Security implications of future Security implications of future water use in Western Balkans: water use in Western Balkans:

challenge of hydropower challenge of hydropower developmentdevelopment

Aims of the project• Study will encourage future discussions and actions in

Western Balkans by providing explorative analyses of possible security implications of future water use in the region with the focus on hydropower development.

• Security implications:• Water availability for human use, environment related, extreme events, food

security, energy security, health, conflicts

• Study will also bring in the assessment the stakeholders vision of hydropower development in the region in the context of different possible threats and risk arising from explorative scenarios.

• Study will reflect on management options

present

STATE

of water resources

THREATS and RISKS

Scenarios:

1 The good society

2 Techno garden in Balkans

3 Run to the hills

4Downward spiralClim

ate

chan

ge im

pact

s

Eco

nom

ic d

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opm

ent

FUTURE

water resources use

Desired vision of hydropower development

(stakeholders workshop)

SUMMARRY

What does desired HP development mean for 7 modules of security implications?

RESPONSE

management options of risks •management of water resources in conjunction to renewable energy planning

•economic connection between water and power resources (prising…)

•green economy

Project plan• Timing: October 2012-December 2013

• ETC Water and EEA

• Forward-looking assessment method:– Use of existing scenarios

• built at stakeholders workshop in 2010 on cc impacts and water availability (EEA/OSCE)

– Stakeholders vision on hydropower development (use of visions canvas tool)

• 2 workshops: – January 2013: scenarios refinement and vision building (30

participants - 3 per WB country, Slovenia-tbc)– May/June 2013: key messages (10 participants, place tbd)

• Report for countries consultation September/October 2013 and publication December 2013

Rational for thematic focus• Water use and climate change impacts are common

denominators for many possible security threats identified in studies: EEA, UNEP,EEA-OSCE, WWF

• Hydropower development is of utmost interest of the international corporations and financial institutions

• Hydropower development is major driver for development in many WB countries (Montenegro, BiH)

• Hydropower development is accompanied by the risks to environment (river ecosystems, protected natural areas)

Hydropower plants collide with areas of high natural value

Poverty Negative developmentDeteriorated environmentHigh water scarcity Extreme events not managed leading to negative development

Poverty,HopelessnessEcosystems recoveryDrinking water deficit, scarcity in general Water use in agriculture mainly

EqualityQuite high quality of lifeGood knowledge baseGood environment managementIntegrated water management Strong policiesCross border agreements,Renewable energy dominating

Green and richerCan tackle intensive resource use Controlled, technology drivenGround water drop Import of water from Russia Energy dependent on imports

Scenarios as an explorative framework for impact of climate change to water availability in Western Balkan region, OSCE-EEA 2010

1 The good society

2Techno garden in

Balkans

3 Run to the hills

4Downward spiral

Clim

ate

chan

ge im

pact

s

Eco

nom

ic d

evel

opm

ent

D r i v i n g f o r c e s

SCENARIOS

WATER USE

HP DEVELOPMENT

SECURITY IMPLICATIONS:Water availability for human useEnvironment relatedExtreme eventsFood securityHealthconflicts

Looking from the present to the future

STATEof water resources:Big potential for HP

THREATS and RISKS

Manifested through 4 scenarios

FUTUREwater resources use

4 scenarios

SUMMARRY

What does desired HP development mean for 7 modules of security implications?

RESPONSEto vision in the context of 4 scenarios

Desired vision for HP

Looking from the future to the present