seismic hazard assessment

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July, 2011

PROBABILISTIC SEISMICHAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR

YANGON REGION,MYANMAR

Myo Thant, Soe Thura Tun, Maung Thein, Win Swe, Than Myint

Myanmar Earthquake Committee



MYANMR EARTHQUAKE COMMITTEE July, 2011

REPORT

ON

PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD

ASSESSMENT FOR YANGON REGION,

MYANMAR

Prepared

By

Myo Thant, Soe Thura Tun, Maung Thein,

Win Swe, Than Myint

July, 2011

MYANMAR EARTHQUAKE COMMITTEE




ContentsAbstract ...................................................................................................................................... 1

Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 2Seismotectonics.......................................................................................................................... 2Analyzed Data ............................................................................................................................ 6Methodology .............................................................................................................................. 7Earthquake Sources Identification ............................................................................................. 7Earthquake Sources Characterization ...................................................................................... 10

Estimation of seismicity parameters (a- and b- values) ....................................................... 10 Estimation of maximum earthquake potentials .................................................................... 12 Estimation of earthquake recurrence rate............................................................................ 13

Attenuation Relationship ......................................................................................................... 14Site Characterization ................................................................................................................ 15Calculation of the Seismic Hazard ........................................................................................... 16

Discussion and Conclusions .................................................................................................... 23Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................. 23References: ............................................................................................................................... 24




1

Abstract

According to the seismicity and the records of the previous considerable high

magnitude earthquakes, Yangon Region can be regarded as the low to medium seismicity

region. Moreover, tectonically the present region is bounded by the subduction zone of the

Indian Plate and Burma Plate in the west and the right lateral Sagaing fault in the east. The

most significant earthquake happened around this region is the Bago earthquake of 5th May,

1930 with the magnitude of 7.3. This earthquake caused 500 casualties and great destruction

in Bago. However, considerable damage and 50 deaths were recorded in Yangon. It was

originated from the Sagaing fault. The seismic hazard analysis is performed for Yangon

Region by applying the probabilistic way. In conducting seismic hazard analysis, firstly the

most possible seismic sources are identified and the seismic source parameters are then

determined for each sources. Based on the seismicity, focal mechanism study of the previous

events, and the geological data, the main seismic sources to cause the earthquake potentials

for this region are subduction zone of Indian and Burma Plates, Sagaing fault, and

Kyaukkyan fault. Including those sources, fifteen areal seismic sources and two fault sources

are identified. After that the seismic source parameters such as the seismicity parameters of

a- and b- values, maximum magnitude of earthquake potentials and earthquake recurrence

parameters for certain magnitude of each seismic source are estimated. The seismic hazard

analysis are carried out for 10% probability of 10 years, 20 years, 50 years and 100 years and

The seismic hazard maps are represented in terms of peak ground acceleration for those

recurrence intervals.




2

Introduction

Yangon region is the major Region of Myanmar and the ancient capital is also located

in this region. Based on the seismicity and the records of the previous considerable high

magnitude earthquakes, this region can be assumed as low to medium seismicity region

(Figure 1). Some of the large earthquakes can be observed in the records and those events

caused the considerable damages to some buildings and some casualties in and around

Yangon region (Figure 2), e.g. the magnitude 7.3, earthquake which struck on May 25, 1930

and December 3, 1930. The former earthquake, well-known Bago earthquake, caused 50

deaths and great damages in Yangon while 500 casualties were resulted in Bago. The other

significant earthquakes are Yangon earthquakes of September, 1927 and December, 1927.

These events also resulted in a certain amount of damage in Yangon. Therefore the seismic

hazard analysis was performed for this region by applying the probabilistic way.

Seismotectonics

The major tectonics of Myanmar comprises of the subduction zone of Indian Plate

and Burma Plate in the west, and the collision zone of Indian Plate and Eurasia Plate in the

north. The rate of subduction is 35 – 50 mm/yr and the direction of subduction is NE to NNE

(Kayal, 2008). The other major structures present within Myanmar are the major fault system

of well-known Sagaing fault, Kyaukkyan fault, Gwegyo thrust, Kabaw fault system and WestBago Yoma fault. Most of the earthquakes happened in the central, relating with Sagaing

fault, and eastern part of Myanmar is not greater than 40 km in focal depth while the

earthquakes happened along the western portion represent the shallow, intermediate and deep

focus earthquakes. In the later case, the shallow focus earthquakes along the western margin

belongs to the subduction zone earthquakes and the focal depth of the earthquakes which

epitomize the subduction zone earthquakes gradually increase to the eastward. In the eastern

margin of the western portion, the shallow focus events indicate the correspondence of the

Gabaw fault system.Most of the earthquakes happened in the central part of Myanmar belongs to the

major structure, right lateral Sagaing fault which run through the central part of the country

with the length of more than 1,000km. It runs from the gulf of Mataban in the south through

Bago, Pyinmana, Yamethin, Tharzi, and Sagaing till Putao in the north. The records of the

previous significant earthquakes showed some destructive earthquakes originated from this




3

fault are 7 and greater in magnitude. The focal mechanisms of the previous earthquake

happened along the Sagaing fault represents the strike-slip mechanisms (Figure 3),

confirming the compression force in NE-SW direction and extensional force in NW-SE

direction. However, the events which are located in the northern most part of Sagaing fault,

i.e. northern segments of that fault show strike-slip mechanism with the dominant trustmechanism. This character corresponds to the gradual changes or influence of the collision of

Eurasia and Burma Plates on the Sagaing fault system. The second-most significant fault

system is the Kyakkyan fault which strikes in nearly N-S and it extends southward from Pyin

Oo Lwin – Naungcho area through Taunggyi – Innle Lake with the length of above 450 km.

The largest earthquake happened from this fault with the magnitude of Richter magnitude 8.1

on 23rd May, 1912 (Chibber, 1913, Win Swe and Win Naing, 2008 and Mg Thein and Tint

Lwin Swe, 2006). However, very few (about 5 small events) have been recorded around this

fault.

Rather than the above mentioned faults, Kabaw fault is another important thrust fault

system. In the records, the maximum magnitude of the earthquake happened in the area of

this fault system is 7.7M, which struck on 12, March 1952. The second most high magnitude

earthquake, 7.2M 16, Aug 1938 event, and the third one is Magnitude 7 earthquake also

happened near Hommalin. Both of the last earthquakes happened at the deep foci with the

depth of 100km and 180km and the events happened in and around the area of this fault

systems are mostly greater than 60km in focal depth. It doubts that these events were

originated from the Kabaw Fault System and these seem to be subduction zone earthquakes.




4

Figure (1). The seismicity of Myanmar (Data Source – ANSS earthquake catalog, 1963 –2009)

The present region, Yangon Region is tectonically bounded by the Indian-Burma plates subduction in the west, Sagaing fault in the east, West Bago Yoma fault in the north,

Kyaykkyan fault in the north-east, and the Andaman rift zone in the south. The earthquakes

observed in the Andaman sea region are shallow focus earthquakes that show not only the

normal fault mechanisms but also the strike-slip fault mechanisms.

In and around Yangon region, most of the earthquakes happened are in shallow focus

earthquakes, especially within about 250km in radius. Most are related with Sagaing fault,

some blind faults and subduction zone of Indian and Burma Plate (Part of Eurasian Plate),

and the Andaman Rift Zone. Moreover, some other faults whose geometry and other parameters are not well-known in and around this region also generated some earthquakes.

Small numbers of intermediate and deep focus earthquakes can be seen in this region and

those are caused by the subduction zone of Indian-Burma Plates.




5

Figure (2). The Events of the considerable high magnitude earthquakes records.




6

Figure (3). The focal mechanisms of the previous earthquakes (Data Source – CMT catalogof Harvard University, 1963 – 2009).

Analyzed

Data

The earthquake catalog of ANSS (1963-2009) is utilized with the complement of

USGS (1973-2009) and declustering of the dependent earthquakes was also carried out for

the present research by removing the foreshocks and aftershocks. For focal mechanisms

study, the CMT catalog of Havard University (1963-2009) is used in this research.




7

Methodology

The seismic hazard analysis for Yangon Region was carried out by probabilistic way,

i.e. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) which was developed by Cornell (1968).

It includes four steps: (1) Identification and characterization of the possible seismic sources,

(2) Characterization of the spatial and temporal distribution of the earthquake recurrence, (3)

Determination of the ground motion using the ground motion predictive relationship, and (4)

Estimation of the probability that the ground motion parameter will be exceeded during the

particular time period (Kramer, 1996 and Reiter, 1990). The EQRISK program (McGuire,

1976) was used to calculate the seismic hazard, the ground motion parameter, peak ground

acceleration (pga).

Earthquake

Sources

Identification

Seismic sources are identified as areal seismic sources and fault sources according to

the geology (tectonics), seismicity and focal mechanisms study of the previous earthquakes.

Thirteen areal seismic sources are identified as eight sources (MAS_02A, MAS_02B,

MAS_03, MAS_17, MAS_18, MAS_19, MAS_20, and MAS_21) in the west of Yangon

Region, representing the subduction zone earthquakes, two (MAS_15 and MAS_16) in the

south, Andaman Rift Zone, one (MAS_22) representing Gwegyo thrust and West Bago Yoma

fault in the north, and two (MAS_10 and MAS_11) in the east, including some strike-slip

faults (Figure 4 and Table 2). In this case, some faults are identified as the areal seismicsources due to the lack of adequate information.

In the surroundings of this region, two significant fault systems are observed and

those are well-known Sagaing fault and Kyaukkyan fault. Two fault sources are therefore

identified and the fault segmentation of those faults was done and three major segments for

Sagaing fault as SGSMN in the northern portion of that fault, SGSMM in the middle portion

and SGSMS in the southern portion. The Kyaukkyan fault was also segmented as three

segments from north to south as KK01, KK02 and KK03. For this region, the most influence

segments from those two fault sources are SGSMM02_02, SGSMS01, SGSMS02, SGSMS03and SGSMS04 which are of Sagaing fault and KK03, the southernmost segment of

Kyaukkyan fault (Figure 5,6 and Table 2).




8

(a)

(b)

Figure (4). The map of areal seismic sources, displaying (a) the epicentral distribution of the previous earthquakes happened 1963 – 2009, and (b) the epicentral distributionof the most significant events.




9

(a)

(b)Figure (5) The map showing the most prominent faults around Yangon Region, displaying (a)

the epicentral distribution of the previous earthquakes happened during 1963 –2009, and (b) the epicentral distribution of the most significant events.




10

Figure (6). The map of the fault seismic sources used in this seismic hazard analysis andsome other faults around Yangon Region.

Earthquake

Sources

Characterization

The characterization of the seismic sources include the determination of the seismic

source parameters of each seismic source such as seismicity parameters; a- and b- values, the

maximum magnitude of the earthquake potentials ( M max), and the recurrence rate of a certain

magnitude (lower bound earthquake) earthquake.

Estimation of seismicity parameters (a‐ and b‐ values)

The seismicity parameters of a- and b- values are estimated by applying the classical

Gutenberg-Richter recurrence law, with the complementary of the maximum likelihood

method of Aki (1965). The Gutenberg-Richter recurrence law can be expressed as the

following equation.

Log Nm = a – bm Eq.1

Where Nm is the number of earthquakes having magnitude ≥ m, a is the measure of seismic

activity and b is a parameter of the ratio of larger to smaller earthquakes (Gutenberg and




11

Richter, 1944). The seismicity parameters obtained for seismic sources are shown in Figures

(7 and 8).

(a)

(b)

(c) (d)

(e) (f)

Figure (7). Gutenberg-Richter relations for the areal seismic sources: (a) MAS_02&03, (b)

MAS_10&11, (c) MAS_15&16, (d) MAS_17&18, (e) MAS_19, 20&21, and (e)MAS_22.




12

(a) (b)

(c)

Figure (8). Gutenberg-Richter relations for the fault sources (a) SGSMM_02, (b) SGSMS01-04, and (c) KK03.

Estimation of

maximum

earthquake

potentials

The magnitude of the earthquake potential is another important seismic source

parameter in seismic hazard analysis. This parameter was estimated for areal seismic sources

and fault sources separately. For areal seismic sources, maximum likelihood method of Kijko

(2004) was used and the relationship is as follow:

)exp()}]exp(/{)}()([{ min22211maxmax nmnn E n E mm obs−+−−+= β Eq. 2

where, E 1( z ) = {( z 2 + a1 z + a2)/ [ z ( z

2 + b1 z + b2)]} exp (-z ) Eq. 3

n1 = n / {1 - exp [- β (mmax - mmin)]} Eq. 4n2 = n1 exp [- β (mmax - mmin)] Eq. 5

in which n is the number of earthquakes ≥ mmin, β = 10 Logb, a1 = 2.334733, a2 = 0.250621,

b1 = 3.330657, and b2 = 1.681534.

It must be noted that Eq. 2 does not constitute a direct estimator for mmax since

expressions n1 and n2, which appear on the right-hand side of the equation, also contain mmax




13

and the maximum earthquake potential, mmax is obtained by the iterative solution of Eq. 2.

However, mmax can be obtained without interaction when mmax - mmin ≤ 2, and n ≥ 100, the

parameter mmax in n1 and n2 can be replaced by mmax(obs), (Kijko, 2004). The resulted

maximum earthquake potentials for each areal seismic source are represented in Table (2).

In estimating the maximum earthquake magnitudes for fault sources, the empiricalrelationships of the fault (rupture) length and the magnitude shown in Table (1) are used. The

results are listed in Table (2).

Table (1) The empirical relation of the fault (rupture) length and the earthquake magnitude

Relationship Authors

Ms = 2 log L + 1.33 log ∆σ + 1.66 (Mohammadioun & Serva, 2001)

M = (LogL+6.4)/1.13 (Ambraseys and Zatopek, 1968)

M = 2.0 logLmax + 3.5 (Iida, 1965)

M = 1.7 LogL + 4.8 (Matsuda, 1977)

a1* mmax= (logL+1.86)/0.5 (Papazachos et al., 2004)

a2* mmax= (logL+2.3)/0.59

M= (LogL+1.9)/0.5 Inoue et al. (1993)

L = 2W (Cheng and Cheng, 1989)

∆σ N = 10.6 W0.5 (Mohammadioun & Serva, 2001)∆σSS = 10.6 W0.8 (Mohammadioun & Serva, 2001)

ΔσR = 10.6 W1.6 (Mohammadioun & Serva, 2001)a1* For oblique faults (σ=0.13, 6.0≤M≤7.5)

a2* For strike-slip faults(σ=0.14, 6.0≤M≤8.0)

Estimation of earthquake recurrence rate

The recurrence rate of the lower bound magnitude earthquake for each seismic source,

which is used in calculating the seismic hazard, ground motion parameter is determined by

the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relation and the results are displayed in Table (2). The focal

depth of the earthquake potential which is the other seismic source parameter is also

estimated based on the depth of the previous earthquakes.




14

Table (2) Seismic source parameters of each seismic sources; fault specific sources and arealseismic sources (M0 =5.5 for all fault sources and 5 for all areal seismic sources).

No Sources Mmax β λ F

1 SGSMM02_SG02 7.8 1.2692 0.0763 152 SGSMS01 7.9 0.6977 0.0486 153 SGSMS02 7.8 1.2388 0.1706 154 SGSMS03 7.8 1.2388 0.1706 155 SGSMS04 7.8 1.2388 0.1706 156 KK03 8.1 1.2319 0.0117 157 MAS_02A 7.6 1.6194 0.7874 808 MAS_02B 7.6 1.6194 0.7874 459 MAS_03 7.6 1.6194 0.7874 15

10 MAS_10 8.2 1.6229 0.2780 1511 MAS-11 8.2 1.6229 0.2780 15

12 MAS_15 7.2 1.3548 0.3336 1513 MAS_16 7.2 1.3548 0.3336 1514 MAS_17 9.1 1.6636 0.4855 1515 MAS_18 9.1 1.6636 0.4855 1516 MAS_19 6.6 2.2227 0.1321 1517 MAS_20 6.6 2.2227 0.1321 1518 MAS_21 6.6 2.2227 0.1321 1519 MAS_22 7.2 1.4649 0.1208 15

Attenuation Relationship

The seismic hazard which is represented by the ground motion is calculated by

utilizing the predictive attenuation equation. The attenuation relation used in conducting

PSHA for this area is the relationship developed by Takahashi et al. (2000) and can be

expressed by the equation described below and represented by the graph in Figure (9).

k h

dM

w S hec X bX aM Y w+−+⋅+−−= δ )20()10(log)(log 1010 Eq. 6

in which Y is peak ground acceleration in gal, M w is moment magnitude, X is source distance

(km), h is focal depth (km), δh = 0 (h<20) or 1 (h≥20), S k is constant for the site condition,

and a, b, c, d and e are the constants.




15

Figure (9). The graph of peak ground acceleration attenuation (Takahashi et al., 2000).

Site

Characterization

Since the ground motion parameters are greatly depends on the surface geology, the

surface condition in Yangon Region is characterized based on the existing bore-hole data in

Yangon, the geological map of Myanmar, that of Yangon and soil map of Myanmar. The

bore-hole data are obtained at around 40 sites in Yangon, from that the SPT values are

transformed to shear wave velocity profile by using the empirical relation of Sadish et al.

(1997). The soil types are then determined by using UBC (uniform building code) shown in

Table (3). Some of the bore-hole data are obtained till 30m, although some are just around

15m in depth. Therefore the average shear wave velocity in 30m are attained from some

bore-hole, it is still required to carry out farther more for site characterization. Based on the

available data and geological information, the subsurface soils are classified as rock and

medium soil type in Yangon Region (Figure 10).




16

Table (3) Subsurface soil classification according to UBC (uniform building code)

Ground Description Sv30 (m/s)

Hard Rock >1500

Rock 760 – 1500

Very dense soil and soft rock 360 – 760

Stiff soil (Medium soil) 180 – 360

Soft soil <180

Figure (10). The site condition map of Yangon Region

Calculation

of

the

Seismic

Hazard

The seismic hazard is calculated for Yangon Region in grid interval of 0.1 ̊ x 0.1 ̊ for

both rock sites and by implementing the subsurface conditions (Figure 11). The seismic

hazards are calculated for 10% probability of exceedance in 10, 20, 50, and 100 years and

represented in term of peak ground acceleration.




17

Figure (11) Map of the sites locations in 0.1 ̊ x 0.1 ̊ grid interval, where the seismic hazards arecalculated.

The seismic hazard maps (peak ground acceleration in rock condition) for Yangon

Region are depicted in Figures 12 – 15. The PSHA map of peak ground acceleration (pga)

expected in 10% probability of 10 years on rock condition is represented in Figure (12). The

maximum pga value is obtained as 0.150 g and the minimum one is 0.018g. Therefore, forthis recurrence interval, the maximum seismic hazard area corresponds to the eastern part of

Yangon Region while the lowest hazard areas belong to the eastern margin of the Region and

the western portion and northern portion. The pga map predictable in 10% probability of

exceedance in 20 years is illustrated in Figure (13). In this recurrence interval, the maximum

seismic hazard zone comprise the eastern portion of Yangon Region with value of 0.29g,

while the minimum hazard area are in south-western portion and the eastern margin with the

value of 0.031g. The pga map anticipated for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years can

be observed in Figure (14). While it is acquired as the maximum pga value of 0.25g,representing the area of eastern portion of the Region, the minimum pga value is attained as

0.041g, comprising the central and southern portion of the Region. Moreover, the northern

portion also involves in the moderate seismic hazard zone with the pga value of 0.125g.




18

Figure (12) Probabilistic seismic hazard (pga) map of Yangon Region expected at 10% in 10years on rock.





19






20

Figure (15) demonstrates the pga map expected for 10% probability of 100 years. In

this hazard map, it can be seen that the maximum hazard zone also embraces the eastern

portion with value of 0.275g. The seismic hazard zone distribution pattern is similar with that

of pga map in 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The moderate pga value is 0.2g in

the northern portion and the minimum one is 0.047g which is in the southern portion of theRegion.

The seismic hazards are also calculated for Yangon Region by involving the site

conditions (surface geology). Those hazard maps are paraded in Figures 16-19. The pga map

with 10% probability of exceedance in 10 years is displayed in Figure (16). The maximum

pga value is obtained as 0.30 which belongs to eastern portion of the Region and the

minimum one is 0.02g. Figure (17) exposes the pga map of 10% probability of exceedance in

20 years, in which the maximum pga consequence is 0.35g and the minimum one is 0.03g,

while Figure (18) depict the pga map with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, in

which the maximum pga is 0.45g and the minimum 0.05g. The pga map with 10% probability

of exceedance in 100 years is shown in Figure (19) and the highest pga value is procured as

0.55g and the lowest one is 0.06g.




21

Figure (16) Probabilistic seismic hazard (pga) map of Yangon Region with 10% in 10 years(The site conditions are embraced).





22


Figure (19) Probabilistic seismic hazard (pga) map of Yangon Region with 10% in 100 years(The site conditions are embraced)




23

Discussion

and

Conclusion

The most significant seismic sources for Yangon Region are the subduction zone of

Indo-Australia – Burma plates and the Sagaing fault. Hazard is the highest in the area along

the Sagaing fault. The most contribution of the seismic hazard to Yangon Region is resulted

from the Sagaing fault since the source – to – site distance is closer than those from other

source and the recurrence rate is also high for the large earthquake. The second – most

influence seismic sources are the areal seismic sources of MAS_21 from where the intraplate

earthquakes can be originated and MAS_22 which occupies the West Bago Yoma fault, and

Gwegyo Thrust because the source – to – site distances from these sources are also close

although the recurrence rate is low for the high magnitude earthquakes. Although the

Kyaukkyan fault caused the largest earthquake in Myanmar, the 8.1 Magnitude, May 23,

1912 event, because of its low recurrence rate of large earthquake and distant source – to –

site distance from that fault, the small influence of this source cause this region negligible

seismic hazard. Even though tectonically the second – most significant seismic source rather

than Sagaing fault for this region is the subduction zone of the Indo – Australia Plate and

Burma Plate, the seismic sources (MAS_17, 18, 19 and 20) from this also result the low

seismic hazard because they occur far from the site. However, the recurrence rate of large

earthquakes from the sources MAS_17 and 18 are high and those from sources MAS_19 and

20 are low. The other one is the Andaman Rift zone (seismic sources: MAS_15 and 16) also

contribute the low seismic hazard to this region due to the distal source from the site.For the present region, there are some issues that are still needed to carry out,

concerned with fault parameters such as slip rate and recurrence rate of certain large

earthquake by performing the paleoseismic analysis. For the site characterization in this

seismic hazard analysis, the bore-hole data used are very diminutive in amount (around 30

bore-holes), some are in shallow depth. Therefore it is still required to conduct the site

characterization process.

Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful Myanmar Engineering Society (MES), Myanmar Geoscience

Society (MGS) and Myanmar Earthquake Committee (MEC) for the support to carry out this

research.




24

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seismic hazard assessment

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