see.think.act. trends in transportation and logistics · disruption: auto industry changes...

© ZF Friedrichshafen AG Internal

See.Think.Act. Trends in Transportation and Logistics Gerhard Gumpoltsberger | DAV


1995 - 2005 2005 - 2015 2015 - 2025

Digitization of Data Connecting – Internet

Digital Infrastructure is growing– Computer / Telecommunication / Content

Connected Consumers Digitization of Transactions – Trade,

Banks

Social Networks

Mobile & Sharing Systems

Connected Machines Internet of Things – Automotive, Aero,

Industry, Energy

Automation of processes and decisions based on algorithms

TRIGGERS

AFFECTED

Digitalization – 3rd Phase Begins

2 2018-12-05 | DAV | See.Think.Act. Trends in Transportation and Logistics

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Disruption: Auto Industry Changes 2015-2030


On-demand

mobility will

inflect with

driverless and

connected

vehicles entering

the market over

the next 4-6 years

Driverless cars

will enable new

shared-

ownership

business models

Connected cars

and big data will

enable new revenue

and efficiency

streams throughout

the life of the car

The cost of electric

vehicles will reach

parity with internal

combustion

vehicles by 2025

The cost of electric

vehicles will reach

parity with internal

combustion

vehicles by 2025


Disruption: Auto Industry Changes until 2023

2018-12-05 | DAV | See.Think.Act. Trends in Transportation and Logistics

Build automated capability, test it and start validating it.

Validate, certify and launch rideshare „robotaxi“ in a geo-fenced zone

„robotaxi“ beyond a geo-fenced zone and entry of personal driverless cars

© Citigroup


Autonomous Vehicles Autonomous

Transport Systems

5

Digital Products und Services accelerate Market Transformation



Traditional OEMs are becoming Mobility Service Providers and supporting Changes in the Value Chain


Strategic partnership/investment in the automotive environment: • OEMs • Logistics • Technology Companies


AD is a Disruptive Factor for Changes in the Value Chain in the Supplier Industry

end customer

individual vehicle

Transport as a Service TaaS

traditional OEMs

Traditional value chain

Future value chain in the range of AD

Tier 1 supplier

AD fleet owner

AD vehicle manufacturer

The mapped companies are entitled not to completeness, but are to be seen as an excerpt of the most important players


© ZF Friedrichshafen AG Internal © ZF Friedrichshafen AG 8 2018-12-05 | DAV | See.Think.Act. Trends in Transportation and Logistics

Market Access: e.Go usp approach

© ZF Friedrichshafen AG Internal © ZF Friedrichshafen AG 10 2018-12-05 | DAV | See.Think.Act. Trends in Transportation and Logistics

Prospects on New Mobility Solutions e2GO – Park & e.Ride

© ZF Friedrichshafen AG Internal © ZF Friedrichshafen AG

Prospects on New Mobility Solutions



Las Vegas

Paris Zug Wien

Dubai

Singapur

Tokio

Shenzhen

Melbourne

Helsinki Stockholm

Atlanta

Taipeh

Monticelli, Minnesota

Perth

Tochigi Bloomington, Indiana

Talinn

Detroit, Michigan

Lausanne

Trikala

Wageningen

Milton Keynes

Frankfurt

Leverkusen

Berlin

München

Bad Birnach

Hamburg

Sylt

Monheim

Stuttgart Karlsruhe

London

San Franciscso

Published AD-People Mover Activities



Which Cities are Ready for the Change?


„Push and pull factors determine which cities are likley to experience the greatest disruption“

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investement Research


Strategic Market Segments of Autonomous Driving


Passenger Car Commercial Vehicles People &

Cargo Mover Industry

Automation

Traditional OEMs car manufacturer with business model to end customer

Comm. Vehicle OEMs and Fleet Owners

HCV / LCV manufacturer with business model to fleet owners Fleet owners

Ride Hailing

People and Cargo Purpose Built Vehicles

PBV manufacturer with business model to fleet owners, cities, mobility providers

Transport as a service providers

TaaS as business model to end customers no fleet ownership low asset valuation

Automated Operation

Automation as cost reduction factor highly diversified market


Autonomous

Electric

Cargo Mover

New Mobility/Transportation Concepts


Autonomous

Electric

People Mover


Transport Systems in the Logistics Chain



Shaping Smart Logistics – Autonomous Depot



Shaping Smart Logistics – Last Mile Delivery


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see.think.act. trends in transportation and logistics · disruption: auto industry changes...

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