18 December 2013/January 2014 | Homeland Security Today Magazine

Shut System

In five years … or less, many access control systems will be legend … and the security issues could be legion.

19Homeland Security Today Magazine | December 2013/January 2014

bsolescence through time is proceeding to shut down existing securitysystems from further product or technical support right before our veryeyes. By 2015, the computerization of electronics will have increased thecapacity of integrated circuits one million fold in just 30 years’ time.

Electronic chips are already more than three million times lighter and10,000 times cheaper than an equivalent device 30 years ago. But even with

this substantial increase in miniaturization, memory management, memory capacity,cloud services and virtualization of the legacy personal computer (PC), the basic X86processor is still the same old device of 40 years ago. This will pose serious and fun-damental problems for access control and other security systems by 2018 because ofthis simple reality of life cycle and the consequent costs to continue interim softwaredevelopment until the next X86 version processor is developed.

By 2018, more than 50 percent of all card access systems deployed today will haveno support. Nor will replacement parts be available. Nor will the licensing model of In-ternet protocol (IP) cameras be the same as it is today. IP cameras, encoders and net-work video recorders/storage area networks (NVRs/SANs) will all be changed and mayno longer be supported. And if that isn’t enough, the networks required to supportthese systems will evermore change, become evermore secure, evermore hardenedand evermore apt for a failure to occur network-wide.

In this same short time span, a paradigm shift in public safety technologies willoccur. And little has been done — or is being done — to warn about these importantchanges. By 2018, 3-D satellite modeling, geo-located infrastructure, a quadrupling ofavailable field sensors, identification credentialing, biometrics and physical securityintegration management will outpace our physical ability to manage alarms and in-cidents on a knowledge-based level the same way we do today.

OBY JERRY “DUTCH” FORSTATER, CONTRIBUTING WRITER

Down

C R I T I C A L I N F R A S T R U C T U R E S E C U R I T Y

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Others

>80%

Others

>80%Access Devices Using Wiegand CommunicationProtocol

Critical System Security Components Still Using 1970’s Technologies

X86 BasedProcessors

Source: G. I. Forstater©, 2013

Major access control systems manufacturers today are pittedagainst managing old data gathering panels, multiplexed electronics,legacy software, Weigand-based wiring, positive identification, digitalcommunications and cyber constraints with mounting technicalchallenges. Many analog switch-based — and now vintage 2005-eradigital closed-circuit TV systems — will also find themselves islandsin a non-interoperable world, at least in part because of hardware,but more often because of rewriting of software code that preventsoptimization. And it’s entirely due to software that’s designed for thelegacy X86 microprocessor manufactured continuously since 1979.

The X86 is the heart of most machines. The microprocessorpumps, regulates, synchronizes and generally acts like the con-ductor of a micro-miniature orchestra with 64 instruments, con-ducting up to 20 or more scores at once, at a speed that 20 yearsago seemed a far-flung reality.

If you’ve ever touched a computer — no matter what brand ormodel — this tiny machine no bigger than a silver dollar has in-tertwined its reputation into your soul. It’s known by many aliases,such as 286, 386, Pentium and the server’s X86 version — the Xeon.All the while, though, newer PCs and mobile devices still base thei3, i5, i7 and even 2006 Core Duo technology on the X86. The X86is, essentially, the ‘79 vintage Ford Mustang of the industry.

And it needs software to complement it — lots of it — and allcoded as in the old days. While normally not written in DOS (itsold “shell”) the shadow of this workhorse still resides inside —tamed but now restless from relentless improvement.

By 2025, machine knowledge will exceed human knowledge.With life expectancy approaching almost 90 years by this time, itwill mean an increase in the workforce and an increase in humantransportation needs. This could mean an average three-fold in-crease in ridership on public transportation in less than 15 years.

It will also mean inherent security and safety risks, because by2050, one in three people in the world will live in areas prone tonatural or manmade disaster. Urbanization, migration and geo-pol-itics will continuously influence public safety, corporate and home-land security’s systems capabilities to comprehensively managerising oceanographic waters, severe temperatures, earthquakes,storm effects, nuclear disaster, fossil fuel damage, clean water andfood shortages.

The concept of Big Brother watching us is now entirely ele-mentary. We’re actually installing sophisticated sensors, whetherthey are video cameras or monitors, of endless varieties. Andthey’re all computers. And the relative number of them using so-phisticated technologies has risen by the millions since 1975.

Yet, even with the X86 microprocessor that’s used in 80 percentof computers, production of the microprocessor leveled off for PCsby almost 5 percent in 2013 as a result of mobile devices. Mean-while, pure IP platform video and/or sensor production has multi-plied dramatically. It may well be that for each PC/server deployed,more than 10 times that number will be deployed as IP-based videocameras or microcomputer sensor devices with the capability todecipher critical scene or environmental data in its microproces-sor without forwarding irrelevant, spurious “noise.”

From bad to worseFew want change. It’s like the mechanic who says fixing it willcause more problems. Well, if that’s the case, then it’s probablytime for a complete overhaul. The following are a few case studiesthat illustrate the extant problem of technology “sunsets.”

As recently as 2010, a nuclear power plant was recording 30,000false alarms per month, with a tendency to lock up its 1987 com-puter when a history query was performed. Its memory — the size

THE CONCEPT OF BIG BROTHER WATCHING US IS NOW ENTIRELY ELEMENTARY. WE’REACTUALLY INSTALLING SOPHISTICATED SENSORS, WHETHER THEY ARE VIDEO CAMERAS OR

MONITORS, OF ENDLESS VARIETIES. AND THEY’RE ALL COMPUTERS. AND THE RELATIVE NUMBER OFTHEM USING SOPHISTICATED TECHNOLOGIES HAS RISEN BY THE MILLIONS SINCE 1975.“

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Life CycleAsset Analysis ClassificationExisting

AssetsRedefined

Assets

New Aquisition

New Life Cycle

Forward Compatible

No EOL in Near Future

In-But-OutEOL < 4 Years

EOL > 3 Years Ago

EOL > 10 Years Ago

Escalation of Assets Replacement Model (EARM)

Legacy

Terminal

Terminal

Existing System Assets

Redefined SystemAssets

X

Source: G. I. Forstater©, 2013

of a large microwave with LP record-type spinning platters — wasso old it was considered an eBay collectable in 2000.

There’s the police department that had two-dozen digital videorecorders all lacking time synchronization, making evidentiarychain of custody evidence questionable.

Consider the government agency with thousands of card holderswho basically didn’t exist anymore, and whose administrative ac-cess control system will be a thing of the past in a matter of years.Moreover, the manufacturer is “declining” any usable or sensible mi-gration paths, abandoning them with no life raft … or preserver.

Finally, when trying to incorporate a myriad of technologies,there’s the airport that loaded the latest patch and security up-date for its switches, but failed to realize the update was not codedcorrectly and lost particular settings that were necessary for op-eration, bringing the system to a slow grind.

Contrast these obstacles with what the near future has in store.By 2020, small “drone” probes — flying video cameras — will eco-nomically and silently patrol critical infrastructure, pre pro-grammed for the inside of buildings, corridors, offices andmechanical spaces. They may even sense fire, water, temperature,

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smoke, people, pests and obstacles. They’ll be launched at eachlocation from a “home base” where they’re charged and receivemaintenance and upgrades. They’ll even diagnose their own healthand replace their own batteries. They’ll be a force multiplier if everthere was one.

Virtual alarm rooms will also appear more frequently. Theserooms will envelop operators and provide a uniform video struc-ture that is seemingly endless, with true visual perspective. Seam-less and up to 100 inches tall, the wraparound polymer screenswill be able to dimensionally show the corporate enterprise orcityscape as virtual video. It’ll provide a fly-by-wire approach tovirtualization, incorporating commands through verbal and non-verbal communication with the computer. Most important, thecomputer will now be the analytical tool used to determine alarmsand processing of information.

Now imagine a neural network of computers — actually cam-eras with the power of computers 1,000 times more powerful thanthose on Apollo 11, the first manned spacecraft to land on themoon — all connected to a stream filter that not only connects thedots, but learns from us and then teaches us. Massachusetts-basedWorcester Polytechnic Institute’s Database Systems ResearchGroup (DSRG) is investigating how these technologies can prepareus for stream filtering information.

Elke Rundensteiner, a DSRG professor, said “We’ve got to filterdown through the fire hose of data” to “scale to big data streamsand on the other hand not miss any critical nugget.”

Will we be able to fix legacy problems, incorporate more tech-nically diverse applications and drink from the fire hose of datawhile still relying on older microprocessor designs?

AnalysisWith the advent of newer, more reliable and improved sensors andthe need to manage sustainable security or public safety systems,the next five years is the right time to exercise the planning of asustainable migration path — whatever the microprocessor, chipor computer’s new name or namesake.

Important decisions need to be made about evaluating supportand funding of existing systems or software before acquiring newtechnology. Any legacy system greater than 15 years old needs tobe identified as to whether it’s nearing its end of life and will ter-minate in the immediate future. End of life for a potentially termi-nated system could also exist for anything that has not receiveddirect original equipment manufacturer support for three years orlonger. These are the two most significant decisions with costlycontinued support issues.

The next two decisions involve supported and forward-compatiblesystems — systems that have an end of life greater than four yearsfrom now or no determination for end of life. Investing additionalmoney into technology for these systems makes the most sense.

But be forewarned: Even new acquisitions can have a downsidewhen manufacturers merge, are acquired by larger corporate

takeovers or lose the strategic edge due to market climate. In manyinstances, high technology investments have faltered due to sup-port or manufacturers’ corporate disintegration.

When can we expect new operating systems and software to bedeveloped? When the labor required to produce the hardware withall the sensor, input, output, communications and security codesand tightly embed them into easily programmable and expandablechips — is close to zero. Perhaps a consortium that has the money,willpower and desire to use artificial intelligence will provide thenext design. It will be sometime before computers design new cir-cuits, “grow” silicon and nanotube circuits, assemble the compo-nents and program themselves.

It’s in the nation’s fundamental interest to develop this nextprocessor and programming masterwork in the United States. Thiswill provide us with manufacturing preeminence, stiff security andencryption code development with the intrinsic ability to incor-porate a sensor-driven world onto our own — saving lives, reduc-ing crime and helping us prepare to maintain our technologyleadership into the 21st century. HST

Jerry “Dutch” Forstater is CEO, COO andchief engineer of Professional SystemsEngineering LLC, which he founded in1986 and which is nationally known for itsexpertise in design and engineering ofintegrated systems for complex criticalinfrastructure projects. He is boardmember of the International Association

of Professional Security Consultants (IAPSC) and secretary ofthe Philadelphia chapter of ASIS International.

u Learn more on this subject at www.HSToday.us

WITH THE ADVENT OF NEWER, MORERELIABLE AND IMPROVED SENSORS AND

THE NEED TO MANAGE SUSTAINABLE SECURITYOR PUBLIC SAFETY SYSTEMS, THE NEXT FIVEYEARS IS THE RIGHT TIME TO EXERCISE THEPLANNING OF A SUSTAINABLE MIGRATION PATH— WHATEVER THE MICROPROCESSOR, CHIP ORCOMPUTER’S NEW NAME OR NAMESAKE.

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