selected preliminary results of the baseline 2015 · 2016. 6. 3. · 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010...
TRANSCRIPT
Petra Salamon Aida Gonzalez, Myrna van Leeuwen, Roel
Jongeneel, Trevor Donnellan, Mariusz Hamulczuk, Kevin Hanrahan, Lauri Kettunen
AGMEMOD Partnership
Zagreb, February 26th 2015
Selected Preliminary Results of the Baseline 2015
Meat
Introduction
• What has been done?
• Extensive database update DE, FI, IE, NL, PL, RO, FR, UK, (IT), limited for ES, HU, SE
• Adjustment/recalibration of behavioural equations done for selected MS (DE, FI, IE, NL, PL)
• Final scope EU-28, within the public data possibilities
• Problematic for sheep meat (concentrated in smaller MS)
• No R-factors applied (but structure in place)
2
Introduction
• Business as usual
• Weather assumed as normal (no drought, no flooding),
• No outbreak of diseases or sudden buying reservations
• EU meat prices follow the developments of the world market
3
Introduction
• Policy issues (CAP reform, ...)
• Greening (EFA) not relevant for beef
• ... but Voluntary Coupling (all MS except DE)
• 24 MS apply coupled payments to beef)
• “solution chosen” to cope with still lacking precise information => use existing measures
• Beef and sheep meat supply decrease might be a bit overestimated due to ignoring vol. coupling
4
World Market Price of Meats
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Steers
Hogs
Broiler
Lamb
5
€/100 kg
Total Meat Production
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Sheep meat Beef Poultry Pig meat
6 Preliminary results, selected models
Mill. t Observation Projection
Growth: slightly higher than EU-Com for all categories in total about 2%, Pig meat and poultry increases, Beef and sheep meat decreases
Total Meat Domestic Use
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Sheep meat Beef Poultry Pig meat
7 Preliminary results, selected models
Mill. t Observation Projection
Growth: higher than EU-Com for all categories in total about 2,3% Pig meat and poultry increase, beef and sheep meat decrease
Total Meat Domestic Use in Selected MS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
PL NL IE FI DE
8 Preliminary results, selected models
Mill. t Observation Projection Growth
(2013/2024) Varies: 1% in DE 16% in IE (post crisis impact)
A slowly declining EU meat consumption
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
202
1
202
2
202
3
202
4
kg p
er c
apit
a in
ret
ail w
eigh
t
EU-15
EU-N13
EU-28
• In the short-run a recovery is expected
- after a very low level in 2013 following a lack of beef and pig meat supply,
- also thanks to the economic recovery.
• But back to the declining trend starting from 2017 in the EU-15
• In the EU-N13 meat consumption could grow because:
- the current level of per capita consumption is quite low
- a stronger economic growth is expected in this region
Domestic Consumption per Head in selected MS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1002
00
0-2
00
2
20
10
-20
12
20
22
-20
24
20
00
-20
02
20
10
-20
12
20
22
-20
24
20
00
-20
03
20
10
-20
12
20
22
-20
24
20
00
-20
02
20
10
-20
12
20
22
-20
24
20
00
-20
02
20
10
-20
12
20
22
-20
24
Sheep meat Beef Poultry Pig meat
Germany Finland Ireland Netherlands Poland
10 Preliminary results, selected models
kg/cap.
A declining EU beef production and consumption
– A declining EU beef production, albeit at slower pace:
- In the short-run, more beef thanks to the recent increase in dairy herd
- After that, back to a slow decline with the reduction in herds
– Stable imports* given South America is oriented more and more towards:
- Its domestic market
- Other markets like Asia and the US
– Decline in beef consumption and stable exports
* The FTA with Canada is not considered, EU imports could be higher once this agreement is in force.
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
Trad
e (m
illio
n t
on
nes
)
Pro
du
ctio
n, c
on
sum
pti
on
(m
illio
n t
on
nes
)
Consumption
Exports
Imports
Gross indigenous production
Beef in the EU-28
12 Preliminary results, selected models
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Net Production Domestic UseNet trade Price (DE)
1000 t €/100 kg
EU COM Net trade -161 000 t (-40 000 t due to higher domestic use) EU COM Price 331 €/100 kg (370 €/100 kg = R3 price, higher domestic use)
Beef Production in Selected MS
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Other MS PL NL IE FI DE
13 Preliminary results, selected models
1000 t Observation Projection
-20 -10 0 10 20
OtherMS
PL
NL
IE
FI
DE
% change 2013 to 2024
Beef Prices in the Selected MS
14 Preliminary results, selected models
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
DE - slaughter weight FI - slaughter weight IE- live weight
NL - slaughter weight PL- slaughter weight
€/100 kg
No further decline in EU sheep meat production
– Sheep and goat meat production could stabilise because of
- improved profitability,
- the implementation of coupled support in main producing countries.
– Stable imports and TRQs underfilled as Oceania finds growing opportunities in non-EU markets
– Stabilising exports of live animals and meat
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
Pro
du
ctio
n, c
on
sum
pti
on
(m
illio
n t
on
nes
)
Consumption
Exports
Imports
Gross indigenous production
Sheep meat in the EU-28
16 Preliminary results, selected models
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
-500
0
500
1000
1500
20002
00
02
00
12
00
22
00
32
00
42
00
52
00
62
00
72
00
82
00
92
01
02
01
12
01
22
01
32
01
42
01
52
01
62
01
72
01
82
01
92
02
02
02
12
02
22
02
32
02
4
Net production Domestic use Net trade Price (IE)
1000 t €/100 kg
Lamb Prices in the Selected MS
18 Preliminary results, selected models
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
DE - lamb slaughter weight FI IE NL PL
€/100 kg
Stable EU pig meat production
– Production is expected to stabilise
- After a recovery in the short-run following farmers full implementation of the new welfare rules for sows.
– Because no expansion in the EU consumption is foreseen
– Only rising exports are driving the EU pig meat market
- Dynamic demand, especially from China
- Supporting increasing world and EU prices
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
Trad
e (m
illio
n t
on
nes
)
Pro
du
ctio
n, c
on
sum
pti
on
(m
illio
n t
on
nes
)
Consumption
Meat exports
Meat imports
Net production
Pig Meat Production in the EU-28
20 Preliminary results, selected models
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Net production Domestic useNet trade Price (DE)
1000 t €/100 kg
EU COM Net trade 2.5 Mill t (2.2 Mill t due to higher domestic use) EU COM Price 183 €/100 kg (173 €/100 kg due to different world market price)
Pig Meat Production in Selected MS
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Other MS PL NL IE FI DE
21 Preliminary results, selected models
1000 t
Observation Projection
-20 -10 0 10 20
OtherMS
PL
NL
IE
FI
DE
% change 2013 to 2024
Pig Meat Prices in the selected MS
22 Preliminary results, selected models
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
DE FI IE NL PL
€/100 kg
EU poultry meat production and consumption still increasing
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
Trad
e (m
illio
n t
on
nes
)
Pro
du
ctio
n, c
on
sum
pti
on
(m
illio
n t
on
nes
)
Consumption
Meat exports
Meat imports
Net production
TRQ level
• Poultry meat has many advantages over the other meats
- Lower investments required, faster adjustments due to the short rearing time,
- Price affordability, broad religious acceptance, convenience and healthy image…
• And world demand is growing supporting sustained exports and firm prices
• Rising imports of high quality cuts are expected following the recent increase in TRQ
Poultry Production in the EU-28
24 Preliminary results, selected models
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000 Net production Domestic Use
Net trade Broiler price (NL)
DE - whole sale
1000 t €/100 kg
EU COM Net trade 570 000 t (930 000 t due to higher production) EU COM Price 203 €/100 kg (wide range of prices, different definitions)
Poultry Meat Production in Selected MS
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Other MS PL NL IE FI DE
25 Preliminary results, selected models
1000 t Observation Projection
-50 -25 0 25 50
OtherMS
PL
NL
IE
FI
DE
% change 2013 to 2024
Poultry Prices in the Selected MS
26 Preliminary results, selected models
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
DE - whole sale FI IE NL PL
€/100 kg
Uncertainties
• General economic and political environment (growth, exchange rates)
• Trade agreements
• Local policies
• Milk quota abolition effects
• Demographic impacts
• Technical progress (breeding techniques)
• Consumer concerns
27
Conclusions
• EU increasingly affected by the world market, thus, uncertainties and chances increase (crisis, bans, diseases, exchange rates)
• Not covered yet: recoupling • Growth of domestic use in most MS quiet
limited (certain products and regions), meat consumptions affected by growing consumer concerns and aging population
• In some MS production increase limited by environmental obligations and concerns of citizens (nimby), opens chances for other MS
29