growth Est on 1\/1

Source: S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimates as of April 3, 2017. Abov e data is based on a blended grow th rate for 1Q 2017. For illustrativ e purposes only .

Page 16: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

A C T U A L R E S U LT S > S T A R T I N G E S T I M A T E

Growth estimates typically decline as earnings season approaches, and results end 300-400 bps > estimate

16

Quarter Growth Estimates Beat (bps) vs.

Beginning of Q Season Start(1) Final Season Start(1)

Q4 2016 6.22% 3.93% 6.06% 213 Q3 2016 2.07% -1.16% 4.00% 516 Q2 2016 -2.63% -5.52% -1.75% 377 Q1 2016 1.33% -9.53% -6.74% 279 Q4 2015 -0.52% -6.07% -4.12% 195 Q3 2015 -1.07% -5.05% -1.28% 378 Q2 2015 -2.06% -4.30% 0.17% 447 Q1 2015 5.16% -3.21% 3.16% 636 Q4 2014 11.47% 4.11% 7.37% 327 Q3 2014 4.50% 4.69% 9.23% 454 Q2 2014 8.52% 5.87% 9.89% 402 Q1 2014 5.00% -1.05% 3.05% 410 Q4 2013 9.65% 5.22% 7.61% 239 Q3 2013 6.01% 2.82% 5.54% 272 Q2 2013 6.93% 3.03% 4.98% 195 Q1 2013 3.65% 0.47% 4.82% 435 Q4 2012 9.63% 3.41% 7.43% 402 Q3 2012 3.25% 0.14% 3.32% 318 Q2 2012 1.68% -1.88% 1.15% 302 Q1 2012 4.51% 1.99% 8.09% 610

5-Year Avg. 372 10-Year Avg. 233

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date w as used as the start date.

Page 17: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

S & P 5 0 0 Q 1 E P S G R O W T H B Y S E C T O R

Energy becomes a tailwind, as seven of 11 Sectors are expected to have positive growth

17

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence Consensus Estimates as of April 3, 2017. Abov e data is based on a blended grow th rate for 1Q 2017.

-5.7% -4.0% -2.3% -1.8%

0.4% 2.9% 6.3% 13.5% 16.1% 16.5%

NM 9.9%

Industrials ConsumerDisc

Telecom Utilities Health Care ConsumerStaples

Real Estate Materials Financials Technology Energy S&P 500

Page 18: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

T E C H N O L O G Y G R O W T H B R E A K D O W N

Technology will be a leader for the third quarter in a row

18

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence Consensus Estimates as of April 3, 2017. Abov e data is based on a blended grow th rate for 1Q 2017.

39.2%

13.8% 12.5%

16.5%

Semiconductor & SemiEquipment

Software & Services Technology Hardware &Equipment

Information TechnologySector

Page 19: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

F I N A N C I A L S G R O W T H B R E A K D O W N

Financials are expected to report double digit growth for the third quarter in a row

19

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence Consensus Estimates as of April 3, 2017. Abov e data is based on a blended grow th rate for 1Q 2017.

14.4%

20.0%

17.3% 16.1%

Banks Diversified Financials Insurance Financials

Page 20: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

S & P 5 0 0 Q 1 S A L E S G R O W T H B Y S E C T O R

Q1 will be the fourth consecutive quarter of top line growth

20

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of April 3, 2017. Abov e data is based on a blended grow th rate for 1Q 2017.

-6.8% -4.2%

3.0% 3.3% 3.5% 5.4% 7.7% 9.8% 13.1%

31.9% 33.5%

7.2%

Utilities Materials Healthcare ConsumerStaples

Real Estate ConsumerDisc.

Technology Industrials Telecom Energy Financials S&P 500

Page 21: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

F Y 1 7 G R O W T H T R A J E C T O R Y

FY EPS growth ends 550 basis points lower than the January 1st estimate

21

Source: CFRA Research.

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

FY 2015 FY 2016 FY2017Prior Year Current Year

FY EPS Growth Trajectory Trends

Page 22: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

S & P 5 0 0 ’ s P R E M I U M V A L U A T I O N

Trading 2.5x higher than the 16 year average, the index is rich by historic standards

22

Source: CFRA Research.

S&P 500 Next Twelve Month (NTM) P/E Ratio

5.0x

10.0x

15.0x

20.0x

25.0x

30.0x

S&P 500 Forward P/E (NTM)

16 Year Avg: 15.7x

Page 23: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

S e l l i n M a y, o r W i l l E P S G r o w t h S a v e t h e D a y ?

23

Todd Rosenbluth Senior Director of ETF and Mutual Fund Research CFRA

Twitter: @RosenbluthCFRA

Page 24: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

2 0 1 7 : Y E A R F O R A C T I V E M A N A G E M E N T ?

24

Source: Source: CFRA, Lipper. Data as of March 2017. S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indices used for benchmark purposes.

% of Mutual Funds Outperforming Their Benchmarks

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

Large Cap

Small Cap

OutperformedUnderperformed

Page 25: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

25

Source: FactSet

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

Total ETFs US Equity Intl Equity Fixed Income

2016First 3 Mos.

S t r o n g E T F F l o w s ( $ B ) C o n t i n u e d i n 2 0 1 7

Page 26: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

C F R A ’ s E T F R E S E A R C H P H I L O S O P H Y

26

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, so do not rely solely on it. Most ETFs seek to track and replicate a unique benchmark so a long record as an ETF is not needed.

Understanding what’s inside a fund from a risk/reward perspective can help sort through various options.

An appealing fund is one that has holdings that are aligned with your objectives and that make sense in the current environment.

A fund’s costs can impact returns either directly or indirectly and should be a factor in the selection process.

We have rankings on approximately 1,200 ETFs across various categories, using a unique approach tailored to each.

Page 27: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

P O P U L A R T E C H N O L O G Y E T F s

27

Source: CFRA, Lipper. Data as of March 31, 2017.

Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) 17 billion in assets

S&P 500 Tech and Telecom Services stocks 0.14% expense ratio and $0.01 bid/ask spread

Vanguard Information Technology (VGT) $12 billion in assets Large-, mid- and small-cap tech stocks 0.10% expense ratio and $0.02 bid/ask spread

Page 28: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

T E C H H N O L O G Y E T F s : W H A T ’ S I N S I D E M A T T E R S

28

These ETFs Hold Different Stocks Impacting Performance

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

XLK VGT RYT

As of March 31, 2017

One Year

Source: CFRA, Lipper.

Page 29: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

C F R A ’ s E T F R E S E A R C H P H I L O S O P H Y

29

Source: CFRA, Lipper. Data as of March 31, 2017

iShares PHLX Semiconductor (SOXX) $875 million in assets and market cap weighted

Semiconductors (86% of assets) and semiconductor equipment (13%)

0.48% expense ratio and $0.06 bid/ask spread

SPDR S&P Semiconductor (XSD) $320 million in assets and equally weighted Semiconductors (98%)

0.35% expense ratio and $0.07 bid/ask spread

Page 30: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

S E M I C O N D U C T O R E T F s : W H A T ’ S I N S I D E M A T T E R S

30

These ETFs Hold Different Stocks Impacting Performance

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

PSI SOXX XSD

As of March 31, 2017

One Year

Source: CFRA, Lipper.

Page 31: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

B A N K E T F s C O N S T R U C T E D D I F F E R E N Y L Y

31

SPDR S&P Bank (KBE) $3.3 billion in assets and equally weighted Regional banks (73% of assets), diversified banks

(14%), asset mgmt. & custody banks (4%) 0.35% expense ratio and $0.01 bid/ask spread

PowerShares KBW Bank (KBWB) $810 million in assets and market cap weighted Regional banks (42% of assets), diversified banks

(41%), asset mgmt. & custody banks (11%) 0.35% expense ratio and $0.09 bid/ask spread

Source: CFRA, Lipper. Data as of March 31, 2017.

Page 32: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

O U R Q & A S E S S I O N W I L L B E G I N M O M E N TA R I LY

32

Page 33: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

Q & A

33

Sam Stovall, CFP® Chief Investment Strategist @StovallCFRA on Twitter

Scott Kessler Deputy Global Director and

Industry Analyst (Moderator)

@KesslerCFRA on Twitter

Todd Rosenbluth Senior Director of ETF and

Mutual Fund Research @ToddCFRA on Twitter

Lindsey Bell Investment Strategist

@LBellCFRA on Twitter

Page 34: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

T H A N K Y O U F O R A T T E N D I N G

34

Your opinion is very important to us. Please fill out the survey!

For in-depth information on these topics and more, contact us: Email for a Free Trial of MarketScope Advisor: [email protected] Learn: For more information about CFRA, visit: www.cfraresearch.com Call: 800-220-0502 Important Replay/Document Resource Center Information: Please note – the replay of this webcast, the presentation deck and any other applicable supplemental documents will be made available in 3-4 business days. You will be notified of its availability via email.

Page 35: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

S P E A K E R B I O G R A P H I E S

35

Sam Stovall, CFP® Chief Investment Strategist @StovallCFRA on Twitter

Scott Kessler Deputy Global Director and

Industry Analyst (Moderator)

Todd Rosenbluth Senior Director of ETF and

Mutual Fund Research @ToddCFRA on Twitter

Lindsey Bell Investment Strategist

@LBellCFRA on Twitter

Page 36: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

S P E A K E R B I O G R A P H I E S

36

Scott Kessler (@KesslerCFRA on Twitter) Deputy Global Director and Industry Analyst at CFRA Scott Kessler is Deputy Global Director and Industry Analyst at CFRA, Equity Research. In addition to managing a team of industry analysts, Scott establishes and executes on longer-term strategies and directs day-to-day operations to produce and distribute high-quality and timely research content. He also conducts fundamental analysis and valuation assessments within the Internet, Software and Fintech areas. Additionally, Scott oversees and coordinates team media and compliance efforts. Scott holds a bachelor’s degree from Brandeis University and a law degree from Washington University in St. Louis.

Sam Stovall, CFP® (@StovallCFRA on Twitter)

Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA Sam Stovall is Chief Investment Strategist of U.S. Equity Strategy at CFRA. He serves as analyst, publisher and communicator of S&P’s outlooks for the economy, market, and sectors. Sam is the Chairman of the S&P Investment Policy Committee, where he focuses on market history and valuations, as well as industry momentum strategies. He is the author of The Standard & Poor’s Guide to Sector Investing and The Seven Rules of Wall Street. In addition, Sam writes a weekly investment piece, featured on S&P Global Market Intelligence’s MarketScope Advisor platform and his work is also found in the flagship weekly newsletter The Outlook. He holds an MBA in Finance from New York University and a B.A. in History/Education from Muhlenberg College, in Allentown, PA. He is a CFP® certificant and is a Trustee of the Securities Industry Institute®, the executive development program held annually at The Wharton School of The University of Pennsylvania.

Page 37: Sell in May, or Will EPS Growth Save the Day? · (1) Season start date is the date Alcoa reported results prior to Q4 2016. For Q4 2016 the day before JPMorgan’s reporting date

S P E A K E R B I O G R A P H I E S

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Lindsey Bell (@LBellCFRA on Twitter) Investment Strategist at CFRA Lindsey Bell is an Investment Strategist who works directly with the Chief Investment Officer to determine appropriate asset class allocation and equity sector level weightings. She participates in projecting the firm’s 12-month S&P 500 price target. Her market observations and sector opinions are expressed in her Sector Intellect articles on CFRA’s MarketScope Advisor (MSA) platform. She also authors the monthly European and Asian Investment Policy Committee (IPC) notes that are also available on MSA. Lindsey holds a Bachelor’s degree in Business Administration from the University of Pittsburgh.

Todd Rosenbluth (@ToddCFRA on Twitter) Senior Director of ETF and Mutual Fund Research at CFRA Research Todd Rosenbluth is the Director of ETF and Mutual Fund Research at CFRA where he leads the firm’s holdings-based research efforts within the Equity Research and Fund group. Todd publishes regular thought leadership content on equity and fixed income products, maintains the quantitative fund models and supports client needs. He also serves as a member of Portfolio Strategy Committee and the Investment Policy Committee. Todd holds a B.G.S in Finance from the University of Michigan and an MBA in Finance from New York University. He is also a 2017 Rising Star recipient from Fund Action for CFRA fund research.

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Disclosures This content is published and originally distributed by Accounting Research & Analytics, LLC d/b/a CFRA (“CFRA US”), with the following exceptions: In the UK/EU/EEA, it is published and originally distributed by CFRA UK Limited (company number 08456139 registered in England & Wales with its registered office address at 131 Edgware Road, London, W2 2AP, United Kingdom), an Appointed Representative of Hutchinson Lilley Investments LLP, which is regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (No. 582181), and in Malaysia by Standard & Poor’s Malaysia Sdn. Bhd, which is regulated by Securities Commission Malaysia, (No. CMSL/A0181/2007. These parties and their subsidiaries maintain no responsibility for reports redistributed by third parties such as brokers or financial advisors. The content of this presentation and the opinions expressed herein are those of CFRA based upon publicly-available information that CFRA believes to be reliable and the opinions are subject to change without notice. This analysis has not been submitted to, nor received approval from, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission or any other regulatory body. While CFRA exercised due care in compiling this analysis, CFRA AND ALL RELATED ENTITIES SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, to the full extent permitted by law, regarding the accuracy, completeness, or u sefulness of this information and assumes no liability with respect to the consequences of relying on this information for investment or other purposes. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of CFRA. The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. CFRA and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availabil ity of the Content. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This document may contain forward-looking statements or forecasts; such forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report is not intended to, and does not, constitute an offer or solicitation to buy and sell securities or engage in any investment activity. This report is for informational purposes only. Recommendations in this report are not made with respect to any particular investor or type of investor. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors and this material is not intended for any specific investor and does not take into account an investor's particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs. Before acting on any recommendation in this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Additional information on a subject company may be available upon request. CFRA's financial data provider is S&P Global Market Intelligence. THIS DOCUMENT CONTAINS COPYRIGHTED AND TRADE SECRET MATERIAL DISTRIBUTED UNDER LICENSE FROM S&P GLOBAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE. FOR RECIPIENT'S INTERNAL USE ONLY. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®) was developed by and/or is the exclusive property of MSCI, Inc. and S&P Global Market Intelligence. GICS is a service mark of MSCI and S&P Global Market Intelligence and has been licensed for use by CFRA. Certain information in this presentation is provided by S&P Global, Inc. and/or its affiliates and subsidiaries (collectively “S&P Global”). Such information is subject to the following disclaimers and notices: “Copyright © 2017, S&P Global Market Intelligence (and its affiliates as applicable). All rights reserved. Nothing contained herein is investment advice and a reference to a particular investment or security, a credit rating or any observation concerning a security or investment provided by S&P Global is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions. This may contain information obtained from third parties, including ratings from credit ratings agencies. Reproduction and distribution of S&P Global’s information and third party content in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of S&P Global or the related third party, as applicable. Neither S&P Global nor its third party providers guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of any information, including ratings, and are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such information or content.

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