Seeing the Dream:Social Mobility, Social Indicators and

Data

Community Indicators ConsortiumWashington DC, 29th September 2014

Richard V. Reeves Policy Director, Center on Children and Families,

The Brookings Institution

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Top Lines

• Conceptual clarity comes first:

- What is the American Dream?

- Equality of what?• Select the right data: bring it to life• Words are good, too• Highlighting mobility with indicators: the UK

experiment• The US mobility challenge• Listen to O’Keefe

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What is the American Dream?Horatio Alger’s version

“In this free country poverty in early life is no bar to a man’s advancement. … Save your money, my lad, buy books, and determine to be somebody,” Mr Whitney to ‘Ragged Dick’, 1868

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Pres. Obama’s Version (and of course, that of every President before him)…

“I renew my commitment to the basic bargain that built this country – the idea that if you work hard and meet your responsibilities, you can get ahead, no matter where you come from…”

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What is the American Dream?

• Shared prosperity?• Rising living standards?• A strong middle class?• No poverty?• Fair treatment?• Meritocracy?• High rates of relative mobility?

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Equality of What? Careful Not to Just Pick Your Measure…

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My Version of the American Dream,

In Lego…

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http://www.brookings.edu/research/essays/2014/saving-horatio-

alger

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3. Words are Good, Too…

Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.

Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met on a great battle-field of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field, as a final resting place for those who here gave their lives that that nation might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this.

But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate -- we can not consecrate -- we can not hallow -- this ground. The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us -- that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion -- that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain -- that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom -- and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.

• Abraham Lincoln• November 19, 1863

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Or, this…

http://www.norvig.com/Gettysburg/index.htm

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Social Mobility Seizes the UK

“We both want a Britain where social mobility is unlocked; where everyone, regardless of background, has the chance to rise as high as their talents and ambition allow them” – Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, Foreword to the Coalition Agreement, May 2010

“This waste of talent, this squandering of human potential, this grotesque failure to give all our fellow citizens an equal chance is a reproach to our conscience. It can’t be allowed to continue. And under this Government the injustice will end”- Secretary of State for Education, October 2011

“I believe inequality shouldn’t be handed down, generation to generation, like the colour of our hair. – Ed Miliband, 2012

“This is not to say that everybody’s life is determined from day one. But it is clear that the odds are stacked against some of those newborns, and in favour of others. And when that is the case, we are not just talking about inequality, but about what amounts to social segregation. Social segregation occurs when inequalities become frozen across time, when people are trapped in the position of their birth. – Nick Clegg, 2010

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Leading to a UK commitment …

• The Government’s focus is on improving inter-generational relative social mobility:

See download.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/social-mobility/opening-doors-breaking-barriers.pdf

“A fair society is an open society, one in which every individual is free to succeed. That is why improving social mobility is the principal goal of the Government’s social policy” – Opening Doors, Breaking Barriers Executive Summary, April 2011

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Five Principles for Social Mobility

A long-term view

A progressive approach

Government does not have all the answers

A ruthlessly evidence based approach

A life-cycle approach

Social mobility is, by definition, a long-term challenge. The Government’s investment and policy decisions will reflect that. There are no quick fixes.

Resources will be focused on those from disadvantaged backgrounds while narrowing opportunity gaps all the way up the income scale

Improving social mobility requires the whole of society to play its part. The strategy challenges Government and wider society to do better, supported by greater accountability and transparency

Effort and finance will be channelled in the ways that evidence tells us makes most difference to social mobility – particularly essential in a time of fiscal constraint where we must do more with less

Policies need to impact across the life-cycle to make a difference – from the Foundation Years, through school life and the key transitions from education into the working world

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Leading Indicators of Success

Indicator Sub-indicators Department

1. Low Birth Weight Low Birth Weight (disadvantage gap) DH

2. Child Development Child development at age 2½ (TBC) DH

Gap in school readiness at age 5 DfE

3. School Attainment Attainment of Level 4 at KS2 (FSM gap) DfE

Attainment of “the basics” at GCSE (FSM gap) DfE

Attainment of “the basics” at GCSE (deprived school gap) DfE

Attainment by 19 of children in state and independent schools (AAB at A level) DfE

4. Employment and participation in education (age 18-24)

18-24 year olds participating in (full or part-time) education or training (disadvantage gap) BIS

18-24 year olds not in full-time education or training who are workless (disadvantage gap) DWP

5. Further Education Percentage achieving a level 3 qualification by age 19 (FSM gap) DfE

6. Higher Education Progression of pupils aged 15 to HE at age 19 (FSM gap) BIS

Progression of pupils to the 33% most selective HE institutions (state/independent school gap) BIS

Destinations from higher education (disadvantage gap) BIS

7. Social Mobility in Adulthood

Access to the professions (disadvantage gap) BIS/DWP

Progression in the labour market (wage progression) BIS/DWP

Second chances in the labour market (post-19 basic skills) BIS/DWP

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Achievement at age 11 – progress% with Level 4 English & Maths, Key Stage 2, by FSM/non-FSM

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From top schools to top colleges% progressing to one of top third most selective universities, by school

type

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College Works% graduates in full-time ‘graduate job’ + 6 months by social background -earning parent).

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How good are the indicators?Paul Gregg & Lindsay Macmillian, ESRC, Britain in 2012

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Mobility: A Policy Architecture

Commitment to Goal

Definition & Measurement

Institutional Accountability

Executive Sponsorship

* High-level, clear commitment to mobility as target ie. “improving social mobility is the principal goal of the Government’s social policy”

• Clarity on definition: ie. Intergenerational, relative mobility by income and occupation • Support for data to measure long-term trends: Government support for the 2012 birth cohort study (following Millenium Cohort Study of 2000)• Seven ‘leading indicators’ of mobility & sub-indicators, published annually

• Creation of statutory, independent Commission on Social Mobility & Child Poverty, reporting annually to Parliament “on the progress being made by government and wider society in improving social mobility…”• Commission undertaking issue-specific reports (ie. HE access, professions)• Chaired by senior Labour figure (Alan Milburn, ex-Cabinet Minister)

• Standing Ministerial Group on Social Mobility, Chaired by DPM•‘Social Mobility’ test on all new policies or policy changes•APPG on Social Mobility, All-Party

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The US Challenge: ‘Schools Smarts’Cognitive Gaps Open Up Early…

Halle et al, Child Trends, 2009

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‘Schools Smarts’Richer kids do well on tests…

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q50%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Above Average Test Scores, by Income Quintile

Age 3/4 PPVT (CNLSY)

Age 13/14 PIAT (CNLSY)

Age 15-18 AFQT (NSLY79)

Family Income Quintile Around Time of Test

Pro

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Th

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of

Ab

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‘Schools Smarts’ …while poor kids struggle

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q50%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Below Average Test Scores, by Income Quintile

Age 3/4 PPVT (CNLSY)

Age 13/14 PIAT (CNLSY)

Age 15-18 AFQT (NSLY79)

Family Income Quintile Around Time of Test

Pro

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Bo

tto

m T

hir

d o

f A

bili

ty

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Higher EducationMobility Rates by College Degree

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Higher EducationFraction of students completing college, projected

Source: Author’s tabulations and Martha J. Bailey and Susan M. Dynarski, “Inequality in Postsecondary Education,” in Whither Opportunity? Rising Inequality, Schools, and Children’s Life Chances, edited by Greg Duncan and Richard Murnane (New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 2011), p. 117-132.

Lowest Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile Highest Quartile0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.05

0.14

0.170.09

0.21

0.32

0.24

0.44

1961-1964 birth cohorts

1979-1982 birth cohorts

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Higher EducationFraction of students completing college, actual

Source: Author’s tabulations and Martha J. Bailey and Susan M. Dynarski, “Inequality in Postsecondary Education,” in Whither Opportunity? Rising Inequality, Schools, and Children’s Life Chances, edited by Greg Duncan and Richard Murnane (New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 2011), p. 117-132.

Lowest Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile Highest Quartile

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.05

0.14

0.17

0.36

0.09

0.21

0.32

0.54

0.24

0.44

1961-1964 birth cohorts

1979-1982 birth cohorts

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The O’Keefe Approach

• Select• Simplify• Amplify

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So What?

• Equal opportunity part of America’s DNA• Falling a long way short• Capturing right long-term measures (RIGISM)• Finding and projecting ‘leading indicators’ of

success• Good data, well presented, can change the

debate

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@richardvreeves